New Manny Rumor...

[DrewDaGreat]

at mlbtraderumors

 

A source close to the Mets organization has supplied me with a possible trade scenario that is being discussed. It's complicated, but I thought I'd put it out there.

 

Mets trade: Aaron Heilman, Cliff Floyd, Victor Diaz, Brian Bannister

Mets get: Manny Ramirez

 

TB trades: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright

TB receives: Aaron Heilman, Victor Diaz, Bronson Arroyo

 

Red Sox trade: Manny Ramirez, Bronson Arroyo

Red Sox receive: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright, Cliff Floyd, Brian Bannister

[ACL BoSox]

NO!!!

 

The only acceptable departure of Manny is if we get Tejada in return. Without that, no sum of talent can equal what we're giving up. If that were to happen, I'd want at least Milledge instead of Bannister.

[guapo34]

Cliff Floyd has a limited no trade clause that includes Boston. He doesn't like it here and won't come back. If we could swing him and a prospect for Abreu then it would look a lot better. I know nothing about Bannister, but it would look a lot better milledge instead of him.

[He Hate Me]

yes, please do that trade. Weaken your lineup.

[eZ_d0eS_iT]

Another laughable trade and insult to Manny's value. No thanks. If the A's are holding on to Zito till at least the All-Star Break, then we can do the same and see what other desperate teams are willing ante up because they think Manny will put them over the top.

 

BTW, while I like Tejada, I don't see how his production will = what we lose without Manny in our lineup. And Baltimore balking at trading within their own division is ridiculous...just like they don't want to have to face Tejada, do they actually think we would prefer to see Manny in the same division wearing another uniform? Peter Angelos is idiot that doesn't 'get it', and I feel kinda sorry for the fans of Baltimore. Hopefully they take their revenge by become Nats fans.

[ORS]

Another laughable trade and insult to Manny's value. No thanks. If the A's are holding on to Zito till at least the All-Star Break, then we can do the same and see what other desperate teams are willing ante up because they think Manny will put them over the top.

This is probably the best way to maximize the return on Manny. If the Sox are out of the race, and if the pitching staff is still struggling (Schilling and Foulke's recoveries, Beckett's blisters, Saenz and Mota don't find it), they could possibly rake a contender needing a big bat over the coals. I'd love for Anaheim to get a little desperate.

 

BTW, while I like Tejada, I don't see how his production will = what we lose without Manny in our lineup.

It is very easy.

 

3-2-1 VORP

Tejada - 69.0

Manny - 70.1

 

3-2-1 WARP1

Tejada - 7.9

Manny - 6.9

 

Offensively*, Tejada is just a tick below Manny when you compare them to a replacement level player at their given positions. When you throw defense into the mix, as WARP does, Tejada has more value over his replacement than Manny does.

 

*I'm not suggesting that Tejada is anywhere near the caliber hitter that Manny is, just that he is comparable to Manny when you compare them to replacement level. Since it is easier to find a decent hitting LF this year than it is to find a decent hitting SS, I think Tejada plus Manny's replacement will be better than Manny plus Edgar's.

[Cityofchampions33]

Plus, we could gain that power back from other psoitions. If healthy, trot Nixon might be able to hit 15+ HRs and maybe above 20. If he returns to form Lowell is more than capable of hitting 20 or more. Loretta tops Bellhorn, and Tejada tops Edgar, so it almost comes out good for us.

[jsinger121]

unless the mets are throwing lastings milledge in a trade for manny they can pretty much forget it.

[Cityofchampions33]

I really don't like any deal with the mest unless it involves Milledge or Beltran, and I''m not excited about eBeltran at all.

[example1]

I would want Milledge AND Beltran, personally. That would be about right. One of them would probably have a pretty good career from here on out.

[jsinger121]

i would want that too but i would doubt omar would ever do such a move. that would leave them with no one to play center for them.

[elsrbueno]

http://www.nj.com/mets/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/1135923276242010.xml&coll=1

 

More Manny crap.

 

I said I'd have traded Manny and Clement for Tejada, so a trade in which we trade JUST Manny, get Tejada, and don't have to face Manny is way better

 

This seems like the MOST likely senario of any other Manny talk. The Mets are the one team that lusts over him-- it's just a matter of the Mets giving enough to the Orioles to convince them to part with Tejada, because you know the Red Sox would trade Manny for Tejada straight up.

[MANNYHOF24]

this is awfull, enough said

[Ray10]

If that deal was to happen it would be a BAD one for the Sox they are getting rid of Manny and getting what for him. Nothing that great they can recieve alot better than that for Manny. But either way I am still standing by my belief that Manny will be back in a Red Sox uniform next year.

[ACL BoSox]

Trading Manny for a SS who plays 162 Games a year and is the best at what he does... give me that in a heart beat.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Since the current deal on the table is Manny Ramirez and Matt Clement for Miguel Tejada there is obviously a huge difference in money. However could the Sox ask for one other player?

 

If the Orioles were serious about this deal they could help level the money by adding either Luis Matos or Jay Gibbons along with Tejada. For some reason this trade talk makes the Red Sox seem desperate to make a move. Everyone says the Orioles would be taking on the Red Sox problems but isn't that what we are doing with Tejada? Works both ways if you ask me so I don't understand this crap that comes out making us look like the desperate team.

 

In my opinion giving up the best OF in the AL East for the best SS in the AL East is perfectly fine but giving up one of our rotation pitchers as well? Not to mention Matt Clement is possibly the best starter on the Orioles if this happens. I think we should get another player in the mix like Jay Gibbons to fill Manny's spot. Then we could be nice and make up the difference in money.

[jimmycarter05]

I would love to have Luis Matos, I remember that catch he made to rob Ortiz of a home run, and he's not a bad hitter. Only in his 6th year.

[Cityofchampions33]

Yeah another young spect who, whenever he plays a majority of the season, has hit .280 and .303 I think. He would be a good interim CF and lead-off hitter while we ait about another season for Ellsbury. I like him a lot and if we get him, he does good, but Ellsbury comes along good, I have no probvlem replacing Nixon with him in RF.

[a700hitter]

I would love to have Luis Matos, I remember that catch he made to rob Ortiz of a home run, and he's not a bad hitter. Only in his 6th year.

I was at that game. He made another really nice diving catch coming in on a ball. His beat the Sox with his defense that day. I didn't have an appreciation for his range before that game. If he is included in the Tejada deal, we wouldn't have to move any more pitchers or prospects to fill holes. I realize that there would be a LF opening, but that should be easy to fill. Maybe Graffy could play there until someone else is available.

[ksushi]

Ellsbury has my vote for opening day center if the price doesn't come down on Reed, c'mon Gil Meche and Reed for Lester? *cleans vomit off the floor*

 

Ok, I really want someone to give me a good detailed response to this because I have a burning question no one has been able to answer. You have an oppurtunity to show a very stubborn man the light and bring him to the land of milk and honey. I will change my stance on this if someone can tell me why I should because everyone seems to blindly love this Miguel Tejada, if that even is his real name.

 

Alright, lets take a couple indisputable facts to start with, Shortstop is the most demanding position on the field, Fenway has one of the toughest (if not the toughest) infields to play on and at a position like short it really shows thus making it top order to get a high end defensive shortstop and hitting takes a back seat. One more indisputable fact, Manny is a much better hitter than Tejada.

 

Ok, that out of the way comes my question, WHY DOES EVERYONE LIKE TEJADA? Mannys thing is RBI, so is Tejadas but to a lesser degree. Why down grade homeruns, average hitting, and throw ortiz protection out the window for nothing more than a big name? This deal sucks. Clement is a good pitcher, no not in the post season, but we could get value in return for him ( Reed if Seattle stops hitting the booze, or Crisp). You will all want to hang Tejada by July if he is a sox. He won't cut it at short, hes good with the glove butl good doesn't get it done in fenway. Only top notch gets it done, like cabrera, and even he had a spike in errors after coming to fenway. He won't provide ortiz any protection and he won't hit 30 homers. He'll bat .290 in the three spot and be a tad above average otherwise. He will not be worth what we are giving up. If you're interested in posting a rebuttal to this, look up his post season stats for a good laugh too. You're not exactly trading for the next Mr.October.

 

IMO the only way to replace mannys offensive output is to acquire some pitching in the deal I.E. Ervin Santana or Mark Prior/Carlos Zambrano. I don't see that happening though.

[a700hitter]

I don't think everyone is loving the Tejada swap, but it has been the best offer I have heard. The Angels are not putting Ervin Santana on the table, nor are the Cubs offering up Zambrano. Miggy is a far cry better than a package of Milledge and Floyd, or Lugo and Huff and some of the other rip-off offers that have been floated. It seems that the FO and Manny are serious about it this time, so Miggy seems to be the lesser of all evils, but a definite offensive downgrade. On the upside, he is a top defensive player and the Sox still have a hole at SS. Another plus is Miggy is a few years younger. And last but not least, he can supply the team with Vitamin B12.

[riverside sluggers]

Miguel will still give a bit bat behind Ortiz, we know he's capable of 35-45 Hrs/130-150 RBIs

[ksushi]

I realize no one is offering what we want, I didn't mean to insinuate that there were Zambrano and Ervin offers, there aren't. At the moment, there aren't even Milledge offers. So, yeah, the Tejada rumor is amidst thin competition here, but why trade manny at all? That seems to win out to me.

 

Also, little tid bit, I hope someone reads this because I loved it. A read an article that did a pythagorean RS/RA win projection of the current Yankees team and the current Sox team with no SS and no CF. Ok, No I don't know what a pythagorean win projection is but I went with it and liked what I read. The Yankees projected to win 93 games, scoring more runs than last season, but also allowing more than last season. The Red Sox with their obvious holes that will at least be filled by people with pulses, projected to win 91 with two line up spots open. Granted, this does not include injury obviously, but that swings both ways. The Yanks could easily lose a Sheff, a Damon or a Johnson or all three for a substancial period of time ( I won't even mention that Rivera is getting up in age, he is exempt because of that whole god status thing). The sox are O.K. and I think that dealing for Tejada does one of two things, A.) if manny is dealt, it lowers the amount of games we can win down to like 80ish, or B.) it ups it to like 95 if we deal prospects like Lester or Bowden or Delcarmen, but it means we part with some of what will be a bright future, Im not willing to do that.

 

/to-large-to-be-considered-a-tidbit-tidbit.

[ksushi]

Miguel will still give a bit bat behind Ortiz, we know he's capable of 35-45 Hrs/130-150 RBIs

 

Considering he has never hit more than 34 HR in his career I believe, I'd say you're stoking this fire alittle bit too much.

 

Sorry for the double post, I'll be sure to even be annoyed at myself.

[ORS]

I realize no one is offering what we want, I didn't mean to insinuate that there were Zambrano and Ervin offers, there aren't. At the moment, there aren't even Milledge offers. So, yeah, the Tejada rumor is amidst thin competition here, but why trade manny at all? That seems to win out to me.

 

Also, little tid bit, I hope someone reads this because I loved it. A read an article that did a pythagorean RS/RA win projection of the current Yankees team and the current Sox team with no SS and no CF. Ok, No I don't know what a pythagorean win projection is but I went with it and liked what I read. The Yankees projected to win 93 games, scoring more runs than last season, but also allowing more than last season. The Red Sox with their obvious holes that will at least be filled by people with pulses, projected to win 91 with two line up spots open. Granted, this does not include injury obviously, but that swings both ways. The Yanks could easily lose a Sheff, a Damon or a Johnson or all three for a substancial period of time ( I won't even mention that Rivera is getting up in age, he is exempt because of that whole god status thing). The sox are O.K. and I think that dealing for Tejada does one of two things, A.) if manny is dealt, it lowers the amount of games we can win down to like 80ish, or B.) it ups it to like 95 if we deal prospects like Lester or Bowden or Delcarmen, but it means we part with some of what will be a bright future, Im not willing to do that.

 

/to-large-to-be-considered-a-tidbit-tidbit.

Bill James created the concept of pythgorean record. The original version is as follows

 

(RS^2) / (RS^2 + RA^2) = WIN %

 

Since its creation, the formula has been refined and the quick-and-easy exponent has changed from 2 to 1.83. The current most accepted model places the value of the exponent at [(RS + RA) / G]^0.285.

 

Here's the answer to your Tejada question. I like this trade because Tejada is better than a replacement player at his postion by a larger margin than Manny is at his position. I posted the numbers that support this on the first page of this thread.

 

The article you read more than likely assumed that the "pulses" at CF and SS were replacement level players (minor league journeymen, drek on waivers). Since Tejada's improvement over replacement level is higher than Manny's, then that article would have had the Sox at more than 91 wins with a replacement level LF.

 

FOR THE RECORD: I do like this trade. I don't care if it happens, though. They either acquire the best all-around SS in the game, or they keep one of the best 5 hitters of the last 30 years. Win/win situation, if you ask me.

 

EDIT: Click here to read a good article about the history of WIN % estimators.

[Cityofchampions33]

I like Tejada for a few reasons. He of course is known for being a rugged, dirt dog who can play 162 games a year. However I'm worried that he is not as defensively sound as I thought. In fact he's made 20+ errors almost every eyar of his career and in the last 3 consecutive seasons. If it's not what I thought I'd love to be proven wrong because that's all I really see wrong with him, and that's only a minor thing.

[jimmycarter05]

I like Tejada for a few reasons. He of course is known for being a rugged, dirt dog who can play 162 games a year. However I'm worried that he is not as defensively sound as I thought. In fact he's made 20+ errors almost every eyar of his career and in the last 3 consecutive seasons. If it's not what I thought I'd love to be proven wrong because that's all I really see wrong with him, and that's only a minor thing.

 

Yeah, hasn't he played like 800 straight games or something, and the reason that Tejada has more errors is because he trys for more balls.

[Jeff04]

There is no way they shoud make a deal unless they get a quality hitter and fielder in return such as tejada. If the mets want to offer a bunch of players thinking it is as good as tejada they must be out of their minds. You need to get the best talent possible which is easily tejada

[Manny Goes Boom]

Bill James created the concept of pythgorean record. The original version is as follows

 

(RS^2) / (RS^2 + RA^2) = WIN %

 

Since its creation, the formula has been refined and the quick-and-easy exponent has changed from 2 to 1.83. The current most accepted model places the value of the exponent at [(RS + RA) / G]^0.285.

 

Here's the answer to your Tejada question. I like this trade because Tejada is better than a replacement player at his postion by a larger margin than Manny is at his position. I posted the numbers that support this on the first page of this thread.

 

The article you read more than likely assumed that the "pulses" at CF and SS were replacement level players (minor league journeymen, drek on waivers). Since Tejada's improvement over replacement level is higher than Manny's, then that article would have had the Sox at more than 91 wins with a replacement level LF.

 

FOR THE RECORD: I do like this trade. I don't care if it happens, though. They either acquire the best all-around SS in the game, or they keep one of the best 5 hitters of the last 30 years. Win/win situation, if you ask me.

 

EDIT: Click here to read a good article about the history of WIN % estimators.

 

I've seen you say this for awhile but I gotta get my $0.02 in. The reason that Tejada has a higher value than a replacement player (correct me if I'm wrong, all these VORP and WARP stuff get confusing sometimes) is that there are fewer "ELITE" players at the shortstop position than there are at OF or LF.

 

SS: Tejada, Jeter, I'll put Furcal, and I'll give you Rent.

 

LF/OF: Manny, Vlad, Adruw Jones, Vernon Wells, Torri Hunter, Jacque Jones, Barry Bonds, Gary Sheffield, Lance Berkman, Carlos Beltran (I'll still put him in a high categroy, one bad year doesn't tarnish a career IMO), Miguel Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Jim Edmonds, and quite a few more.

 

You may come back and tell me why I'm wrong but as of now, my list seems to show why those numbers (VORP, WARP) are ********.

[ORS]

I've seen you say this for awhile but I gotta get my $0.02 in. The reason that Tejada has a higher value than a replacement player (correct me if I'm wrong, all these VORP and WARP stuff get confusing sometimes) is that there are fewer "ELITE" players at the shortstop position than there are at OF or LF.

 

SS: Tejada, Jeter, I'll put Furcal, and I'll give you Rent.

 

LF/OF: Manny, Vlad, Adruw Jones, Vernon Wells, Torri Hunter, Jacque Jones, Barry Bonds, Gary Sheffield, Lance Berkman, Carlos Beltran (I'll still put him in a high categroy, one bad year doesn't tarnish a career IMO), Miguel Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Jim Edmonds, and quite a few more.

 

You may come back and tell me why I'm wrong but as of now, my list seems to show why those numbers (VORP, WARP) are ********.

VORP/RARP are calculated from league averages at that position. RARP (runs above replacement player) is simpler so I'll explain it to give you an idea of how it's done.

 

First you look at a player's EqA* (equivalent average). This takes all of the player's offensive contribution (H, XBH, BB, HBP, SB, CS, SF, SH) and puts it into one number.

 

*Note, before you start questioning this number, consider this. Statisticians have looked at every season of team statistical data and determined which statistics actually lead to more runs. This is called correlation. Correlations range between 1 and -1. A correlation of 1 means that every time a stat increases, then the team's runs scored increases (-1 is a perfect increase/decrease relationship). A correlation of 0 means that the statistic has no output on runs scored. Here are the correlations of BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and EqA.

 

BA - .828

OBP - .866

SLG - .890

OPS - .922

EqA - .928

 

Once the you have the EqA, you convert it to EqR (equivalent runs). Replacement level has been statistically determined to be about 73% of league average. So, you take the league average EqA for that position, take 73% of it, and convert that number to EqR. The difference between the player's EqR and this number is the RARP.*

 

*Note, I keep saying you, but you don't really have to do all these things to find these numbers. Non-subscription users can access all of this information at Baseball Prospectus.

 

Why did I go to the trouble to explain this? To show that part of your assertion is right. These numbers are computed from league averages, so more elite hitters at a position will raise the league average, making the replacement level (RL) higher. That means that the replacement level for SS is lower. By these metrics, if you were to take Manny + a RL SS it would be about the same as Miggy + a RL LF. However, teams aren't limited to replacement level when building their roster. Last year there were 26 COFs with a 30+ VORP, while there were only 5 SSs, meaning it would be easier to get a higher combination of the two postions with Tejada.