5GoldGlovesOF,75

No one available is -- in this market -- besides Bauer. I can't even imagine too many teams that would pay Stroman or Gausman (especially) $18 million a year, which is the qualifying offers they accepted, at least not for multi-year contracts. Small market teams and big market teams are in the same blinking contest.

For the Red Sox to contend in '21, this rotation needs a complete overhaul. Any contributions the Sox get from their top three of ERod, Eovaldi and Sale -- all question marks -- just cannot be anticipated. Anything from the bottom three of Pivetta, Mazza and Houk -- all projects -- will be a welcome bonus. Boston could sign the top two free agent starters, Bauer and Odorizzi, and still not be a playoff team next season. Realistically, even if Bloom splurged on both those guys, the club would probably have a better shot at making the postseason in '22, when hopefully one of either ERod and Sale were fully recovered and all the way back as frontline pitchers. The only thing guaranteed by adding three or four mediocre pitchers to a brutal staff is that the new staff will just become mediocre.

Wheeler? Is he the guy Bloom wants to invest $100 million in to lead this staff to sustained contention? I'm not saying he's not good, but last year was maybe his best year, albeit in a PSS (pandemic sample size): 11 games, 4-2, 2.92 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 1.169 WHIP... led the league in HR9 with 0.4, and HBP with 7 (he may not be a bat-finder, but he's a batter-finder). In comparison, here's Eovaldi's 2020: 9 games, 4-2, 3.72 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 1.200 WHIP. Wheeler's three months younger than Nate, who Boston only owes $34 million.

My first thought, too. My second, for the bashers -- what did Dombro always spend the most on? Pitching: Price, Kimbrel/Thornburg/Smith/Pomeranz/Reed/Sale/Eovaldi through trades (the cost was a lot of prospects)... and then resigning Sale and Eovaldi. Some worked out, many didn't, but that's one common method of team-building in baseball. Dombro has been successful in building winning teams, if not always world champs. And if you get past what Bloom was given to start his tenure here, his job is very similar to that of most GMs or Chief Officers: building a team with pitching. The post-'18 WS contracts to Sale and Eovaldi were risky, but can anyone argue that Dave didn't have Boston's best interests -- as a sustained contender -- in mind... ?

Sure it can -- for every Cabrera, Drew and Bogaerts, there's probably a Lugo lurking somewhere in somebody's past glory. But Epstein didn't think they could win with Nomar in '04, so he replaced him. Nobody who watches or plays baseball can deny the importance of having a good shortstop -- if you want to be a contender. Earl Weaver: "I think of Mark Belanger over and over again racing into the hole, making another great stop, digging in and gunning the ball to first to get the runner... without that kind of shortstop you can't win pennants." Of course, Belanger is an extreme case since the data shows this career .228 hitter as arguably the greatest shortstop in the history of the world. In DWAR he is second all-time -- at any position -- to Ozzie Smith, 44.2 to 39.5. But Belanger has the edge in Total Zone Runs, 241 to Smith's 239. TZR, it should be noted, is only accurate for around the past 70 years, so we don't have all the stats on legends like Joe Tinker or Rabbit Maranville... but those guys played on some good teams, too.

But as a fan -- and not a teammate -- here's what I noticed about OC's teams: '04 Boston, World Champs; '05 Angels, first place; '07 Angels, first place; '08 White Sox, first place; '09 Twins, first place; '10 Reds, first place. His clubs after the Red Sox didn't win in the postseasons, but that's a pretty good run.

My best case is that Sale rebounds to become a 30-game winner (in '21 and '22 combined), but the title asked for "realistic".

My realistic expectations are that even if Sale is full-steam ahead, they won't let him throw more than around 50 innings when he comes back in August and September. Best-case scenario gives him 5 starts of 5 IP for each month. But if Boston is about to win the World Series, Cora will let him fan Machado again to end it.

I'm not sure if you're setting me up with all the stats, since I claimed there are certain aspects of performance that can't be quantified. I didn't forget that Edgar had one of the greatest hits in MLB history, but even though he won the World Series, one can argue he did it while a Fish (in a sunny state known for orange juice), instead of in a Fish Bowl (in an uptight state infamous for religious fanatics burning women at the stake). It sure looks like the Sox suddenly changed their minds about him; for all we know, maybe he changed his own mind, didn't like the city or region, and wanted to return to somewhere warmer. It certainly wasn't all about the money.

That was my whole point -- it wasn't the fans nor the media that "ran him out of town". At the time, I didn't understand the downgrade from Cabrera (but didn't know about OC's character issues, either -- still rumors to this day... just like the one of Edgar supposedly blaming his bad D on the way the Fenway grounds crew maintained the infield).

The perceptions are not just created by the fans or the media. Otherwise, GMs from big markets wouldn't have to consider the very real question of whether a player can thrive under their big scrutiny and big expectations. There would also be no second-guessing from those who can afford to cut their losses, like the Sox sending Edgar Renteria back to the NL after one year... or when the Yankees traded three players mid-season, including Tewksbury, for Steve Trout, and then watched in horror as he melted from a winning pitcher for a last place team to a winless arm on a first-place team... that ultimately finished fourth. NY couldn't wait to dump him.

I think the impossibility to quantify is what frustrates so many otherwise rational people who watch and root for other people playing a game.

I know there are posters here who will argue forever against the very existence of the dreaded c-words in baseball and sports. Some of them even played the game past Little League. But if it's all a myth, how did an ex-player like Bob Tewksbury go back to college to become a Certified Mental Performance Consultant? Why do teams even have a job called Mental Skills Coach? How can The Center for Anxiety and Traumatic Stress Disorders and Complicated Grief at Massachusetts General Hospital conduct "state-of-the-art research aimed at improving the standard of care for people suffering from anxiety disorders"?

In a post-Mookie offseason with offers down across the industry, spending "large" has already been redefined. This is actually a winter where the Boston Resets can afford to stockpile talent that will help sustain future contention. That could include recruiting replacements in the batting order for guys like JD and Beni... instead of splurging a year from now on true big money stars in a resurgent post-vaccine free agency.

Outfield thoughts: leave Verdugo in right for at least the next four years; he's the cornerstone at a corner position (and Fenway's most difficult)... sign Rosario, who can mash, got MVP votes the past two years, and will improve the team on and off the field (Vaz is openly recruiting, and Cora already chose him once for Team PR)... add a cheap, good glove in center with a righty stick, probably Marisnick, preferably Pillar -- if he isn't bitter getting dealt last summer -- since Bloom recently noted Duran will open '21 in the minors... and finally... ... keep Benintendi. Scouts say his trade value is very limited, so don't give him away. Instead, give Andrew the opportunity to reinvent himself, win back a starting job, or platoon in left and center. Good teams need at least four decent outfielders (and JD Martinez is not one). I'd also like to welcome fifth outfielder/DH Marcell Ozuna. Chances are that one of Beni or JD won't quite rebound, someone will get injured, the late-inning defensive specialist will get cut, Duran will debut, and Cora will use everyone. The Red Sets can afford Rosario, Ozuna, a second baseman who can turn the DP, and four to six pitchers to become a playoff contender... especially with an impending new CBA and salary structure in an industry redefined by a pandemic.

Gray couldn't pitch in the Bronx for the home team. Something tells me the pressure may not get any better there wearing red stockings as a visitor. He's on my ixnay list with Tanaka, Paxton and Happ.

According to a Rays article, the Sox would only have to part with Verdugo, Casas and Houk to land Snell. I suspect it was written by a Tampa fan who cheers when Devers hits what would be a 500 foot bomb off the ceiling that the first baseman catches in foul territory.

What was I thinking -- inherited runners don't matter to relievers! He was arguably better than his two regular seasons in Boston and his 5.73 ERA!

Boston played eight more games after that and Francona never let him sniff the mound again. It's one of the reasons Boston played eight more games.

A busted wing may account for control issues and HBPs, but the guy pitched for years in postseasons and won multiple rings in NY. So there's no excuse for balking in a run with the pennant on the line (unless he was undercover or gamblers were holding his family hostage).

Post to Kevin Youkilis, Butch Hobson and George "Boomer" Scott... was that really necessary?

He gave up other pitchers' runs: to the first batter he faced he gave up a line drive RBI single... then vs. the next batter he balked in a run. His final batter (ever as a Red Sox pitcher) he hit with a pitch; that gave him a total in the '04 ALCS of two games, two IP, and two HBP. I don't know why I still hold a grudge.

One month after his trade to Boston, ARod slipped on the pinstripes; he went 2-for-17 in the final four games of the ALCS, wore blue lip gloss, and slapped Bronson's glove.

Arnold Rothstein is still sending checks to Ramiro Mendoza for his work as a double agent in Boston circa '03/04...

Fixing the holes where the rain gets in. But it won't stop our minds from wondering... Bloom's MO is to continually upgrade, but gradually... when I read that about him, I envisioned him replacing a guy with -1 WAR to 0 WAR, and then eventually packaging that guy into a deal where he nets a player worth 1 WAR. Put it this way, there's little chance he's ever involved in one-fell transformative swoop or orchestrates a 17-player trade like the Yanks and O's pulled off in 1954. There are always bound to be incremental changes, but waiting another five years for a Juan Soto trade (like Pete Abraham posed today) feels like half a decade from now.