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  • Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

    The latest Boston Red Sox free agent and trade rumors, along with notes and tidbits about the team.
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    Matthew Lenz
    In his latest offseason update, Jeff Passan of ESPN states that Nick Pivetta "almost certainly won't accept the qualifying offer to return to Boston; at least a three-year deal awaits Pivetta in free agency." He goes on to specifically name the Cubs, Orioles, and Braves as teams who believe "his stuff plays like a frontline starter".
    It was a somewhat unexpected move for the Red Sox to make a qualifying offer on Pivetta, but it will pay off in the form of a compensation pick in the 2025 MLB Draft depending on the deal he receives in free agency.
    Over his eight year big league career, Pivetta has been one of the more solid and reliable starters in Major League Baseball averaging nearly 130 innings per season with a 4.36 FIP and a 17.4% K-BB rate. In 2024 he bested those careers marks with a 4.07 FIP and a 22.9% K-BB rate. Arguably his biggest red flag is his penchant to give up home runs as an extreme fly ballpitcher, something teams will definitely need to consider if they intend to sign the 32-year-old right hander.
    What's more surprising to you: Pivetta receiving a qualifying offer or possibly rejecting it?
    Matthew Lenz
    In his most recent off-season update, Jeff Passan of ESPN ($$) confimed that "Juan Soto is at the top of the Red Sox want list" and stated the two sides are meeting this week. Many people who cover Major League Baseball expect the 26-year-old Soto will fetch more than $600 million on the free agent market.
    While the Red Sox do have large contracts on their payroll in Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, and Trevor Story, their projected 2025 payroll is about one hundred million less than the levels they were at in the 2010's and their Chief Baseball Operator, Craig Breslow, has committed to "delivering a team that's capable of winning the AL East and making a deep playoff run."
    There's not a lot more that can be said about Juan Soto who is the most coveted free agent, maybe ever. He debuted in 2018 at 19-years-old finishing 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting, and followed that up with a season that garnered him MVP votes and a World Series title. After four-plus seasons with the Nationals and multiple MVP worthy campaigns, he was dealt to the Padres before eventually making his way to the Bronx. In 2024, he posted a .989 OPS with 41 home runs, seven stolen bases, and maybe most impressively a 119:129 K:BB ratio.
    It's inarguable that Soto would be a massive upgrade for the Red Sox, but how much are you willing to fork over for the young superstar? 
     
    Update: here is more information related to Soto and the Red Sox.
     
    Brock Beauchamp
    Roki Sasaki has nudged Juan Soto out of the limelight, at least for a day. The young Japanese phenom announced he will come to Major League Baseball in 2025.
    Sasaki, unlike last year's import Yoshinobu Yamamoto, will post under the minor league rules due to his age and experience in NPB. Remember when Shohei Ohtani came to America to play and all teams were in on him? Same thing here. There will be no $300 million contracts in play as with Yamamoto, meaning most teams should be courting the young right-hander this offseason.
    Sasaki has been simply phenomenal in Japan. He pitched all of the 2024 season as a 22-year-old and only turned 23 this week. In parts of three seasons in NPB, he has a 2.10 ERA and 505 strikeouts in only 394 innings pitched.
    Matthew Lenz
    The Red Sox have been linked to yet another free agent starting pitcher. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Red Sox have shown interest in former Atlanta Braves starter Max Fried.
    The left-hander will be entering his age 31 season after eight seasons with the Braves where he posted a 3.07 ERA / 3.29 FIP and 15.3% K-BB rate across 151 career starts.
    Fried is an extreme ground ball pitcher with an incredibly deep pitch mix. He features four plus pitches including a mid-90s four seam fastball, a curveball, a sinker, and a change up. He also has an effective sweeper and cutter.
    In their annual top 50 free agents predictions, MLBTR suggests that Fried could get a six year pact worth $156 million. Would you like to see the Red Sox nab this lefty off the market?
    Matthew Lenz
    Recently, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported that the Red Sox are showing interest in corner outfielder Teoscar Hernández.
    Coming off one of the best seasons of his career, Hernández bounced back from a down season in 2023 with an .840 OPS, 33 HR, and 12 stolen bases. Although he struggled in the postseason, many Dodgers players attribute him to being the reason they were in the World Series and, in an interview with Morosi, Bob Nightengale stated that he would be surprised if the Dodgers let him walk. The duo also reported that the Baltimore Orioles are showing interest in the former Blue Jay who will be entering his age 32 season in 2025.
    While Hernández did spend time in both corner outfield spots his glove grades far better in right field than it does in left, according the FanGraphs UZR/150 metric. To go along with his power bat, he also showcases a power arm with arm strength in the 70th percentile of all outfielders in 2024. If there's one wart the righty has, it's that his aggressiveness at the plate leads to a high amount of strikeouts and a low number of walks, but it pays off in the long run with his power.
    Would you like to see Teoscar Hernández in a Red Sox uniform?
    Matthew Lenz
    The Red Sox Chief Baseball Operator missed an opportunity to "raise the roof", but he was recently quoted as saying "We know we need to raise the ceiling of the rotation."
    Buster Olney already linked them to Chicago White Sox starter Garrett Crochet, but even if that doesn't pan out the free agent class has plenty of top tier options to frontline the Red Sox starting rotation.
    The cream of the crop includes Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell with hurlers like Max Fried and Jack Flaherty a small tier below those names. They could also look to deepen their rotation by adding one or more of Nathan Eovaldi, Yusei Kikuchi, and Sean Manaea, all of which arguably be upgrades over their current number one Tanner Houck.
    Even without a true "Ace", the 2024 Red Sox starting rotation produced in the top third of baseball. Adding any of the starters would only improve their rotation and better prepare them for some fun in October 2025.
    The only question that remains is which starter(s) should they aggressively pursue?
    Matthew Lenz
    On a recent Baseball Tonight podcast, Buster Olney said "I think it’s a slam dunk he’s going to be traded, and the two teams I’m watching are the Mets and the Red Sox.”
    This would be a great get for a Red Sox team that needs an "Ace" to lead their already solid rotation. While the cost will require a massive amount of prospect capital, Olney further stated that “teams that are trying to acquire Crochet know that he will sign an extension" so this would be more than just a two-year "rental".
    The 25-year-old southpaw became a full-time starter in 2024 after three seasons in a relief role and posted a 3.58 ERA / 2.69 FIP and an elite 29.6% K-BB rate across 146 innings. His 97 mile-per-hour fastball was one of the most effective pitches in baseball holding opponents to a .198 batting average and producing a run value of 15. He also has a cutter, sweeper, and changeup.
    Yes, the price will be immense but acquiring an elite 25-year-old, controllable starter is hard to pass up.
    Brock Beauchamp
    MLB Trade Rumors released their top 35 trade candidates for the 2024-2025 offseason. The only Red Sox player to make the list is outfielder Wilyer Abreu.
    There is consternation from both within and without the organization that the Red Sox need to become less left-handed in 2025. While they have several options to accomplish this goal (Abreu, Triston Casas, and Jarren Duran), Abreu is probably the easiest choice of the three: Casas is a work in progress, Duran is wildly valuable in the here and now, and Abreu sits in the middle. He carries significant value today after a strong rookie campaign (114 OPS+), has lengthy team control at the minimum salary, and can be flipped to fill a need in 2025 without causing catastrophic damage to the Red Sox lineup.
    Matthew Lenz
    The Rangers are reportedly looking to get under the $241MM luxury tax threshold, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. 
    MLBTR goes on to suggest that arbitration eligible players such as RHP Dane Dunning, OF Leody Taveras, and 1B Nathaniel Lowe as possible non-tender candidates. This was not suggested, but one route is to tender these players and then try to trade them to recoup some value. As the Minnesota Twins learned last season with Kyle Farmer, that can be a risky route to take. Other big contracts include Jacob DeGrom and Jon Gray although, considering they already have a need for starting pitching, they may not be overly willing to move those players.
    Looking at the arbitration players, the Red Sox could use any of the three players listed for some added flexibility and depth on their active roster or in their pitching staff. Nathaniel Lowe and Leody Taveras grade out as slightly above average defenders with decent bats, while Dane Dunning has experience as a starter and reliever with moderate success in both roles.
    Given Ray Davis' "number 1 priority" to get under the luxury tax threshold, any of these players could likely be had for a fairly cheap price in addition to their team friendly standing as arbitration eligible players.
    Adolis Garcia is another name they could pursue as a buy-low candidate, although the Texas Rangers may be more inclined to keep outfielder who made headlines during their 2023 World Series run.
    Should the Red Sox pursue any of the Texas Rangers?
    Brock Beauchamp
    Chris Cotillo of MassLive wrote recently that there is desire within the Red Sox organization to pursue 29-year-old Willy Adames and they value the shortstop highly. It's an... interesting... idea that evokes comparisons to the Padres of the past five years in the "gotta catch 'em all" approach to middle infielders. The Sox already have a rather loaded - if inconsistent - infield picture heading into the 2025 season.
    Additionally, there are concerns about Adames' steep defensive fall-off this season. While a plus defender at short in previous seasons, he backslid in almost all metrics in 2024, posting a -16 Defensive Runs Saved and a +0 Outs Above Average. Both stats are far down from Adames's previous two seasons, when he was well above average.
    Matthew Lenz
    Alex Speier of the Boston Globe recently reported that the Red Sox will be aggressive this offseason, quoting Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy as saying “It’s time to take that next step. It really is time. In their reporting, MLBTR cautiously reminds fans of chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments ahead of last offseason.
    The Red Sox enter the offseason with promising depth in the farm system, but have holes to fill in their pitching staff as Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Nick Pivetta are set to be free agents. From a starters perspective, this free agent class is headlined by the likes of Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell with other attractive options including Jack Flaherty and Max Fried. The reliever class lacks an elite name like Burnes or Snell, but does include star power with Aroldis Chapman headlining the group followed by a solid group of high leverage arms in Jeff Hoffman and AJ Minter, among others.
    What names and positions would you like to see the Red Sox pursue this offseason?
    Brock Beauchamp
    Chris Cotillo of MassLive recently reported that there was friction between the Red Sox and Masataka Yoshida earlier this season over an injured left thumb. The Red Sox put Yoshida on the injured list but after an evaluation, decided surgery was not necessary. Yoshida then proceeded to pursue a second and then third opinion on the matter, which apparently rubbed team officials the wrong way. 
    Yoshida has been a capable hitter in the majors, though with very little power. He has a career 111 OPS+ (11% above league average with the stick) but hits left-handed while the Red Sox believe they need to become more right-handed this offseason. Additionally, Yoshida has not shown to be a capable outfielder with Boston slotting him into permanent designated hitter duties in 2024.
    Yoshida is owed $55.8 million over the next three seasons.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Jeff Passan of ESPN reported today that 34-year-old Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano will enter MLB free agency this offseason. 
    Sugano will turn 35 in a week and it's hard to predict what kind of results he can expect against MLB hitters. Once a relatively hard-thrower, the righty now sits around 92 mph and controls six pitches. He's the epitome of a crafty veteran, striking out only six batters per nine innings in NPB.
    Unlike most other Japanese baseball imports, Sugano is an unrestricted free agent. There will be no posting period and all teams can vie for his services as if he was a typical MLB free agent.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Rob Bradford of WEEI tweeted that right-handed slugger Tyler O'Neill talked to Red Sox CBO Craig Breslow and that there is "definitely mutual interest" in returning for the 2025 season and beyond.
    The 29-year-old Canadian outfielder earned $5.85 million playing with the Sox in 2024, slugged 31 home runs, and had his best offensive season since 2021 with the St. Louis Cardinals. He also filled an important niche for the left-hand-dominant Red Sox, posting a 1.180 OPS against left-handed pitching.
    Any contract to O'Neill will require 3+ years at a rather high annual rate. What would you pay to retain the not-yet-30 outfielder?
    Brock Beauchamp
    Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow met with journalists (including The Boston Globe's Alex Speier) in Toronto and mentioned some goals for the Red Sox this winter.
    The key takeaways were an interest in bringing back outfielder Tyler O'Neill for 2025 and beyond. O'Neill, a bounceback candidate coming out of St Louis, bounced back in the biggest way possible this season. He smacked 31 home runs and posted a 131 OPS+. The righty should be in demand this offseason.
    Additionally, Breslow had this to say about the offseason:
    This is an interesting statement in that it's rare to see baseball executives openly suggest they're going to trade away players before the season has even ended. It makes a lot of sense given Boston's left-handedness and trading from positions to strength to fill team weaknesses. But who do you think might be dangled as trade bait this winter?
    Brock Beauchamp
    Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported that Red Sox closer and soon-to-be free agent Kenley Jansen is open to returning to the Red Sox but wants to pitch for a contender in 2025. The 36-year-old right-hander acknowledges he is in the twilight of his career and wants to make the most of his remaining years.
    While Jansen is in the latter-half of his 30s, he has shown few signs of slowing down. In his two seasons with Boston, he has pitched in 102 games with a 125 ERA+ and 111 strikeouts in 96.1 innings pitched.
    Given the volatility of relievers, particularly aging relievers, it's hard to predict what the free agent market will offer Jansen. He may have to settle for a one-year deal but if a desperate team aggressively pursues him, a two-year contract might be in play.
    Would you bring back Jansen for 2025 and what kind of contract would you be willing to offer him?
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