5GoldGlovesOF,75

There's gotta be some analysis done in somebody's R&D dept. on this. Pitchers are bigger, stronger, faster, and thus more injury-prone? Where is the data when over-training superseded over-throwing (in the days of complete games... or Japan)? Or is it something in modern cow's milk that builds muscle and makes tendons and ligaments brittle at the same time? Should any human drink the milk of another animal... or only their mother's milk when infants -- like every other creature on the planet?

Imagine you've just been promoted and got a huge raise, entrusted with spending the company budget to improve production and increase stock value. But instead of investing on recruits who are tried and true in the industry, you take a big chunk of the funds to the race track... to bet on the favorite, granted (almost a sure thing, according to odds' makers). That kind of stunt may be tolerated by ownership after you've made them kajillions more by boosting the brand... but first move?

Sunday morning COLDstove in RSNation blabs: Brez and the rez may disagree. Isn't it folly for a first-year CBO to gamble so much on one guy so MLB-unproven? For what it will ultimately cost to bet on Yo Yama, wouldn't it make more sense in a rebuild to use the same amount to sign two other established big league starters? Or will going all in on this winter's big mound prize be looked upon as bold... ... even though the bold moves most hinted at in Breslow's early pressers were more connected to trading prospects or feng shooing the front office...

Just wondering, now that two relievers are in charge of fixing the pitching: if the Sox get outbid on the top handful of free agent starters, if they would pivot to stockpiling a power bullpen as an option. Instead of breaking the bank for Hader, Brez could probably sign two other guys who throw over 100 mph -- Hicks and Fujinami -- plus, add a recent Bailey pupil in Manaea as swingman.

Rafaela and Abreu will be graduates. Bleis will jump the most in '24 and make the majors in '25. He's still the Sox' 5-tool prospect, but slightly forgotten because of injury and Anthony's ascension. The latter, along with Teel and Mayer, will all get MLB tastes next season; maybe not a cup of coffee, but at least shots of expresso by September. Also, if Breslow somehow restructures Boston into contention, don't be surprised if an arm or two gets called up for the stretch run: Gonzalez or Monegro (if they dominate the minors), but more likely a Guerrero or Fernandez (if they're still in the org and not dealt). Most likely to move up fast on the farm are NazzanZ or Anderson, but the star could be Cespedes. Pure hitter who may force a big league promotion: Hickey. I don't know enough about Castro; never seen him play. Someone please elaborate...

With how hard pitching is to secure, project and develop, why aren't there more cases of these best-player-availables being converted from shortstop to the mound? They all have cannons, and already can presumably hit the vicinity of a first baseman's mitt from deep in the hole... Holy crap -- Frankie Rodriquez is 50! Wasn't he just on the cover of a baseball card prospect mag? There's gotta be some smart CBO somewhere -- say, an ex-MLB pitcher whose specialty is revamping pitching R & D for an entire system -- that Boston can hire to do this faster than you can say Javy Guerra.

As usual, my post -- like just about anyone's -- isn't all-inclusive to make a point that can't be picked apart with a specific stat by another poster always in the mood to argue. I know this has been rehashed plenty of times before -- some have even pointed out that Houston rebuilt with top picks, but not so much #1 overalls wasted on two pitching busts... but later first-rounders like Bregman and Springer. But it's hot stove with no real Red Sox news so far. I was merely commenting about one aspect on the vagaries of baseball's amateur draft, and how even the highest of high picks is no sure thing -- especially when it comes to choosing a guy who looks like the best future pitching star each year. Skenes is the latest, just like Leiter was automatic a few years ago (Jack must have won a few Cys by now...). Nothing is guaranteed, but perhaps we can at least agree that of all the major sports, the baseball draft is the most dubious, as far as the top of the first round altering a franchise.

All those departments full of scouts, analysts and developmental cases -- and only two sure things (sorry, Harold). That's more of a crapshoot than postseasons in the Wild Card Era. There have to be more than three wild cards who've won the World Series, right? Of the top of my concussed cranium, I've got the crappy '04 Sox, '19 Nats and Eovaldi's Rangers...

In the entire history of the draft, 1965-current, there have been exactly three #1 overall picks to make the Hall of Fame: Baines, Junior and Chipper. That's in over half-a-century. Harper will be there someday. Zero pitchers drafted first overall are in Cooperstown. Cole leads all #1 pitchers with 41.2 WAR, followed by Price 40.3, Strasburg 32.3, Benes 31.5, Moore 27.9, Belcher 26, McDonald 20.8. Grim pickings...

We didn't have an ace, king, queen or jack in the rotation for most of last year. Bloom dealt Cora a couple of 10s (1 yr/$10M), but when they tried to double down, the whole table busted. That made a lot of us yak...

Final thought on pitcher wins... or is that team wins in relation to specific pitchers: I have to agree with Old Red that the order of rotations do matter, at least from series to series. All wins may count the same in the standings, but there is a reason teams sometimes line up their best pitcher to face another club's ace -- because they feel that gives them their best chance for victory... and if it's head-to-head vs. a division rival, we know that might count even more (at the risk of reopening another old controversy). Plus, if it's a playoff series, we all know every team wants to open with a Game One W... and ideally also have their best available again for a clincher or to stave off elimination later on.

Ohka and Oka J were fine.

Well, the old Boston needed a closer to end road games, when most fans still hanging around in the 9th were Red Sox fans (except in the Bronx, where they're rabid zombies). But lately, fickle Fenway has been invaded by tour buses of opposing fans on road trips. So to counter all that negativity, the Sox have had less closing situations the past few years.

I told them to lock up Imanaga the day he posts... and hire Koji as a bullpen coach... and DiceK as a gyropopcorn vendor.

Agreed. But he only plays short when he's not pitching, and always bats clean-up. He's also the quarterback, point guard and first-line center -- if he plays hockey... and always dates the prom queen (which usually doesn't last, with so many underclasswomen to choose from). But that doesn't mean Bichette at 25 can't thrive at a less-demanding position; he's not Hanley in his 30s clunking around out there waiting to become a fulltime DH.

... or one of Bloom's 75 high school draft picks...

... is it really impossible to imagine that they might think their magic is better in the 9th -- when cheering fans are on their feet, anticipating the almighty save (SAVES = $$$), with the game-ending, fist-pumping adrenaline/RedBull/BlackBeauty rush of happy teammates swarming the mound in celebratory climax?

If Bichette is available, the Jays must be finally admitting they'll never win with him at shortstop (TV fans of the Sox and Yankees have realized this the past few years -- Bichette is Kike without the green shoes. Heave ho...). But Bo knows batting -- AL leader in hits and BA the past three seasons. At 25, he could be Boston's elite righty bat for the next half decade. I'm told someone who dabbles at SS could play anywhere -- so Bo and the Monstah can be good friends when he becomes Fenway's permanent leftfielder.

Teammates, opponents, managers, coaches, scouts (and even awards voters) value statistics, but they also value qualitative data about players, managers, coaches and prospects. That's not a myth and no quantitative data can ever prove it is.

Nope, the Jays never had a big lead in any of those games.

Or Bob Welch winning the 1990 Cy with a 27-6 record. Roger Clemens only won 21, but led all baseball players with a 10.4 WAR (Welch didn't even make the pitcher Top 10). Clemens also led in Adjusted Pitching WINS, WIN Probability Added, Sit. WINS Saved, Championship WPA, Base-Out Wins Saved, Base-Out Runs Saved, ADJ Pitching Runs, ERA, ADJ ERA, K/BB, HR/9, FIP and shutouts (tied). And don't forget Ninja pony-tails!

The whole point with guys like Morris is we can never know the full picture. Fans or reporters can look at stats, but those only show so much. ERA meant nothing to Morris, who would gladly pitch to contact with a big lead to preserve his energy, stay in the game -- and most importantly -- spare the arms of his teammates in the bullpen for games when they were really needed. But since WINS is the topic of the week, look again at Morris' last good year in 1992: 21-6, 4.04... led the AL in Ws, with a below-average ERA (league avg. for 180 IP was 3.96). Was he lucky he pitched on the champs or were they lucky he led them to first place? Morris was lousy in the postseason, and basically ineffective for two more years... ... when his club kept running him out there... because of his rep or legacy? Like the Sox did with Smoltz or (ugh) Kluber?

We are a long way from Game Seven of the 1991 World Series, when John Smoltz was lifted in the 8th inning after allowing zero runs, and opponent Jack Morris went 10 shutout frames to win the ring. Ask any player, manager or coach if they know or have known certain pitchers who have what it takes inside to nail down a big W. There may be no stat then or now that can quantify such a confidence factor... but what we do know today is that analytics can contradict and change history. Better prepare for the Blake Snell Show now... just remember his gem in Game Six of the 2020 World Series: one out and a 1-0 lead in the 6th, he gave up a single and was yanked with the top of the order due up -- Betts, Seager, Turner -- who Snell had struck out in all six previous at bats. The Rays lost the game and the Series, and somehow their management brags it would do it again, over and over. Maybe the new Sox braintrust will handle a guy like Snell differently... after all, Kevin Cash is a catcher, while Breslow and Bailey are pitchers; you know, guys that want the ball and would never want to come out with the game on the line.

Love this dispute. I value WINS - at least for starters before the age of openers and bulk men... there was a time when pitchers were expected to finish what they started, so their overall stats may have, shall we say, suffered the last time through the batting order. But did they really care, as long as they nailed down the W? Jack Morris didn't... Some hate that Jack Morris is in the Hall of Fame. But Morris was the best pitcher on a very good team in the entire decade of the 1980s; his Tigers had the second-best win total to the Yankees (who didn't win anything). Morris led the 80s in wins, but also Games Started, Complete Games and Innings Pitched. He also led in Hits, Runs, and HRs -- and didn't give a crap, because his team gave him lots of leads, and he opted to pitch to contact to save his arm. You may also know he got it done when it mattered: 7-1 in 9 postseason starts with two rings (before his arm went dead his last year at age 37). Was Morris just lucky he played on great teams... or were teams great because Morris was their ace? As a contrast, I offer Nolan Ryan from 1987: led the NL in ERA, Ks, H/9, K/9, K/BB, FIP, and had a W-L record of 8 wins and 16 losses. Ryan finished 5th in Cy Young voting that year, but was also 5th in WAR for pitchers. In fact, through the 1980s, Ryan earned 30.4 WAR... Morris earned 30.3 WAR (both were far behind 80's leader Dave Stieb's 48.1 WAR). Neither Ryan nor Morris ever won a Cy... but both are in Cooperstown.

Montgomery would even be the #2 Jordan on the White Sox minor league team once managed by Terry Francona!