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drewski6

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Everything posted by drewski6

  1. drewski6
    Why even bother with Castillo (drewski adds: right now)? I dont think it makes sense for Sea nor Boston to engage in these trades right now. While Harmony does seem to underrate the trade values of Bos players/prospects, I do think he is correct that Castillo's value is likely to rise once the remaining top 2 FA pitchers come off the board. Y'all know how this works. The Orioles, Yankees, Giants, Blue Jays, Mets, and Im sure a couple dark horse teams are in on the remaining 2 starters. Those that miss out will look to the next tier down, but also the trade market. At this point, when "signing an equiv starter for just cash" is no longer an option, the trade values of Crochet and Castillo will rise (maybe not as much for Castillo if you lump him in with Eovaldi and not Fried/Burnes), but yes it should still go up somewhat. Its not crazy to suggest that due to supply/demand, teams will have to "overpay" per BTV for a trade for a starter. If the Orioles get Burnes and the Yankees get Fried and the mets trade for crochet, you better believe the sox will be looking to make an overpay on the trade front. I dont know about Mayer for Castillo level overpay, but certainly some kind of overpay. SO it makes sense for teams looking to deal a starter to wait (for me). Regarding the Sox, also wait. Lets see if we get Soto. If not, they will make a strong push for Fried and/or Burnes and may land one. So lets see where the dust settles with the free agents before engaging Seattle in a trade.
  2. drewski6
    They care about their friends more than they care about your prospects. Its a brotherhood and prospects arent in until they are.
  3. drewski6
    Id go positive, personally, if the bidding on Fried and Burnes goes nutty.
  4. drewski6
    You can get around BTV pay-wall by searching for the player , and just grabbing his TV from a proposed trade. Hes at -6. Regressing? Maybe. But 2 years ago he was one of the very best pitchers in baseball. And that contract isnt bad and only has 3 years left. Id be interested at a price of -6 trade value units. And not to dump Yoshida, because I want Castillo because I think hes good.
  5. drewski6
    Id do Wilyer, Bleis, Arias.
  6. drewski6
    I like Cespedes and Perales both quite a bit. Id do Bleis, Arias, Meidroth all day. But I think Wilyer goes in the deal.
  7. drewski6
    My thinking is that by Sotos age 35 season +, inflation will make whatever AAV he has for the last few years not look like an albatross even if some regression.
  8. drewski6
    In the context of giving Soto 12-14 years, do you agree (at least in small part) that whatever we give Soto (lets say 50M per) will not be the top of the market in year 10? If Soto gets 50m in 2024, I predict that by 2030 - there will be 5-10 position players making 55M+ and by 2034 (deep into the deal) 50m per will be well above avg for a starting position player but no longer considered superstar money. I dont think inflation stops inflating next 10 years.
  9. drewski6
    At first I was surprised that Abreu trade value seemed to have surpassed Casas , but I feel like Ive grown to understand why and see it as justified. Especially because Abreu is rock-solid defensively.
  10. drewski6
    Ive wondered this as well, especially because it was a non contact injury that arose from wear and tear from violently swinging the bat. Its not like hes not going to continue swinging when he bats.
  11. drewski6
    Sure, hes over a k/inning and his FIP averages out to high 3's last 4 years. Hes a fine fallback if the bidding on Fried and Burnes gets nutty. What I dont want to see ; however, is Fried and Burnes sign for 6-7 years at 28M and then we sign Manea for 3 years at 25M. Because then it will feel like we 90% of the AAV of a tier 1 FA for a tier 2 FA.
  12. drewski6
    And I also think that if they get Soto, they'll still try to get one of the top 3 FA starters. But try being the operative word. But I mean literally try and not pretend to try for PR
  13. drewski6
    I believe they'll make a strong offer, but it wont be a blank check, and it may be a blank check from the Mets. Should that be the case, first of all, bummer. Second of all, at least its then easier to justify getting one (or maybe 2) of the top 3 FA starters. Personally, I think Id rather get 1 of Burnes, Fried, Snell and get another starter via trade (than 2 of the aforementioned 3). I do think that if they miss on Soto, they will get a potent bat somewhere (whether it be Hernandez, Adames, Bregman, Guerrero, Alonso)....Someone (along with a top 3 starter). Or at least make "strong" offers. And I dont mean "make an offer to say you did" (like our half-hearted attempt to get Teoscar last year). I mean a real effort, but you dont know where the chips will fall. Thats obvs worst case (and not in small part because it would be a continuation of a trend) - falling just short with competitive offers but falling short and falling back to the mid-tiers on inflated AAVs because you fell short on the true difference makers.
  14. drewski6
    Agreed, it feels to me with Story, Campbell, Cedanne covering some MI, Hamilton, Sogard.....Grissom has a bit of a mountain (lets call it a large hill) to climb to get regular PT
  15. drewski6
    And you are creating some 40 man openings with the Crochet trade.
  16. drewski6
    I do worry a bit about 40 man roster space, but I assume there are guys that can get DFA'd
  17. drewski6
    I like it. I would just add that I doubt that Grissom would win the job with options such as moving Rafaela to infield (to get ANthony in there) or a stratight swap of Grissom for Kristian Campbell. Obviously, we dont need to commit to Grissom as an everyday player if a prospect wins a major league job and I suspect one will at some point. There will, of course, also be injury attrition. But if you consider that you dont have Roman Anthony or Campbell on this 26 man, they are serving as depth and thats good depth.
  18. drewski6
    I wouldnt be shocked at all if Arrenado resurges. Not saying Id expect it or reflect it and what Im willing to give up , but 5 years ago this guy had hall-of-fame caliber years. He was a true stud. Not implying that Im regardless of cost.
  19. drewski6
    Flipped for Crochet?
  20. drewski6
    Hes a smiling lefty with a larger than life bat, Ortiz is the comp.
  21. drewski6
    Agreed with all. Just to add : another possibility is that both Soto and Anthony have great careers for the sox. You want Soto regardless of whether Anthony becomes a superstar.
  22. drewski6
    More than anything , Im sick of the 1-2 deals for mediocre players with inflated AAVs. Player x is 32 years old, and would cost you 24m. Hes a #2 starter at prestent. BUt you avoid cuz hes getting 4 year deals and you want to keep him to 3 years Player y is 32 years old and is a #3/4 starter. So you go here because hes willing to accept a 1 yr deal at 17M. Thers not as much upside with player y, even if he works out, hes gone after this year. And you may worry that player x wont be a #2 starter on the back 2 years of a hypothetical 4 year deal, but theres a good chance that by then 24m wont even be the going rate for a #2 starter anymore. Inflation, inflation , inflation. I understand the reasons why we would go short in recent past. Try to give the prospects time while you keep the team at least watchable. But now that we are strategizing about turning a corner, its time to prioritize quality over fear of getting stuck with an underwater contract.
  23. drewski6
    I prefer trades to free agents, but I dont share your avoidance of free agents. Id rather have a guy who makes 20m, and provides the WAR of a 10m guy then not have him and be 20m under budget. And I also think you can get yourself into trouble with the band-aids and stop caps and short term commitments to guys who will take them. I think thats part of the problem. A revolving door of bad pitchers on 1-2 year deals and you are not even saving that much $$ cuz the AAVs still add up. Let the prospects serve as depth and work their way in. Theres nothing to be gained by avoiding free agents from a wins perspective. And I dont mean just empty the budget with disregard. Of course, only go after players you like. But if you always avoid free agents, what exactly the point of keeping budget room. You just wont use it. Of course, you could use it resigning guys, but thats kind of prioritizing guys just because they happen to have already been here. Meritocracy. If there are better first baseman than Casas dont use your money on casas just because it would be an extension and not a free agent. You also want to look at the last time the market was reset. If guys are going for the same rate that they were 5 years ago, you want to pounce and sign guys (with term on those contracts). Cuz inflation is real and if guys are signing for the same rate they were 5 years ago, thats not gonna last long. Eventually, the salaries will catch up and reflect inflation.
  24. drewski6
    Thats fair regarding the offense finding a way to replace the departures year after year. But I dont want to be counting on Story to stay healthy or Casas to be consistent. If you take projected lineup with no position player additions, its not like its great. It may be okay, but whats the goal here? Build the best team possible. Any pitcher you sign has a 35% chance of getting hurt or just falling off a cliff. Bats are more reliable. ANd the team is still too lefty heavy. Id be okay with only one impact bat, and I would very much like it to be Soto. But if Soto doesnt come, I think they should get Teoscar or Bregman or some other impact righty bat.
  25. drewski6
    Absolutely, it seems many here are Soto or just get pitchers, and I just dont think its going to work out that way (and I dont think it should either). If they miss on Soto, theyll go hard after Teoscar, and if they miss on him, they'll prob engage Oneill. I strongly feel a righty will be added. They might also add a righty infielder, but Im less sure. And we prob also sign a catcher. They will of course bring in pitchers as well, either via trade or free agency. But Im not as bullish on the offense and defense as some are here. I also believe that good bats are more projectable and less variable than pitchers. Pitchers get hurt more, and go to crap more. Crap pitchers can also just figure it out and shed the "crap" label. I expect them to add 1-2 starters , 1-2 relievers, and 2-3 position players.
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