Jump to content
Talk Sox
  • Create Account
  • Red Sox News & Analysis

    Evil Empire, Meet the Roman Empire: Red Sox's Star Rookie Makes Grand Introduction to Yankees Rivalry

    Roman Anthony's game-sealing home run against the Yankees on Thursday night offered a reminder of what Red Sox fans have to look forward to for the next decade.

    Brandon Glick
    Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

    Red Sox Video

    Technically, Roman Anthony had already drawn nine at-bats against the New York Yankees in his brief yet stunning major league career when he stepped to the plate in the ninth inning of Thursday night's affair. Five came in the last meeting between the two teams -- shortly after Anthony was called up in mid-June -- none of which had resulted in a hit for the young phenom. Four more came on that night (August 21), and Anthony finally took advantage in the sixth inning, notching an RBI single that squared the game up at three apiece.

    But, when you play your first game in Yankee Stadium as the newly-minted "Face of the Red Sox Franchise", a game-tying single hardly registers as a "signature moment". Anthony needed a stage far more grand for something like that.

    At DiamondCentric, we've done quite a few 'anatomy of an at-bat' type articles across our suite of sites. I'd love to do one for this Anthony bomb, but the issue is that there wasn't much of an-bat to speak of. That home run came on the first pitch of the plate appearance, which itself is noteworthy.

    Following that Thursday night game, Anthony had taken 210 at-bats in his career (252 plate appearances). He swung at the first pitch in just 38 of them, instead opting to take the initial offering more than 80% of the time. By itself, that isn't too surprising, especially considering Anthony is working a ridiculous 14.7% walk rate that would rank among the best hitters in baseball if he had enough trips to the plate to qualify.

    What is startling is just how much better Anthony is when he's agressive. Here are his stats following that Thursday night home run, split by when he chose to take or swing at the first pitch:

    • Swung at first pitch: .395/.439/.684, six extra-base hits (two home runs), .464 BABIP
    • Took first pitch: .262/.398/.395, 17 extra-base hits (three home runs), .372 BABIP

    Your eyes will naturally navigate to those absurd BABIP numbers, but it's actually the figure in the 'took' split that stands out as more likely for regressions; as Anthony's other stats show, when he swings at a first pitch, he tends to maul it.

    It's worth noting that those numbers aren't exclusively his stats against first pitches, but rather his stats in plate appearances where he swung at the first pitch. As such, that 330-point jump in his OPS is a rather persuasive argument for the camp that wants Anthony to be more aggressive, but you haven't actually seen anything yet.

    I did a larger breakdown of tOPS+ and sOPS+ in an article over at North Side Baseball, but here's what you need to know for our purposes:

    • tOPS+ tells you how good a player is relative to their own performance in a specific situation.
    • sOPS+ tells you how good a player is relative to the rest of the league in a specific situation.
    • 100 is the "average" for both; a number below 100 is "below average" and a number above 100 is "above average".

    Apply those metrics to Anthony's first-pitch split, and our picture starts to grow crystal clear:

    • Swung at first pitch: 161 tOPS+, 210 sOPS+
    • Took first pitch: 86 tOPS+, 123 sOPS+

    Holy cow, right? Anthony is more than twice as good as the average hitter in the league when swinging at the first pitch, and he's 61% better than his overall performance in the same situation. That he's still better than the league average when taking the first offering is a telltale sign of his overarching talent, but it's pretty evident that when he decides to swing early, he's as formidable as anyone in the batter's box.

    That home run against Yerry De los Santos -- which came in a high-leverage moment with two outs in the ninth inning and a one-run lead -- wasn't just impressive because of the result. Anthony, a 21-year-old rookie, bucked his own trend in order to swing at that first pitch, and he was rewarded in style. To have that kind of clarity at the plate at his age is special, and perhaps the foremost example of why the front office was willing to invest $130 million into him.

    So, should Anthony be more aggressive at the plate? Well, yes, but it's not quite that simple. His discerning eye is one of his best traits, and his ability to lay off even borderline pitches is why his batted ball metrics are so outstanding. If he were too patient in all situations, then sure, there'd be a problem. But, he's proven willing to take the bat off his shoulders when he needs to, and that he seems capable of making that decision as the pitch is being thrown is downright salivating. There are only a handful of human beings that can pair that kind of mental fluidity with his eye-hand coordination.

    In time, as Anthony grows more accustomed to facing the best pitchers in the world, he'll be able to parlay that chosen aggression into a more serious threat. For now, he's able to catch pitchers napping, and it's a grand sight to see when it works (as it so often has). If his introduction to Yankee Stadium is anything to go on, there's something really special brewing in Boston's outfield right now.

    Follow Talk Sox For Boston Red Sox News & Analysis

    Recent Red Sox Articles

    Recent Red Sox Videos


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments

    Featured Comments

    Brandon, it will be fun to revisit this information at the end of the season.   There are so many factors that go into the success of a player at the plate it's often hard to isolate one that is a guaranteed method for success. 

    For first pitch success, one philosophy is to build a tunnel for where you are expecting to see the ball and decide which type of pitch you are going to hunt in that tunnel.  When you see numbers like Anthony's it sure seems like he's using this fairly common approach during each at bat.  So why did he fail so badly at the start of the season.  I believe his timing was off and he had to make adjustments to slow the game down but to continue to stick to his approach in each count.  Once the timing got corrected, he started contacting the first pitch like he did his whole career.  Whoever worked with him to define a hitting philosophy created guidelines for what to do in each count and all he has to do is effectively execute it.  Sometimes the pitcher makes an exceptional pitch, and you fail, sometimes he guesses correctly, and his athleticism launches a rocket shot and sometimes the philosophy allows him to adjust, make contacts and possibly get a hit despite being fooled.  

    Once he establishes his pattern, the book on him will grow and he'll need to adjust to how the other teams plan on getting him out.  We saw Campbell have great success like Anthony is having now and then we saw the book on him eat him up.  Whatever his process is to make adjustments, the success of it will define the amount of continued success he'll have.  Will he be a consistent hitter like Mookie, a streaky hitter like Devers, a process driven hitter like JD Martinez?  Anthony hasn't played enough to know what his future holds but we all can see he's very talented like Campbell, Rafaela and Duran.  Let's hope Campbell has gotten some help identifying what the opponents found in his hitting and has made the appropriate adjustments to correct the issue or issues.  BOS could use his bat and defense as we approach Sept and the playoffs.  

    Excellent article.

    56 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

    Brandon, it will be fun to revisit this information at the end of the season.   There are so many factors that go into the success of a player at the plate it's often hard to isolate one that is a guaranteed method for success. 

    For first pitch success, one philosophy is to build a tunnel for where you are expecting to see the ball and decide which type of pitch you are going to hunt in that tunnel.  When you see numbers like Anthony's it sure seems like he's using this fairly common approach during each at bat.  So why did he fail so badly at the start of the season.  I believe his timing was off and he had to make adjustments to slow the game down but to continue to stick to his approach in each count.  Once the timing got corrected, he started contacting the first pitch like he did his whole career.  Whoever worked with him to define a hitting philosophy created guidelines for what to do in each count and all he has to do is effectively execute it.  Sometimes the pitcher makes an exceptional pitch, and you fail, sometimes he guesses correctly, and his athleticism launches a rocket shot and sometimes the philosophy allows him to adjust, make contacts and possibly get a hit despite being fooled.  

    Once he establishes his pattern, the book on him will grow and he'll need to adjust to how the other teams plan on getting him out.  We saw Campbell have great success like Anthony is having now and then we saw the book on him eat him up.  Whatever his process is to make adjustments, the success of it will define the amount of continued success he'll have.  Will he be a consistent hitter like Mookie, a streaky hitter like Devers, a process driven hitter like JD Martinez?  Anthony hasn't played enough to know what his future holds but we all can see he's very talented like Campbell, Rafaela and Duran.  Let's hope Campbell has gotten some help identifying what the opponents found in his hitting and has made the appropriate adjustments to correct the issue or issues.  BOS could use his bat and defense as we approach Sept and the playoffs.  

    Excellent article.

    Campbell is a really interesting case I haven't been able to solve (Anthony is easier to analyze because, frankly, he's just so damn good at everything).

    Campbell was a disaster at Fenway, and actually really quite good on the road (.470 OPS vs .847 OPS). He also, peculiarly, struggled against left-handed relievers:

    • Versus lefties (total stats): .207/.365/.310, .675 OPS
    • Versus left-handed starters: .206/.367/.349, .716 OPS

    That's a 40-point drop in his OPS when you fold in his performance against relievers. Makes me think, as you point out, that it's a preparation thing. Which makes me wonder if it would be better to have him up with the big league club watching guys like Bregman go about their business. Will be fascinating to see what happens when rosters expand in Sept.

    3 minutes ago, Brandon Glick said:

    Campbell is a really interesting case I haven't been able to solve (Anthony is easier to analyze because, frankly, he's just so damn good at everything).

    Campbell was a disaster at Fenway, and actually really quite good on the road (.470 OPS vs .847 OPS). He also, peculiarly, struggled against left-handed relievers:

    • Versus lefties (total stats): .207/.365/.310, .675 OPS
    • Versus left-handed starters: .206/.367/.349, .716 OPS

    That's a 40-point drop in his OPS when you fold in his performance against relievers. Makes me think, as you point out, that it's a preparation thing. Which makes me wonder if it would be better to have him up with the big league club watching guys like Bregman go about their business. Will be fascinating to see what happens when rosters expand in Sept.

    With Lowe doing well, I don't see Campbell being a 1Bman option need, and he may never play another game at 2B for the Sox again. We just called up DHam over Campbell, so that is pretty telling.

    I am far from giving up on Campbell's bat, but his glove is a major concern. His most likely fits on Defense are LF (where he needs to learn the difference between playing CF and LF) and DH. While DH seems a waste of his athleticism, if the guy can't be a plus on D anywhere else, then what is left? We also have such an overload in the OF, playing LF is not really an option and may not even be an option if we trade Duran.

    LF: Anthony & Garcia

    CF: Rafaela & Garcia

    RF: Abreu, Garcia & Anthony

    Where does Campbell fit in, unless Jh Garcia bombs out?

    With Yoshida at DH, being a DH platoon is a waste of a roster spot. DH v LHPs and 5th OF'er and emergency 2Bman is still not a good option.

    He may end up being trades along with Duran or Abreu- maybe in a separate deal.

    1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

    With Lowe doing well, I don't see Campbell being a 1Bman option need, and he may never play another game at 2B for the Sox again. We just called up DHam over Campbell, so that is pretty telling.

    I am far from giving up on Campbell's bat, but his glove is a major concern. His most likely fits on Defense are LF (where he needs to learn the difference between playing CF and LF) and DH. While DH seems a waste of his athleticism, if the guy can't be a plus on D anywhere else, then what is left? We also have such an overload in the OF, playing LF is not really an option and may not even be an option if we trade Duran.

    LF: Anthony & Garcia

    CF: Rafaela & Garcia

    RF: Abreu, Garcia & Anthony

    Where does Campbell fit in, unless Jh Garcia bombs out?

    With Yoshida at DH, being a DH platoon is a waste of a roster spot. DH v LHPs and 5th OF'er and emergency 2Bman is still not a good option.

    He may end up being trades along with Duran or Abreu- maybe in a separate deal.

    If the team is going to deal Campbell, it won't be this offseason. His value is at its lowest and he's about to start that eight-year extension.

    My guess is he'll get first crack at first base in ST, with the backup plan being to DH him if that doesn't work. I know with certainty the team would love to trade Yoshida and get his salary of the books, but they may to package him with someone else (Duran, Garcia, Sandlin, etc.) to get someone to eat his remaining two years.

    I actually think the best plan for Campbell is to treat him like a poor man's Ben Zobrist. Let him play a super-super utility role while shielding him from particularly bad pitching matchups. A guy who can play 1B, 2B, and all three outfield spots, even if he plays them somewhat poorly, is still valuable, especially if he can hit.

    40 minutes ago, Brandon Glick said:

    Campbell is a really interesting case I haven't been able to solve (Anthony is easier to analyze because, frankly, he's just so damn good at everything).

    Campbell was a disaster at Fenway, and actually really quite good on the road (.470 OPS vs .847 OPS). He also, peculiarly, struggled against left-handed relievers:

    • Versus lefties (total stats): .207/.365/.310, .675 OPS
    • Versus left-handed starters: .206/.367/.349, .716 OPS

    That's a 40-point drop in his OPS when you fold in his performance against relievers. Makes me think, as you point out, that it's a preparation thing. Which makes me wonder if it would be better to have him up with the big league club watching guys like Bregman go about their business. Will be fascinating to see what happens when rosters expand in Sept.

    Campbell never really struggled at any level.  Anthony had a couple spots along way where he did, if only for a short time; Salem in 2022 and 2023 were his low points covering about 65 games (he hit around .200 overall, so he had to deal with some failure).

    I think Campbell was brought along too quickly.  Prior to this year, he had played 137 minor league games (roughly 1 minor league season).  Even now he's under 200.  By contrast, Anthony played over 300.  Betts played 299.  Mike Trout played 291.  

    Mentally dealing with failure is part of baseball.  I'm a huge HS wrestling fan, and I can't even count the number of multi-time state champs I've seen who you think will do well at the major collegiate level and just disappear because they can't adjust to the fact that everyone there was just as dominant in HS as they were.  Campbell is struggling on the field for the first time in his life; virtually all players go through this.  A bad first year means nothing (look at Mike Schmidt's rookie stats).  A good first year means nothing (Joe Charboneau).

    16 minutes ago, Brandon Glick said:

    If the team is going to deal Campbell, it won't be this offseason. His value is at its lowest and he's about to start that eight-year extension.

    My guess is he'll get first crack at first base in ST, with the backup plan being to DH him if that doesn't work. I know with certainty the team would love to trade Yoshida and get his salary of the books, but they may to package him with someone else (Duran, Garcia, Sandlin, etc.) to get someone to eat his remaining two years.

    I actually think the best plan for Campbell is to treat him like a poor man's Ben Zobrist. Let him play a super-super utility role while shielding him from particularly bad pitching matchups. A guy who can play 1B, 2B, and all three outfield spots, even if he plays them somewhat poorly, is still valuable, especially if he can hit.

    I really don't think a player's value drops as much as some think, due to a 200 PA slump.

    I think many teams would love to have Campbell, even after seeing his 2025 issues on O and D. I don't see KC as an option at 2B, unless as an extreme emergency. He is really bad on D.

    We don't need another OF'er. If we trade Duran, we may need help, especially if Jh Garcia struggles. If we keep Yoshida around, he could be a LF option, too. Maybe Romy, too. Maybe Refsnyder returns for 1 more year.

    I don't like the idea of trading any of our OF'er. I like them all, but our surplus is too valuable to have 1 or 2 on the bench or at DH every game. I'm not trading Anthony. I guess trading Rafaela could be an option, but his glove in CF is too good to lose. I'd be okay with trading Abreu, as Anthony and Garcia can play RF decently.

    2 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

    Campbell never really struggled at any level.  Anthony had a couple spots along way where he did, if only for a short time; Salem in 2022 and 2023 were his low points covering about 65 games (he hit around .200 overall, so he had to deal with some failure).

    I think Campbell was brought along too quickly.  Prior to this year, he had played 137 minor league games (roughly 1 minor league season).  Even now he's under 200.  By contrast, Anthony played over 300.  Betts played 299.  Mike Trout played 291.  

    Mentally dealing with failure is part of baseball.  I'm a huge HS wrestling fan, and I can't even count the number of multi-time state champs I've seen who you think will do well at the major collegiate level and just disappear because they can't adjust to the fact that everyone there was just as dominant in HS as they were.  Campbell is struggling on the field for the first time in his life; virtually all players go through this.  A bad first year means nothing (look at Mike Schmidt's rookie stats).  A good first year means nothing (Joe Charboneau).

    Well said.

    I do think defense is easier to judge over smaller sample sizes, and I did not like what I saw from KC at 2B.

    9 hours ago, Brandon Glick said:

    Campbell is a really interesting case I haven't been able to solve (Anthony is easier to analyze because, frankly, he's just so damn good at everything).

    Campbell was a disaster at Fenway, and actually really quite good on the road (.470 OPS vs .847 OPS). He also, peculiarly, struggled against left-handed relievers:

    • Versus lefties (total stats): .207/.365/.310, .675 OPS
    • Versus left-handed starters: .206/.367/.349, .716 OPS

    That's a 40-point drop in his OPS when you fold in his performance against relievers. Makes me think, as you point out, that it's a preparation thing. Which makes me wonder if it would be better to have him up with the big league club watching guys like Bregman go about their business. Will be fascinating to see what happens when rosters expand in Sept.

    I agree being in the MLB would be good for him.

    Having played at many different levels I have some insight into what it's like when things are going well with a coach who supports you and when things don't go as well playing for a coach who doesn't support you.  I believe Cora is a source of a lot of stress for several of the prospects and has been since he arrived. 

    My earliest example dates back to when Mookie was his inherited superstar in 2018 and how he chose to rest him far more than he wanted to, just like JD Martinez.  Cora took a very mediocre player who Dombrowski signed mid-season named Steve Pearce and injected him into JD's number 3 hole.  It was obvious immediately that it impacted JD's rituals and confidence.  There was no need for it but the first week he did it against the NYY Pearce came up in many situations that JD had been excelling in throughout the summer and got the glory for beating the Yankees during a single series.  JD was hitting .330 with power and a ton of doubles and Pearce was no better than a journeyman with an unsensational career.  Cora impacted a veteran's psyche with his move and Mookie pulled away and won the MVP. 

    The following season BOS opened in Asia and then went on a long West Coast trip after they won the WS the previous year.  Cora told the pitchers to show up 2 weeks later than usual for Spring Training because they pitched into November.  It was a ridiculous idea but typical of an inexperienced manager.  Then to add further stress in the ranks, for no logical reason, Cora started Benny as the leadoff hitter and moved Mookie to the 2-hole.  As usual, it made no sense but Cora likes to experiment so he can take credit, and it backfired like most of his moves.  After several games they switched back to try to stop the tremendous skid the team was going through.  The SPs were all struggling, especially Sale and Price due to the short Spring Training.  Eovaldi got hurt and the starters were NOT ready to go more than 5 innings, so the bullpen got worn out in April.  You could see the pitcher's stress due to the lack of preparation, the star players stress from the lack of performance due to the Cora change and the fan frustration for all the managerial mistakes.

    Fast forward to Duran arriving in the MLB and being rewarded with hitting lead-off initially.  He played really well and suddenly he got jerked from the lead-off spot for no apparent reason and Duran's psyche was impacted as he admitted in the Netflix story about the Red Sox.  It took him over a year to return to the MLB after being completely deflated by Cora's actions.  Enter Rafaela the next year.  He goes down nearly an identical path to Duran's.  He makes the MLB and bats lead-off and does well and out of the clear blue gets moved to 7th in the order and has NEVER been returned to where he was most comfortable hitting.  Add to it the fact that Cora treated him more like a utility player like he did Duran rather than a top prospect.  Once again there is failure prompted by the actions of the manager for a second year in a row.  Rafaela is still waiting to be treated with respect from Cora but at least the fans are showing to him for the most part thanks to all his dramatic catches. 

    Now it's Campbell's turn to receive the Cora three-peat.  Campbell hit better than both Duran and Rafaela to begin his career after winning Minor League Player of the Year.  He carried a .400 average for a couple of weeks and finished the first month over .300 and batting in the top of the order.  Then, Cora pulls a Cora (synonymous with mistake in our house).  He once again moves Campbell this time down to the bottom of the order and the wheels fall off with respect to his hitting and he's being pushed aside from his recently learned 2B position so he can learn 1B. (Utility player like the other two)  

    So how much does the support of your manager matter?  Anthony while batting below .100 hit in the third spot in the order, a massive sign of support from Cora.  Even Mayer got to stay in a better part of the order while he was severely struggling.  But Duran, Rafaela and now Chapman didn't have that support and went down almost identical trails.  I fully expect Campbell to bounce back like Duran and have success and maybe make the all-star team in a year.  Rafaela is all-ready an all-star who should be batting in the top of the order and be receiving the Anthony type team support that I'm sure he'll never receive until Cora is gone.

    The moral of the story is finding a manager who is unbiased in his treatment of prospects and players and having him provide support to all his players not just a select few needs to be the goal of the Red Sox, especially Breslow.  Campbell can make it back just like Duran and Rafaela did, but wouldn't it be nice if he finally got the respect from his MLB manager for all he has accomplished in the Red Sox organization in just two short seasons?

    8 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

    Now it's Campbell's turn to receive the Cora three-peat.  Campbell hit better than both Duran and Rafaela to begin his career after winning Minor League Player of the Year.  He carried a .400 average for a couple of weeks and finished the first month over .300 and batting in the top of the order.  Then, Cora pulls a Cora (synonymous with mistake in our house).  He once again moves Campbell this time down to the bottom of the order and the wheels fall off with respect to his hitting and he's being pushed aside from his recently learned 2B position so he can learn 1B. (Utility player like the other two)  

    The last game he held a .400 batting average was game 8. That was 9 days into the season. 

    Here's his batting order position to start the season:

    6-6-7-5-6-7-7-7-7-6-6-7-6-7-6-7-7-9-7-6-5-6-6-7-6-7-7-6-6

    When he was put into cleanup IN MAY, he hit 120 (335 OPS) from 5/4-5/28. That's why he was dropped in the order. He hit better when he was lower in the lineup, so Cora tried him lower in the order. After he was dropped in the order he hit 216 (647 OPS) from 5/30-6/18 which was an improvement. Cora made the right call apparently.  

    8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

    The last game he held a .400 batting average was game 8. That was 9 days into the season. 

    Here's his batting order position to start the season:

    6-6-7-5-6-7-7-7-7-6-6-7-6-7-6-7-7-9-7-6-5-6-6-7-6-7-7-6-6

    When he was put into cleanup IN MAY, he hit 120 (335 OPS) from 5/4-5/28. That's why he was dropped in the order. He hit better when he was lower in the lineup, so Cora tried him lower in the order. After he was dropped in the order he hit 216 (647 OPS) from 5/30-6/18 which was an improvement. Cora made the right call apparently.  

    Fact Check Guru.

    TYPM is really going to complain about how Cora managed a team to 119 wins and the World Series title?  There’s a lot that one can criticize Cora for, but that season is not one of them.

    The Martinez rant is both comical and sad. JD batted 3rd in 73 games in 2018. He slashed .317/.379/.594/.973 with 21 homers and 68 RBIs in those games. When he was forced to hit 4th in 77 games, he was so devastated and his routines so adversely affected that he was only able to manage .344/.425/.663/1.088 with 22 homers and 62 RBIs.

    Mookie missed 26 games that year.  He was out for 15 games in late May/early June with some injury and BR game logs show they took it easy with him for a few days when he came back.  So his rest days were in the area of 10 non injury related, or about 2 a month, with some of those in late September after the Sox had clinched everything they could.

    1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

    The last game he held a .400 batting average was game 8. That was 9 days into the season. 

    Here's his batting order position to start the season:

    6-6-7-5-6-7-7-7-7-6-6-7-6-7-6-7-7-9-7-6-5-6-6-7-6-7-7-6-6

    When he was put into cleanup IN MAY, he hit 120 (335 OPS) from 5/4-5/28. That's why he was dropped in the order. He hit better when he was lower in the lineup, so Cora tried him lower in the order. After he was dropped in the order he hit 216 (647 OPS) from 5/30-6/18 which was an improvement. Cora made the right call apparently.  

    Like metrics, your estimate of Cora's decision is pure speculation.

    38 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

    TYPM is really going to complain about how Cora managed a team to 119 wins and the World Series title?  There’s a lot that one can criticize Cora for, but that season is not one of them.

    The Martinez rant is both comical and sad. JD batted 3rd in 73 games in 2018. He slashed .317/.379/.594/.973 with 21 homers and 68 RBIs in those games. When he was forced to hit 4th in 77 games, he was so devastated and his routines so adversely affected that he was only able to manage .344/.425/.663/1.088 with 22 homers and 62 RBIs.

    Mookie missed 26 games that year.  He was out for 15 games in late May/early June with some injury and BR game logs show they took it easy with him for a few days when he came back.  So his rest days were in the area of 10 non injury related, or about 2 a month, with some of those in late September after the Sox had clinched everything they could.

    Facts are pesky things. 😄 

    11 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

    Like metrics, your estimate of Cora's decision is pure speculation.

    You said Campbell started the year hitting at the top of the order.  The facts say otherwise.

    Can you please check the facts before you post?

    8 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

    Like metrics, your estimate of Cora's decision is pure speculation.

    Did he move him lower in the order because he was hitting better at cleanup than before? Why else would he move him lower? 

    On 8/24/2025 at 6:50 AM, Brandon Glick said:

    Technically, Roman Anthony had already drawn nine at-bats against the New York Yankees in his brief yet stunning major league career when he stepped to the plate in the ninth inning of Thursday night's affair. Five came in the last meeting between the two teams -- shortly after Anthony was called up in mid-June -- none of which had resulted in a hit for the young phenom. Four more came on that night (August 21), and Anthony finally took advantage in the sixth inning, notching an RBI single that squared the game up at three apiece.

    But, when you play your first game in Yankee Stadium as the newly-minted "Face of the Red Sox Franchise", a game-tying single hardly registers as a "signature moment". Anthony needed a stage far more grand for something like that.

    At DiamondCentric, we've done quite a few 'anatomy of an at-bat' type articles across our suite of sites. I'd love to do one for this Anthony bomb, but the issue is that there wasn't much of an-bat to speak of. That home run came on the first pitch of the plate appearance, which itself is noteworthy.

    Following that Thursday night game, Anthony had taken 210 at-bats in his career (252 plate appearances). He swung at the first pitch in just 38 of them, instead opting to take the initial offering more than 80% of the time. By itself, that isn't too surprising, especially considering Anthony is working a ridiculous 14.7% walk rate that would rank among the best hitters in baseball if he had enough trips to the plate to qualify.

    What is startling is just how much better Anthony is when he's agressive. Here are his stats following that Thursday night home run, split by when he chose to take or swing at the first pitch:

    • Swung at first pitch: .395/.439/.684, six extra-base hits (two home runs), .464 BABIP
    • Took first pitch: .262/.398/.395, 17 extra-base hits (three home runs), .372 BABIP

    Your eyes will naturally navigate to those absurd BABIP numbers, but it's actually the figure in the 'took' split that stands out as more likely for regressions; as Anthony's other stats show, when he swings at a first pitch, he tends to maul it.

    It's worth noting that those numbers aren't exclusively his stats against first pitches, but rather his stats in plate appearances where he swung at the first pitch. As such, that 330-point jump in his OPS is a rather persuasive argument for the camp that wants Anthony to be more aggressive, but you haven't actually seen anything yet.

    I did a larger breakdown of tOPS+ and sOPS+ in an article over at North Side Baseball, but here's what you need to know for our purposes:

    • tOPS+ tells you how good a player is relative to their own performance in a specific situation.
    • sOPS+ tells you how good a player is relative to the rest of the league in a specific situation.
    • 100 is the "average" for both; a number below 100 is "below average" and a number above 100 is "above average".

    Apply those metrics to Anthony's first-pitch split, and our picture starts to grow crystal clear:

    • Swung at first pitch: 161 tOPS+, 210 sOPS+
    • Took first pitch: 86 tOPS+, 123 sOPS+

    Holy cow, right? Anthony is more than twice as good as the average hitter in the league when swinging at the first pitch, and he's 61% better than his overall performance in the same situation. That he's still better than the league average when taking the first offering is a telltale sign of his overarching talent, but it's pretty evident that when he decides to swing early, he's as formidable as anyone in the batter's box.

    That home run against Yerry De los Santos -- which came in a high-leverage moment with two outs in the ninth inning and a one-run lead -- wasn't just impressive because of the result. Anthony, a 21-year-old rookie, bucked his own trend in order to swing at that first pitch, and he was rewarded in style. To have that kind of clarity at the plate at his age is special, and perhaps the foremost example of why the front office was willing to invest $130 million into him.

    So, should Anthony be more aggressive at the plate? Well, yes, but it's not quite that simple. His discerning eye is one of his best traits, and his ability to lay off even borderline pitches is why his batted ball metrics are so outstanding. If he were too patient in all situations, then sure, there'd be a problem. But, he's proven willing to take the bat off his shoulders when he needs to, and that he seems capable of making that decision as the pitch is being thrown is downright salivating. There are only a handful of human beings that can pair that kind of mental fluidity with his eye-hand coordination.

    In time, as Anthony grows more accustomed to facing the best pitchers in the world, he'll be able to parlay that chosen aggression into a more serious threat. For now, he's able to catch pitchers napping, and it's a grand sight to see when it works (as it so often has). If his introduction to Yankee Stadium is anything to go on, there's something really special brewing in Boston's outfield right now.

     

    View full article

     

    I dislike your headline--Roman Empire--because it smacks of the super-hype regularly indulged in by ESPN and most other outlets. And to set the record straight, I think the 6 most valuable players on this team right now are Bregman, Anthony, Story, Crochet, Chapman, and Bello.  

    Does anyone in his right mind believe the Sox take 3 of 4 from the Yankees and their terrfic batting order without superb pitching?   And, by the way, Wong and Lowe's back to back doubles won the 2d game.  

    I really like moonslav's comment that Anthony has essentially replaced Devers because it fits perfectly.  Plus Anthony can play the outfield with a plus DWAR.  

     

    It may be premature... okay, okay... it is premature to call it a "Roman Empire," but it sure would be nice for Anthony to do well enough for that term to stick to the Sox, as in "The Sox won 5 rings during the Roman Empire..."

    41 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

    I dislike your headline--Roman Empire--because it smacks of the super-hype regularly indulged in by ESPN and most other outlets. And to set the record straight, I think the 6 most valuable players on this team right now are Bregman, Anthony, Story, Crochet, Chapman, and Bello.  

    Does anyone in his right mind believe the Sox take 3 of 4 from the Yankees and their terrfic batting order without superb pitching?   And, by the way, Wong and Lowe's back to back doubles won the 2d game.  

    I really like moonslav's comment that Anthony has essentially replaced Devers because it fits perfectly.  Plus Anthony can play the outfield with a plus DWAR.  

    Maybe we change it for last night: Showman Umpire Beats Roman Empire -- for some brutal non-JUDGEmental calls (what's a rookie to do, except hack at crap and try to foul one off so he can hope for an actual strike to swing at).

    As for the Yankees, did you know when they don't homer they are a below average offense? At least based on team hit totals in the ballpark; the average MLB team has 1,081 hits, including 150 HRs. If you subtract the home runs, the average team has 931 other hits. The Yanks only have 885...

    Good thing they play half their games where a pop-up to right field counts as four bases. I agree with most of the word you used to describe their batting order, but only in the Bronx, where opposing pitchers are terrified that a pinstriper will drop his back shoulder and get under one.

     



    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...