Odd that the Yanks called up Gil who has struggled this year at AAA instead of Schmidt.
Especially given Schmidt's success this year at the ML level and that runs may be hard to come by against cease, who is having a very good year so far.
My eyes are bad but that looks like the same link, when I refreshed the page on my computer it updated to the odds you posted.
I guess some games may have just ended that changed the odds.
Fangraphs has the twinkies at 49%, not 39% and the rays at 59%, not 61%.
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
If my 4+ decades of watching baseball has taught me anything, it's to not be surprised by surprises.
I guess a team higher in the standings could actually have a lower % of making the playoffs than the sox.
It wouldn't surprise me if the orioles have less of a % chance than the sox.