Brandon Glick

How have the eight prospects the Red Sox sent to the AFL performed through the first 10 days of action? The annual offseason Arizona Fall League is underway, and an octet of Red Sox youngsters are representing the organization on the Mesa Solar Sox. As a reminder for those familiar with the happenings of the AFL — or as a primer for those getting into it for the first time — the league features six teams, each of which is composed of prospects from five different major league teams. As such, the Mesa Solar Sox are the home of not just prospects from the Red Sox, but also the Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland/Sacramento/Las Vegas Athletics, and Los Angeles Angels. You can find more on each AFL team here. Boston sent eight players to the Solar Sox this offseason: right-handed pitcher Cooper Adams, who posted a 5.08 ERA in 79.2 innings with the High-A Greenville Drive; 20-year-old catcher Brooks Brannon, who had a .697 OPS in 230 at-bats this year; utility player Max Ferguson, who played in just 28 games this MiLB season; lefty pitcher Zach Fogell, who has a career 2.82 ERA in the minor leagues; right-hander Danny Kirwin, an undrafted free agent; outfielder Caden Rose, a seventh-round pick in 2023; and pitchers Conor Steinbaugh and Tyler Uberstine, who have combined to throw three total innings in the AFL through Wednesday, October 16. Astute observers will recognize that those players aren't top-tier prospects (only Brannon appears on the team’s Top 30 list, and he slots in at 27th), which is mostly par for the course in the AFL. This league represents a chance for teams to send players who need more reps to a competition with other prospects of varying skillsets. If a player missed time with injury during the regular season, is working on a new plate approach, is tinkering with a pitch or delivery, or simply just needs more in-game action, the Arizona Fall League presents the perfect opportunity for that. Thus far, the standout performer of that group has been Ferguson, who is slashing .316/.350/.368 through 19 at-bats thus far. He’s already had his signature moment too, hitting a walk-off RBI single on Opening Night of the AFL. It’s a welcome sign for the 25-year-old, who struggled badly this season in his limited time with both Triple-A Worcester and Double-A Portland. He’s never hit better than .228 in any season of his career thus far, and his power has waned since hitting a career-high seven home runs during the 2022 season. Any additional production in Arizona could be necessary if he wants to return to the upper levels of the minor leagues in 2025. Kirwin also had a stand-out performance in his appearance, striking out five batters in three innings and allowing only one run. The undrafted pitcher is known for his fastball but secured four of his K's with his slider. Developing a second plus pitch could fast-track his development and put him on the big-league radar by 2026. Brannon and Rose, the other two position players in Arizona, have mostly struggled thus far. Brannon is slashing just .188/.235/.250 in 16 ABs and Rose has only earned 12 at-bats to the tune of a .650 OPS. It’s too early to deem their time in the desert as a bust, but they’ll need to step up their performance, lest they wish to lose playing time to other prospects on the Solar Sox roster. Fogell, Steinbaugh, and Uberstine all have 0.00 ERAs in limited work thus far, though only the eldest of that group (Steinbaugh) has worked a clean inning. Adams has struggled in his maiden AFL appearance, allowing two earned runs in just three innings of work, surrendering a .364 batting average allowed to opposing hitters. As of Thursday, the Solar Sox are in first place with a 6-2 record. The Arizona Fall League continues this week and all the way through the championship game on November 16. View full article

Masataka Yoshida's shoulder injury proved to be as serious as previously feared, and the Boston designated hitter's availability for the start of the 2025 season is in question. Since signing a five-year, $90-million contract in December 2022, Masataka Yoshida has mostly lived up to his profile, but failed to deliver on the great ceiling that his seven-year run in the NPB with the Orix Buffaloes portended: a .327/.421/.539 slash line with 133 home runs. Over his first two seasons with the Red Sox, the former outfielder has played in 248 of a possible 324 games, accrued 2.8 WAR, posted an OPS of .775 and OPS+ of 111, and produced 82 extra-base hits. That’s hardly a porous performance, but for a guy making $18 million per year — tied for the third-highest figure on the team last year, behind only Rafael Devers and Trevor Story — it pales in comparison to what the team needs. Of course, Yoshida was dealing with multiple injury issues this past year, including a left thumb strain that sidelined him for nearly six weeks during the first half. Over the past month, fans have also become privy to a previously undisclosed shoulder injury that required Yoshida to get an MRI in late-September. On Wednesday, we found out the severity of that injury, as the team announced that Yoshida had shoulder surgery nearly two weeks ago. Naturally, shoulder injuries are a big deal for hitters, and the timeline for previous labrum surgeries offers a wide range of possible outcomes for Yoshida’s recovery. Baseball Prospectus’s Recovery Dashboard, lists six position players who underwent shoulder labrum surgery since 2016, as well as how long it took for them to return to game action in the major leagues. Year Player Days 2016 Greg Bird 183 2019 Miguel Andujar 140 2023 Brendan Rodgers 128 2023 Garrett Mitchell 162 2023 Logan O'Hoppe 119 2023 Vinnie Pasquantino 114 Average 141 Median 134 The average player rehabbed for roughly 4.5 months, so assuming an average recovery, that would put Yoshida’s return at February 21, 2025. That’s exactly one week after pitchers and catchers report on February 14, and two days after the first full-squad workouts begin on February 19. Now, there’s a wide range of outcomes in that table, and the best-case scenario appears to be a sub-four-month rehab period, while the longest recovery window was more than six months. That means Yoshida could be ready to roll before Spring Training starts, or he could be out until late April. Most importantly, this is a small data set of players with similar surgeries. The severity of Yoshida’s injury is unknown to the public, and his exact timeline could differ for any number of reasons. Thus, fans should expect the Red Sox to act in accordance with the information they have. If they know Yoshida will be out for longer, a free agent move for another big bat (Alex Bregman? Teoscar Hernández?) would be even more advisable than it already is, and could also put Boston squarely in the trade market for a big bopper to slot in alongside Devers and Tristan Casas in the heart of the order. Alternatively, if there's reason for optimism about Yoshida’s health prior to Spring Training, the BoSox could use that as an excuse to not open up the purse strings this Winter. This news also further wrecks Yoshida’s trade value, which was already a huge question mark last offseason, when the then-primary left fielder was deemed to have an “untradeable contract”. Yoshida simply won't command much in a trade as a designated hitter without a ton of over-the-fence power. However, improved plate discipline (his strikeout and walk rates improved from 2023 to 2024), and an increased fly ball rate (19.4% in 2023, 24.4% in 2024) could have at least given the Red Sox some added leverage in discussions. There's an argument to be made that Yoshida managed an above-average season at the plate despite playing hurt all year, and that he could improve once he's fully healthy. Still, no team will be champing at the bit to acquire $54 million in remaining salary for a player who went under the knife just two weeks ago. For now, Yoshida will remain in Boston while rehabbing his injury, and the Red Sox will wade into one of the most important offseasons in recent memory with one of their highest-paid players as a gigantic unknown. View full article