Brandon Glick

Campbell is a really interesting case I haven't been able to solve (Anthony is easier to analyze because, frankly, he's just so damn good at everything). Campbell was a disaster at Fenway, and actually really quite good on the road (.470 OPS vs .847 OPS). He also, peculiarly, struggled against left-handed relievers: Versus lefties (total stats): .207/.365/.310, .675 OPS Versus left-handed starters: .206/.367/.349, .716 OPS That's a 40-point drop in his OPS when you fold in his performance against relievers. Makes me think, as you point out, that it's a preparation thing. Which makes me wonder if it would be better to have him up with the big league club watching guys like Bregman go about their business. Will be fascinating to see what happens when rosters expand in Sept.

A sweep on Sunday Night Baseball? To embarrass the Yankees on a national stage? And take further control of the AL Wild Card race? Dustin May, don't fail us now.

Technically, Roman Anthony had already drawn nine at-bats against the New York Yankees in his brief yet stunning major league career when he stepped to the plate in the ninth inning of Thursday night's affair. Five came in the last meeting between the two teams -- shortly after Anthony was called up in mid-June -- none of which had resulted in a hit for the young phenom. Four more came on that night (August 21), and Anthony finally took advantage in the sixth inning, notching an RBI single that squared the game up at three apiece. But, when you play your first game in Yankee Stadium as the newly-minted "Face of the Red Sox Franchise", a game-tying single hardly registers as a "signature moment". Anthony needed a stage far more grand for something like that. At DiamondCentric, we've done quite a few 'anatomy of an at-bat' type articles across our suite of sites. I'd love to do one for this Anthony bomb, but the issue is that there wasn't much of an-bat to speak of. That home run came on the first pitch of the plate appearance, which itself is noteworthy. Following that Thursday night game, Anthony had taken 210 at-bats in his career (252 plate appearances). He swung at the first pitch in just 38 of them, instead opting to take the initial offering more than 80% of the time. By itself, that isn't too surprising, especially considering Anthony is working a ridiculous 14.7% walk rate that would rank among the best hitters in baseball if he had enough trips to the plate to qualify. What is startling is just how much better Anthony is when he's agressive. Here are his stats following that Thursday night home run, split by when he chose to take or swing at the first pitch: Swung at first pitch: .395/.439/.684, six extra-base hits (two home runs), .464 BABIP Took first pitch: .262/.398/.395, 17 extra-base hits (three home runs), .372 BABIP Your eyes will naturally navigate to those absurd BABIP numbers, but it's actually the figure in the 'took' split that stands out as more likely for regressions; as Anthony's other stats show, when he swings at a first pitch, he tends to maul it. It's worth noting that those numbers aren't exclusively his stats against first pitches, but rather his stats in plate appearances where he swung at the first pitch. As such, that 330-point jump in his OPS is a rather persuasive argument for the camp that wants Anthony to be more aggressive, but you haven't actually seen anything yet. I did a larger breakdown of tOPS+ and sOPS+ in an article over at North Side Baseball, but here's what you need to know for our purposes: tOPS+ tells you how good a player is relative to their own performance in a specific situation. sOPS+ tells you how good a player is relative to the rest of the league in a specific situation. 100 is the "average" for both; a number below 100 is "below average" and a number above 100 is "above average". Apply those metrics to Anthony's first-pitch split, and our picture starts to grow crystal clear: Swung at first pitch: 161 tOPS+, 210 sOPS+ Took first pitch: 86 tOPS+, 123 sOPS+ Holy cow, right? Anthony is more than twice as good as the average hitter in the league when swinging at the first pitch, and he's 61% better than his overall performance in the same situation. That he's still better than the league average when taking the first offering is a telltale sign of his overarching talent, but it's pretty evident that when he decides to swing early, he's as formidable as anyone in the batter's box. That home run against Yerry De los Santos -- which came in a high-leverage moment with two outs in the ninth inning and a one-run lead -- wasn't just impressive because of the result. Anthony, a 21-year-old rookie, bucked his own trend in order to swing at that first pitch, and he was rewarded in style. To have that kind of clarity at the plate at his age is special, and perhaps the foremost example of why the front office was willing to invest $130 million into him. So, should Anthony be more aggressive at the plate? Well, yes, but it's not quite that simple. His discerning eye is one of his best traits, and his ability to lay off even borderline pitches is why his batted ball metrics are so outstanding. If he were too patient in all situations, then sure, there'd be a problem. But, he's proven willing to take the bat off his shoulders when he needs to, and that he seems capable of making that decision as the pitch is being thrown is downright salivating. There are only a handful of human beings that can pair that kind of mental fluidity with his eye-hand coordination. In time, as Anthony grows more accustomed to facing the best pitchers in the world, he'll be able to parlay that chosen aggression into a more serious threat. For now, he's able to catch pitchers napping, and it's a grand sight to see when it works (as it so often has). If his introduction to Yankee Stadium is anything to go on, there's something really special brewing in Boston's outfield right now. View full article

Welcome (back) to second place in the AL East, everyone.

It's funny because I've gotten so used to calling him "Password" that it's almost like Jhostynxon is his nickname to me now. A bit of a Batman/Bruce Wayne "which one is the real mask" kind of vibe

Something something "Roman Empire", something something "Max Fried is cooked", something something "Friday night baseball".

The Red Sox have a new first baseman, but can Nathaniel Lowe finally fill the hole opened up by Triston Casas' knee injury? View full video

There has rarely been a player with a nickname more apt than Jhostynxon Garcia. The Red Sox's third-best prospect is finally on his way to the big leagues, though ask anyone to spell or pronounce (Yos-TIN-son) his first name, and you'll likely be met with a lot of shrugs or botched attempts that sound like random syllables woven together (the worst I've ever heard was "Ja-HOST-ee-nix-on", which, in fairness, is in the ballpark of how it looks phonetically). Thus, "The Password" was born, and it's stuck with Garcia as he's climbed the minor league ranks. Now a major league ballplayer, Garcia will be hard-pressed to carve out a permanent role in Boston. Though he's replacing the injured Wilyer Abreu in the present, the team's outfield picture is still absurdly crowded moving forward. Roman Anthony and Ceddanne Rafaela are on long-term extensions and are pencilled in as the starters in left and center field, respectively, for the foreseeable future. Abreu, when healthy, is the starter in right, and Jarren Duran is a darn good fourth outfielder who hits like a designated hitter when he's on. Add to them Masataka Yoshida and Rob Refsnyder -- two capable outfielders who are better suited for DH duties at this point in their respective careers -- and you've got six players for three spots when everyone is healthy. With Garcia added to the mix, make it seven. The outfield crowding was so severe that the front office dumped James Tibbs III -- the best prospect returned in the Rafael Devers trade -- at the trade deadline in the deal for Dustin May. Garcia, however, was (surprisingly) kept in the organization, and now Red Sox fans will have a chance to see why the franchise thinks so highly of the 22-year-old Venezuelan. He's more or less had a gradual rise since signing as an amateur free agent in 2019, first making his debut in the organization in 2021 after the Covid-19 pandemic shut down all minor league activity during the 2020 calendar year. He walked more than he struck out during his 45-game debut in the DSL as an 18-year-old, and he took off from there, ascending at least one level each year before his Double-A to MLB rise this season. Across his 99 games and 433 plate appearances with the WooSox and Sea Dogs this season, Garcia is slashing .289/.363/.512 with 20 home runs and 71 RBIs, as well as a 9.9% walk rate and 25.4% strikeout rate, all totaling up to a 133 wRC+. He was actually better in Triple-A than Double-A, hitting nearly six times as many homers in just twice as many games. His wRC+ (+23), wOBA (+0.056), and ISO (+0.124) all saw significant spikes after he got his promotion to Worcester. He's worked hard on his plate approach, going from a 54.3% swing percentage in the DSL to a 48.5% swing rate during his stint in Triple-A. While that's helped him maintain strong walk rates, his contact skills are still a big question mark. He whiffs a whopping 33.4% of the time, which has led to a really bad 75.2% in-zone contact rate (i.e., the tenth-percentile among all Triple-A hitters, per TJStats). He also swings a bunch at pitches outside the zone, which, in conjunction with his low overall swing rate, means he watches a bunch of strikes. There's a balance to be had with his patience, which seems more born out of a desire to work counts than an actually discerning eye at the plate. Nevertheless, this approach makes Garcia a bit of an old-school slugger, the likes of which the Red Sox don't really have in the outfield currently (Roman Anthony somewhat fits that profile, but he's so good at everything that he hardly qualifies for the same distinction). He pulls the ball in the air quite often (18.3% of batted ball events), which will obviously play at Fenway Park for a right-handed hitter. He's also elite in terms of barreling the ball (12.0%), which means he's hitting fly balls at ideal launch angles more often than most. What this all translates to is a guy who should feast at Fenway... if he can limit his bad swings. His gap between his 90th-percentile exit velocity (106.1 mph) and average exit velocity (86.8 mph) is huge, a result of his inability to lay off of pitches outside the zone. That's something that can hopefully be fixed with many reps against the best pitchers in the world, but there have been a lot of exceptionally talented players who haven't been able to clear that hurdle. With Devers long gone, Garcia instantly becomes the biggest 30-homer threat on the roster, besides maybe Alex Bregman and Anthony. That kind of power is important to have, especially when the only player on the team with more than 20 home runs this season (Abreu) is the player Garcia is effectively replacing. Though this will likely just be a cup of coffee until Abreu is healthy again, Garcia has a chance to prove his worth to the Red Sox, even in the league's most crowded outfield picture. View full article

After the incredibly bizarre Wednesday off-day yesterday, the Red Sox enter arguably their most crucial series of the season. The first AL Wild Card and second place in the AL East are both up for grabs.

The lone member of the Red Sox's Big Three without an extension, Marcelo Mayer's wrist surgery could cause Boston to deviate from its current plans on the infield. View full video

Hi. Please don't get (mini) swept by the Orioles before a four-game series with the Yankees. Thank you.

Nathaniel Lowe has arrived in Boston, and the Red Sox, despite completely ignoring the position at the trade deadline, have landed their first baseman for the postseason push. Let's get the bad out of the way up top. Lowe, 30, is suffering through the worst season of his career by most notable metrics, hence why the Nationals released him via waivers after being unable to find a taker at the deadline. Lowe's 86 wRC+ is the worst he's ever produced by a country mile (he's never been below 100 in a season before), and the same is true of his .665 OPS and .293 wOBA. And, after winning a Gold Glove just two years ago, he's slipped back into being a poor defender (-5 Outs Above Average and -5 Defensive Runs Saved). At this point you're probably wondering how exactly Lowe is an "upgrade" at first base. Sure, Abraham Toro has been his own brand of dumpster fire recently (.538 OPS, 43 wRC+ since the All-Star break), but replacing a train wreck with a car wreck does not a good team make. First base has been a sore spot all season—especially since Triston Casas went down for the count, but even he was struggling before his season-ending knee injury—and Lowe, despite his World Series and Silver Slugger credentials, hardly qualifies as the kind of "big swing" fans were hoping for leading up to July 31. First, I need to give credit to our @Jordan Leandre who very accurately predicted a Sox-Lowe union once the Nationals officially made the cold corner slugger available. Jordan accurately pointed out that Lowe continues to hit right-handed pitching well (.732 OPS, 104 wRC+), and it just so happens that the Red Sox have two of the best southpaw-crushers in the business in Rob Refsnyder and Romy Gonzalez. Let Lowe wreak havoc in the strong side of a platoon while covering for his weakness against left-handed pitchers (.516 OPS, 45 wRC+) with one of those two, and you're golden. Simple, right? Well, sort of. Lowe has only been league average against righties this year (101 sOPS+), and he's still striking out against them an uncomfortable amount of the time (24.6%) for someone whose sole job it will be to hit against them. Lowe's walk and strikeout rates are both down this year, brought on by a 3.6% jump in his whiff rate. He's swinging more often than he has in years past, despite the fact that his swing rate on first pitches (of a plate appearance) is down by 5.0% from last year. So, what can the Red Sox do to sort him out? The obvious answer is to preach patience—Lowe's chase rate is up to 24.1%, a sizable jump from his career-best season in 2023 (20.8%). That alone could restore him to his former high-floor form, though it won't fix the biggest issue in his profile. The first baseman's bat speed is down a whole 1.4 mph from 2023, from 74.1 mph to 72.7. In other words, Lowe has gone from swinging as fast (on average) as 2025 Wilyer Abreu to 2025 Paul Goldschmidt. Thus, you may not be surprised to learn that his performance against fastballs (.355 slugging percentage, .314 wOBA) is way down from his 2023 peak (.470 slug, .391 wOBA). He's whiffing on the pitch 5.4% more of the time over that span (and 6.5% more often than he did in 2024), and pitchers are peppering him with four-seamers as a result (38.1% usage). There's not much the team can do to literally propel his bat faster through space, but there are changes they can introduce to his approach to help offset this new weakness. Encouraging faster swing decisions could also solve a longstanding problem of Lowe's, that being his relative inability to pull the ball in the air. Yes, his all-fields approach should pay dividends in Fenway Park, but as he ages, he'll need to pull the ball more often in order to access his 25-homer power. Given the brevity of time the Red Sox will have to work with Lowe—the six remaining weeks in the regular season, and then however long the team lasts in October—more major changes would have to wait for the offseason, and that's only if Boston enjoys its fling with him enough to re-sign him. As it stands now, Lowe is a solid platoon partner at first base for Romy Gonzalez and a certain upgrade over Abraham Toro. With a few tweaks, he could be the missing piece of the puzzle in the Red Sox's lineup. View full article

The next 10 games are against division rivals. First up: the Orioles' ace.

In my most profound analysis yet, I will say that I like the Red Sox's chances today.

I yearn for the days of Theo Epstein more than you could possibly imagine. I don't know what I did to deserve Jed Hoyer, but I beg for forgiveness.

Besides the Red Sox, I am also a Cubs fan (and cover them for a living). And, oh boy, let me tell you how grateful I am for the Red Sox right now.

Sandy Alcantara: long time trade target, first time opposing pitcher (since 2023).

Despite graduating their Big Three prospects earlier in the year, the Red Sox were well represented in the mid-season Top 100 list from MLB Pipeline. View full video

To no one's surprise, Aroldis Chapman leads the Red Sox's bullpen in most notable categories this season, including fWAR (1.8). The man directly behind him on that list, Garrett Whitlock, is also the longest-tenured member of the relief crew, having been acquired via the Rule 5 Draft from the New York Yankees in 2020. In fact, the only reliever on the 40-man roster who has been in Boston longer than Whitlock is Chris Murphy, who is just one of two relievers with a 40-man spot that was actually drafted by the organization (the other being Luis Guerrero). While that organizational philosophy on how to build a bullpen warrants its own deep-dive in the future—it's emblematic of the way the Cubs, Craig Breslow's old stomping grounds, continue to turn their bullpen over on a yearly basis—Whitlock is the one who will be cast into the spotlight today. The 29-year-old right-hander is the owner of a tidy 2.77 ERA and even more impressive 2.48 FIP through 55 1/3 innings this season, hence his 1.4 fWAR. Whitlock's 46 appearances ties his career high that he set in his rookie campaign back in 2021, the only other season of his career in which he's exclusively been a reliever. That last point is important, because it's clear that Whitlock is better in a bullpen role. He's started 23 games in his career, all coming between 2022-24, and he's been relatively solid in those games: 109.0 innings, 4.29 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 102 strikeouts against 23 walks, and a .217/.313/.450 batting line allowed. Those are the numbers of a passable No. 5 starter, though averaging just 4.8 innings per start hardly qualifies Whitlock the starter as anything more. Now, turn your attention to his stats as a reliever: 188.0 innings, 2.68 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 218 strikeouts against 50 walks, and a .217/.275/.335 batting line allowed. Those are the numbers of a really good set-up man, and it's worth considering that the OPS+ of opposing hitters falls by more than 40 points when Whitlock comes out of the bullpen as opposed to starting the game on the mound. He's also allowed the same number of home runs (16) in nearly 80 more innings as a reliever. The first place your mind should go when hearing that a pitcher is having more success in the bullpen is velocity, and that instinct is very much correct. In 2021, Whitlock's sinker averaged 95.9 mph. That velocity dropped a tick in 2022, and in 2023-24, his sinker averaged less than 94 mph. He did make most of his appearances out of the bullpen in those years, but it's clear that a starter's workload (and some injuries) limited the capacity of his arm. Back to his full-time relief duties in 2025, Whitlock's sinker is once again at its fastest point, averaging nearly 96 mph. That's certainly a big reason why Whitlock has been more effective as a reliever, but it's not the only one. In fact, he's made some noticeable changes in 2025 that point to systematic changes in his approach on the mound. I won't toss five scatter plots in your face right now, but take a look at Whitlock's movement profile from 2021 to 2023 to 2025 (courtesy of Baseball Savant). That's a pretty drastic difference, created mostly by turning his sinker into a faux four-seamer (more riser and less run) and getting some much-needed drop on his changeup. The numbers don't lie: in 2023, Whitlock's sinker averaged 12.8 inches of rise and 15.4 inches of run. Those numbers in 2025 are at 14.9 inches of rise and 13.2 inches of run. That's a sizable difference in both directions, and it's turned his sinker into a genuine primary fastball again, allowing him to ditch the four-seamer that rarely, if ever, was worthwhile to throw. It also helps that he's finally settled on throwing both a sweeper and a slider after years of trading one off for the other; the sweeper, on average, gets nearly seven more inches of break than his slider, which in turn functions like a "power breaker" thanks to its tighter break and faster velocity. These aren't revolutionary changes, but creating a distinction in his movement profile has allowed Whitlock to be more purposeful with his pitches. No longer are there offerings tossed in there to simply throw the hitter off balance—every pitch is thrown with intention. So, what's the takeaway here? Well, Whitlock's case is a reminder that some guys are simply just better coming out of the bullpen; pitching short spurts is often an easier task than having to reserve bullets for the third time through an order, and allows for a pitcher to condense their arsenal to their best pitches, rather than having to reach for subpar offerings. It's also a self-evident truth that diversification in a pitch mix is extremely important, and it's a testament to both the Red Sox and Whitlock that they've been able to hone in on the spin and movement of his pitches in order to tailor the perfect combination. None of this is to say what Whitlock has done is easily repeatable—quite the opposite. It's hard work for a pitcher who is around the MLB average as a starter (which is still one of the best players in the world!) to try something different and accept a "demotion" in their role to the bullpen. Credit to him for making the most of this situation, and turning into one of the most valuable members of the Red Sox's pitching staff. View full article