Alex Mayes

Craig Breslow gave both pitchers a public vote of confidence last week, but coming off internal brace procedures, what will they be able to contribute in 2025? Last week, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow met with the media over Zoom to discuss the remaining items on the team's offseason to-do list. During the call, he mentioned that both Lucas Giolito and Garrett Whitlock should be available to pitch for most or all of the season, with Whitlock pitching out of the bullpen in a "leverage bulk role." This is undoubtedly good news, but both pitchers are coming off lost seasons and will need to work back up to full strength before they can be considered integral parts of the pitching staff. What can we expect their roles to be this season? Lucas Giolito The Red Sox signed Giolito before the 2024 season hoping that he could help anchor what was then a relatively young starting rotation. He never made it out of spring training, as an elbow injury required an internal brace procedure that kept him on the IL for the entire season. Still, Giolito spent time around the team and lent a veteran ear to those around him. Coming into 2025, Giolito himself says he is on track to have a full spring training and to go into the season ready to take on a starter’s full workload. Giolito struggled mightily in 2022 and 2023, combining for a 4.89 ERA and 4.70 FIP. However, from 2019 to 2021, those numbers were 3.47 and 3.54. It's unreasonable to ask Giolito to come back as the very best version of himself, but if he can bounce back to something approximating his old form, that would be a big win for the Red Sox. Even as he struggled over his past two seasons, he ran encouraging whiff and strikeout rates. We don’t know how his elbow will respond to a starter’s workload, and the team will try to manage his innings. Giolito should be one of many beneficiaries of the rumored six-man rotation, even though he has said he prefers preparing under the standard five-rotation schedule. Look for Giolito to slot in as a back-end starter for the Red Sox this season. If he fails to reach 140 innings in 2024, Giolito's contract gives the Red Sox a team option for 2026. He'll have a lot to pitch for this season.. Garrett Whitlock What exactly is a "bulk leverage reliever?" On paper, it makes some sense for Whitlock. He has starting experience and should be used to throwing multiple innings, even out of the bullpen. In my opinion, though, that’s a waste of Whitlock's ability. He has proven to be a dominant reliever in the recent past. Whitlock has a career 4.29 ERA as a starter, compared to 2.65 as a reliever. Giving him a full offseason to work with Andrew Bailey and letting him prepare to be a reliever is the best way forward for the Red Sox here. Whitlock only has nine saves in his career, but he very easily could be the first person to take the mound in the ninth inning once the coaching staff decides that Liam Hendriks is not the closer they had once hoped he would be. Whitlock isn’t a flame-throwing, strikeout pitcher (though his career strikeout rate jumps from 22% as a starter to 28% as a reliever). He tends to pitch to contact, and with a renewed focus on infield defense and a healthy Trevor Story, that should be a more successful strategy in 2025. That should allow Whitlock to feel comfortable stepping to the mound with the game on the line in the ninth inning, and barring another injury, that’s the exact position the Red Sox should hope for him to be in at some point during the 2025 season. It's not particularly comforting that the Red Sox are relying on so many pitchers with Tommy John surgeries or internal brace procedures in their recent past. All the same, Giolito and Whitlock have had enough success in recent memory that they're good bets to contribute as the team attempts to return to contention. View full article

Really appreciate the kind words. We're working hard to carve out our own space in the Sox podcast world.

Also, thanks for listening to the pod! Hope you're enjoying it.

You're correct. My fingers get going faster than my eyes sometimes. Thanks for catching that.

No hatred for Rob at all. I actually like him as a player but I went with Gonzalez and Grissom on the bench because it wouldn't shock me for Grissom to get looks in the outfield as they try and find a role for him and I like the flexibility Gonzalez brings to the infield mix along with Hamilton. If the Sox keep Wilyer and Anthony ends up getting called up early in the season or possibly breaking camp with the big league club, Refsnyder is the odd man out.

The moves came quickly for the Red Sox in December and there's a very strong argument to be made that the team is in a much better position now than they were heading into the 2024 season. Let's take a quick look at the January projections before any other changes happen. There’s a lot to be excited about in 2025 for the Red Sox, but there are still some question marks and a couple of holes that need to be filled. Let’s get started by looking at the players on the team as of today. Lineup Jarren Duran, CF Rafael Devers, 3B Trevor Story, SS Triston Casas, 1B Masataka Yoshida, DH Wilyer Abreu, RF Connor Wong, C Kristian Campbell, 2B Ceddanne Rafaela, CF That’s right, I have Kristian Campbell breaking camp with the big league club. I fully believe that entering camp there will be a competition for the second base position between Campbell and Vaughn Grissom, and Campbell will light spring training on fire so thoroughly that the Red Sox have to start him on Opening Day. He will hit low in the lineup, at first, to ease him into the big leagues, but as his bat comes around he will move higher into the lineup later in the season. Trevor Story hitting third in the lineup doesn’t serve as protection for Rafael Devers at first, but as long as he stays healthy then his righty swing will end up benefiting Devers in the long run. Bench Carlos Narváez, C Vaughn Grissom, Util David Hamilton, Util Romy Gonzalez, Util That’s a lot of utility players, but in modern baseball, that’s what your bench should be stocked with. Carlos Narváez will back up Connor Wong and spell him during slumps, but he’s here for his defense and not his bat. When there’s speed on the bases late in games, Alex Cora is bound to swap catchers to give his team a better chance to get outs on the basepaths. Vaughn Grissom has played second and shortstop but should be looked at as someone who can slot into third base at times and my assumption is we will see him get some time in left field during spring training to make him more of a utility type of player. David Hamilton and Romy Gonzalez can play all over the infield and add another burst of speed coming off the bench when necessary. Starting Rotation Garrett Crochet, LHP Tanner Houck, RHP Brayan Bello, RHP Walker Buehler, RHP Kutter Crawford, RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP While there’s talk of a six-man rotation, including from Craig Breslow himself, I don’t expect that to actually happen with any regularity. There may be some long stretches without off days where the Sox go to a sixth starter to give everyone an extra day of rest, especially considering that three of the six starters are likely to have some kind of leash on them as they return to form. Still, I actually think Kutter Crawford is the odd man out here. When push comes to shove, Lucas Giolito was brought here to start and if the Red Sox go with a five-man rotation, Crawford seems the obvious candidate to head to the bullpen. There could be an argument to be made for Brayan Bello to be that guy, but Boston didn’t give him an extension and hand him the ball to start the season in 2024 for him to be relegated to the bullpen already. Bullpen Liam Hendriks, RHP Aroldis Chapman, LHP Justin Slaten, RHP Garrett Whitlock, RHP Justin Slaten, RHP Justin Wilson, LHP Luis Guerrero, RHP The bullpen is still probably the shakiest group on the roster. The team needs one more big-time, high-leverage type arm to help replace Chris Martin and Kenley Janson. Luckily, there is quite a bit to like about what we’re already seeing though. Liam Hendriks is likely your Opening Day closer because the organization thinks highly of him and that’s his natural position, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if that spot went to someone else by the end of May. Justin Slaten seems primed to take over the closer role at some point, and that seems to be the safer long-term move. Chapman should work as the seventh or eighth-inning setup man, Whitlock will be used as long relief, Guerrero showed enough at the end of last season to be trusted to get outs, and Wilson will work as a left-handed specialist when needed. There’s a lot of like in the bullpen, but additions will help to shore up the 'pen and help to settle the fanbase. We’ll have more roster projections as the offseason continues to unfold, so keep an eye out for them. For now though, what are your thoughts as the team currently stands? Should Grissom get the nod over Campbell? Does Roman Anthony deserve to break camp with the big league club too? Let us know. View full article

With the St. Louis Cardinals looking to unload Nolan Arenado, the Red Sox should answer their call. According to Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of Masslive.com, the Boston Red Sox are a ‘preferred destination’ for third baseman Nolan Arenado. The Red Sox and Arenado have been linked since the start of the offseason, when the Cardinals decided to make him available for trade as they began an organizational overhaul. But does Nolan Arenado actually make sense for the Red Sox? In 2024 Arenado slashed .272/.322/.394, which is a respectable slash line for anyone, but with a 102 wRC+, it makes him almost exactly a league-average hitter. In his age-33 season, he put up the lowest slugging percentage, lowest hard-hit rate, and lowest average exit velocity of his entire career. That said, the decline might not be as big an issue as it seems at first blush. When we overlay his 2024 spray chart on Fenway Park, a new story emerges. All of a sudden, those long outs turn into home runs and doubles off the Green Monster. All of a sudden, instead of talking about an aging hitter with limited power, we’re talking about someone with a swing tailor-made for Fenway Park. We're talking about a player who can revitalize his career playing next to former teammate Trevor Story, because you wouldn’t trade for a 10-time Gold Glover only to shift him into a position he’s never professionally played, right? Right? However, the Red Sox wouldn’t necessarily be bringing Arenado in for his bat. They'd bring him in to bolster the infield defense, and that would mean moving Rafael Devers off third base. In order for an Arenado trade to make any kind of sense, one player in particular would have to be headed back to St. Louis: Masataka Yoshida. Moving Yoshida would allow Devers to slide over to DH and focus on what he does well: mashing. The price would be steep. To get it done, the Red Sox would have to be fine with alienating the face of the franchise with nine years left on his contract, and they'd have to be fine with overpaying Arenado for three decline years. Beacuse the Cardinals are looking to shed salary and pick up prospects, the Red Sox would likely have to pay part of Yoshida's contract down, which means they'd essentially be paying Arenado even more than the $74 million currently left on his contract. However, I would argue that the price is worth paying for massive upgrades at DH and on defense at third base. It might even be worth attaching someone like Wilyer Abreu or Ceddanne Rafaela to Yoshida, especially with Roman Anthony likely awaiting an early season call-up, if he doesn’t make a case to be on the big league roster in spring training. Trading for three years of Arenado makes far more sense than signing free agent Alex Bregman to a seven-year deal, but it has to be the right deal to bring him to Boston. The wrong deal could make the team worse, and it could create yet another gaping hole elsewhere on the diamond. View full article

Alex Bregman would seem to solve some issues for the Red Sox, but do they actually need him? At this point, the name most often connected to the Red Sox on the free agent market is two-time World Series champion Alex Bregman. He’s a Gold Glove third baseman, a position where the Red Sox could use improvement, and he’s willing to move to second base should a team need him there. That sounds great on paper, but do the Red Sox actually need to sign Alex Bregman? First, let’s look at the rumored preferred contract for Bregman. The prevailing rumor is that he’s seeking a contract of seven years worth at least $200 million. That’s quite a large ask for someone going into their age-31 season. There’s no doubt that Bregman would be worth the first part of that contract if he were able to play his primary position, third base, for that entire span, but as the roster is currently constructed, third base still belongs to Rafael Devers for the foreseeable future. However, the back half of the contract would saddle the Red Sox with an aging star who very likely will fail to live up to expectations, potentially keeping the Red Sox from bringing in other big-name free agents down the line. Second, we want to look at Bergman’s numbers over the last few seasons. First, in 2024, Bregman ran his highest strikeout rate since 2020, coming in at 13.6%. That’s not an insane strikeout percentage, but the numbers are trending in the wrong direction. Even more concerning is his 6.9% walk rate, which is a disastrously big drop-off from the rates he's run every year since 2018. He's still got elite bat-to-ball skills, but he's chasing more, which is a worrisome trend. Bregman has never crushed the ball, but he's succeeded by pulling the ball in the air and running excellent walk and strikeout rates. If he can't do that anymore, then he'll burn up a lot of his margin for error. Moreover, pitchers seem to be less afraid of him, as he just ran one of the highest zone rates of his entire career. If the Red Sox are investing seven years in a player, that player needs to be trending upwards for the majority of the contract, not downwards. Last, there’s a decent case to be made for letting Kristian Campbell and Vaughn Grissom compete for the starting second base spot in spring training. Campbell moved through the organization very quickly, but of all the high-level prospects in the system, Campbell seems the most ready to make the jump to the majors. If the Red Sox are serious upgrading their infield defense, there are ways to do it, but Bregman would represent a serious investment with serious risk. Although he brings an impressive amount of hardware and World Series experience with him, the Red Sox would be better served to look elsewhere for a defensive upgrade. View full article

A former All-Star and two-time World Series champion is headed to Boston. The Red Sox continue to add to the pitching depth of the organization and likely have rounded out the starting rotation for 2025. According to Russell Dorsey of Yahoo! Sports, the team has signed Walker Buehler to a one-year, $21.05-million contract with incentives that could push its value higher. Buehler was one of the postseason heroes for the Los Angeles Dodgers, closing the door on the New York Yankees in Game 5. He looks to build on that performance with a one-year prove-it deal in Boston. The deal is currently pending a physical. From 2018 to 2021, Buehler was a dominant arm for the Dodgers. Over that period, he went 39-13, running with a 2.82 ERA and 3.16 FIP while striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings. He earned two All-Star selections and was named to All-MLB First Team in 2021. However, injuries derailed his career. He underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2022 (his second, after a 2016 UCL tear). He missed all of the 2023 season and returned in 2024, missing an additional 56 games due to hip inflammation. His combined numbers from before the injury in 2022 and 2024 are not as pretty. He went 7-9 and posted a 4.75 ERA and 4.74 FIP. His strikeout rate, whiff rate, and chase rate all fell off. Toward the end of the season, though, Buehler seemed to figure things out. He was electric during the postseason, running a 3.60 ERA and allowing just one home run over four appearances. The Red Sox are hoping that they're getting that most recent version of Buehler. Adding Buehler to the rotation gives the Red Sox a pitcher with playoff experience, an important consideration considering the team's goals this season. In fact, in 19 postseason appearances and nearly 100 innings, Buehler is 4-1 with a 3.04 ERA. Buehler also represents another arm with injury concerns to go with Garrett Crochet. He represents yet another upside play, and another instance of the Red Sox betting on their training and pitching development staffs to get the best out of a player who has struggled recently. We will have much more on this deal later today and tomorrow. View full article

Connor Wong turned in the best offensive season of his career in 2024. Has he come into his own as a hitter or was he the beneficiary of good luck? With Kyle Teel headed to Chicago, Connor Wong is the catcher of both the present and the future for the Boston Red Sox. In 2024, he had a full-on breakout season. In 2023, Wong's first full season in the big leagues, he slashed .235/.288/.385 for a wRC+ of 78. In 2024, Wong blew those numbers out of the water, slashing .280/.333/.425 with a 110 wRC+. Not only was that an enormous improvement, but it made him the seventh-best hitting catcher in baseball (minimum 400 plate appearances). While he had a couple of dry spells throughout the season, Wong could be counted on when he stepped to the plate. He peppered the Green Monster with doubles, and all but one of his 13 home runs were to the pull side. His 11.9% pulled fly ball rate put him in the 77th percentile, which made him a great fit for Fenway Park. What caused this offensive surge? Let’s take a look, keeping an eye out for indications that it will or won't be sustainable as we head into 2025. The first thing we notice when we compare the two seasons is that Wong lowered his strikeout rate by nearly 10 points from 2023 to 2024, going from 33.3% to 23.5%. His 29.5% chase rate is also uncomfortably high, but it's a drop of five percentage points from last season, and that's an enormous improvement. Wong also increased his contact rate on pitches in the zone. Those kinds of gains in plate discipline are extremely encouraging; they speak to seeing the ball better and making better swing decisions, and they tend to carry over from one season to the next. Wong is being more selective, and that allows him to get deeper into counts and to swing at pitches that give him a better chance to do damage. That’s the type of hitter the Red Sox hope Wong can be throughout his tenure in Boston. However, the strikeout rate doesn’t tell the entire story. Swinging at better pitches and making more contact in the zone is usually a recipe for hitting the ball harder, but Wong's contact quality numbers fell off in a big way. His average exit velocity fell all the way to the 11th percentile and his 34.% hard-hit rate put him in the 20th. He just didn't seem to have the top-end power that he flashed in previous seasons, and that is a very concerning development. Wong also appeared to get very lucky in 2024. His .348 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), was the seventh-highest in baseball. In fact, over the past five seasons, only one catcher has run a higher BABIP. Wong's .330 wOBA was also a whopping 41 points higher than his .289 xwOBA. Among batters who made at least 400 plate appearances, that was the second-highest gap in baseball. Look how far he is into the lucky side of this graph. If he's any closer to the dotted line that shows his expected performance, Wong's season looks very, very different. That kind of overperformance just isn't sustainable. Counting on luck to continue season after season is something that can’t happen on a major league baseball team. That’s not to say that Wong won’t be a contributing member of the team and counted on to come through in big situations, but his luck is bound to run out at some point. It's important to note that by most metrics, Wong made great strides at the plate in 2024. That's huge, and if his exit velocity numbers bounce back up, there's genuine reason to expect him to keep improving. All the same, it wouldn't be reasonable to expect him to keep outperforming his underlying numbers by so much. The hope should be that last season's success inspires Wong to continue being selective with his swings and keep abusing the Green Monster. However, we should expect him to regress season in 2025. That’s something the Red Sox, who are serious about contending, can’t afford. Let’s all hope that Wong believes in his offensive breakout from 2024 and does everything necessary to make it look like the first in a long line of successful seasons behind the dish in Boston. View full article

Tanner Houck was the breakout star of the rotation in 2024 but how likely is that success to carry over into 2025 and beyond? Tanner Houck was the shining star of the 2024 Red Sox pitching staff, putting up a 3.12 ERA after running a 5.01 ERA in 2023. When he stepped to the mound every five days, you knew he was more likely than not to turn in a solid pitching performance. Even as he began to break down toward the end of the season, he could be counted on to eat innings and help preserve an already overworked bullpen. It's fair to say that few of us saw this season coming. Before the season began, the question was whether Houck should be in the bullpen because he couldn’t be trusted to go deep into games, and letting him see the opposing lineup for a third time would spell disaster. He proved everyone wrong and turned in the best season of his career. Now we have a question to answer: how much should we trust Houck’s breakout performance? Let’s dive into some numbers. First, Houck didn't just improve his ERA. His strikeout rate fell a bit, but his walk rate fell by much more. The advanced ERA estimators felt that Houck had been a bit unlucky in 2023, so he was probably due for a bit of regression anyway. Even so, all of those advanced metrics liked him better in 2024. He knocked more than a run off his FIP and nearly half a run off his xFIP. That's a good sign. That's not to say that Houck didn't get a least a little bit lucky. His home run per fly ball rate dropped by nearly half, going from one of the highest in the league in 2023 to one of the lowest in the league in 2024. That's not usually a very consistent indicator, so we should expect Houck to give up a few more home runs next season regardless of what happens. Next, we should step back and look at the big picture, because Houck was a completely different pitcher this season. In 2023, he threw a four-seam fastball 10% of the time and a cutter 11% of the time. In 2024, he completely scrapped both of those pitches and threw his splitter more than twice as often, leading with it against left-handed batters. He also made some mechanical changes; he raised his arm angle and got much less extension. Houck has always struggled against lefties, but he was better in 2024, and steeper arm angles are known to be more effective against opposite-handed batters. The effect on his pitches was dramatic. He traded his true slider for a sweeper with more than five extra inches of horizontal break, yet somehow the pitch barely lost any horizontal break or velocity. That's not normally how these things work. The splitter added nearly four inches of drop, and the pitch modeling metric Stuff+ went from absolutely hating it in 2023 to thinking it was Houck's best pitch in 2024. The splitter got hit a bit harder this season, but its average launch angle dropped from 5 degrees to -5 degrees. The splitter wasn’t his strikeout pitch — that honor still belonged to his sinker — but it was an effective out pitch. All batters could do with it was beat it into the ground. Houck's sinker actually lost a little bit of sink, but look at the difference between his pitch movement charts. Houck was all about East-West movement in 2024. Generally speaking, vertical break is better for racking up whiffs, while horizontal break is better for inducing soft contact, and that's exactly how things played out for Houck. His whiff rate fell a huge amount, from 28.8% to 22.6%, but his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate fell too. He also earned a ton more called strikes, so his CSW% (or called strike and whiff rate) was actually higher this season. So Houck earned fewer whiffs, but he still ended up with more strikes and softer contact. His 55.5% groundball rate was among the highest in the league. More strikes, weaker contact, and more groundballs is an excellent recipe for success, even if it means sacrificing some swing-and-miss. Knowing all this, let's address our original question: Can we trust that Houck's breakout will continue into 2025? Obviously, we shouldn't expect him to keep dodging home runs forever, and pitchers who specialize in avoiding hard contact are prone to more ups and downs than pitchers who rack up big strikeout totals, but there's a lot here to be excited about. These are big changes to his mechanics, his pitch mix, and his movement, and there's no reason that those things should suddenly disappear in 2024. I think it’s entirely possible that 2024 was the first in a long run of successful seasons for Houck. He proved throughout very nearly an entire season that he has the ability to mix his pitches, vary his speeds and locations, and go deep into games when needed. So far, he has been the shining star of the Bailey Pitching Lab, and there's no glaring reason to expect him to come down to earth next season. Currently, Houck should be sitting second in the rotation behind newly acquired front-line starter Garrett Crochet, but don’t be shocked to see a discussion about who starts Game 1 of a playoff series. If the improved rotation is any indication, that's where they'll be, and they'll be able to trust Tanner Houck’s breakout 2024 to carry over into a dominant 2025. View full article

Nuh huh

Trading away one of the Big Four would undoubtedly anger some Red Sox fans. However, Craig Breslow and company may need to start getting uncomfortable in order to improve the team. With the Red Sox missing out on yet another front-line starting pitcher in Max Fried, it's time to take a deep look at the team's approach to big-name free agents. Sure, the team is preparing an offer for Corbin Burnes, but in the event that they miss out on him too, the only other way to secure the kind of pitcher you'd want starting Game 1 of a playoff series will be through the trade market. I’ve already written about why players shouldn’t be untouchable with the current needs of the team, so I thought it could be an interesting exercise to break down the Big Four of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, and Kyle Teel to see who is most or least likely to end up as the odd man out in a trade. Most Likely To Be Traded: Marcelo Mayer Marcelo Mayer was taken with the fourth overall pick in the 2021 draft and has been touted as the future shortstop of the major-league club. Although he was called up to triple-A Worcester toward the end of the season, he never played an inning there. At double-A Portland, he slashed .307/.370/.480 with eight home runs and 38 RBIs. He showed off his defensive skill throughout the season, and he likely has Red Sox fans salivating at the thought of his call-up in 2025. However, Mayer is about as blocked as blocked can be at the major-league level. Like it or not, Trevor Story isn’t going anywhere until his contract is over, and he will be expected to be the starting shortstop for the big league club barring some extensive shifting of the entire infield group. We know he can play second base, but the club likely wants to keep him at his preferred position until they absolutely have to move him elsewhere. Why keep a talent like Marcelo Mayer in the minor leagues when you could build a solid trade package around him to land your top of the rotation starter? Other teams will jump at the chance to take a fourth-overall draft pick with an incredibly MLB-ready, projectable game, and Mayer offers them a personality that will play well in any media market. Mayer also carries a worrisome injury risk. That limits his trade value and makes his future less projectable than the team's other top prospects. Some teams will want more security, but some will be happy to take a shot at some extra upside. If the Red Sox are serious about trading for a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, a deal centered around one of the brightest stars in all of baseball should easily get it done. Least Like To Be Traded: Roman Anthony Roman Anthony is the top prospect in all of baseball, but the precedent is there for him to be traded. If we think back to the Chris Sale trade, the Red Sox sent the number one prospect in all of baseball, Yoan Moncada, to the Chicago White Sox. At the time, Moncada could have been considered untouchable but the Red Sox identified the pitcher they wanted to change the landscape of the team and they paid the price necessary to get it done. This doesn’t mean that the front office is willing to make such a deal again, though. Anthony projects as a future All-Star right fielder with a power bat, making him capable of becoming one of the best homegrown talents in the organization’s history. A trade involving Anthony would shock the baseball world, but if the Mariners were willing to swap a George Kirby or Logan Gilbert for Anthony, the Red Sox would at least have to consider the deal. To trade Anthony, the Red Sox are going to have to be blown away by the return and a one-for-one swap here is highly unlikely. Could Be Had for the Right Price: Kristian Campbell and Kyle Teel I suppose the same can be said of Roman Anthony, but I find it far more likely that Kristian Campbell and Kyle Teel are traded before him. Campbell shot through the minors last season and was even discussed as a late-season call-up until a lat injury ended his season Teel seems poised to take over the starting catching role from Connor Wong at some point during the 2025 season and could even start the season as the backup catcher in Boston. Both players project to be part of the big-league club within the first few months of the season and can impact the game on both offense and defense. Campbell is likely the starting second baseman for years to come and Teel should turn into a catcher with a well-rounded game. It’s unlikely both of them end up traded, but should a team be willing to pay a premium for either Campbell or Teel, then the Red Sox need to be prepared to take the money and run. Trading from the top of the farm system hurts, but in game's current landscape, if you’re not spending money then you’re going to be trading future talent. The odds say it's unlikely that the Big Four are going to pan out at the major-league level. Good executives are better at figuring out which prospects project to be valuable contributors to their rosters and which ones can be dealt and replaced down the line. Craig Breslow will now need to prove to the fanbase that he can make those sorts of trades successfully, especially as the free-agent starting pitching market dries up before our very eyes. View full article

The word 'untouchable' gets thrown around quite a bit in discussions about high-level prospects and MLB stars. Should the Red Sox actually have a list of players they won't trade? According to Chris Cotillo of MassLive, the Red Sox have made Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, and Kristian Campbell ‘untouchable.' On the surface, this makes perfect sense. Duran was the breakout star of 2024, Anthony is the top prospect in all of baseball, and after storming through the farm system, Campbell looks poised to take over second base at some point during 2025. The other two members of the Big Four, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel, have been touted as untouchable by fans across social media because of the potential they show. But we’d be kidding ourselves if we believed that all four prospects are going to be contributors at the big league, let alone reach the All-Star potential. There’s a chance they very well could be All-Star caliber players and the Red Sox will be flush with homegrown talent to build around for years to come, but statistically speaking, the far more likely scenario is that one or two of them will pan out as every day big leaguers and only one of them will reach their full potential in Boston. If the biggest return to make the team competitive for the next few seasons comes from dealing members of the Big Four, then why not deal from your biggest strength and turn some of these blue-chip prospects into pitchers you'd like to see starting a playoff game? It's no secret that the Red Sox need top-of-the-rotation help and could specifically use a left-handed starter. Sure, there are names like Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, and Sean Manaea on the free agent market (not to mention the right-handed Walker Buehler, to whom the Sox have recently been linked), but deals for those first two names are expected to get larger and larger with each passing day. That doesn’t mean the Red Sox shouldn’t be at the forefront of those conversations, but it does mean that they likely will need to turn to the trade market if they want to add more than one high-leverage arm to the starting rotation. Seattle is reportedly listening to offers for members of their starting rotation, Luis Castillo and Bryan Woo being the two most talked about names. But should Seattle tell the Red Sox that Logan Gilbert or Bryce Miller could be had in a deal that revolved around Kristian Campbell, then the Red Sox would be crazy to not entertain a deal of that magnitude. Losing Campbell would sting, but there’s no doubt that the return is worth the sting, especially if Campbell doesn’t pan out at the big league level, which is a very real possibility. Trading any of the Big Fourwill bring the critics out en masse, and that’s understandable, to a point. However, to upgrade the roster in meaningful ways means making some difficult decisions. Juan Soto picking the Mets means that the American League is wide open for the next few years and the Red Sox are on the cusp of being able to put their best roster on the field since 2018. However, the price for doing so will be high. If the return is a top-of-the-rotation, playoff-proven starter who can bring the next Commissioner’s Trophy to Boston, then the Red Sox need to consider every avenue available to them, even if that means trading some of the best prospects in baseball. View full article

With the Winter Meetings quickly approaching, let's wrap up the future values big board to see if any of the names mentioned are moved during what could be the busiest week this offseason. We’ve arrived at the final installment of the Future Values Big Board. I wanted to make sure to get this posted before the Winter Meetings begin, just in case any big trades are made there. Thanks for following along. If you need a refresher on any of the other parts of the list, you can find them here: 20-16, 15-11, 10-6. #5 Wilyer Abreu Season age in 2025: 26 Years of team control: 5 It could be argued that Wilyer Abreu is too low on this list, even coming in fifth. His name has been attached to the Garrett Crochet trade since the start of the offseason, and it would come as no surprise if he were the first person traded should the Red Sox land Juan Soto. Abreu is a Gold Glove right fielder who slashed .253/.322/.459 in 2024. He was arguably the team's biggest surprise and gave us what is likely the most emotional series of at-bats we’ve seen in years. He’s a player that fans love and could be considered part of the franchise's young core. However, he operates in a platoon role for the most part due to his weakness in hitting left-handed pitching, but if given a chance to work on it in a full-time role, there’s little doubt that he could figure it out. The value Abreu brings to the table is that he is young and already has a season-long award to his name after playing in the most difficult right field in the majors. Other teams would love to get someone like Abreu on their roster to build around, and it wouldn’t shock me at all to see him moved sometime next week for a pitcher. #4 Kyle Teel Season age in 2025: 23 Years of team control: 6 The Red Sox seem to have found their next long-term catcher in Kyle Teel. He’s young, athletic, and eager to learn. He has flown through the farm system and looks poised to likely be the first “the big four” member to make his major league debut, as the Red Sox currently do not have any better options for backup catcher. With Connor Wong being listed in the proposed trade for Garrett Crochet, we could even see Teel break camp as the starting catcher, even though he likely needs a bit more time to develop at Triple A. Teel may be viewed as untouchable by the organization because of the position that he plays; as a fast-rising catcher, he is far more valuable to the Red Sox than any other organization. His ceiling is one of an All-Star caliber catcher, and the Red Sox should be salivating at having him behind the plate on a daily basis, possibly sometime during 2025. #3 Kristian Campbell Season age in 2025: 23 Years of team control: 6 Kristian Campbell has been the fastest riser in the system in 2024. He has impressed at every level and is a clear-cut call-up candidate for 2025 should the infield need a jolt of energy. That energy will come from a few different places: he is an incredibly athletic defender, a speedster on the base paths, and can hit for easy power. Campbell has the makings of a future superstar due to his defensive and offensive skills, and the Red Sox have taken notice of that. It wouldn’t be surprising if his name came up in discussions during the Winter Meetings. Still, any offer for Campbell should be rebuffed unless the return is an incredible trade, as Campbell has the makings of a starting second baseman in Boston for years to come. Maybe he can be the person who breaks the Dustin Pedroia Curse after all of these years. #2 Roman Anthony Season age in 2025: 21 Years of team control: 5 Roman Anthony is likely the only untouchable person on this list. He is not only the top prospect in the Red Sox system but also the top prospect in all of baseball. Anthony is a freak athlete, and it’s hard to remember that he’s only 20. He has lit the baseball world on fire, and for good reason. He hit 18 home runs between Double and Triple A in 2024, swiped 21 bags, and collected 226 total bases. On top of being an offensive threat, he roams right field and seems poised to take over the position in Fenway in short order. I’m positive that every big trade the Red Sox have started with another organization, the conversation was started with Anthony. The opposing team should always be told no; Roman Anthony is the next big thing for the Boston Red Sox and is the one player that should not even be considered in trade talks. #1 Jarren Duran Season age in 2025: 28 Years of team control: 4 Some may argue that I should switch the first and second people on this list, but I handed Jarren Duran the first spot on this list because it’s far more likely Duran will be moved than Anthony. I know I’m crazy for suggesting trading Duran, we’ve been here before. I get why the Red Sox shouldn’t move Duran. However, it’s still my opinion that you strike while the iron is hot, and Duran likely just had the best season he will ever have in the majors. Teams are likely willing to pay a high premium for his talent, and the Red Sox would be foolish to at least not entertain the idea. He’s not going to be the first outfielder moved this offseason. Still, teams have to love what they saw in 2024, and if the Red Sox believe that someone like Ceddanne Rafaela is the center fielder of the future, Roman Anthony is well-equipped to play right field, and Juan Soto is playing in front of the Green Monster in 2025 and beyond; Duran makes a ton of sense as a trade chip. The return for him, especially packaged with someone like Marcelo Mayer, would net an incredible return from anyone. Don’t be shocked to see Duran’s name start coming up in talks should the Red Sox actually land Juan Soto this offseason. View full article