5GoldGlovesOF,75
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Everything posted by 5GoldGlovesOF,75
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A Realistic View at 2021: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Could it be they also value his veteran leadership? Or is that asset just dismissed by analytics departments these days because that can't quantify it? I look at the Michael Taylor signing with KC for a paltry $1.75 M the other day and imagine Bloom nodding in validation (if you're an old Sox fan, you jam those last two words together). Teams are making moves every day now. The only really significant ones, barring a blockbuster trade, may be signing a QO free agent (Bauer, Springer, Realmuto, DJ). Unless a contender considers adding a reliever coming off a good year or two as significant... which, to them, it might be. -
But that may be enough to get things done, with this winter's market adjustments, as far as 2020 dollars affording 2020 players...
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A Realistic View at 2021: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I can't imagine the Yankees letting three starting pitchers from their rotation go and not signing Bauer... especially if the Mets are interested in him. -
I just posted something similar to this on the other thread. Maybe a '13 offseason strategy isn't so unreasonable.
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A Realistic View at 2021: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
As decent players continue to sign -- and establish the new Covid market for position players, starting pitchers and relievers -- I'm starting to come around to the idea that Bloom is sitting back watching and waiting as clubs fill their needs. Then, and maybe only then, will the Red Sox and their reset, big-market budget strike... and scoop up a lot of leftover talent that has no choice but to sign for the adjusted market price that Bloom's patience has re-established. -
That guy was clearly playing with PEHs (Performance Enhancing Hands). I had those once when I was a bachelor, before arthwrongis set in. I think the MLB named its first steroids report after him, too.
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Your first sentence made me nod (though not too early; young athletes need to stay in the game so they can stay in the game). But the last sentence made me cringe -- I just can't see his body type chasing down long drives over his head as he ages. I agree Cora is the key -- to Devers more than any other player. And by the time Casas is an everyday MLBer, JD will probably be gone. Then Rafie and Tris can share 1B/DH if need be.
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Maybe Mort's postseason resume got a few contenders to bid up -- compared to the rest of the $8-11 Mil signings so far. Or maybe the Braves, sensing they're very close to a title, just pulled a Dombro targeting their guys and getting it done while other clubs are still assessing the market (and vaccine progress, and how that might affect budgets). But I agree that Old Uncle Charlie isn't worth almost twice as much as way-under 30 ERod -- if the latter's indeed 100%... Assuming the costs of Bauer and Snell are non-starters (so punny), how high will Bloom go for, say, Odorizzi? Maybe a better question is how much of a paycut will Jake settle for? He ain't gettin no 17.8 this winter... unless it's a two-year deal.
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A Realistic View at 2021: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'd be shocked if Bloom signs any free agent with a qualifying offer, and gives up a draft pick. Then again, his bosses may tell him he has to, for the good of the product in 2021... which, if it's any of Bauer, Springer, Realmuto, doesn't that make the club better for the next three years or so, anyway? (esp. if the new CBA changes, as expected). -
Red Sox got their entire Paranormal Dept right now sitting around the Koji board. Bloom: "Don't press so hard!"
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A Realistic View at 2021: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Compared to the 2021 Sox, as is, the 2013 Sox had a big advantage going into the season: a healthy rotation. The Big Three were once again pitching like the All-Stars they once were -- Lester was still under 30, Lackey was a go from Day 1 (and not Day August 1, like we hope for Sale), and Buchholz was as good as anyone in the AL, until he got hurt. Bloom can most likely find a few #4/5 types like past-their-primes Dempster and Peavy, and maybe Pivetta and Houk can combine for Dubront's 29 starts. ERod is capable of giving us another ace-like 200+ innings like Lester, and Eovaldi has the goods to go on a Buch 13-1 run... possible, but reasonable? If they all do come through, we'll just need to discover a closer with a miracle year better than any in Mariano Rivera's career -- like Koji. The real key to contention for Boston in the coming season may just come down to how many clubs they decide to allow into the expanded playoffs. -
Agreed. The analytics department probably has its eyes on a slight upgrade bat they can just station in shallow rightfield to rob lefty pull hitters. Though Cora may prefer a legit gloveman, since he was one once in a bygone era (that spanned from the first Civil War to the start of the most recent one).
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... I watched those games; there was nothing fun about it.
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Don't go into the light!
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The "value" (or cost) of having Price in Boston the final three years of his contract also pertains to more than just his stats or performance on the mound. The Red Sox -- who are facing more competition than ever for fan attention and dollars for their team (and let's face it, their sport) in New England -- really need to be conscious of making their product likeable again. Losing the beloved Betts hurts, and re-signing Cora helps -- because most Sox fans will always associate him with greatness in Boston, and not his past in Houston. Finding others who fit in and thrive in this market has to be more of a factor than ever before... and maybe why signing outspoken guys like Bauer and Puig may give them pause.
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What do we call what the Red Sox are peering through now? There's no window... keyhole? knothole? crack in the wall? Slogging through an entire pandemic offseason, combined with Bloom's ultra-deliberate look-under-every-single-stone-in-the-quarry approach, makes an impatient Sox fan long for the Dombro days of recruiting: establish/broadcast need, attain/welcome acquisition, call it a week.
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... and it could even be in a different industry, since they all could be out of baseball in a few years. I was looking back at the Red Sox top 10, 20, 30 prospects from a decade ago; yikes. But somehow, Epstein pulled off the Adrian Gonzo trade -- a blockbuster at the time. AG was a number one overall draft pick and a budding star. The key guy going back to SD turned out to be Rizzo -- instead of the overrated Lars Anderson. Theo knew it, too, because the first thing he did when he joined the Cubs was to get Rizzo back (though he had to force himself to part with Andrew Cashner).
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Are you sure? The guy's weight is only listed at 180 pounds! His longterm production may only be limited to that of outfielders of similar poundage: Aaron 180, Yaz 175, Clemente 175 and Mays 170...
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I'm on the record for keeping Mata, our top pitching prospect (who I expect to see in the majors sometime in '21). I also wouldn't trade Casas, who is still growing while still improving. Who would you say are our top trading chips this winter, from the majors and then also from the minors? Because of contracts -- and assuming the Red Sox want to build around Devers and Verdugo -- I'd consider the following as the most valued chips: Vazquez, Dalbec, Hernandez, Chavis (Barnes?) from the 25-man, and Downs, Duran, Jimenez, Groome, Ward etc. from the minors. Any of them could be moved, and it won't move the Earth.
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Mark me down for Option A; I can't see trading young pitching prospects for older pitchers with "upside" (translation: guys who have so far shown more downside, if not backside). Option C looks like a steal for Ben, with two potential position regulars -- maybe even in '21 -- and two future replacements on the mound. Polanco is obviously the key to any deal, as Pitt desperately needs to delete his contract before another Covid season. Boston's reset budget can afford to absorb his $11.6M salary as the price to pay in order to upgrade the rotation. Polanco looks cooked, but maybe he can use a change of scenery -- like the one down the rightfield line in Yankee Stadium when he pinch-hits vs. a righty. According to bref (if I'm reading correctly), his deal has a team option buyout of $3M after next season, with another of $1M the year after...
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This. For those who blame '19 on Spring Training "preparation", I always cover for Cora... because I think he was covering for his players -- who had yet to recover. Such a toll may be why it's so hard to repeat. It may explain, for example, why only one team in the National League has won back-to-back titles in 100 years: the '75/'76 Reds, who featured more Hall of Fame caliber regulars than any club in the past half century.
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The bullpen struggles were directly a product of the rotation struggles. That, and the gap at the back end of missing Kimbrel dominance (which began the previous autumn). But the contrast between '18 and '19 wasn't just with the arms. As I posted about a week ago, it was with the legs, too. A hustling, aggressive offense that stole 125 bases in '18 returned basically the same starting lineup in '19... and only swiped 68. Why?
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We were going into that season with five good veteran starting pitchers. Two of them were coming off great postseasons. Another was a former Cy Young, while a fourth was just coming into his own. The ace wasn't 100 percent, but at the time of his contract extension was still on a Hall of Fame trajectory. Little did we know that all but Rodriquez -- the youngest, and least-used the previous October -- were burned out to some extent from the title run. Maybe the notorious hangover effect has always been more like a pedal-to-the-metal effect...
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I think it's more frequent to hear or read it like 1-2 away from contending, or even winning it all. "Competing" may be just winning as many as you lose. Sox fans that liked the Mookie trade give two reasons (besides that he's too greedy, and Henry would never be able to afford another good player again): we got prospects back before he walked for nothing, and besides, "the Sox weren't goin anywaa anyways". But Dodger fans will go to their graves knowing Betts was the final piece that put them over the top in 2020. I agree it's all about spending (though as much by how you spend, and not just how much). The '03 Sox were a Schilling, Foulke and Cabrera away from a ring, but the '12 Sox needed a Koji, Vic, Napoli, Drew and Gomes to compete/contend/conquer. The '18 Sox, as it turned out, needed a bit more than a Cashner, Owings and Gorkys Hernandez to repeat...
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Why was Mookie traded, exactly?
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
There are some of us who think DD offered extensions for Sale, Bogaerts, etc. only after he knew Betts was a goner. Dombro wouldn't come out and say it, but his "You can't keep them all!" quote turned out to be more revealing than speculative. In hindsight the Sale and Eovaldi signings look like poor investments so far, but imagine at the time the uproar if the Red Sox didn't try to keep their best team ever intact? Sure, Sale and Eovaldi were injury risks, but both had had their moments in winning the title.
