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  • Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

    The latest Boston Red Sox free agent and trade rumors, along with notes and tidbits about the team.
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    Davy Andrews
    Some of us have been waiting for this day for quite a while. This morning, Baseball Prospectus released its rankings for the top 100 prospects across baseball. Unsurprisingly, Roman Anthony is still ranked number one. The big news is that Kristian Campbell's incredible 2024 season has pushed him all the way up to number three. Marcelo Mayer checks in at number 25. No other Red Sox prospects made the list, which is unsurprising after the amount of prospect capital they moved in order to get Garrett Crochet and Carlos Narváez. The Dodgers are the only team with two prospects in the top 10 and three in the top 25.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Alex Speier of The Boston Globe wrote that the Red Sox are pursuing extensions of one or all of their "Big Three" prospects: Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer.
    Frankly, it'd be surprising if the Sox weren't interested in extending any of these players, particularly Anthony, who spent much of last year as the consensus #1 prospect in baseball.
    Teams have been wildly successful in extending some of the best prospects in baseball as or even before they play a major league game. Last season, the Brewers inked outfielder Jackson Chourio to a long-term deal with multiple team options while he was still a teenager. Chourio unsurprisingly scuffled early in the 2024 season before becoming a dark horse in the Rookie of the Year balloting, completing the season with a 3.9 fWAR in 148 games played.
    Davy Andrews
    According to Katie Woo, who covers the Cardinals for The Athletic, the Cardinals are running out of options in their quest to clear Nolan Arenado's salary from their books. After Arenado, who has a full no-trade clause, nixed the idea of being traded to the Astros, "there has been next to no traction in his trade talks," she wrote. Arenado was open to the Dodgers, but they weren't interested. The Yankees checked in, but weren't willing to pay what the Cardinals wanted. That leaves the Red Sox. Woo wrote, "Multiple league sources indicate the Red Sox represent Arenado's last chance to get dealt before the 2025 season."
    Alex Mayes wrote about the possibility of trading for Arenado here at Talk Sox this morning, but the extent of Boston's interest in Arenado is unclear. The 33-year-old is owed $74 million over the next three years and is coming off the worst two-season stretch of his career. He would represent a clear defensive upgrade at third base, but the Red Sox would have to displace franchise cornerstone Rafael Devers in order to make room for him.
    Davy Andrews
    On Monday night, Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors wrote that Chris Martin is signing a one-year deal with the Rangers. This outcome always seemed the likeliest, as the 38-year-old Martin lives in Texas and had made it known that he was looking to retire after 2025 and wanted to spend his final season pitching closer to home. All the same, it's a sad day for the Red Sox. It's hard to overstate just how good Martin has been, not just with the Red Sox over the past two years, but over his entire career. Martin has a career 2.96 FIP. This century, among the 366 different relievers who have thrown at least 300 innings, that ranks 25th. Since 2020, 70 relievers have thrown at least 200 innings. Among that group, Martin's 2.66 ERA ranks ninth. The Red Sox have added to the bullpen this offseason, but they haven't added anyone with a consistent track record for success like Martin's, and they're sure to miss him.
    Davy Andrews
    The Red Sox weren't publicly linked to Gleyber Torres in any prominent fashion. However, now that the Tigers have signed the second baseman, Evan Petznold of the Detroit Free Press reports that the Red Sox were one of many, many teams in on him. The list also includes the Reds, Guardians, Angels, Giants, Blue Jays and Nationals. Torres is coming off a slightly down season, but has been a solid second baseman since his debut in 2018. The Red Sox have an obvious need at second base, and Torres was apparently insistent on a one-year deal, which would fit with their recent predilections. So far this offseason, the only player the Sox have signed to a multi-year deal was Patrick Sandoval, who is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and will only have one full year with the team.
    Throughout the offseason, I have been tracking teams that were reported to have interest in a player after they signed or got traded elsewhere. The Red Sox have appeared on the list eight times. No other team has been on it more than five times.
    Brock Beauchamp
    David Schoenfield of ESPN wrote that the Red Sox are one of several teams vying for Alex Bregman's services in 2025 and beyond. The list of teams is a collection of baseball heavyweights so competition may be fierce; along with the Boston Sox, interested parties include the Philadelphia Phillies, both New York teams, and the Houston Astros.
    Bregman will play his age-31 season in 2025. He posted a 118 OPS+ last season and has a career 132 mark. Those are impressive but what Bregman would bring to the Red Sox infield is defensive stability at the hot corner: he has a career +27 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) and +22 OAA (Outs Above Average).
    And as our own Davy Andrews wrote early in the offseason, Bregman is a great fit to dent the Monster on a nightly basis.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Jon Morosi tweeted a nugget: the Red Sox aren't done pursuing starters.
    If this is true, CBO Craig Breslow is serious about stabilizing the Red Sox rotation for 2025 and beyond. The Mariners have a slew of good starters but have stated they're not keen on the idea of trading the young cost-controlled core of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo.
    The Mariners also have 32-year-old Luis Castillo rostered, who could likely be had for a reasonable prospect return due to the fact he is owed roughly $24 million per season through 2027 with a $25 million vesting option in 2028.
    The Red Sox are now reduced to a "Big Three" with the removal of Kyle Teel in the Garrett Crochet trade. If they decide to pursue one of Gilbert, Kirby, or Miller it's likely that will be reduced to a "Big Two".
     
    Brock Beauchamp
    Chris Cotillo of Mass Live wrote that the Red Sox are preparing an offer for free-agent starting pitcher Corbin Burnes.
    The Sox have had a rough week, losing two bidding wars against New York teams: Juan Soto ended up in Queens while Max Fried ended up in the rival Bronx.
    It feels slightly odd that it is being reported Boston is "preparing an offer" this late in the game. Is it their initial offer or a revised offer in the wake of losing two of their targets early in this offseason?
    Burnes himself has questions lingering around him. He's the closest thing to an "innings eater" we see in the modern game, pitching at least 167 innings a season every year since 2021. He also peaked in 2021, winning the National League Cy Young award with Milwaukee.
    Since that time, Burnes peripherals have been trending down in a problematic way. His strikeout percentage peaked at 30.4% in his award-winning season but has dropped each season since, ending up at only 17.0% in 2024. Burnes is 30 years old through the 2025 season.
    Matthew Lenz
    Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe ($$) is reporting that the Red Sox are interested in right-handed starting pitcher Walker Buehler. He's another name of the laundry list of pitchers who have been tied to the team, including Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell (before he was signed). That doesn't include trade candidates such as Garrett Crochet, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo.
    What makes this report surprising is that Buehler, a former top prospect, is coming off an abysmal 2024 season upon his return from Tommy John surgery. The surgery forced him to miss the better part of two seasons and upon his return he posted a 5.38 ERA / 5.54 FIP with a lowly 10.5% K-BB rate.
    Previously, Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow had spoken of raising the ceiling to compete for the AL East and to make a deep playoff run, yet Buehler is more of a high-risk bounce back arm. While there is upside to bet on with Buehler, it's just not the type of move I'd expect the Red Sox to make given the previous statements made by Breslow.
    Earlier this offseason, MLB Trade Rumors predicted the 30-year-old to get a one year deal worth $15 million. Would you want the Red Sox to sign him for that number? Or at all?
    Brock Beauchamp
    According to WEEI Sports in a recent roundup, after losing out on Juan Soto the Red Sox are prioritizing Alex Bregman per sources.
    Bregman, a long-time Astro, will play his age 32 season in 2025. He fills several needs that should interest the Red Sox: he's right-handed, is a good defender at third base, and is the type of all-around player that makes it easier to move Rafael Devers off the hot corner.
    In an offseason where pitchers have flown off the market for more than expected, we're still unsure how the position player market will shake out. Bregman also has the Qualifying Offer attached to his services so the signing team will lose a draft pick by acquiring him. Time will tell whether this suppresses team interest.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Alex Speier of The Boston Globe mentioned in a recent write-up that the Seattle Mariners are listening when opposing GMs come calling for Luis Castillo.
    Castillo turns 32 in a few days. A reliable frontline starter for several years, the righty's ERA took a step backward in 2024 but most of his peripherals suggest the situation is far from dire. He lost roughly half a mile per hour on his pitches but metrics such as Stuff+ and Statcast are conflicted on whether the quality of his pitches changed significantly enough to warrant his ERA dropping to roughly league-average.
    Castillo is signed for a little over $24 million per season through 2027 and has a vesting option for 2028 at $25 million.
    The Mariners have one of the best rotations in baseball but spend every season trying to scrape together enough runs to reach meaningful October baseball. There is a good chance they end up dealing some of that pitching for long-term lineup help.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Alex Speier of The Boston Globe wrote on Saturday that "several major league sources" are reporting that the Red Sox have been actively shopping first baseman Triston Casas in trade talks this winter.
    After Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow said earlier that the team was not interested in shopping Casas, something appears to have changed. Coupled with the pursuit of Juan Soto and speculation that Rafael Devers may move off third base, it will be hard to find consistent playing time for Casas if all those stars align.
    Casas, still only 24, posted a 120 OPS+ last season and isn't arbitration-eligible. He is under team control until after the 2028 season.
    Matthew Lenz
    Alex Speier of the Boston Globe is reporting that the Red Sox have requested another meeting with Juan Soto to nail down a price point for the superstar services.
    It remains to be seen whether the meeting will happen, but it's hard not to be excited about the Red Sox delivering on their promise to do what it takes to build one of the best rosters in baseball.
    What is the MAXIMUM years and dollars you'd be willing to give Soto?
    Matthew Lenz
    The sweepstakes for the prized possession of the 2025 Free Agent class is possibly nearing its end.
    Yesterday, Andy Martino of SNY stated "Everyone I talk to who's involved in this at any level believes that the news will drop this week, before [the Winter Meetings in] Dallas." 
    J.P. Hoopstra of Newsweek disputed that rumor citing Soto's agent, Scott Boras.
    Marino Pepén took it a step further, indicating the Mets, Red Sox, and Blue Jays (in that order) are the finalists for the superstars services.
    Last week, Hector Gomez reported that the Red Sox made an offer of 13 years, $625 million. Despite quite a bit of skepticism from fans and other insiders alike, this was largely confirmed by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
    Whether the sweepstakes ends ahead of the Winter Meetings or not, the Red Sox are still in the running for the superstar. If the reports are true, they're current behind the New York Mets as favorites.

    Do you think the Red Sox should up their ante for a second time?
    Matthew Lenz
    UPDATE: it's being widely reported, that a deal has been agreed upon.
    The Boston Red Sox are on the verge of nearing a deal with left-handed reliever Aroldis Chapman.
     
    Details of the potential deal have not been leaked anywhere, but the power pitcher is entering his age-37 season and has inked back-to-back one-year deals with the Kansas City Royals in 2023 and Pittsburgh Pirates in 2024 worth $3.75 million and $10.5 million, respectively. After a solid but unspectacular season with the Pirates, I'd imagine he would get something between those two figures on a short-term deal.
    With the Pirates, Chapman made 68 appearances sporting a 3.79 ERA / 2.96 FIP and a 22.3% K-BB rate. Even as he's in the twilight of his career, he's been able to maintain one of the fastest four-seamers in baseball, although hitters have found more success against the offering as of late as it carried a -1 run value in 2024. He also has a sinker and slider that he uses to generate soft contact and high whiff rates.
    What do you think about the Red Sox landing Chapman?
    Matthew Lenz
    While we were enjoying our Thanksgiving rumors were swirling about the Red Sox and Juan Soto. If you filter through the noise, one credible source provided details on the Red Sox offer to superstar Juan Soto.

    Baseball Twitter was quick to react to Gomez's information -- mostly trying to discredit the insider. Gomez fired back with a reminder from 2022 when he was in on the Rafael Devers extension.
    Bottom-line: Gomez is a very credible source in the industry and there's no reason to think he would share information that wasn't vetted.
    The ~$48 million AAV would put him as the highest or 2nd highest in baseball depending on how you consider Shohei Ohtani's heavily deferred contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
    What are your thoughts on the offer?
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