06 Red Sox spreadsheet

[yeszir]

Here's something perhaps worth discussing that our own youkilis rules came up with. He'd like some critiquing on his lineup I believe. It's in excel format.

 

http://www.talksox.com/06sox.xls

[CalvnHobs6]

I can vouch for it, it's worth the download.

[youkilis rules]

come on people I spent a lot of time on this I want to hear what you think! respond!

[Sox Fan on Cape]

Okay the formatting is great. I have serious doubts about the trades ( especially with our current GM situation ) salaries, and call-ups. At least you took the lead and put in the time . You should be commended ( actually you are ). For this you get to go to the Elf thread ( its under prizes, starts with Ho, Ho, Ho, Elf bottom of the page ).

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4763

[youkilis rules]

I know it may sound ridiculous but I was maybe thinking of making this as professional as possible and then possibly sending it to Yawkey Way...

[Sox Fan on Cape]

Its not ridiculous. There was a guy on SOSH ( Son's of Sam Horn ) that was incredible with stats and analysis he now works for the Sox. He got noticed from the site.Unfortunately, they changed servers and much of the previous posts were lost. Personally, I think that site went down the tubes. Work and perfect your skills and follow your dream, I wish you the best.

[pats55sox45]

i actually had all your thoughts today

except i was also thinking about the possible trade for glaus goin through and did not include bj ryan as you did

but everything else i honestly think could happen

but we would have to act fast, cuz giles will get gobbled up, and if we lose manny, WE MUST get giles

also, i dont see us gettin farnsworth for three mill, id say about 4.5 mill

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

The one thing I may argue with is the bullpen. The Red Sox have one main focus and thats a dominating lefty reliever: Guardado, Wagner, or Ryan.

 

The Yanks are going to fight hard for Ryan so why not bid on one of the other two. We can argue all day which one is the best but the fact is they are all good. They all have small ERAs, experience, ability to close, etc. The Red Sox just need to make sure they get one of them.

 

They will give Keith Foulke the oppotunity to close again and rightly so...I would do the same. If the Red Sox have a three way combo of a healthy effective Foulke, Timlin, and *lefty*.....then we just made our bullpen. The rest of the spots can be filled by players already on our team. The only other guys I would consider bringing back is Myers and possibly Mantei. I would give Delcarmen and Hansen a little time in Pawtucket to get everything PERFECT when the join the team later...so I would start the season with:

 

CL: Keith Foulke (huge reward/risk? money is already invested so give him another shot...at least this time we have a backup plan)

SU: Mike Timlin (Mr. Reliable)

SU: Guardado, Wagner, or Ryan (guaranteed upgrade over Embree)

MR: Chad Bradford (situational righty...will do better now that he starts the season here)

MR: Mike Myers (situational lefty)

MR: Matt Mantei (should be fully healthy, less of a role so less pressure)

MR: Lenny DiNardo (hitting his prime now at age 26..give him the chance to make it in the big leagues)

 

....as we saw this season things don't always work out the way you want BUT...if you have Hansen, Delcarmen, Alvarez, Lester, Sanchez, among others getting prepared in the minors (hopefully they are all in Pawtucket)...we have more fall back options as opposed to needing to make a deal. Not to mention the only real big money invested in this group will be the set-up lefty. This gives the Sox more money to go after key positional players.

[yankeessuck013]

guardado resigned back with the mariners, so that leaves wagner or ryan, I'd take eyre too

[Optimist]

Ryan is most likely going to end up with the Yankees. He, from what I hear, is close to Ron Guidry...who is, almost certainly, going to be the pitching coach in 2006. I see this most likely turning into a bidding war and...when have the Sox ever won a bidding war with the Yankees?

[Soxfan1]

That's real nice. Email it to one of the boston writers. Weren't you here for the sim and then you left when it was over?

[yankeessuck013]

.when have the Sox ever won a bidding war with the Yankees?

 

how many times has it back fired on you guys?

[RedSoxRooter]

I think the estimated contracts are a bit low. You suggest there won't be a bidding war on Ryan and Giles.

 

I'll tell ya though...... I was reading down the lineup and was like "uh, ok. ok. ok. maybe. ok" then got to the end and almost s*** when I saw the active payroll at 108 million. And only then did I realize Manny wasn't on the list!

 

Can you imagine Vladdy and Manny back-to-back? And that's STILL not as good as Ortiz/Manny. :dunno:

[Optimist]

how many times has it back fired on you guys?

 

Don't bring that up.

 

 

[guapo34]

I like farnsworth a lot but hes gonna get a lot more than 3. Anything less than 5.5 and I'd be surprised. Arroyo is not nearly enough to get Overbay. That Manny trade is awful. Darin Erstad is worse than Millar offensively and is scheduled to make 8.5 next year. With us paying 5 on top of that we're paying 14 million for Erstad and Santana. No thanks. I also don't think people realize how good David Wells was for us last year. He had two terrible outings. After getting healthy he was our best pitcher for most of the year.

[riverside sluggers]

I also don't think people realize how good David Wells was for us last year.

 

yes we all realize that. But I dont think you realize Wells has requested a trade to a team on the West because he's grown tired of being in Boston, particularyly a portion of the Sox fans. Myself and others included would like our players to be comfortable with Boston and be able to handle one of the biggest fanbases. As well as happy to play for the Red Sox. If he doesnt like Boston and being "hassled" by Red Sox Nation, fine here's another team and thanks for the 05 season

 

Darin Erstad is worse than Millar offensively and is scheduled to make 8.5 next year.

 

A benefit of having Erstad is that in his 7/8 year career he has just made 29 errors total on the field. And Unlike Millar, he's got speed on the basepaths. Adding Santana, you're just looking at it from the money point of view. Him and Papelbon joining the rotation could give the Sox a boost and not really have to rely on the offense scoring a lot of runs. Look at how Chicago had done so. The Brewers would take a Arroyo for Overbay in a trade deal, they kinda need starting pitching. Fine Sox can send them like alvarez and a lesser known prospect.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Darin Erstad is a better hitter than Kevin Millar.....Darin Erstad is a tough hardworking baseball player. Kevin Millar just eats chicken. It is a lot of money the Sox need to take on with him but I think we are gonna have to do that in any trade we make with Manny involved. Its fine adding a gold glove caliber player and some young excellent pitching...in the end it will benefit us more than hold us back.

[schillingouttheks]

Not to mention Erstad has some serious wheels for a first baseman.

[guapo34]

yes we all realize that. But I dont think you realize Wells has requested a trade to a team on the West because he's grown tired of being in Boston, particularyly a portion of the Sox fans. Myself and others included would like our players to be comfortable with Boston and be able to handle one of the biggest fanbases. As well as happy to play for the Red Sox. If he doesnt like Boston and being "hassled" by Red Sox Nation, fine here's another team and thanks for the 05 season.

 

 

Thanks. I know he asked to be traded. I just don't think Antonio Otsuka and Brian Lawrence are enough for a solid starting pitcher. If its the best offer we get, then we probably won't have much of a choice. Of course Lawrence just got traded so this specific trade doesn't really matter. Even with Wells trade request does everyone really think that we can't do better than this??

[guapo34]

Darin Erstad is a better hitter than Kevin Millar.....Darin Erstad is a tough hardworking baseball player. Kevin Millar just eats chicken. It is a lot of money the Sox need to take on with him but I think we are gonna have to do that in any trade we make with Manny involved. Its fine adding a gold glove caliber player and some young excellent pitching...in the end it will benefit us more than hold us back.

 

This is going to be fun

 

2005 Avg Obp Slg OPS

Darin Erstad .273 .325 .371 .696

Kevin Millar .272 .355 .399 .753

 

 

A 696 OBP out of your first basemen would devastate a team. Alex Cora posted an OPS of .704 last year. I bet hes faster and would play better defense at first than Darin Erstad. Since those things are so important why don't we play him at first base next year? And it won't even cost us 13 million.

[ORS]

Darin Erstad is a better hitter than Kevin Millar.

While I certainly won't be missing Millar on the roster, this isn't true. Look at the stats.

 

1999-2005

 

OPS+

Millar: 107, 119, 141, 131, 110, 117, 100

Erstad: 74, 137, 78, 88, 75, 95, 89

 

EqA

Millar: .277, .289, .311, .300, .274, .284, .262

Erstad: .225, .306, .243, .247, .233, .263, .247

 

League average is 100 for OPS+ and .260 for EqA. Millar has had one league avg. season (2005) and six above avg. Erstad has had one above avg., one at avg., and 5 below avg.

[ORS]

Thanks. I know he asked to be traded. I just don't think Antonio Otsuka and Brian Lawrence are enough for a solid starting pitcher. If its the best offer we get, then we probably won't have much of a choice. Of course Lawrence just got traded so this specific trade doesn't really matter. Even with Wells trade request does everyone really think that we can't do better than this??

The problem with the Wells situation is this question, will he just walk away from the game if they don't honor his wish? He hinted at retirement after this year prior to the request, so you know it is already on his mind. I don't know if Boomer can leave a potential $8-9M on the table, but he's not the easiest guy to read. It's big risk if they don't trade him.

 

As for his trade value, who is going to want to give up a valuable player for a one year rental? Wells will be 43 after next season, and it is very likely that he will hang up his spikes at the end of the year.

 

BTW, Lawrence was traded to the Nat's in the Vinny Castilla deal.

[ksushi]

It isn't 8-9 next year, its more like 2, I think they signed him for four million over two years in a very insentive laden deal, its not about the money with boomer. He wants to play some where else, or hang 'em up, i believe.

[riverside sluggers]

David Wells: signed 2-year deal worth 8M thru 2006 season on 12/14/04- he will make 2.5M in both 2005 and 2006- + he receives a 3M signing bonus (payable 1.5M each year)- + he can earn 5M in bonuses (payable immediately following the season) each year making the total value of the deal up to 18M: he receives a bonus of 200K per start for starts 11-20 and 300K per start for starts 21-30, thus receiving all 5M in possible bonuses by making 30 starts- + he earned 5M in performance bonuses in 2005 for making 30 starts

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

While I certainly won't be missing Millar on the roster, this isn't true. Look at the stats.

 

1999-2005

 

OPS+

Millar: 107, 119, 141, 131, 110, 117, 100

Erstad: 74, 137, 78, 88, 75, 95, 89

 

EqA

Millar: .277, .289, .311, .300, .274, .284, .262

Erstad: .225, .306, .243, .247, .233, .263, .247

 

League average is 100 for OPS+ and .260 for EqA. Millar has had one league avg. season (2005) and six above avg. Erstad has had one above avg., one at avg., and 5 below avg.

 

Once again you guys can throw all the stats you want at me but players tend to become betters hitters when they get to Boston. Its easier to hit in Fenway, the team is solid top to bottom with good hitters, and there philosophy on hitting is different than that of the Angels. Erstad has had a much more solid career that Millar could ever dream. The biggest difference though is the defense where I would like this team to get back to what helped them be champions. Remember when Pokey and Doug would come in late in the game....three gold glovers in the infield. How would this team look if they could add more gold glovers....the pitching would become much better and pitching wins in baseball.

[ORS]

Once again you guys can throw all the stats you want at me but players tend to become betters hitters when they get to Boston. Its easier to hit in Fenway

FYI, OPS+ and EqA are park adjusted stats. Yes, Erstad is a more complete player than Millar, but Millar is a better hitter.

 

EDIT: Correction. OPS+ is not, by definition, a park adjusted stat; however, the OPS+ stats I used in the comparison of Millar vs. Erstad were park adjusted since the site I got them from calculates the values with a park adjustment.

 

baseball-reference.com

[riverside sluggers]

hey schillingisnatural, here is a stat you will like and get people on here to see Erstad would be a productive hitter for Fenway. Im for Erstad becoming part of Red Sox Nation.

 

pluses of having Erstad

 

base running skills, capable of 20+ stolen bases

33 career games played in Boston has a .302 batting avg

 

29 errors from 1997 to 2005 covering 1st base and outfield positions, which relates to a .996 fielding % in 1283 games.

 

Yes, Erstad is a more complete player than Millar, but Millar is a better hitter.

 

you mean millar was a better hitter, his stats will just continue to slide.

[ORS]

you mean millar was a better hitter, his stats will just continue to slide.

I meant what I said. Erstad is the better player, but Millar is the better hitter. If Millar has a below league average season at the plate, then I'd agree that his hitting skills are in serious decline. But looking at the last seven years, there is no reason to think that Millar will be below league average, nor is there any reason to think Erstad will be above it.

 

EDIT: Typo.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Maybe its more than stats with me..just watching Millar he always looks off balanced when he swings. He also takes the smallest step into the ball as opposed to driving it...its like he attempts to lift the ball out of the park.

 

I dunno maybe Millar has had some success with Boston but I fully believe Erstad can to....he just looks like a Red Sox player. I doubt he can have a season like he did in 2000 but I also doubt Millar will ever have a good season again in Boston. Mostly cause he won't be back so I don't know why we are arguing this hahaha.

[castigs850]

i dont think erstad will come either though

 

the offense will most likely be the same imo youkilis takes over at third, pedroia taking over second, a new first baseman, and prob a new cf seeing how we lost epstien and thats who damon wanted to negotiate with

 

the pitching will also be very similar other than papelbon in the rotaion maybe a new reliever or two and some of our other young guys comin up