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Technically, Roman Anthony had already drawn nine at-bats against the New York Yankees in his brief yet stunning major league career when he stepped to the plate in the ninth inning of Thursday night's affair. Five came in the last meeting between the two teams -- shortly after Anthony was called up in mid-June -- none of which had resulted in a hit for the young phenom. Four more came on that night (August 21), and Anthony finally took advantage in the sixth inning, notching an RBI single that squared the game up at three apiece.
But, when you play your first game in Yankee Stadium as the newly-minted "Face of the Red Sox Franchise", a game-tying single hardly registers as a "signature moment". Anthony needed a stage far more grand for something like that.
At DiamondCentric, we've done quite a few 'anatomy of an at-bat' type articles across our suite of sites. I'd love to do one for this Anthony bomb, but the issue is that there wasn't much of an-bat to speak of. That home run came on the first pitch of the plate appearance, which itself is noteworthy.
Following that Thursday night game, Anthony had taken 210 at-bats in his career (252 plate appearances). He swung at the first pitch in just 38 of them, instead opting to take the initial offering more than 80% of the time. By itself, that isn't too surprising, especially considering Anthony is working a ridiculous 14.7% walk rate that would rank among the best hitters in baseball if he had enough trips to the plate to qualify.
What is startling is just how much better Anthony is when he's agressive. Here are his stats following that Thursday night home run, split by when he chose to take or swing at the first pitch:
- Swung at first pitch: .395/.439/.684, six extra-base hits (two home runs), .464 BABIP
- Took first pitch: .262/.398/.395, 17 extra-base hits (three home runs), .372 BABIP
Your eyes will naturally navigate to those absurd BABIP numbers, but it's actually the figure in the 'took' split that stands out as more likely for regressions; as Anthony's other stats show, when he swings at a first pitch, he tends to maul it.
It's worth noting that those numbers aren't exclusively his stats against first pitches, but rather his stats in plate appearances where he swung at the first pitch. As such, that 330-point jump in his OPS is a rather persuasive argument for the camp that wants Anthony to be more aggressive, but you haven't actually seen anything yet.
I did a larger breakdown of tOPS+ and sOPS+ in an article over at North Side Baseball, but here's what you need to know for our purposes:
- tOPS+ tells you how good a player is relative to their own performance in a specific situation.
- sOPS+ tells you how good a player is relative to the rest of the league in a specific situation.
- 100 is the "average" for both; a number below 100 is "below average" and a number above 100 is "above average".
Apply those metrics to Anthony's first-pitch split, and our picture starts to grow crystal clear:
- Swung at first pitch: 161 tOPS+, 210 sOPS+
- Took first pitch: 86 tOPS+, 123 sOPS+
Holy cow, right? Anthony is more than twice as good as the average hitter in the league when swinging at the first pitch, and he's 61% better than his overall performance in the same situation. That he's still better than the league average when taking the first offering is a telltale sign of his overarching talent, but it's pretty evident that when he decides to swing early, he's as formidable as anyone in the batter's box.
That home run against Yerry De los Santos -- which came in a high-leverage moment with two outs in the ninth inning and a one-run lead -- wasn't just impressive because of the result. Anthony, a 21-year-old rookie, bucked his own trend in order to swing at that first pitch, and he was rewarded in style. To have that kind of clarity at the plate at his age is special, and perhaps the foremost example of why the front office was willing to invest $130 million into him.
So, should Anthony be more aggressive at the plate? Well, yes, but it's not quite that simple. His discerning eye is one of his best traits, and his ability to lay off even borderline pitches is why his batted ball metrics are so outstanding. If he were too patient in all situations, then sure, there'd be a problem. But, he's proven willing to take the bat off his shoulders when he needs to, and that he seems capable of making that decision as the pitch is being thrown is downright salivating. There are only a handful of human beings that can pair that kind of mental fluidity with his eye-hand coordination.
In time, as Anthony grows more accustomed to facing the best pitchers in the world, he'll be able to parlay that chosen aggression into a more serious threat. For now, he's able to catch pitchers napping, and it's a grand sight to see when it works (as it so often has). If his introduction to Yankee Stadium is anything to go on, there's something really special brewing in Boston's outfield right now.







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