JoeBrady
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Everything posted by JoeBrady
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I doubt you get Painter for Duran, unless DD knows Painter is damaged goods.
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$110M/4 sounds slightly, but certainly close enough. But we should still target a #2 in a trade for Duran+ or Abreu+. We need two SPs.
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I agree. He's only just 19, so there is time, but imvho, just focus on pitching. Get velo up to a consistent 98 and see what happens.
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I'd guess that the chances of us offering him arb is about -0-. Over the past three years, he's averaged 17 HRs with a .252, he's a lefty, slow and doesn't provide a lot of defense. He gone.
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I'm not sue why the RS would be cautiously optimistic. We're probably slightly better off if he leaves. He had a fine year, but it was his first one in a while. I wouldn't bet on him being as healthy or productive going forward.
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I don't like that he's a lefty, and his contract is about 3 years too long. We can get similar overall production from Alonso for shorter years at a younger age.
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It is situation-dependent. If the NYY, NYM, LAD and Philly pass on Alonso, we will have best chance of signing him. But even that depends on our other needs. If we sign Cease, then our chances of adding Alonso falls quite a bit.
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If they non-tendered him, he'd be gone tomorrow. He stays.
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Casas. In the three years prior to 2025, Casas had a 126 OPS+ and nominally plays a position.
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I'll put this in the Realmuto category of "anything can happen, but is extremely unlikely".
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I'm not sure how many teams commit a lot of money to DHs. And I don't think Philly has the money for both Alonso and Schwarber.
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You could easily be right. Great talent, but mediocre results. Maybe with a better pitching coach, of is he a head case? And only two years left. It's crazy how hot and cold he runs.
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We need to trade him. We don't have a position for him and won't for a while. And there is a decidedly non-zero chance he doesn't work out like we'd hope for a year ago.
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SF 'probably' goes with Eldridge, even though they promoted him about one year too early. LAA will stick with Schanuel, and the Phillies still with Harper. And we have little chance of out-bidding the Mets. If the Mets pass on Alonso, we should really sign him, regardless of Casas' upside or downside.
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There is a -0- chance that Casas gets non-tendered. He still has serious upside. Traded? Maybe. Houck is close. Assuming he is gone for 2026, and earns $8M for 26-27, he is probably worth keeping.
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The RS will likely only add one #2 type SP, and then maybe sign a lower-tier #4-5. The Nats might trade Gore, but it would be for kids. It would have to start with either Mayer+ or Campbell+.
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He could be good, despite his bad K/W in his rookie year. But the question would remain, why trade talent to obtain a top-30 catching prospect, when we already have a catcher? I'd much prefer to trade for a pitcher or infielder of a similar value.
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He didn't clear 200 because of injuries and ability concerns. In 2025, he averaged 196/600 ABs, and in 2024, he averaged 199 per 600. That's close enough to a 200K season.
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Most of this is unlikely to happen. I have no idea why anyone would want Hoskins or Bell over Casas, unless we find some trade value for him. Replacing Casas with Alonso is definitely interesting. Replacing Casas with Hoskins or Bell just adds expense, and probably a downgrade in talent.
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There is a -0- chance of him being non-tendered. A trade is a far more interesting subject.
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It should be no one, but I think Cincy would be the team to bail. Weaker GMs I think want sure wins so as not to look foolish.
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He has value. Teams that need a 1B with a small budget will consider that he's injured, but also consider that he had a career OPS+ of 126 before last year and three years left. In many ways, it is identical to Greene. He only had 19 GS last year. You're not going to ignore the injury factor and you're not going ignore the talent.
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I get what you're saying, but imho, he's already lost the important ten pounds. If he can continue to lose 1-2 pounds a year, that works for me.
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My thinking is that Alonso has no shot at 7. I think teams will max out at 5, if that. I just don't see a lot of competition. NYMs first and foremost, but they have alternatives. No interest in competing against them. The other 28 teams look like they have money, but no need. Or a need, but not enough money. Or a need + money, but with competing interests. I think we get him for four years, and maybe in the range of $100M/4. If Casas can get us an appropriate return, I'd make the move.
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IRT to Ceddanne, he improved his K/W from 151/15 to 117/28 in one year. I think he could easily become an above average hitter.
