5GoldGlovesOF,75

If Bichette is available, the Jays must be finally admitting they'll never win with him at shortstop (TV fans of the Sox and Yankees have realized this the past few years -- Bichette is Kike without the green shoes. Heave ho...). But Bo knows batting -- AL leader in hits and BA the past three seasons. At 25, he could be Boston's elite righty bat for the next half decade. I'm told someone who dabbles at SS could play anywhere -- so Bo and the Monstah can be good friends when he becomes Fenway's permanent leftfielder.

Teammates, opponents, managers, coaches, scouts (and even awards voters) value statistics, but they also value qualitative data about players, managers, coaches and prospects. That's not a myth and no quantitative data can ever prove it is.

Nope, the Jays never had a big lead in any of those games.

Or Bob Welch winning the 1990 Cy with a 27-6 record. Roger Clemens only won 21, but led all baseball players with a 10.4 WAR (Welch didn't even make the pitcher Top 10). Clemens also led in Adjusted Pitching WINS, WIN Probability Added, Sit. WINS Saved, Championship WPA, Base-Out Wins Saved, Base-Out Runs Saved, ADJ Pitching Runs, ERA, ADJ ERA, K/BB, HR/9, FIP and shutouts (tied). And don't forget Ninja pony-tails!

The whole point with guys like Morris is we can never know the full picture. Fans or reporters can look at stats, but those only show so much. ERA meant nothing to Morris, who would gladly pitch to contact with a big lead to preserve his energy, stay in the game -- and most importantly -- spare the arms of his teammates in the bullpen for games when they were really needed. But since WINS is the topic of the week, look again at Morris' last good year in 1992: 21-6, 4.04... led the AL in Ws, with a below-average ERA (league avg. for 180 IP was 3.96). Was he lucky he pitched on the champs or were they lucky he led them to first place? Morris was lousy in the postseason, and basically ineffective for two more years... ... when his club kept running him out there... because of his rep or legacy? Like the Sox did with Smoltz or (ugh) Kluber?

We are a long way from Game Seven of the 1991 World Series, when John Smoltz was lifted in the 8th inning after allowing zero runs, and opponent Jack Morris went 10 shutout frames to win the ring. Ask any player, manager or coach if they know or have known certain pitchers who have what it takes inside to nail down a big W. There may be no stat then or now that can quantify such a confidence factor... but what we do know today is that analytics can contradict and change history. Better prepare for the Blake Snell Show now... just remember his gem in Game Six of the 2020 World Series: one out and a 1-0 lead in the 6th, he gave up a single and was yanked with the top of the order due up -- Betts, Seager, Turner -- who Snell had struck out in all six previous at bats. The Rays lost the game and the Series, and somehow their management brags it would do it again, over and over. Maybe the new Sox braintrust will handle a guy like Snell differently... after all, Kevin Cash is a catcher, while Breslow and Bailey are pitchers; you know, guys that want the ball and would never want to come out with the game on the line.

Love this dispute. I value WINS - at least for starters before the age of openers and bulk men... there was a time when pitchers were expected to finish what they started, so their overall stats may have, shall we say, suffered the last time through the batting order. But did they really care, as long as they nailed down the W? Jack Morris didn't... Some hate that Jack Morris is in the Hall of Fame. But Morris was the best pitcher on a very good team in the entire decade of the 1980s; his Tigers had the second-best win total to the Yankees (who didn't win anything). Morris led the 80s in wins, but also Games Started, Complete Games and Innings Pitched. He also led in Hits, Runs, and HRs -- and didn't give a crap, because his team gave him lots of leads, and he opted to pitch to contact to save his arm. You may also know he got it done when it mattered: 7-1 in 9 postseason starts with two rings (before his arm went dead his last year at age 37). Was Morris just lucky he played on great teams... or were teams great because Morris was their ace? As a contrast, I offer Nolan Ryan from 1987: led the NL in ERA, Ks, H/9, K/9, K/BB, FIP, and had a W-L record of 8 wins and 16 losses. Ryan finished 5th in Cy Young voting that year, but was also 5th in WAR for pitchers. In fact, through the 1980s, Ryan earned 30.4 WAR... Morris earned 30.3 WAR (both were far behind 80's leader Dave Stieb's 48.1 WAR). Neither Ryan nor Morris ever won a Cy... but both are in Cooperstown.

Montgomery would even be the #2 Jordan on the White Sox minor league team once managed by Terry Francona!

Or not maybe: he was THE #2 on a World Series champion this month.

He can't even pitch. Meanwhile, Mad Dog Russo says stay away from Hader, because he refused to pitch the 8th inning of a big game in September. If only the posters who were never closers could invite him and Kimbrel and Papelbon to a thread to show stats that say there's no difference what inning they pitch or whether their teams are ahead, tied or behind. They just need the right statistical state of mind. Or to schedule their nightly amphetamines one inning later (the players -- I'm talking about the players)...

For pitchers who have started less than 90 games the past three years, Lance Lynn led the majors in home runs allowed (81 HRs in 81 GS). The only guys taken deep more are Lyles, Corbin and Giolito (who doesn't pitch half his games in Fenway; hope he never does). Others close to Lynn: Cole, Nola and Taillon - 77 bombs each. Pivetta just missed the top 10, serving up 74.

If he signs in Boston for 5/100 and turns out to be just like Eovaldi -- wins a World Series every five years -- I think Sox fans would be ok with that.

I think Anthony is going to be a lefty Tony Conigliaro, who became the youngest American Leaguer to hit 100 home runs (104 by age 22, before his career was altered by beaning in '67). Actually, the AL record for most HRs by a left-handed batter through age 22 is still held by Ted Williams, with 91...

It remains to be seen if Breslow will go all out to sign Yamamoto. We do know employees in the org he hasn't fired yet have been scouting this pitcher for awhile. We also know Bloom would sign him for sure, if only because in the last three Japan seasons, Yamamoto won the Sawamura Award!

Glad you're reassessing. What is the Windy City word on why Dylan ceased to be as good in '23? And no way someone so much smarter than me like Breslow will giveaway the one guy in the Red Sox entire organization described as a 5-tool player, especially to another GM trying to out-clever him by buying low on a rehabbing future star. Brez really doesn't want to known as the Bloom replacement whose first big deal was trading the next Mookie... The current Red Sox suck. While maybe not a bottom-five team in the majors, they're just blah -- mediocre in so many areas. Teel and Mayer may be keys to solidifying future relevancy, but Bleis could be the guy to electrify the fanbase.

Breslow just read your post and is making a list of the longtime execs who have been twiddling their thumbs trying to grip stitches on pitches he vows to reshape... ... after he reshapes the damn front office!

Before I'd even consider it, I need to know why Cease's ERA jumped almost 2 1/2 runs per game and why he had the worst WHIP in the American League last year.

Wasn't that the same year Story was extremely good at second base? Hmmm... If Mayer isn't traded as part of a package for Burnes and Adames, it would seem easier for Story and his artificial elbow to just supplant himself at 2B now, with Kim the swingman (when Marcelo's time comes).

What's the formula for WAR per million? Darvish is 37, joined MLB at 25, and has 31 WAR. According to bb-ref, Darvish has made $167M to date... can we agree he's earned that? If so, does that mean Yamamoto would need close to 60 WAR to justify, say, a $330M contract (cost of living adjustments included for the next decade)?

Of course not. DD gave him the 7 so he'd be around next year, at least.

He's injury-prone, so he must pitch for a living. All he can do is win a World Series, every five years. Gruntled fans will be quick to point at those banners every time they see them flying, at least until eternity...

But rationally (watch, this has double meaning), don't most teams secretly accept that the total contract amount over a 7-year deal is effectively paying for only the first 4 or 5, at best? The modern lack of a back-end really ups the front-end AAV then... So Nola's 7-year AAV of $24.6M is probably worth $34.4M to the Phils if he's good for the first 5 -- though they're really hoping they're not paying him $43M for just 4.

I could be misremembering, but weren't the late trips to the IL in '17 and '18 (that maybe cost him Cy Youngs), both shoulder-related?

There's more than that today that could fully throttle the Red Sox next year...

And now good 'ol Dombro just locked up Nola for another lucky seven... ... did anyone here really think Philly would allow Aaron to test the market, if Dave thought he was still really good?