Trot Nixon's future.

[Cocos Disciples]

Shouldn't trade him, Wily Mo might not even be back and at full strength at July 31. Just get the 2 draft picks via arbitration offer and be happy. We couldn't get a top notch prospect for him straight up anyway.

[jsinger121]

If the Red Sox decide not to bring him back, I would doubt that they have made a final decision about that in July, so I don't think they would be desperate to unload him at the trading deadline.

 

I never said to trade him at the deadline and they shouldn't. All I said was to offer arbitration to net the draft picks because its doubtful he is brought back.

[RoyNHSox]

Trot has obviously never been a free agent. If it comes to the point that he decides to test the market, I’m curious what kind of offers he’d get.

[a700hitter]

Hopefully, it will not come to that. I'd like to see a 2-year extension for reasonable dough--14-16 million.

[jsinger121]

Nixon is not a 7-8 million dollar a year player anymore.

[RoyNHSox]

nixon isnt accepting a 1year deal and probably nothing short of 3/20,000,000.00

 

I'd say this seems about reasonable...3 years/$20M.

[seabeachfred]

I'd say this seems about reasonable...3 years/$20M.

 

Roy and the rest of you out there, if Nixon will be reasonable in his demands and prove he wants to stay with the Red Sox and gives us a home town discount I think we can come up with a two year contract and an option year for about six or seven mil a year. If he suddenly gets stars in his eyes and thinks he is worthy of a big payday then it is adios. I think he will be reasonable. Unlike some dirty bastard outfielder that I know I think Trot truly wants to stay in Boston.

[Sox Fan on Cape]

Roy and the rest of you out there, if Nixon will be reasonable in his demands and prove he wants to stay with the Red Sox and gives us a home town discount I think we can come up with a two year contract and an option year for about six or seven mil a year. If he suddenly gets stars in his eyes and thinks he is worthy of a big payday then it is adios. I think he will be reasonable. Unlike some dirty bastard outfielder that I know I think Trot truly wants to stay in Boston.

It worked well for Bronson. <_ i think trot will be reasonable but with the addition of a no-trade clause.>

[jsinger121]

If a contract has no been done already for Nixon and the sox went out and acquired Pena that basically shows you the writing is on the wall. The sox will come out with a fake lowball offer to make it look like they did something then they will offer arbitration to ensure the draft picks to restock the farm system. they likely don't have the intentions of bringing nixon back at his age (32) and with his injury history on a multi year deal.

[Sox Fan on Cape]

If a contract has no been done already for Nixon and the sox went out and acquired Pena that basically shows you the writing is on the wall. The sox will come out with a fake lowball offer to make it look like they did something then they will offer arbitration to ensure the draft picks to restock the farm system. they likely don't have the intentions of bringing nixon back at his age (32) and with his injury history on a multi year deal.

 

From the the Sox point of view, I'd agreed with you. I was however, responding to SeabeachFred with respect to Trot's position with has been reasonable.

[ORS]

Nixon is not a 7-8 million dollar a year player anymore.

Yeah, he is.

 

Here is a table where I analyze the offensive production of former FA COFs this year. The final value is in $/Win. What I did was take the AAV of the contract, adjust it for the amount of games played this season to determine the money paid thus far this year. Then I took that figure and divided by 1/10 of VORP -- in the current run scoring environment, approx. 10 runs is a win. I didn't include any players who have yet to hit the FA market because their salaries do not reflect the current market value. I didn't include players who have missed significant time to injury because VORP is playing time dependent. I didn't include Bonds for obvious reasons.

 

$/VORP Win Comparison for COF -- All Money Figures in Millions

Player          AAV     Salary     VORP     $/Win

Manny           20.0     10.6      38.4      2.8
Nixon            6.5      3.5      17.2      2.0
Dye              5.1      2.8      36.2      0.8
Ordonez         15.0      8.1      20.2      4.0
Sanders          5.0      2.7       0.1    268.5
Vladdy          14.0      7.6      19.3      3.9
Anderson        12.0      6.5       0.1    651.9
Ichiro          11.0      6.0      33.3      1.8
Floyd            6.5      3.6       3.5     10.2
Abreu           12.8      6.9      27.8      2.5
Jones            5.3      2.9      16.6      1.7
Wilson           4.5      2.5       2.3     10.7
Alou             6.6      3.6      11.3      3.2
Giles           10.0      5.4       8.1      6.7
Roberts          2.3      1.2      14.0      0.9
Green            7.7      4.2      11.6      3.6
Gonzalez        10.0      5.4       2.1     25.9
Drew            11.0      6.0      14.6      4.1

 

Garrett Anderson and Reggie Sanders are actually at a negative VORP right now, but that wouldn't accurately reflect how much they are costing their team, so I made them very small without actually being zero. Throw those two out, and the current average $/Win for that group is $5.3M. Trot is reasonably priced, and can reasonably be expected to contribute about 25 VORP a year if healthy. That makes his market price 2.5 x 5.3 = $13.25. Yes, he is an injury concern, and that is worse as he gets older. But he's easily worth $7-8M.

[seabeachfred]

If a contract has no been done already for Nixon and the sox went out and acquired Pena that basically shows you the writing is on the wall. The sox will come out with a fake lowball offer to make it look like they did something then they will offer arbitration to ensure the draft picks to restock the farm system. they likely don't have the intentions of bringing nixon back at his age (32) and with his injury history on a multi year deal.

 

Jsing, if I were the Red Sox I would not be so gung-ho to think Wily Mo Pena can step in and take Nixon's place next year. First of all, if you've seen him play right field he is a disaster there. Remember the series he played against the Red Sox last year? Couldn't get out of his own way. This season he played a fly ball into a home run in the home opener which I saw with my own eyes. A Little Leaguer could have caught that ball. In eight years of pro ball he has NOT improved at all in RF. Besides, I see those strikeouts piling up by the dozens and all those LOB's that he specialized in with the Reds. Let's be absolutely sure this guy is ready and right now I don't think he is. Now if David Murphy can keep doing well in Pawtucket we could have a platoon situation with WMP but that still doesn't solve the problem of Pena's bad act in right field.

[RoyNHSox]

It worked well for Bronson. <_ i think trot will be reasonable but with the addition of a no-trade clause.>

 

If Trot does get an extension then he will have no trade protection automatically. Thanks to the clause in Tek’s contract of 8 years of service with the team, Trot’s will kick in toward the end of this season. This will obviously block ANY trade the Sox might consider involving Trot in the future.

 

[kreinbihl34]

Give him a 3 year deal for 15-18 mil. He deserves it. Let him go out on top.

[a700hitter]

If a contract has no been done already for Nixon and the sox went out and acquired Pena that basically shows you the writing is on the wall. The sox will come out with a fake lowball offer to make it look like they did something then they will offer arbitration to ensure the draft picks to restock the farm system. they likely don't have the intentions of bringing nixon back at his age (32) and with his injury history on a multi year deal.

I think Wily Mo will eventually be the starting first baseman, and Youk will move back to 3rd.

[a700hitter]

As badly as Nixon is going, he is still hitting .299 with a .400 on-base percentage which is higher than everyone except for Manny. Even with his power outage, his OPS is higher than Varitek, Crisp and Loretta. It is not much lower than Youk's, Pena's and Lowell's. I don't think we can kill him yet for his offensive production, Trot is a superior rightfielder who plays the most difficult RF in the AL.

[ksushi]

I thought Youk had an OBP still over .400 but I could be wrong. Nixon isn't hitting very well right now, but its a slump. Slumps happen from time to time.

[RoyNHSox]

I think Trot’s power outage is becoming a concern, especially for someone who regularly hits 5th in the lineup. It’s been almost a month since his last extra base hit, and even longer since his last HR. To watch a player’s offensive production tail off the way his has this month is a red flag, especially since he’s played the season injury free.

[jsinger121]

I think Trot’s power outage is becoming a concern, especially for someone who regularly hits 5th in the lineup. It’s been almost a month since his last extra base hit, and even longer since his last HR. To watch a player’s offensive production tail off the way his has this month is a red flag, especially since he’s played the season injury free.

 

exactly and thats why I have said his .300 plus average would come down because he doesn't do anything with the bat. Trot is not in a slump. He is just coming back down to his career norms. He is a declining ballplayer and no matter how good he is in the field the Red Sox should not bring him back because his bat is declining and has been for the past few years and he is always an injury risk.

[TheKilo]

As badly as Nixon is going, he is still hitting .299 with a .400 on-base percentage which is higher than everyone except for Manny. Even with his power outage, his OPS is higher than Varitek, Crisp and Loretta. It is not much lower than Youk's, Pena's and Lowell's. I don't think we can kill him yet for his offensive production, Trot is a superior rightfielder who plays the most difficult RF in the AL.

 

 

It's not a good thing when your #5 hitter has become a glorified singles hitter.

[seabeachfred]

As badly as Nixon is going, he is still hitting .299 with a .400 on-base percentage which is higher than everyone except for Manny. Even with his power outage, his OPS is higher than Varitek, Crisp and Loretta. It is not much lower than Youk's, Pena's and Lowell's. I don't think we can kill him yet for his offensive production, Trot is a superior rightfielder who plays the most difficult RF in the AL.

 

700---For some reason Trot Nixon has become a whipping boy by many Red Sox fans. I think it is because of two things. One, his injury reputation, much of which, by the way, is because of how hard he plays. The second reason is that many fans are suprised and disappointed at his reduced power numbers. I'm not advocating him swinging for the fences, but if he would get on a hot streak and drive in a bunch of runs I think much of the criticism would be forgotten. I think much of the anger, if that's what it is, should be directed at Coco Crisp and Jason Varitek who have not given us much offense all year. :harhar:

[MANNYHOF24]

I predict, that Nixon will pick it up agian, unlike what Jsinger has been saying, Nixon is healthy and he will start producing like his career norms when he was healthy, I see a 12 HR, 40 Rbi Aug-Sep, that will wipe out this horrible mid-June July Trot. Lets remember that Trot was huge for us in April and May

[TheKilo]

I predict, that Nixon will pick it up agian, unlike what Jsinger has been saying, Nixon is healthy and he will start producing like his career norms when he was healthy, I see a 12 HR, 40 Rbi Aug-Sep, that will wipe out this horrible mid-June July Trot. Lets remember that Trot was huge for us in April and May

 

 

You honestly think Trot will hit twice as many homers in two months as he has in three and a half?

[a700hitter]

700---For some reason Trot Nixon has become a whipping boy by many Red Sox fans. I think it is because of two things. One, his injury reputation, much of which, by the way, is because of how hard he plays. The second reason is that many fans are suprised and disappointed at his reduced power numbers. I'm not advocating him swinging for the fences, but if he would get on a hot streak and drive in a bunch of runs I think much of the criticism would be forgotten. I think much of the anger, if that's what it is, should be directed at Coco Crisp and Jason Varitek who have not given us much offense all year. :harhar:

In 1972, Yaz did not hit his first homer until July 2nd. His average was around .300 at the time. During the pennant run in September, he hit 7 or 8 homers. These power outages can happen. Yaz went on to play another 11 years, and he was an All Star several times.

[example1]

exactly and thats why I have said his .300 plus average would come down because he doesn't do anything with the bat. Trot is not in a slump. He is just coming back down to his career norms. He is a declining ballplayer and no matter how good he is in the field the Red Sox should not bring him back because his bat is declining and has been for the past few years and he is always an injury risk.

 

I agree with you jsinger. I wouldn't go as far as you did and say that they should not resign him, simply because if he's willing to be a backup OFer, or if he is tradable with a decent contract then that's what they should do. They should not go out of their way to sign him, but if he falls in their lap they should.

 

People are being somewhat unrealistic about what this guy is capable of. He does not have power. It is easy to say that his injury proneness is only because he played so hard, but lots of players play hard and don't get injured as much. A noticable dip in power coninciding with fewer injuries could mean something else.

 

In any case, I love Trot. He's a dirtdog through and through. but he's getting older and he plays a position that is easily fillable with other players, and a position where power is at a premium. I can assure everyone that the Sox are not going to lose a lot of sleep if Trot plays "hard to get" during contract negotiations this year.

 

With trot signed to a starting OFer deal, the sox are limited in their flexibility. They have some options on their bench though that he is keeping from happening. If Trot stays then the option of putting Crisp in RF does not exist, Pena can't be a starter either. This means we can't go get another CFer if one is attractive (Andruw Jones for instance) without moving Crisp, or we can't get a guy with pop who can play RF (Carlos Lee for instance). The Sox FO won't put themselves in a multi-year bind to keep a guy who can't hit lefties, is a constant injury risk, and who lacks power.

[redsox71490]

I have no idea why the Sox would not offer this guy a nice contract. Though he is kinda old, he plays the hardest of anyone on the team every day and gets on base at a pretty high clip. WMP is much worse defensively and can really only contribute through the longball. Nixon works pitchers and still hits for power when we need it most ('03 ALCS anyone?)

[TheKilo]

I have no idea why the Sox would not offer this guy a nice contract. Though he is kinda old, he plays the hardest of anyone on the team every day and gets on base at a pretty high clip. WMP is much worse defensively and can really only contribute through the longball. Nixon works pitchers and still hits for power when we need it most ('03 ALCS anyone?)

 

 

You can take the rose colored glasses off at anytime now. The reason you don't offer this guy a nice contract is because he's old, gets injured often, and can't hit for power anymore. Not what you want out of a RF who hits in the 5 slot.

 

Oh, by the way, '03 was three years ago, in case you haven't noticed.

 

edit - Maybe someone with the stats can back this up, but isn't Trot considered to be, at best, an average defensive right fielder? I thought I remembered hearing that somewhere. It also annoys me how much of a free pass he gets because he has dirt on his hat and plays hard. Gimme a f***ing break.

[redsox71490]

I know it was 3 years ago. Don't be an ass, I can have my opinion.

[TheKilo]

I know it was 3 years ago. Don't be an ass, I can have my opinion.

 

 

Who's being an ass? You say he hits for power when the Sox need it the most and then cite an example from three years ago.

 

Not a really strong argument.

[a700hitter]

I don't think a final decision on Trot can be made until the end of the year. You don't make a decision whether or not to re-sign a guy based on 1 or 2 months.