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  • Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

    The latest Boston Red Sox free agent and trade rumors, along with notes and tidbits about the team.
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    Brock Beauchamp
    Alex Speier of The Boston Globe mentioned in a recent write-up that the Seattle Mariners are listening when opposing GMs come calling for Luis Castillo.
    Castillo turns 32 in a few days. A reliable frontline starter for several years, the righty's ERA took a step backward in 2024 but most of his peripherals suggest the situation is far from dire. He lost roughly half a mile per hour on his pitches but metrics such as Stuff+ and Statcast are conflicted on whether the quality of his pitches changed significantly enough to warrant his ERA dropping to roughly league-average.
    Castillo is signed for a little over $24 million per season through 2027 and has a vesting option for 2028 at $25 million.
    The Mariners have one of the best rotations in baseball but spend every season trying to scrape together enough runs to reach meaningful October baseball. There is a good chance they end up dealing some of that pitching for long-term lineup help.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Alex Speier of The Boston Globe wrote on Saturday that "several major league sources" are reporting that the Red Sox have been actively shopping first baseman Triston Casas in trade talks this winter.
    After Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow said earlier that the team was not interested in shopping Casas, something appears to have changed. Coupled with the pursuit of Juan Soto and speculation that Rafael Devers may move off third base, it will be hard to find consistent playing time for Casas if all those stars align.
    Casas, still only 24, posted a 120 OPS+ last season and isn't arbitration-eligible. He is under team control until after the 2028 season.
    Matthew Lenz
    Alex Speier of the Boston Globe is reporting that the Red Sox have requested another meeting with Juan Soto to nail down a price point for the superstar services.
    It remains to be seen whether the meeting will happen, but it's hard not to be excited about the Red Sox delivering on their promise to do what it takes to build one of the best rosters in baseball.
    What is the MAXIMUM years and dollars you'd be willing to give Soto?
    Matthew Lenz
    The sweepstakes for the prized possession of the 2025 Free Agent class is possibly nearing its end.
    Yesterday, Andy Martino of SNY stated "Everyone I talk to who's involved in this at any level believes that the news will drop this week, before [the Winter Meetings in] Dallas." 
    J.P. Hoopstra of Newsweek disputed that rumor citing Soto's agent, Scott Boras.
    Marino Pepén took it a step further, indicating the Mets, Red Sox, and Blue Jays (in that order) are the finalists for the superstars services.
    Last week, Hector Gomez reported that the Red Sox made an offer of 13 years, $625 million. Despite quite a bit of skepticism from fans and other insiders alike, this was largely confirmed by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
    Whether the sweepstakes ends ahead of the Winter Meetings or not, the Red Sox are still in the running for the superstar. If the reports are true, they're current behind the New York Mets as favorites.

    Do you think the Red Sox should up their ante for a second time?
    Matthew Lenz
    UPDATE: it's being widely reported, that a deal has been agreed upon.
    The Boston Red Sox are on the verge of nearing a deal with left-handed reliever Aroldis Chapman.
     
    Details of the potential deal have not been leaked anywhere, but the power pitcher is entering his age-37 season and has inked back-to-back one-year deals with the Kansas City Royals in 2023 and Pittsburgh Pirates in 2024 worth $3.75 million and $10.5 million, respectively. After a solid but unspectacular season with the Pirates, I'd imagine he would get something between those two figures on a short-term deal.
    With the Pirates, Chapman made 68 appearances sporting a 3.79 ERA / 2.96 FIP and a 22.3% K-BB rate. Even as he's in the twilight of his career, he's been able to maintain one of the fastest four-seamers in baseball, although hitters have found more success against the offering as of late as it carried a -1 run value in 2024. He also has a sinker and slider that he uses to generate soft contact and high whiff rates.
    What do you think about the Red Sox landing Chapman?
    Matthew Lenz
    While we were enjoying our Thanksgiving rumors were swirling about the Red Sox and Juan Soto. If you filter through the noise, one credible source provided details on the Red Sox offer to superstar Juan Soto.

    Baseball Twitter was quick to react to Gomez's information -- mostly trying to discredit the insider. Gomez fired back with a reminder from 2022 when he was in on the Rafael Devers extension.
    Bottom-line: Gomez is a very credible source in the industry and there's no reason to think he would share information that wasn't vetted.
    The ~$48 million AAV would put him as the highest or 2nd highest in baseball depending on how you consider Shohei Ohtani's heavily deferred contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
    What are your thoughts on the offer?
    Matthew Lenz
    With one left-handed starter off the market, Jon Morosi of the MLB Network stoked the hot stove by stating that we should "pay close attention to the Boston Red Sox" in the Garrett Crochet trade market.
    He goes on to point out the Red Sox farm system having the capital to get a deal done. An interesting note that goes against a previous rumor is that the White Sox are so far away from their competitive window that they are looking for prospects who haven't debuted yet instead of putting together a deal headlined by Wilyer Abreu.
    The Red Sox have also been tied to Corbin Burnes and southpaw Max Fried, and of course superstar Juan Soto.
    If the Red Sox were to only net one of three pitchers named, which would be your preference? Keep in mind, any deal involving Crochet would come with the understanding that he would ink a long-term extension.
    Matthew Lenz
    Juan Soto spent last week meeting with a variety of teams including our Red Sox. While the meeting with the Red Sox was introductory and didn't include discussions about money, we now know what the 26-year-old superstar is looking for in a deal.
    Marino Pepén reports that Soto is looking for a 12-14 year deal with an average annual salary of $45 million and would like opt outs after years three and four.
    That deal would put him in the ballpark of the $600 million that many have speculated he would net this offseason.
    The opt-outs is a newer trend amongst some of the leagues top players, including the Minnesota Twins Carlos Correa and the Chicago Cubs Cody Bellinger, so it isn't totally surprising for Soto to make that request.
    For the New York Yankees in 2024, Soto posted a .989 OPS with 41 home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 119:129 K:BB ratio.
    Would you be comfortable with the Red Sox meeting these demands?
    Matthew Lenz
    Jon Heyman of the New York Post ($$) writes that Bregman’s camp has fielded interest from the Red Sox, in addition to the Detroit Tigers and receiving a formal offer from the Houston Astros.
    While the Red Sox have a larger need to lockdown an Ace for their starting rotation, signing the 31-year-old wouldn't necessarily take them out of the race to add another big contract. President of Baseball Operations, Sam Kennedy, recently talked about their willingness to spend to compete for an AL East title and to make a deep playoff run.
    The fit with Bergman is an interesting one. Earlier in the offseason, he stated he would be willing to move off third so there is a possibility he could play at the keystone for the Red Sox. Another possibility is shifting Rafael Devers to 1st, a move that is likely to happen at some point anyway, and then keep the 2024 Gold Glove winner at the hot corner. The latter move would have more implications on the roster as it would push Casas off of first, possibly into a full-time designated hitter role, which then would impact Masataka Yoshida's role on the team. 
    Bregman posted a .768 OPS in 2024 with 26 home runs and a very good 13.6% strikeout rate. In their Free Agent Prediction article, MLBTR put Bregman at a 7 year, $182 million deal.
    Assuming it wouldn't impact spending elsewhere, would be in favor of bringing in Bregman for that much money?
    Matthew Lenz
    According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic the Red Sox met with Blake Snell recently ($$). This is now the frontline fourth starter that the Red Sox have been tied, which isn't surprising as it is the number one need for a team that looks to get back to the playoffs in 2025 for the first time in three seasons.
    Snell, who pitched in the spacious confines of Oracle Park for the San Francisco Giants in 2025, also met with the Los Angeles Dodgers this week. The 32-year-old lefty made 20 starts for the bay area team posting a 3.12 ERA / 2.43 FIP and a very good K-BB rate of 24.2% generating elite whiff and quality of contact metrics. Not only is there a clear need on the Red Sox roster, but  throughout his career he his adjusted home runs by park has produced 11 fewer home runs in Fenway Park as compared to the 115 that he has actually surrendered. Although injuries have been a concern, he has produced two Cy Young seasons in his healthiest campaigns (2018, 2023) where he exceeded 30 starts.
    Snell's arsenal features one of the best curveballs in the game that produced a 49.8 whiff rate, as well as an above average 96 mile-per-hour four seam fastball that held opposing hitters to a .200 batting average in 2024. He also has a very good change up and slider despite their below average movement profiles.
    Of all the pitchers the Red Sox have been tied to, which one would you like them to add the most?
    Matthew Lenz
    Red Sox President of Baseball Operations, Sam Kennedy, was recently quoted as saying the team could afford another to add another massive contract to their payroll stating "If that's what it takes, yeah, absolutely".
    The 2025 payroll is currently estimated to be just north of $130 million while they were sitting almost $100 million more than that in a disappointing 2024 season. While they already have $313 million dedicated to Rafael Devers, they've been tied to the biggest names on the Free Agent market, including Juan Soto, Willy Adames, Blake Snell, Max Friend, and Nathan Eovaldi. They've also had preliminary talks with the Chicago White Sox on a deal for Garrett Crochet and, if they were to acquire him, it would be understood that he would sign a spendy extension.
    Missing the playoffs in back-to-back-to-back seasons, Kennedy went on to say "there is an extreme urgency to compete for an AL East championship and make a deep playoff run in 2025." There is belief internally and externally that the Red Sox will be a force for most of the next decade with a strong core at the Major League level and one of the better farm systems in all of baseball. Signing a top end Free Agent or two, would only solidify that belief and set them up nicely to compete with the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles. Of course, you can't sleep on the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays in what may be the best division in baseball from top to bottom.
    In the words of Kennedy, "[it's] going to take shrewd investment in free agency, shrewd trades, and dedicated player development in the Major Leagues on down" if they plan on making good on their large 2025 and future goals.
    Matthew Lenz
    Per Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Boston Red Sox have shown interested in shortstop Willy Adames.
    While Adames has said he is open to moving off of shortstop, I speculate that the Red Sox would likely keep him there and move Trevor Story to the Keystone.
    Adames, who has played for the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers, will be entering his age 29 season in 2025 and coming off a campaign where he slashed .251/.331/.462 with 32 homeruns and 21 stolen bases. He also provides a plus glove at one of the most important positions on the field. One thing to consider for the Sox is how his batted ball profile fits in Fenway Park as his expected homerun output was more than 20% less than his actual output. 
    In their Free Agent predictions, MLBTR projected Adames to get a six year, $160MM deal.
    Are you willing to pay that for one of the best shortstops in the game?
    Matthew Lenz

    Red Sox, Juan Soto Meet

    By Matthew Lenz in Rumors,

    The Red Sox and Juan Soto met on Wednesday in what was described as a "productive" first meeting by Sean McAdam of MassLive.
    Representing the Red Sox was team president Sam Kennedy, Chief Baseball Operator Craig Breslow, and field manager Alex Cora. The meeting reportedly lasted three hours and served to simply introduce Soto to the team and organization. From McAdam's report, "The Red Sox laid out their plans for the future and highlighted the crop of soon-to-be-arriving top prospects while giving a detailed outline of ownership and Fenway Sports Group." Any potential talk about money and years was not a topic of conversation.
    McAdam goes on to state that Soto was "impressed" by the Red Sox presentation. The 26-year-old is set to meet with multiple teams including the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays.
    Soto is expected to receive a contract north of 10 years and $500 million. How high should the Red Sox go?
    Matthew Lenz
    On the "Foul Territory" podcast, Sean McAdam of MassLive.com was quoted as saying "I was told that the White Sox have interest in [Wilyer] Abreu and would be satisfied with him headlining -- obviously, not being the only guy in the deal."
    This should be viewed as a positive development for the Red Sox who have a surplus in the outfield, especially with prospects Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony close to getting a shot on the Big League roster. They also have a need to diversify their heavy left-handed line up and recently been tied to right-handed hitting outfielder Tesoscar Hernandez.
    Abreu is coming off a Gold Glove rookie season at just 25-years-old while carrying a .781 OPS, hitting 15 runs, and stealing 8 bases. His power-over-contact approach results in quality batted ball data but also causes him to chase, whiff, and strikeout at above average rates. 
    There hasn't been any indication or substantive rumors as to who the additional piece(s) might be to get the deal done, but McAdam would go on to say "They'd have to put in much more than that, including a pretty good prospect to go with him."
    So what else do you think needs to be added to the deal for the Red Sox to acquire this young Ace?
    Matthew Lenz
    Rob Bradford of WEEI 93.7 is reporting that the Red Sox are one of several teams interested in 35-year-old right-handed starter Nathan Eovaldi.
    Eovaldi was previously with the Red Sox from 2018 to 2022 posting a 4.08 ERA / 3.73 FIP and helped the organization win the 2018 World Series. He has spent the previous two seasons with the Texas Rangers where he carried a 3.72 ERA / 3.86 FIP and won a second World Series in 2023.
    Specifically in 2024, Eovaldi had a 17.8% K-BB rate across 170 2/3 innings pitched, showing an ability to command the strike zone better than most anyone in baseball with chase and walk rates in the 80th percentile or better of all pitchers. One thing that has seemingly changed since his time in Boston is the effectiveness of his 95 mile-per-hour four-seam fastball that saw batters hit just .212 against the offering and had a run value of +7. This can at least be partly attributed to his four seamer having more glove side movement than it did with the Red Sox.
    The organization have made their intentions extremely clear in both words and actions. Craig Breslow has stated he is looking to build a team that can make a deep postseason run in 2025 and has now been tied to starting pitchers Max Fried, Garrett Crochet, and now Nathan Eovaldi, as well as outfield bats Juan Soto and Teoscar Hernandez. Now it's just a matter of who the purse most heavily and whether or not they can close the deal.
    Would you be interested in an Eovaldi reunion? If so, at what cost?
    Matthew Lenz
    In his latest offseason update, Jeff Passan of ESPN states that Nick Pivetta "almost certainly won't accept the qualifying offer to return to Boston; at least a three-year deal awaits Pivetta in free agency." He goes on to specifically name the Cubs, Orioles, and Braves as teams who believe "his stuff plays like a frontline starter".
    It was a somewhat unexpected move for the Red Sox to make a qualifying offer on Pivetta, but it will pay off in the form of a compensation pick in the 2025 MLB Draft depending on the deal he receives in free agency.
    Over his eight year big league career, Pivetta has been one of the more solid and reliable starters in Major League Baseball averaging nearly 130 innings per season with a 4.36 FIP and a 17.4% K-BB rate. In 2024 he bested those careers marks with a 4.07 FIP and a 22.9% K-BB rate. Arguably his biggest red flag is his penchant to give up home runs as an extreme fly ballpitcher, something teams will definitely need to consider if they intend to sign the 32-year-old right hander.
    What's more surprising to you: Pivetta receiving a qualifying offer or possibly rejecting it?
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