Brandon Glick

It's been a pretty tumultuous September for the Boston Red Sox, as they've lost series to the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Yankees while slipping from the top Wild Card seed in the American League to the third. They still hold the second-best run differential in the Junior Circuit at +90 and a 2.5-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians for the final playoff spot in the AL, but this team is hardly making it easy. Still, they've won games when they've absolutely had to, like when they salvaged the finale of the Diamondbacks and Yankees series to avoid being swept. It might not be pretty, but the Red Sox still have the inside track on making the postseason. Part of that is thanks to steady contributions from regulars like Jarren Duran and some brilliant work by Garrett Crochet, Connelly Early, and Lucas Giolito in the rotation, but the truth is the Sox are staying afloat thanks to their suddenly-brilliant catching tandem. Since Sept 1. (13 games), among Red Sox players with at least 10 plate appearances, Carlos Narváez ranks second in OPS (.940), while his much-maligned backup, Connor Wong, ranks fourth (.938). Wong has actually been better in terms of wRC+ (160), ranking second behind only Nate Eaton (Narváez ranks fourth with a 152 wRC+). Narváez is hardly an unknown commodity around these parts, as Talk Sox has been singing the rookie backstop's praises all year long. He was mired in a nasty slump in July (54 wRC+) and August (64 wRC+), but he's seemingly rebounded and found his best form at the plate in September. Considering that he effectively became the catcher of the future after being acquired in a low-stakes deal following the team's decision to part with Kyle Teel in the Crochet blockbuster, it's pretty awe-inspiring how good Narváez has been. This most recent stretch is perhaps his most promising -- he's hitting .294/.351/.588 this month with a team-leading .294 ISO -- especially in the face of the adjustments he's had to make to recover from his months-long cold stretch. Wong, on the other hand, has not been anyone's favorite Red Sox player this year. He's been a mess at the plate (.204/.270/.255) and has been routinely floated as a DFA candidate if the team could ever find a more suitable backup catcher. However, that never came to pass, and now, Boston is reaping the benefits. In an admittedly small sample in September, the five-year MLB veteran is hitting .357/.438/.500 with a 12.5% walk rate. Yes, we're only talking about 16 plate appearances, but his two extra-base hits (both doubles) are already one-third of his total prior to September. Wherever his fence-clearing power has gone, Wong is starting to make this version of himself work in the batter's box. The fun news is that the batted ball metrics generally support the results. Both catchers' slash lines are being carried by unusually high BABIPs (.455 for Wong, .364 for Narváez), but that isn't totally a smoke-and-mirrors act. Wong's ground-ball rate is a comical 54.5% -- and it's been near that rate all year, hence his absentee home run pop -- but he's pulling the ball at a team-leading rate (54.5% as well), and he has yet to make soft contact this month. His 36.4% hard-hit rate is his highest in a month since April, and it helps that he's seeing 4.313 pitches per plate appearance, up from 3.93 in the first half. Sure, it'd be nice to see him elevate the ball once in a while, but a backup catcher playing average defense (-1 DRS in 419.0 innings this season) can get by as a hitter who works the count and gets on base. Narváez has been a tad more impressive down the stretch, despite pulling the ball just 25% of the time this month (last on the Red Sox). His 41.7% hard-hit rate ranks third on the team among all hitters with at least 10 PAs, and his 37.5% fly-ball rate is his best since June. Considering that he might be a Gold Glove finalist as a rookie (12 DRS behind the plate in 889.0 innings), it's hard to complain about the contributions coming from Narváez at the moment. With Roman Anthony out for the rest of the regular season, the Red Sox were always going to need their role players to step up in order to maintain their place in the American League hierarchy. The recent struggles of Alex Bregman, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Nathaniel Lowe aren't helping the cause, but unexpected rebounds from Wong and Narváez certainly are. Can they continue to produce like this in October? Barring a miraculous return from Anthony, the answer to that question could decide the team's postseason fate. View full article

I don't mean to alarm you, but the Blue Jays, Guardians, and Mariners are all en fuego right now. It would really behoove the Red Sox to get back in top gear ASAP.

Another start for Early vs the A's. Hopefully this one goes just as smoothly as the last.

Another day off. Good for health, bad for the soul. Can at least root for the Rays (vs Jays) and Twins (vs Yankees) to win tonight.

Hi. Please don't get swept by the Yankees on national television. Thank you.

I'm gonna argue these next two games are the most important of the Sox's season. Absolutely crucial for seeding that they get wins here.

Final Yankees series of the year. Fenway is going to be bumping.

What do Red Sox fans have to look forward to in the final weeks of the regular season? View full video

Red Sox pitching prospect Connelly Early dominated in his MLB debut, though it came at the cost of Dustin May's roster spot. View full video

By expected win-loss, the Red Sox would be tied (with the Yankees, Rangers, and Tigers) for the most wins in the AL with 84. How are you feeling about the state of the Sox right now?

3.0 games back of the Jays in the AL East... 3.0 games back of the best record in the AL. Don't let them get hot!

I still believe in Kristian Campbell's bat, and I encourage you to have faith as well. I know things got really, really ugly for a while there -- he slashed .159/.243/.222 (29 wRC+) in 140 plate appearances from May 1 until his demotion in mid-June -- but let's not forget that this is a rookie who had one of the hottest months in baseball this season (.301/.407/.495, 148 wRC+ in April) when he first cracked the major league roster. I'd also be remiss not to remind you that Campbell is just 23 years old and began the 2024 season in High-A Greenville. He had a meteoric ascension to the big leagues; a setback against the best pitchers in the world shouldn't dissuade anyone from buying his long-term potential. But, even if the Red Sox are losing faith in his most prodigious skill, he's not going anywhere. He signed a lucrative eight-year extension back in April, worth $60 million at minimum and as much as $100 million if the team picks up both option years at the end of the contract. That's an investment you can't just sweep under the rug, especially with how purposeful the Red Sox have been with spending money recently. Every dollar on the books matters, and the team's decision to eschew Campbell's cheap years of team control for a sturdy salary reflects a commitment to him and his development, struggles or not. So, that leaves us with a question that seemingly has no right answer: Where will Kristian Campbell play in Boston going forward? Let's put something out there right upfront: Kristian Campbell was awful at second base with the Red Sox this season. He made seven errors in less than 500 innings at the keystone while he was in the big leagues, "earning" -15 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), -8 Outs Above Average (OAA), and -9 Fielding Run Value (FRV). These stats aren't perfect for "pace analysis" in the same way that home runs or stolen bases are, but extrapolate those numbers over a full season (roughly two-and-a-half times as many innings as Campbell played at second), and you get a player worth -37 DRS, -20 OAA, and -22 FRV. I mean, holy moly. That's how bad Campbell was in the field for the Red Sox this season (and that's not including his below-average time in the outfield). And yes, to answer your biggest question, those would all be the worst marks in baseball this season. Defenders can absolutely improve over time -- Nathaniel Lowe was worth -10 OAA the year before he won his Gold Glove in 2023 -- but it's not the same kind of growth as hitting. Plate approaches are so fickle, and there's so many moving parts to them; any given change could be the thing that fixes or breaks a player's swing and turns them into (or reverts them from being) an All-Star. Fielding is a different beast. You can learn the ins and outs of a position, get more athletic, develop a stronger throwing arm, or just plain get better with more repetitions, but the truth with fielding is that you can either handle a certain position, or you can't. Campbell certainly has the athleticism to stick at second base (he even drew some innings at shortstop and third base last year), but the results are what they are. If the goal is to have him back in the major leagues by Opening Day 2026, then sticking him at a position where he's actively negating a ton of his offensive value isn't going to help Campbell or the team. Over the last few months, the answer to the "Campbell Position Conundrum" (the "CPC", if you will) has been first base. He's been getting a ton of reps in Triple-A Worcester at the position, and there were many who were calling for him to handle the cold corner in Boston before Lowe was brought in after a disappointing trade deadline. However, that spot has never been the best use of his athleticism, and Senior Director of Player Development Brian Abraham all but confirmed that it won't Campbell's long-term defensive home going forward. “First base was an immediate trial to see if that could work," Abraham told the Pesky Report. "That probably will end up not being as much of a focus going forward. I see him being more of a 2B/OF type opportunity." Whatever the reason may be -- the team anticipates Triston Casas being fully healthy, or they expect to re-sign Nathaniel Lowe, or they want to keep the position open for a competition in spring training -- this is the right call for Campbell's future. To be a first baseman in the majors, you have to hit. Campbell can certainly offer that kind of production, but that's a lot of pressure on a guy who lost all semblance of his confidence at the plate before being demoted back to Triple-A. The smoothest fit is obviously second base. That would allow Marcelo Mayer to take over the hot corner for Alex Bregman (assuming he leaves in free agency), or it could push Mayer into a super-utility role where his excellent glove could benefit a multitude of positions (if Bregman sticks around). We've already acknowledged how disastrous Campbell was there, though, and unless he makes marked improvements over the offseason, it's hard to imagine the coaching staff willingly subjecting him to a position he can't play competently. That leaves the outfield, which Abraham made sure to note when discussing the CPC. In fact, Campbell is starting to get some time in right field with the WooSox, perhaps as a "break glass in case of emergency" option if Wilyer Abreu can't return from his injury before the playoffs. The issue, of course, is that the Red Sox have an abundance of slick-fielding outfielders, from all-universe defender Ceddanne Rafaela in center to Abreu, a reigning Gold Glover, in right. If you like what Roman Anthony brings to the table in left (you should), then there's your starting outfield for the next half-decade, and that obviously fails to mention Jarren Duran, who has proven more than capable of handling each outfield spot in a pinch. So, where does that leave Campbell? The Red Sox could stash him in a super utility role, but do you really want to keep moving him around when the primary focus is on his bat? They could task him with learning third base over the offseason if Bregman leaves, but Mayer is a wildly superior defender and has already shown off his defensive prowess at the hot corner. Shortstop is probably off the table if Trevor Story is still around, but that's probably true regardless given Campbell's struggles at second base. Assuming the team doesn't try a Carlos Narvaez-Campell catching tandem, that only leaves one spot for the talented rookie: designated hitter. We already know that Alex Cora hates the idea of stashing one of his über-athletic youngsters in that spot, but given the layout of the team right now, it's hard to imagine where else Campbell fits if it's not first base. That scenario would prevent the team from using one of their four star outfielders at DH, as well as their successful Masataka Yoshida-Romy Gonzalez platoon, but that's genuinely the only spot left if second base doesn't work out. Is that something the Red Sox would be okay with? The CPC has no obvious answer, even as the Red Sox try to throw everything at the wall to see what sticks. It feels like asking for a miracle given that the priority is patching the holes in his plate approach, but Campbell could quell a lot nerves about his long-term future if he can show up to spring training ready to play literally any position on the diamond. View full article

It appears May will not be making his scheduled start.

Jeffrey Springs has a history of shoving against the Sox. Hopefully, the ineptitude of the A's has rubbed off on him.

This West Coast trip is brutal. But, I have good news! Every series after this one with the A's is on the East Coast. So... enjoy the last few 10pm starts of the year?

Baseball, football, or tennis today?

The Red Sox's star rookie injured his oblique against the Guardians. What's to come for Roman Anthony, and can the team make do without him? View full video

Ugh, the dreaded West Coast road trip in September. But, hey, at least we face old friend E-Rod tonight.

How are you feeling about the Red Sox right now?

Is it Christmas in September, or did Alex Cora just know I was dying for a bullpen game today?

Alex Bregman has been such a model of consistency in Boston since arriving late in the offseason that's it's almost hard to imagine what a 'bad' version of him would look like in a Red Sox uniform. Unfortunately, we don't have to imagine any more. The last few weeks of Bregman have been an unmitigated disaster at the plate, and him turning into a pumpkin could not have come at a worst time. Before we try to figure out what's going, let's look at the numbers. In the scope of the second half, Bregman has been solid: a .269/.355/.421 slash line with a .152 ISO, good for a 113 wRC+. Yes, those figures all mark drastic declines from his first-half performance, but a .776 OPS is hardly a reason to jump ship. Narrow things down to just August, and the problems start to become a little clearer. Bregman hit .260/.375/.360 with a .100 ISO last month, which resulted in a season-low 107 wRC+. Again, not the sign of someone who lost all sense of competence at the dish, but his season-high 13.3% walk rate (and season-low 9.2% strikeout rate) are doing a lot of heavy lifting in propping up those overall numbers. Tighten our sample even further to Bregman's last ten games from Aug. 23 to Sept. 1 -- starting just after his second consecutive three-hit performance against the Yankees -- and the numbers grow truly ugly. In that window, the third baseman is batting .103/.182/.128. He has just four hits in his last 39 at-bats (44 plate appearances), only one of which went for extra bases (a double against the Guardians on Labor Day). His ISO in that span is .026, and his wRC+ is a scale-breaking -15. Yikes. This is about as bad of a stretch as Bregman has ever had in his career, and there doesn't appear to be any (publicly-known) injury that's hampering him. About the only outside factor that we can toss into the equation is his looming free agency (assuming he declines his player option for the 2026 season), though that same circumstance didn't preclude him from hitting .256/.310/.500 (123 wRC+) with the Astros in the final month of the 2024 season. Get your small sample caveats out of the way now. A ten-game sample is hardly conducive to prognosticating a player's future, let alone someone with as strong of a track record as Bregman. However, that doesn't mean what's happening right now isn't problematic, and it also doesn't automatically guarantee a return to form for one of the Red Sox's most important players. In this most recent stretch, Bregman's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .114, a 215-point drop from the first half. That's... comical. For reference, Aaron Judge leads all MLB players with a .380 BABIP in 2025; his teammate, Anthony Volpe, is the lowest-ranked qualified hitter with a .242 BABIP. You would need to add another 77 points of average to their difference to explain the gap between first-half Bregman and last-ten-games Bregman. Okay, so we have a culprit, but what's the reason for such a precipitous decline? Yes, Bregman's hard-hit rate is 31.4% since Aug. 23, a steep drop-off from the 37.4% rate he posted in the first half, but it's actually an improvement on his cumulative second half numbers (29.8%). If you can believe it, his soft contact numbers are even better; his soft-hit rate of 8.6% over his last ten games is better than what he did in the first half (12.3%) and his total in the second half (16.6%). That suggests his quality of contact isn't an issue, and quick look at his spray chart offers the same conclusion. So, if he's generally hitting the ball hard, rarely striking out, and still pulling the ball a ton, what on earth is going on? Well, prepare for me to sound like your old middle school coach, but the issue is that Bregman isn't 'elevating and celebrating'. Indeed, his ground-ball rate over these past ten games is an alarming 51.4%, leagues above what he was doing in the first half (35.6%). Naturally, his fly-ball rate has been slashed, as his 28.6% rate recently represents a near-22-point drop from the pre-All-Star-break Bregman. It also doesn't help that one in every five of his fly balls in our sample failed to leave the infield, up sharply from a 12.5% infield fly-ball rate. Bregman's launch angle issues have actually been a problem all year -- his conscious change to try and hit more pulled fly balls to take advantage of the Green Monster has resulted in the lowest launch angle sweet spot rate of his career (33.0%). You can read more about LA SwSP% here, but know that it means the rate at which a player produces a batted ball event with a launch angle between 8-32 degrees. That's generally considered the "ideal range" for a player to produce optimal outcomes, and whereas Bregman was doing that more than 37.0% of the time during his peak from 2018-19, he's not even achieving it one-third of the time this year. Now, none of this means Bregman is "broken". This recent cold stretch is a confluence of bad luck and not squaring up enough balls, and if he can start turning some of those topped groundouts or popped-up fly outs into line drives, the numbers should follow suit. But this is a reminder that even the best players are prone to tough times, especially when they alter their profile to fit more of the extremes. Watch Bregman closely over the next few weeks as he tries to get himself right before the playoffs. This is a veteran player with a long history of success. Expect him to adjust given this data, and hopefully, he'll return to the All-Star version of himself before the games start meaning life or death. View full article