Alex Mayes

Welcome to part three of my Trevor Story Apology Tour. If you missed my open letter to the shortstop, or where I said that him opting in would be a good thing, feel free to read them here and here, respectively. Today though, I wanted to highlight just how incredible of a season Story is having now that he’s fully healthy in Boston. He scuffled early in the season, but since being given a few days off to rediscover himself, Trevor Story has been one of, if not the best hitter on the team. There are flaws in his offensive approach—some that still drive fans insane when they appear—but he’s been fairly consistent at the plate and a guaranteed runner in scoring position when he steals bases. Story currently leads the team in both home runs and stolen bases, with 24 and 28, respectively. Having one person lead the team in those two major offensive categories was interesting enough that I decided to dig back through the last 50 years of club history and see just how often that had been done. Before Story, it had been done five times by a Red Sox player since 1975. Let’s take a look at how Story’s season stacks up against the other five legendary names on this list. To set our bar, here is how Trevor Story is performing this season (as of 9/13/25): .261/.308/.440 with 24 HR, 28 SB, 91 RBIs, 103 wRC+, 3.1 WAR, 27.4% strikeout, 5.2% walk, and a .331 BABIP. The most recent example of one person on the Red Sox leading in both home runs and stolen bases was back in 2017, when Mookie Betts ended the season with 24 home runs and 26 stolen bases. Betts delivered 102 RBIs that season to go along with a 107 wRC+, 4.6 WAR, a .268 BABIP, and an 11.1 K% and 10.8 BB%. His slash line for the '17 season was .264/.344/.459. On the surface, Story is set up for a similar season in '25. As long as he stays healthy, Story should hit more homers this season, and has already stolen more bases. Where Story can’t compete with Betts, though, is in strikeout and walk rate. Anyone who has watched Story knows he’s going to go down swinging more often than not, and he struggles to work walks at a decent clip. A point-and-a-half jump in WAR is likely unattainable as a result (also because of Betts' sterling defense in the outfield). Following Betts, we have another outfielder, Jacoby Ellsbury, in 2011. Ellsbury slashed .321/.376/.552 that season to go along with 32 home runs, 39 stolen bases, 105 RBIs, a 150 wRC+, 9.5 WAR, 13.4 K%, 7.1 BB%, and a .336 BABIP. Ellsbury finished second in AL MVP voting to Justin Verlander that year. 2011 was the year that Ellsbury established himself as a premier center fielder. There’s absolutely zero chance Story gets anywhere close here. Ellsbury was a far more disciplined hitter than Story, and the numbers reflect that. Ellsbury tore the cover off the ball that year, and even though Story has been dependable, his .261 average is a far cry from .321. All that being said this version of Story is what the Red Sox were hoping to get when they originally signed him; comparing his campaign to one of the greatest regular seasons in franchise history is a bit unfair. After Ellsbury, we have to jump back to 2000 when Carl Everett finished the season with 34 home runs and 11 stolen bases to lead the team. He slashed .300/.373/.587 with 108 RBIs while posting a 135 wRC+, 4.7 WAR, 20.1 K%, 9.3 BB%, and a .325 BABIP. In terms of strikeout percentage, this is the closest we’re going to get to Story’s current run. You can cherry pick stats to compare Everett and Story, but on the whole, Story’s current season isn’t as much of an offensive juggernaut as Everett was in 2000. Sure, Story is lapping him on stolen bases, but that era of Red Sox baseball wasn’t known to be loaded with speed like the current version of the team is. Story may catch him in RBIs though; 108 isn’t unattainable if Story keeps mashing homers for the remainder of the season. Ellis Burks in 1990 checks in next on the list. Burks slashed .296/.349/.486 with 21 home runs, nine stolen bases, and 89 RBIs with a 127 wRC+, 3.3 WAR, 12.8 K%, 7.5 BB%, and .314 BABIP. While a drastically different game was played in 1990, this is the lowest stolen base number we have on this list, although not by much. It’s tough to make comparisons here because Burks’ slash line will be unattainable for Story this season, but you could argue this version of Story is far more valuable now. Story’s WAR could creep up above 3.3, and his BABIP is higher than that of Burks, though you’d love to see Burks’ strikeout rate swap with Story’s. Finally, we must jump back 50 years to Jim Rice in 1975. That year, Rice slashed .309/.350/.491 with 22 home runs, 10 stolen bases, 102 RBIs, a 126 wRC+, 2.9 WAR, 19.9% K%, 5.9% BB%, and a .355 BABIP. We’re talking incredibly different players here, and a game now that puts far more focus on strength and speed than in 1975, but Story is running a similar walk rate to Rice. Rice is considered one of the best hitters in the history of the team and Trevor Story will (likely) never hold such a distinction, but being in such close company to someone of Rice’s caliber is sure to be a feather in the shortstop's cap. There were reports early in the season that Rice was told to stop talking to hitters in spring training, but Story is doing his best impression on the field this year. While Story has more pop in his bat, Rice was the far more consistent hitter. Working with someone like Rice could push Story into the next tier of hitter next season. Trevor Story is joining some Red Sox legends with the current path he’s on. Should he continue to hit like he has been, and knock the strikeouts down some, he should finish the season first on the team in both home runs and stolen bases. That’s something no one expected of him going into the season. The Red Sox are hoping to make a deep postseason run this year, and if this version of Trevor Story is sticking around, he is going to be a driving force on offense come October. View full article

ESPN’s Jeff Passan published an article on Thursday, September 4 where he said that he expects third baseman Alex Bregman to opt out of the rest of his contract with the Boston Red Sox and test free agency. Passan further notes that Bregman is expected to receive the five-year/$175 million contract that eluded him before the 2025 season began. With the season Bregman has been having, it’s not shocking to hear that he’s going to test the free agency waters again. He’s currently on one of the cushiest contracts in the sport: three years for $120 million with opt-outs after the 2025 and 2026 seasons. Even with the deferred money built into the agreement, Bregman is sitting pretty while playing for a cornerstone franchise. While he potentially stands to get more on the open market, the Red Sox shouldn’t feel the need to overextend themselves and pay that kind of money over the next five years. As @Brandon Glick highlighted here on Talk Sox, Bregman is in the midst of his longest cold stretch of the season. It’s absolutely fixable, but it allows us to see into the future just a bit. If the Red Sox sign Bregman to a five-year deal, he’s going to be playing out the last year of that contract during his age-37 season. Since August 17, Bregman is hitting below the Mendoza line, slashing .182/.264/.221 with a -0.3 WAR. That’s not to say those are the types of numbers he’s going to put up in five years, but these non-competitive at bats are going to become more frequent as he grows older. While playing at Fenway Park has given him a boost, he hasn’t tortured the Green Monster like we all anticipated he would. As his power wanes, the hard contact will too. If he were to accept less than $35 million a season, that decline wouldn’t be nearly as difficult to stomach, but for that kind of money, the Red Sox are better off turning their attention elsewhere. Internally, there’s one name that stands out as the replacement to Bregman at the hot corner: Marcelo Mayer. Bregman’s injury earlier in the season allowed for the team to call up Mayer and he performed incredibly well as the starting third baseman in many respects. His glove rivaled Bregman’s, and arguably even looked better as the young gun got more comfortable. Obviously, the offensive drop-off is significant from Bregman to Mayer, but if the rookie comes into camp knowing he has the edge for a starting spot on the team, he’s going to come in ready to show just why the team picked him in the first round. Mayer wasn’t able to tap into his offensive talent much before his injury. The intangibles are there though, and as long as he can avoid spending significant time on the injured list, he would be a fine replacement for Bregman, even if the lineup is sapped of some valuable middle-of-the-order production. After that though, the system is pretty thin. The Red Sox traded Blaze Jordan to the Cardinals, and Abraham Toro has been playing third for the WooSox since his demotion, but he's hardly a regular at the MLB level. That leaves free agency as the next likely option to fill a potential Bregman void. The third base free agent market isn’t incredibly robust. After Bregman, the only options you’d likely consider as regulars are Eugenio Suarez and Max Muncy. Both players have the ability to perform well at Fenway, but are question marks in terms of fit and defensive value. Obviously, Bregman will remain an option until he has signed elsewhere, but the Red Sox should be unwilling to pay $35 million a season for a third baseman who is certainly nearing the end of his prime. If someone like the Yankees or Tigers want to be hamstrung by that contract, let them. This era of the Red Sox has been defined by cautious, low-risk, long-term investments. Bregman is the kind of high-floor player worth investing in, but at his age, the risk on any contract will go up exponentially for every year that is tacked on. Let's get something straight: Alex Bregman is a great baseball player. I even advocated for him to be in Boston until the end of his career at one point, but that was before these contract numbers started getting thrown around. The Red Sox have actively worked to avoid being a franchise saddled with a big contract that is sure to become an albatross toward the the latter end. If Bregman is willing to come down on his number to stay in Boston, great. If not though (likely, since his agent is Scott Boras), let him be someone else’s financial headache starting next season. View full article

Maddie and Alex discuss Roman Anthony's oblique injury and timeline, wondering how exactly the team will handle his return. They then dive into the latest Alex Bregman contract news and start to wonder what the team may look like next year with his potential absence. They pick up the attitude with a look into Payton Tolle's first start and the domination that led to Aroldis Chapman's surprise extension. Finally, they end the show with a sincere thank you to the fans who have made the last year of Talk Sox possible. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-talk-sox-podcast/id1783204104 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3qPrPXEngu0CxgTmlf0ynm Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-talk-sox-podcast-244591331/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/4tmd121v Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@talksox View full article

Roman Anthony’s oblique injury could not have come at a worse time. The Red Sox are in the midst of a playoff push and now have to try and find a suitable replacement for their star leadoff hitter. Anthony has been one of the best players in all of baseball since his call-up in June, and his presence in the lineup be virtually impossible to replicate. Alex Cora told the media on Wednesday that Anthony has a four-to-six-week recovery timetable. Four weeks from September 3 is October 1, also known as the second game of the Wild Card series. That six-week timeline puts him returning somewhere around the end of the ALDS and the start of the ALCS. That’s less than ideal. There may be a push, even from Anthony himself, to rush back as the season draws to a close. The team needs to tread carefully here, though, and not push him to come back before he’s ready, even if the team goes far in the postseason. Oblique injuries are notoriously difficult to predict. They limit the movement of a player’s core and make it almost impossible for them to swing a bat with much success. While Anthony has been great in the outfield, his offense has had the biggest impact on this team. Anthony playing at 75-80% is likely going to be better than a vast number of fully healthy players, but everyone needs to consider the future of the young phenom. We don’t have to look outside of the division to see what could happen if a player with an oblique injury returns before they should. Orioles’ catcher Adley Rutschman was first placed on the 10-day IL in June with a right oblique strain. He returned from that injury in early August and then promptly wound up back on the 10-day IL with a left oblique strain on August 18. Should Anthony be rushed back within the suggested timeline, it’s not farfetched to think that he could suffer a similar fate. On the other hand, the argument for rushing Anthony back is pretty easy: there’s no one currently healthy that can even come close to replacing his production on offense. Wilyer Abreu is still on the injured list and hasn’t resumed running, so the rest of his regular season could be in question. They can, and likely will, run Rob Refsnyder out to right in most games, but he’s no longer a the caliber of player who should be a regular on a playoff team. Jhostynxon Garcia looked overmatched in his quick cup of coffee with the big-league team and can’t be counted on to produce down the stretch. The interesting option here would be Kristian Campbell, but he doesn’t have the arm to play right field at Fenway Park ,and his outings in the outfield have been less than impressive so far. Ceddanne Rafaela has the arm and the ability to play right at Fenway, but he’s the best center fielder on the team (potentially in the league), and needs to be roaming there every game from here on out. Jarren Duran doesn’t have the arm to play right field. All that being said, it's still not worth rushing Anthony back. If there's even a slim chance that doing so could hamper his future or offseason preparation, then forget it. He’s the building block of this organization and putting him in a position where he could exacerbate an injury like this isn't good business, especially considering that he just signed an eight-year mega-contract. As such, rushing Roman Anthony back needs to be the furthest thing from the minds of the Red Sox’s front office. He’s far too valuable to be put in that situation at this stage of his career. The Red Sox and their fans want a deep playoff run this season, and a healthy Roman Anthony likely gets them there, but we are far closer to the start of their championship window than the end. The young core of this team is locked into multi-year extensions that will keep that window wide open for years to come. If, and that’s a big if, Roman Anthony bounces back quickly from this oblique injury, then it’s entirely possible we could see him before the season is over. I wouldn’t expect that to be the case, though. The team needs to tread lightly and allow him as much time as necessary to heal and recover. The rookie will be a superstar in this league—if he isn't already—and the team needs to make decisions with his long-term future in mind. View full article

Previously, I wrote about four potential names that could be called up once rosters expand to begin September. Little did I know that I’d bat .750 with three of the four names getting called up during the month of August. I noted at the bottom that Kristian Campbell was left off that list because even after the month-long tear he was on in Worcester at the time, I just couldn’t see the team bringing him up with no natural position to play after the team acquired Nathanial Lowe to play first and David Hamilton slotting in at second base. On top of that, there was a chance that Campbell could get back to the majors and fall flat on his face, again. That potential failure could have done a lot of long-term, and that’s something that the Red Sox should actively avoid. So, correctly, the team opted for two other names to be called up instead: recently-signed catcher Ali Sanchez, and right-handed reliever Zack Kelly. Sure, those names aren’t striking fear into the hearts of the opponents, but it leaves some flexibility with the roster as Wilyer Abreu is preparing to return from his stint on the injured list. Campbell needs to spend the rest of the season with the WooSox to allow him to continue to rebuild his game on both sides of the ball with far less pressure than he would face with the big-league club. If we look at Campbell’s numbers after his demotion, there’s not a ton there that suggests he would find his April footing should he be called back up. He’s currently slashing .265/.382/.412 with 30 RBIs, seven home runs, 32 walks, and 65 strikeouts in 57 against Triple-A arms. While it’s not bad, it doesn’t paint a picture of someone who is banging down the door to face big league pitching. There could be an argument to be made that him figuring it out at the major league level would be more beneficial—just look at how Roman Anthony has shined since his promotion in June—but that’s not a risk you take when you’re in the middle of a playoff hunt. He’s still young and having two less-than-stellar stints with the Sox could cause him to question if he can actually perform at the highest level. He seems like the type of player who could overcome that eventually, but there’s no reason to risk that situation when there are other members of the team that aren’t viewed as foundational pieces of the future of the team. As it currently stands, Campbell also doesn’t have a natural position to play. David Hamilton is playing well at second, Nathanial Lowe and Romy Gonzalez are splitting time at first, and Trevor Story shouldn’t move off short for anyone not named Marcelo Mayer (who is now out for the season). The outfield is already too crowded, but with Anthony leaving Tuesday’s game with an oblique injury, there may be some movement there. One of the reasons it’s believed Campbell struggled so bad early in the season was because he had no true position on the field. He made appearances at second, left, and center while with the Red Sox, and he was preparing to play first base going into the road series at Atlanta before his demotion. Professional baseball is a hard enough sport to be successful in, and it has to be harder when you are shuffled around the field constantly. That’s not a knock on Alex Cora; the team needed Campbell to be that versatile, but for a rookie who just signed a life-changing extension, it made things even more difficult for him. Now, every spot he could play in is held by someone who has been more successful with the team. Keeping him at Worcester through the end of the season, unless there is another injury to a starter in the infield, will allow him to keep developing. Expect Campbell to enter spring training in a competition for a spot on the diamond with the Boston Red Sox. His contract guarantees he will be a name considered no matter what, but it just doesn’t make sense to have him on the roster while the team is fighting for a playoff spot right now. Could he contribute? Probably, but not at a level that you can guarantee would be better than anyone currently on the 28-man roster. The best move here is to keep Campbell in the minors and give him a position to solely focus on for 2026. If he’s given a full offseason to work on one position, he should hold a tremendous advantage over anyone else he would be in competition with in spring training. Campbell is a good baseball player, and could be a star in this league, but the heat of a playoff chase isn’t the time for such a large question mark. View full article

In very unexpected news after a lopsided loss to the Pirates on August 30, the Red Sox agreed on an extension with left-handed closer Aroldis Chapman. Per Chris Cotillo, the extension guarantees Chapman $13.3 million for 2026 with a vesting option for 2027 based on the number of innings he throws next season. He’s getting a raise on his one-year, $10 million contract he signed before the 2025 season, and he’s more than earned it. Through 52 innings pitched, he owns an incredible 1.04 ERA, 1.83 FIP, and 2.2 WAR, to go along with an astronomical 38.7% strikeout rate. He’s almost guaranteed to receive some Cy Young votes and should be the top name in contention for the Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year award. He’s had a career resurgence in Boston, a team that he said he always wanted to play for. The elephant in the room, though, is that Chapman is 37 and was just extended into his age-38 (and possibly 39) season. Craig Breslow and the front office are gambling a bit with this, but it’s a gamble worth taking if Chapman is even half of the pitcher he has been this season.. One of the biggest reasons the Red Sox are confident in this extension is, for the most part, Chapman has been consistently healthy. He’s missed blocks of time throughout his MLB career, but rarely has it been for anything involving his left elbow. He’s been sidelined with shoulder fatigue on occasion, but his elbow has remained steady, even with him still touching 100 mph on the radar gun at 37 years old. There is always concern with pitchers -- especially relievers who go in short, one-inning bursts -- that their elbow could cause them issues at any point, but *knocks on wood* that hasn’t happened so far with Chapman. This season, he seems to be tunneling his pitches better than he has in years past, and instead of being the wild flamethrower he became known for, he’s mastered his overall command to make his pitch mix play off each other. Opposing hitters can no longer sit on his off-speed pitches and wait for him to throw four balls with his heater like they have in years past because his primary pitches are commanding the strike zone better than ever. Hitters are only making solid contact 10.7% of the time and barreling balls at a 6.8% rate. He’s generating more swing and miss than he has in recent memory. His first pitch strike percentage currently sits at 70.2%, the highest in his career by a fairly large margin. He’s proven that it’s possible to reinvent yourself, even if your overall approach remains the same, late in your career. Coming to Boston seems to have breathed new life into Chapman, so there’s little reason to expect his career to take a drastic nosedive in 2026. Finally, Chapman originally signed with the Red Sox not knowing if he would be the team’s closer. When he showed up to spring training, there was instant competition for the ninth-inning role, even if looking back on the competitors leaves us with a bad taste in our mouth. Chapman was expected to compete alongside Justin Slaten and, yes, Liam Hendriks for the closer role, with Garrett Whitlock potentially mixing in as well. Even on the Talk Sox Podcast, we discussed how we’d go with anyone over Chapman due to his recent track record in the big leagues and hoped he could ‘find success’ as an eighth-inning set-up man. You know the story from there. The wheels fell off for Hendriks before he ever could get going, Slaten looked great when splitting closing chances early on but then hit the injured list, and Whitlock stepped into his set-up man role with confidence and poise. As such, the only steady presence in that closer role since spring was Aroldis Chapman. He came into camp as a proven champion as a closer and knew he was going to have to compete with guys to win the role. He shined under the pressure and became the best closer in the American League. Keeping him around for 2026, and possibly for 2027, is a no-brainer simply because he offers a pedigree that was missing from the bullpen for the past few seasons. He’s a winner, a champion, and a leader. Now that he’s anchoring the back-end of the bullpen for another season, he can pass along that wisdom to the next crop of Red Sox relievers. Even after extending Chapman, there’s still work to be done in the offseason to shore up the bullpen. Having an MVP-caliber closer already in place for next season goes a long way though. Even if Chapman can’t reproduce his incredible 2025 season ever again, he’s still one of the most valuable arms on the roster. When he jogs in from the bullpen, the atmosphere in the stadium changes. You know you’re about to see him reach back and throw gas, then stare down the opposing dugout after he gets a strikeout to end the game. Yes, he’s going to be 38 when this extension kicks in, but he’s proven this season that he could be a couple of steps ahead of Father Time. If he can keep up the pace, this extension could be added to the list of ‘incredibly smart deals by Craig Breslow’ that seems to just keep growing by the week. View full article

The Boston Red Sox are calling up their number two ranked prospect, LHP Payton Tolle, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Tolle has been on an insane rise through Boston’s system after being taken in the second round of the 2024 draft out of TCU. Tolle made three starts for Triple-A Worcester before his call up. Tolle’s first taste of WooSox action was less than desirable, but he has rebounded and shown enough that the Red Sox feel comfortable lining him up to start opposite Pirates’ phenom Paul Skenes on Friday at Fenway Park. The organization is showing a ton of confidence in the young hurler and he looks to slot in behind Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito as the fourth arm on the starter depth chart. Should Tolle dominate at the major league level the way he has at every level of the minors, then the Red Sox have added another long-term keeper to their starting rotation. That should help them to kickstart their championship window, possibly as soon as this year. View full rumor

Lucas Giolito has an interesting decision coming at the end of the season. When he signed a two-year contract in Boston before the 2024 campaign, the team included a clause that would hopefully protect themselves in the event of another injury. Should Giolito pitch under 140 innings in 2025, the team held a club option. If he goes over 140 innings this season, that club option converts to a mutual option. As you likely know, the 31-year-old righty is on pace to blow by 140 innings this season, even with the team easing him into the rotation to begin the season after a hamstring strain slowed his start during spring training. The team could limit Giolito’s innings over the remainder of his starts, but they’d be shortchanging themselves out of their third best starter and opening up their bullpen to be further taxed as we head into September. Neither of those are things that a team interested in playing in October should do. The front office should want the best version of Giolito for the remainder of this season, and for seasons moving forward. Giolito has made it clear he wants to win in Boston and there’s a chance that could be this year. Starting next season, though, the championship window is wide open. If Giolito wants to be part of that, then it’s in the best interest of both parties to exercise their mutual option this winter so he can remain with the Red Sox. From the front office's side, it sounds like Craig Breslow is exceedingly interested in bringing Giolito back for next season. He told MassLive: “You hope that these situations are clear. When you’re pushing for a playoff spot, they are. We’re all incentivized to do whatever we can to win games. The most important thing after that is actually just making sure he’s healthy and recovering and that we’re monitoring the workload so that he’s in a position to help us every five days…We try to keep the focus on the field right now but it’s impossible to ignore the way he has stabilized the rotation behind Garrett (Crochet). He and (Brayan) Bello have done a great job there. This is a place that he has been very outspoken about in terms of how comfortable he feels here and how magical Fenway has been. He has helped us win a ton of games. He has been a great addition to the group. When the time comes, we’ll have those conversations.” Sure, you could read into the ‘we’re monitoring the workload’ comment as a potential nod towards them limiting his innings to make sure he stays under 140, but that feels far more like a stretch. Giolito has been a consistent starter for this team for the bulk of the season. He’s currently sporting a 3.47 ERA with 99 strikeouts over 119.1 innings pitched. Most recently, he threw an absolute gem of eight innings, zero runs, four hits, one walk, and eight strikeouts against the overlooked Baltimore Orioles. In that outing, his changeup looked more lethal than it has all season. Will Flemming described it on WEEI’s call of the game as ‘having a parachute attached to it’ because hitters were fooled almost every time he threw it. It’s no wonder that Breslow and company are interested in bringing him back next season—he’s the exact type of pitcher that pitching coach Andrew Bailey can work with and mold into whatever the team needs him to be. Things are a bit more complicated from Giolito’s side of the mutual option equation. Should he turn down the option and test free agency, he’ll likely put himself in line for a pretty sizable raise with a multi-year contract attached to it. That’s an opportunity that would be difficult for anyone to turn down, but especially a pitcher who has endured a season-ending injury last season and was one of the most inconsistent pitchers in the league before then. He turns 32 in the middle of next season, and while his velocity has stayed steady post-injury, things will likely begin to tick down sooner rather than later. He seems to fit into the Red Sox’s system like a hand in a glove, though. He’s bought in all the way and would likely be considered the shining star of Bailey’s pitching lab this season. Picking up his side of the mutual option allows for him to remain a core member of the organization for next season, when the championship window will also truly be open. Plus, he'd avoid getting slapped with the dreaded qualifying offer, which could hamper his market in free agency. However, that would open him up to the possibility of being handed one next offseason, which could complicate matters furhter. Thus, at the end of the day, no one knows exactly what will happen with Lucas Giolito and his (likely) mutual option. What we do know is that he has been one of the three most dependable starters for this rotation and will likely be trusted to start playoff games behind Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello come October. The importance of his presence in the dugout and on the mound cannot be overstated, and the Red Sox should be interested in bringing him back for 2026 and possibly beyond. Giolito may decide to test free agency and see what he can get on the open market, but putting another successful year under his belt in Boston could go a long way for future earnings should he choose to exercise his part of the mutual option. It's a rare occurrence in baseball, but that mutual option could be the best option for both sides this winter. With a playoff run still awaiting Giolito and the Red Sox, this partnership may not be nearing its end, after all. View full article

Roman Anthony has been as advertised, without a doubt. The young phenom rarely looks overmatched at the plate, puts swings on pitches that some veteran big leaguers would gawk at, and has adapted to play both corner outfield spots whenever he’s asked. What is maybe even more impressive, though, is the plate discipline he’s shown in his young career. He’s striking out some, especially on off-speed pitches that he rarely saw in the minors, but his eye while he’s in the batter’s box is something that even most veteran players don’t possess. He’s currently one of two players on the Red Sox with a chase rate below 20%. The other name? Alex Bregman. There are even more similarities between the two, though, and that should mean that the rookie is primed to become a superstar in this league. Roman Anthony is posting a chase rate of 19.2%, while Alex Bregman’s is 19.4%. Anthony technically still isn’t a qualified hitter per Baseball Savant, but if he were, his chase rate would be amongst the best 25 or so players in the league. For reference, Bregman sits in the 94th percentile at the moment. Due to his injury, Bregman has only 100 more plate appearances than Anthony on the season. Bregman holds 33 more hits than his rookie counterpart, 11 more home runs, and 26 more RBIs. What's really fascinating is that they both have 37 walks, and Anthony only carries 11 more strikeouts on the season. Sure, they hit from opposite sides of the plate, but their offensive profiles are incredibly similar. Their fWARs are within almost a point of each other already, Bregman sitting at a 3.4 mark and Anthony with a 2.3. Their wRC+ figures sit close as well, 153 for Bregman and 139 for Anthony. Beyond that, their batted ball metrics also mirror one another, a far better predictor for future outcomes. Anthony and Bregman are both pull hitters, pulling the ball 42.5% and 50.6% of the time, respectively. Anthony is slightly more inclined to hit to the opposite field (21.9% for him versus 14.9% for Bregman), though that means they both use the middle of the field about one third of the time. Those are the kinds of spray charts elite hitters have, and it's why Anthony and Bregman lead the team in most offensive rate categories. Their quality of contact paints a fairly similar picture as well. They both do a solid job of limiting weak contact, though Anthony has him lapped in hard contact, and that should come as a surprise to no one. Anthony is posting an incredible 44.5% hard rate against Bregman’s 34.5%. When Anthony makes contact it’s loud, even when it’s on the ground. It should come as no surprise then that Roman Anthony and Alex Bregman are seen together frequently in the dugout. Bregman took on a coaching style role with the organization during his stint on the injured list, and Anthony benefitted greatly from it. Anthony even moved his locker in the clubhouse to be next to Bregman’s. There are reports that Bregman was coaching both Anthony and Marcelo Meyer through their at-bats after games and having them take dry swings so they could make adjustments in the cage the next day. The similar offensive numbers shouldn’t shock us at all. especially seeing as the two have the most raw talent of anyone in Boston's clubhouse. While under Bregman’s wing, Anthony has flourished as soon as even the most optimistic prognosticators could have hoped. Under the hood, there are a ton of similarities between Alex Bregman and Roman Anthony. As the rookie spends more time at the big league level, expect some fluctuation as the league adjusts to him and vice versa. Should Alex Bregman re-sign with the Red Sox, he will be in a prime position to help guide the younger generation to success and, hopefully, World Series titles. If Bregman is the face of the franchise this season, Anthony will be for years to come. More than anything else that happens this season, that should be music to the ears of all of us. View full article

I get what Alex Cora is trying to do by playing Ceddanne Rafaela at second from time to time. It allows for everyone jumbled in the outfield logjam, minus Rob Refsnyder, to play at the same time, and that should mean that the offense is as potent as possible. Roman Anthony gets to play his future position in left, Jarren Duran shifts to center where he has been passable in the past, and Wilyer Abreu gets to shine in right field. The issue here is moving Rafaela out of center field, a position where he likely will win a Platinum Glove at some point in his career, is maddening. The defensive value that Rafaela brings to center outweighs any issues caused by moving other players to second base while the team still tries to figure out how to navigate the position after Marcelo Mayer went on the injured list with a wrist injury. While Mayer’s bat had been less than ideal for the Sox, his defensive abilities made up for that. Losing him stung on defense, but taking your best outfield defender and shifting him into the infield isn’t the right move. Offensively, Rafaela is a shell of himself when he’s playing second base. He’s had 66 plate appearances at second and he’s currently slashing .143/.182/.159. He’s struck out 15 times with 45 whiffs, and walked only three times. He’s had only nine hits, with zero home runs, and his hard-hit percentage is an abysmal 20.8%. His average exit velocity clocks in at 82 mph. When he’s in center though, he’s a completely different offensive player. There, he’s slashing .277/.318/.483. He’s had 97 hits with 14 home runs. He’s struck out 70 times and the walks, of course, are still low at 17. However, his hard-hit rate jumps to 46.1% and his average exit velocity is 90.7 mph. Center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela is frustratingly hot and cold, but he at least looks comfortable at the plate. Second base Rafaela feels more like a bottom-of-the-order hitter who is only on the roster because he’s a solid defender. He looks like he’s pressing more when he’s playing second instead of naturally letting the game come to him by searching for his pitches and capitalizing on mistakes. Defensively, Rafaela has a case to be the best center fielder in the game. He makes even the most difficult plays look routine. Anything hit to center feels like an automatic out with him roaming there because he has the perfect combination of speed and baseball IQ to take the correct routes to fly balls.. He’s sure-handed with his glove and, typically, his relay throws are on point. Sure, he’s sailed a few and thrown to the wrong base now and then, but the positives vastly outweigh the negatives. His Outs Above Average in center? An astonishing 15. He’s also been good for 16 Defensive Runs Saved, if that's more your speed. At second base, though, his OAA and DRS are both -1. He sort of passes the eye test at second because he’s making routine plays and even some more difficult ones, but the underlying numbers are what they are. He’s a liability on both sides of the baseball when he’s at second. Maybe the biggest issue, though, is the Red Sox have to play Ceddanne Rafaela at his natural position once the postseason gets here. The absolute worst-case scenario will be having him start games at second and then shifting to center in the late innings. That puts him out of position for the bulk of the game and forces him to hit while he’s not in his usual head space. Instead, the Red Sox should have him stick in center and build the line up around that. Ideally, the Red Sox will run an outfield of Roman Anthony in left, Rafaela in center, and Wilyer Abreu in right, with Jarren Duran at DH through the postseason. That is their best offensive lineup, even with Masataka Yoshida leading the team in OPS over the last 15 games. Abraham Toro’s lack of offensive production makes the conversation a bit more difficult, but with the team bringing in Nathaniel Lowe, Romy Gonzalez now has the runway to shift to second base as needed through the playoffs. Gonzalez deserves to be in the lineup on a daily basis and plays a capable second base. Someone like Nate Eaton (or David Hamilton) could also get some starts at the keystone, especially if the goal is to keep Gonzalez on the bench against right-handed pitchers. The point is: There’s plenty of options for the Red Sox to keep Rafaela in center field from here on out. In conclusion, Rafaela needs to be in center field full time for the remainder of the season as the Red Sox make a push for the playoffs. He’s the best defender on the team and his natural position is of the utmost importance defensively. On top of that, he seems far more comfortable at the plate as a center fielder. Alex Cora has done a lot of things right for the Red Sox this year, but shuffling Rafaela around isn’t one of them. Play your best players at their best positions, and the rest will figure itself out. View full article

When Roman Anthony signed his eight-year contract extension, we all started to wonder who would be next in line to receive one. Obviously, two members of the Big Three have now been locked into life-changing contracts with the club, but that leaves Marcelo Mayer all by his lonesome without much more than arbitration to guarantee his future earnings with the club. Now dealing with another injury to his wrist, this one requiring surgery and a three-month recovery timetable, there’s more uncertainty when, or if, Mayer will be celebrating an extension any time soon. If Mayer continues to grow at the major league level, and there’s little reason to believe he won’t, it’s a conversation that can be revisited down the road and likely after a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is agreed to in 2027. Before even considering offering Mayer a contract extension, it must be acknowledged that he has yet to register a full season of games at any professional level. If we look back from the date he was signed, July 22, 2021, we see a growing number of days spent on the injured list. He was placed on the seven-day injured list in 2022, then again in 2023, and again in 2024 with both Portland at Worcester. In fact, his call up to Worcester coincided with an injury that wouldn’t allow him to take the field for the WooSox at all last season. Now, he’s been shelved for the rest of the season in 2025. He’s likely to be ready for spring training in 2026 and should compete for a starting position somewhere on the infield, but it feels like time is starting to run out for the former first-round pick to join his Big Three brethren in the "surefire" camp of young stars. There was a case to be made coming out of spring training that Mayer should have broken camp with the big-league club; he was one of the hottest hitters as the exhibition period drew to a close. He seemed primed to break out after having great at-bats against big league caliber arms. The team knew better than those of us on the outside though, and decided that he needed a bit more seasoning at Triple-A. Then, due to an injury to Alex Bregman, Mayer was called up to the big league roster and failed to make much of an impact. Sure, his first few at-bats were must see TV and he was making highlight reel caliber plays at third, but those trips to the plate were less than ideal most of the time. He rarely looked like the moment was too big for him, but you could tell he had never experienced pitching of that caliber before and he struggled with anything off-speed. His bat started to come around a bit after he settled in, but it failed to live up to the hype. That’s not Mayer's fault just yet—rookies are wont to struggle in their first taste of MLB action—and he should become a regular in the lineup, but he has shown nothing to the front office after his call-up to give them enough confidence to offer him an extension, even one cheaper than Kristian Campbell’s. That’s not to say Marcelo Mayer won’t live up to the hype or become a franchise cornerstone for the Red Sox. He’s one of the most natural baseball players we’ve seen in the organization in years and should figure things out, but a re-aggravation on a wrist injury should give the team some pause for concern. As it currently stands, we shouldn’t expect Mayer’s name to come up regarding extension talks any time soon. He’s done little to nothing at the major league level to prove worthy of the investment, and he’s inching ever closer to the ‘injury prone’ tag that all players hope to avoid. The team is obviously heavily invested in his future, though, and with a full offseason to make sure his wrist is okay and stable enough to handle the pressures of playing a major league infield position. Mayer could quell a lot of doubts next season. Should he prove that he can make it through a full season without a trip to the IL, then it’s not out of the realm of possibility for the front office to approach him with an extension to keep the Big Three together for the foreseeable future. If not, well, Mayer won’t reach free agency until 2032 without an extension. There's no rush here, especially with a player as talented as Mayer. View full article

What’s that? Can you feel it? A slight chill in the air as you’re settling in to watch the Red Sox each night as we move ever closer to playoff baseball? Well, there’s no chill in my part of the country yet, but I can pretend to be in the early stages of a New England fall as I sit in my air-conditioned living room while the sun cooks everything outside that dares to stand still for long enough. Watching these Red Sox play meaningful baseball this far into August is a breath of fresh air and has me thinking about what the roster will look like next month as the team makes its final push for the playoffs. Although not something designated solely for playoff-bound teams, the September call-ups will be here before we know it, and the team has to make decisions that can help alleviate some burden on the regulars prior to October. While only two players will get the call-up (one position player and one pitcher), there are a handful of them that deserve the honor. Let’s take a look at some of the Red Sox's options and what they could contribute during the stretch run. Payton Tolle, LHP Arguably the most exciting name on the list, Tolle could see his number called during September to give the Red Sox another starting arm. This would allow for them to build in an extra day of rest for the top of the rotation to help keep them fresh down the stretch. Tolle features a four pitch mix: a four-seamer that averages 94.2 mph, a slider that averages 85.7 mph, a curveball that averages 82.1 mph, and a cutter that averages 89.9 mph. Tolle was knocked around in his first appearance with Worcester—he’s currently sporting a flat 9.00 ERA in five innings pitched where he struck out three, walked one, and gave up two home runs. That being said, he should settle down quickly and return to the performance he showcased at Double-A Portland. Tolle has the makings of a front-of-the-rotation, playoff-caliber starter. Bringing him up for a cup of coffee would likely include him starting down the stretch and then moving to the bullpen for the playoffs, where his stuff would play up quite a bit. Tolle would have to be added to the 40-man roster to facilitate a call-up. David Sandlin, RHP Like Tolle, Sandlin landed with the WooSox relatively recently and has had a mixed bag of results. He made one start in his initial debut with the club and has since been moved to the bullpen in preparation for a late season call-up. He pitched well in his one start, going five innings and giving up one run. Since then, he’s been less than stellar out of the bullpen, notching six strikeouts and four walks while allowing a .318 batting average to opposing hitters. His hard-hit percentage is a staggering 47.1%. That’s a far cry from the pitcher he had been with Portland earlier in the season, but there’s likely a logical explanation for that. As JP Riccardi said recently on an episode of "310 to Left", he believes that the reason for Sandlin’s lack of success in the bullpen is that he’s still adjusting to the role. As a starter, you know when you’re throwing because you’re on a tight schedule. As a reliever, it’s a completely different mentality. Some pitchers are able to flip that switch easily, but others take time to readjust the to the life of a reliever. Sandlin is likely still trying to find his footing in the 'pen, but once that happens, he should be a capable arm for the Sox down the stretch. Like Tolle, he would have to be added to the 40-man roster to be called up. Nate Eaton, INF/UTL We now go from young, exciting, electric pitchers to a utility player that has already been with the big league club this season. We all know who Eaton is as a player; he’s not exciting, but he’s very steady. He can shift around the field easily to give regulars a day off throughout September and has a decent enough offensive approach to not be an automatic out at the plate. He’s not going to hit a ton of homers, or any at his current rate, but he showed that he can put the ball in play and utilize the Green Monster to his advantage when the team is playing at home. Eaton isn't a can’t-miss call-up, but he could prove to be a dependable one down the stretch. David Hamilton, INF/UTL Now we go from one player we’ve seen on the big league club to one that we’ve probably seen enough of on a big league club, but don’t be shocked if David Hamilton is one of the names called up next month. He will serve no other purpose than a late-inning pinch runner and a cross-your-fingers-and-hope pinch hitter. Hamilton offers nothing besides speed and some defensive versatility to the Red Sox at this point. If he’s called up, he'll be asked to fill a very niche role Even then, I’d trust the bulk of the roster over him, though as someone who could give some infielders a day off in September, his status as an active 40-man roster player could get him some love once again from the front office. There are other deserving players at Worcester that could get the nod beyond this quartet. I left Kristian Campbell off this list because I’d be shocked if he makes another appearance for the big league club this season. He’s on a tear at Triple-A at the moment, but you’d hate to bring a guy up just for him to fail again before the offseason. The best course of action with Campbell is to let him continue getting reps at first in the minors and then give him an entire offseason to learn the position instead of moving him from spot to spot. Jhostynxon Garcia isn’t included because he has no actual spot to play for the big league club at the moment. Like Campbell, if he’s going to shift to first base, then he needs an entire offseason to work on it before debuting with the big league club. Both of their bats could be extremely useful, but forcing two rookies without true defensive homes to step in during the heat of the playoff push might be asking just a bit too much. Regardless, the Red Sox are poised to be a playoff team come October, and picking the right names to call up in September will be crucial to their success for the rest of the season. View full article