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Everything posted by 5GoldGlovesOF,75
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Ah, 1961. Those were the days... when the Red Sox could go 50-31 at Fenway Park and still finish 33 games out of first place. Boston went with a youth movement in '61, starting three rookies. The Big Three turned in varied first years: starting pitcher Don Schwall, 25, won 15 games, made the All-Star team and won AL Rookie of the Year. The second baseman named Schilling (Chuck), 23, led the league in plate appearances and finished 3rd in ROY; both also received MVP votes. A third rookie, age 21, checked in with a -0.3 WAR... that would be below a replacement player -- which is, ironically, who he was tasked with trying to be, replacing only the Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived in left field. (take heart, Campbell/Mayer/and some minute Anthony: maybe you, too, or three, could be a negative value rookie and someday have a loaf of bread named after youse).
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The entire point of keeping Rafaela in the line-up is so he can play elite centerfield. There's certainly no reason to move him to the infield to keep his bat in the line-up... Plus -- most befuddling -- who thinks Ceddanne is a better longterm starter at shortstop than Marcelo Mayer -- an actual shortstop?
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The difference between his fielding and an average RED SOX fielder is the point, though. They're all great at swinging and missing in the batter's box.... (except the pitchers, who don't bat, but can't do simple defensive tasks like cover first in time or throw accurately to any base other than 4th base).
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Article: Episode 12: Bregman Down, Mayer Up
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to Maddie Landis's topic in Talk Sox Front Page News
The mystery in Bello's climb to the majors is that he dominated at each level. Not every starting pitcher to make The Show has minor league ERAs in the 2s and WHIPs around 1. What has changed to make him so mediocre? Better overall hitters? Advanced scouting? Arm problems? Sleep deprivation? Or did coaches alter his mechanics in some organizational approach to battle launch angles?- 16 replies
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- alex bregman
- garrett crochet
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Not disagreeing about the pitching, but this offense has been overrated for two years. People can pick whatever stats they want to argue the Sox are good -- runs scored or OPS -- or bad -- LOB, Ks. But there's no mystery why Boston lost the past four games. A club averaging almost 5 runs per game has scored a total of 5 runs since Saturday night. Rafaela scored the Sox' lone run Tuesday on a wild pitch. Now that they've lost Bregman, a legitimate star batter, opponents have absolutely zero reason to ever throw Devers any hittable pitches. His new protection in the order is a catcher who spent all but 6 games last year in the minors, where he was a career .250 hitter. If only the Red Sox had a top prospect ready in Triple A, hitting .320 with a .981 OPS...!
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Fangraphs: "WAR is an estimate. You should not use WAR with the expectation that it is precise to the decimal point... WAR works best as an approximation... WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate. For example, a player that has been worth 6.4 WAR and a player that has been worth 6.1 WAR over the course of a season cannot be distinguished from one another using WAR. It is simply too close for this particular tool to tell them apart." Baseball Reference: "We present the WAR values with decimal places because this relates the WAR value back to the runs contributed (as one win is about ten runs), but you should not take any full-season difference between two players of less than one to two wins to be definitive (especially when the defensive metrics are included)... There is no one way to determine WAR. There are hundreds of steps to make this calculation, and dozens of places where reasonable people can disagree on the best way to implement a particular part of the framework..."
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"When Mayer commented about how great he is, it was a red flag that the Devers farm player pedestal still exists, and it sets expectations of player privileges that should not exist." Mayer didn't call Devers great, but Casas did in Spring Training when he said guys like Mayer should be sent back to Worcester. Of course, since you brought up farm players, anyone who watched those games in Florida remembers that Mayer clearly outplayed Kristian Campbell on offense and defense.
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- alex cora
- chaim bloom
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None of this post is outrageous, and I can see at the time the front office hoping Raffy wouldn't ask for a trade... ... not because they didn't want to be done with him, but because it would've been an even bigger distraction that the media would never let go of until Raffy was finally gone. Plus, they knew with Devers' mega-contract, they'd be lucky to get back just one Jeter Downs. Now Raffy is so hot, everyone's thankful it didn't happen -- lest there be a new bleacher section in Dodger Stadium called Raffywood (or the Raffters?).
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Bottom line is they can't admit they're punting until the trade deadline. Too many media heads commiserating daily with cranky callers for two months. But then maybe they can get something good by trading Chapman to a contender. How about it Royals? Chappy for Cole Ragans? You made that swap once already...
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If we know this, then the front office does, too. I just think in May it's about the PR; if they promote all the Big Three now and play them every game (which young guys have to do somewhere for development) -- even when the kids are taking their lumps -- it reveals what most of us know. This club isn't good enough this year, but if Brez and Co. admit that reality before summer even begins, it will badly affect ticket sales through September. But if management can still pretend the Sox have what it takes, they can wait to bring up Anthony by say, July, and he can be called a reinforcement... ... instead of what he really is: a guy who is ready to be a big leaguer now, and hopefully a star in future years.
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I used to think the best way to prevent Rafaela from swinging at the first pitch was to send him up to the plate without a bat -- just for the first pitch! Then I realized he still start the at bat 0-and-1 vs. every pitching staff in baseball except the one he can't face: the Red Sox. Then he'd swing at the next pitch anyway, and it'd be 0-and-2, as usual. But none of that matters, because all he'd have to do while standing there batless is bat an eyelash, causing the catcher to immediately point to the first base ump, who'd eagerly punch air to let the whole world know he went around.
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Isn't it obvious why I typed that? You confirmed the point I've been making since last season about this Red Sox offense -- 3rd in the AL in runs scored and runs per game -- both this year and last year. Statistically, the Sox may be highly ranked, but consistently they are just rank -- as in "bad-smelling, having an offensive rancid odor" (pun via vocabulary.com).
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Yes. Remember, this is a team that just averaged almost 7 runs per game in a four-game series vs. Baltimore -- and still lost half of them. Rafaela makes bad pitching mediocre, with spectacular catches on long drives, and laser throws to nail baserunners trying to advance on liners beyond his reach. According to my stats, he's a plus-25 ET (Eye Test).
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My scenario would improve the Sox by making room for Anthony by trading Abreu for another decent MLB pitcher. Anthony might not match Abreu's production, but we all know Sox will be dead by summer if they don't fortify the mound staff. Unfortunately, a significant trade is unlikely to happen until late-July, when all-in clubs are ready to deal. Until then, the best Brez can hope for, even for Abreu, is probably just a pitching prospect. But I wouldn't trade two MLB top-10 position player prospects, including the #1-rated overall, for one starting pitcher -- not even Skenes. Not in 2025... arm injuries are too frequent nowadays, especially with younger guys. Teams may think they have six years of control of a pitcher, but front offices realistically hope that's five (and not four). I wonder if Andrew Bailey would even trade a guy like Josh Reddick for himself today? By age 27 Bailey had 5.9 WAR for Oakland before being dealt to Boston. He pitched until age 33 and finished his career with the same 5.9 WAR. Reddick was a part-timer in Boston where he earned 1.6 WAR by age 24. After the trade he played another decade, hit 32 home runs once, earned a Gold Glove, and even won a trash-can ring in Houston. He finished with 25 WAR.
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Not looking to pick a fight with anyone. Even old hippies with cranky joints still favor peace. Answering the question: No. I'd move Abreu to another team for a legitimate pitcher. For a club like the Red Sox with a mostly mediocre defense and pitching staff, I need to keep my best defensive player in the middle of the action in centerfield (staring down at the other top D man, Narvaez). It's likely Anthony comes up and isn't as good as Abreu this season. But If this Boston team is serious about making the playoffs, it needs more good pitching -- in the rotation and bullpen. And the outfield surplus obviously presents the best trade chips...
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
That's as simple as Devers and his .409 On Base % in front of Bregman. Meanwhile, Raffy bats right after Duran and his .313 On Base %. Nowadays, in the age of Everybody Ks, the order doesn't make much difference (at least in Boston). Back when pitchers dominated last century, the tradition was to bat you best hitter 3rd, after a fast leadoff and a #2 guy who could hit a grounder to the right side. Now we have Schwarber leading off, for a quick lead with his HRs, and also because he wears down the pitcher for subsequent batters. Ideally, that's another good reason to bat a guy like Soto 2nd (at least last year it was). But one tradition remains: if the first three hitters all reach base, it sure helps to have a big bopper at clean-up who could potentially clear the sacks. That's why I'd bat Anthony 2, Bregman 3, Raffy 4. Clean-up just hasn't worked out much lately for guys the Sox were hoping on, like Dalbec and Casas. Maybe Justin Gonzales can someday be that guy. He's only 18, so if he arrives by, say 2027, the Sox might even promote Anthony and Mayer by then... -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The guy with a .449 On Base Percentage? The one who's walked as many times as he's struck out? He should bat in front of Devers and Bregman, to give the big men more chances to drive him in, since he gets on base at a higher rate than any current major leaguer except one guy atop the AL in OBP, and another atop the NL. Anthony in Boston could literally keep the line moving, but counterclockwise around the bases -- instead of trudging head-down from the batter's box to the dugout in the walk of K shame,

