5GoldGlovesOF,75
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Everything posted by 5GoldGlovesOF,75
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A Realistic View at 2023: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
For what it will cost for just one year of Verlander, we can probably distribute that over three years of Eovaldi. When comparing the two, maybe the biggest question isn't who will accrue the most WAR in the next three years, but who will make the most starts... -
WEEI.com headline: "Ken Rosenthal reports the Red Sox are ready to spend this offseason" Red Sox fan:"... doing what?" talksox prediction: "... poking around, kicking tires, showing lots of reported interest, making offers that can be refused, and swearing they're all in" (you can't say, "... raising prices"... already been done that)
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2023 Yankees off-season thread
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Other Baseball
And if he hits a grounder to the pitcher in the playoffs, they'll boo him. -
I have been in on all these guys -- for years, actually -- except Clevinger. And I didn't realize he's only 11 months younger than Nate! Especially after that haul Cleveland got for him, including Naylor, Quantrill and Hedges. From the Pads I prefer Manaea, but looking at Similar Pitchers on bb-ref, Sean's top comps are Marco Gonzalez, Greg Hibbard and Wei-Yin Chen.... Mike's are Severino, McCullers and Bassitt...
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Eovaldi's agent must have some reassurance that a club is willing to give him a Ty Anderson-type 3-year contract, plus a draft pick. Is Anderson a good Nate comp? Both will be 33 in '23... Here are bb-ref career 162-game averages: Anderson 10-10, 4.16, 33 starts, 189 IP N. Eovaldi 10-10, 4.16, 33 starts, 186 IP Looks like Ty can go longer...
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A Realistic View at 2023: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
You mean something like what the Rays' Evan Reifert did in the Arizona Fall League? He faced 40 batters and struck out 25. Is there such a thing as a small sample when it comes to throwing strikes? Reifert isn't even ranked among Tampa's top 30 prospects. -
Attention, all Billy beancounters and Rays wayward sons: the holiday Heaney Special can be found in the clear bin at the end of the pitching aisle... please don snorkels and swim goggles... do not stop at the green bin on the top shelf!
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A Realistic View at 2023: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
My prediction is that any Rule 5 guy that Bloom adds will be a reliever. Building bullpen depth with high velo arms is the easiest and cheapest way back to respectability. Mid-market spenders like Boston needn't splurge on relief specialists like the Mets, Padres and Astros recently did. There are plenty of unharnessed minor leaguers and bounce-back MLB candidates to collect. -
Bloom does a lot of poking around. He's particularly pokey in offseasons and trade deadlines. He may just be the pokiest chief baseball officer in baseball. Bloom is Pokey, and Dombrowski is Gumby... Dave sticks to all his club needs, his targets to acquire, and to the soles of his employers.
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Interest. No, wait: reported interest.
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Oh yeah? The Boston system had pitching death. In 2022, the Red Sox were bled by Paxton, Pitcher Who Didn't Pitch All Year, and Sale, Pitcher Who Disappeared, plus Diekman, Hit By Pitcher Of the Year, not to mention Robles, Pitcher In Arrears, and Houck, Canadian Bake Man.
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On a future internet article on the 2026 World Series, there was some debate about giving Raffy's hamstrings a break by DHing him. Red Sox GM Alex Cora and Manager Pedro Martinez finally compromised to just DH Devers in the road games in Montreal.
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Whoa, I can't wait til 2026! Four more years, four more years... Old man Devers will be turning 30 during the '26 World Series! That's like another 300 extra base hits from now.
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As a hopeful Red Sox fan, I hope you're right and they sign either Xander or Carlos. As a pragmatic cynical of the past three offseasons, I look at every possible free agent and trade target now and hear Chaim Bloom ringing in my ears: "It has to make sense..." If you really consider the latter, shouldn't a last place team be prudent and hang onto most of its resources while making incremental steps forward?
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Hugh, Kike is playing shortstop. He basically already admitted it, but said he hopes he's back in center, because that would mean X is still here. Bloom isn't getting out of Bogey's contract, only to reinvest it, and more, on one replacement player... especially with his #1 prospect due to take over at minimum wage in another year or so.
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Hey, man, this isn't the Dan Duquette Era -- we don't sign any prime timers without injured histories. While we're at it -- Sox fans in the 2020s -- let's trade Verdugo for a Choi-like return (Double A reliever) and go with this trio: Brantley-Keirmaier-Haniger. Btw, I'd also add Abreu as DH/back-up 1B. Would these moves to replace Bogey, JD and Doogie make the Red Sox any better? Maybe not, but the front office can spin the change-as-improvement in the charge out of the basement in seek of a wild card.
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The M's already made some moves, by locking up their solid starting rotation for at least the next three years. Seattle has five pitchers who made 25 or more starts in 2022. Boston had two (one was in his 40s). Best AL clubs in Runs Allowed per Game for 2022: Astros, Yanks, Rays, M's, Guards -- all playoff teams. The Red Sox were second-worst to KC.
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Would this be acceptable? Red Sox '23 OF: Haniger-Kiermaier-Verdugo; with Kike at short (really don't want to see Story there, for several reasons...)
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He's a proven winner in Boston, a guy who consistently beats the Yankees, and who still wants to be a Red Sox. All those are factors that matter, that none of the other free agent pitchers possess. If Eovaldi re-signs, I will give credit to Bloom and Co.
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Of course this is my entire point about investing in Devers -- and not Judge -- going forward.
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I'm starting to temper my offseason expectations -- which admittedly have conflicted with every winter of the Bloom Era compared to the early free-spending (can we say more desperate) days of the Epstein Era. Maybe shooting for third place and a shot at a wild card run isn't such a bad strategy. The team will have to be "way better" to make the postseason. I'm just skeptical about the new balanced schedule; sure, the Sox won't have to play so many AL East games, but neither will NY, Tor, Tampa and Balt -- who all could still finish ahead of an 87-win Phillies' type contender. Other clubs may be thinking the same -- all the big signings so far have been relievers, and we know bullpens now rule the postseason. The Red Sox may be stockpiling a rotation of #3 starters to get them through the regular season -- and yes, to keep costs down -- with an eye toward finding/developing/preserving power arm bullpen match-ups for later on...
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You got me. Judge just had a career year and his career batting average is now .284, one entire point better than Devers' career .283. As for predictions, you got me again. The only thing you know for sure is that you never know. And that one player is now in his 30s, while the other is in his 20s. We can try to base opinions on facts. In the past four seasons, Judge has 211 extra base hits. Devers has 264 -- the most in the majors.
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You should be scared -- as most of us are... but not because of Nate. The last place Red Sox starting rotation is a sham in shambles. Eovaldi may not ever be healthy through an entire season again, but right now he is a better bet to pitch and pitch well for 2023 than two young guys who just had surgery and two old guys who are always hurt. He's also younger than deGrom, Bassitt, Kershaw and Verlander. This morning I read reports that Boston is looking to add another starter, but only "a #2 or #3" guy. Why are the Sox unwilling to pay for a #1 like Rodon? We know it's not because they can't afford it. Is it because there are just too many other holes to fill on the roster? Can a staff of #3 starters lift you to third place? If you're a cellar-dweller vowing to be way better, isn't third place way better?
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That's where I'm at. He's only led all of baseball in extra base hits since he became a full-timer four years ago -- and it's not even close. He's 26.
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I can be serious if I expect Judge to be damaged goods for about half of the next decade -- because he was half the time in the last half decade.
