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Hugh2

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Everything posted by Hugh2

  1. Hugh2
    Actually it's very easy to predict how it will turn out. He pitches like an ACE, top 5 Cy Young and his price tag doubles. Or he falls off a cliff, gets injured. In which case the price tag either significantly drops, or more likely he decides to go to FA and use the last year to rebuild his value again.
  2. Hugh2
    Which is something inbetween In my very next post I said "Ideally in an extension you're overpaying for a guy during the arb years, especially pre-arb years (which doesn't apply here) but you're saving money in later years."
  3. Hugh2
    By all accounts Crochet wants to sign an extension. He wanted an extension signed for any team that traded for him last year, he's open to one this year and I'm sure the Sox traded for him with it in mind he wants an extension. Highly supported by the fact that the Sox and him are talking. Now will the Sox eff this up???? IDK maybe.
  4. Hugh2
    I don't believe I ever suggested that isn't the case. I think that's the whole point. An extension now should be more money than he'd get under team control but a little less than what he'd get in FA right now. Hypothetically that's how an extension should work, I don't think a guy getting overpaid throws the whole system out of whack, it just means the Sox made a questionable move last year.
  5. Hugh2
    I would normally agree, but how often do premium free agents who are 30 years old sign for more than 5 years? in the absence of injury these guys usually get 6+ Exceptions apply, and I'd love him here on a 3-4 years deal, and perhaps his market has collapsed and such a deal exists. But 5 years for Bregman would be very reasonable.
  6. Hugh2
    I really don't disagree with anything you guys are saying, my oc was more geared to the point OR made earlier. Ideally in an extension you're overpaying for a guy during the arb years, especially pre-arb years (which doesn't apply here) but you're saving money in later years. Given the Sox payroll status, and seemingly staying under this year, it's 100% logical and the right move to make to use that cap space THIS year for extensions. You can make them, stay under the cap and possibly be in a better position 3-5 years down the line because of this.
  7. Hugh2
    I'm not Stephen effing Hawking man, I don't have a theory of everything that makes everything make sense; teams still make stupid moves, they apparently really believe in Rafaela. Regardless, that doesn't beget the point that pre free agency extensions are for the purpose of locking guys up while they're younger and trying to save money in the long term.
  8. Hugh2
    The whole basis of any pre free agency extension is you’re paying much less than you would for comparative value in free agency. so asking the question of what a guy would get if he’s a free agent not is 100% relevant. you also don’t trade guys like Teel and Montgomery and not extend a guy. Teams who make trades like that typically do with extension in mind. if the Sox wait a year the price tag could come close to doubling. Should of just held onto Jordan Montgomery and the catcher of the future and signed a free agent pitcher at this point. if you want elite talent on your team, you’re going to have to take a risk somewhere. Not extending guys and paying 2x 3x the cost in free agency for older players is its own kind of risk.
  9. Hugh2
    I bet they'd win 78 games last year, so I have a history of under estimating them.
  10. Hugh2
    $2.00
  11. Hugh2
    90 wins....book it
  12. Hugh2
    Yes but they CAN'T get a pick for Bregman next year. So you're still losing a pick for him, not ideal if you're signing a guy for 1 year.
  13. Hugh2
    For 6 years of Teel, and 6 years of Montgomery+ for just 4 years total of Crochett. You gotta swing somewhere. Trades, extensions, bringing up rookies, signing free agents. If you don't want to take a risk anywhere eventually we will be the passive hitter who watches every pitch go by.
  14. Hugh2
    Players can't be offered Q.O.'s if they've already received one. Bregman received one this year. So you'd be giving up a pick to sign him for just one year.
  15. Hugh2
  16. Hugh2
    LAD also brought their two largest commitments BACK to market. That strongly suggest they're very very much in this.
  17. Hugh2
    I highly doubt that, he put up 4.1 War last year, it wasn't really a down year besides a dip in the BB% I don't think there's much of an incentive to how much his value will go up with a monster year next year vs. being 1 year older. He could have a good year next year, but I think putting up 7-8 WAR seasons is behind him. It is more likely that he losses money by waiting a year. He also strikes me as the kind of guy that just wants to get paid and go play somewhere, he wants to get paid but I suspect whoever is the highest bidder this year will be enough for him to take the long term deal.
  18. Hugh2
    Sasaki to either LAD or SDP seems like a forgone conclusion at this point. With spring training coming up on us fast, we should expect to hear something on Scott/Bregman/Arenado and others soon enough. I get the sense the Sox are waiting for the price to come down on Bregman, as Detroit is not signing him either I wonder if Bregman prefers Boston but is waiting on the Tigers to up their offer. If they bite, and Bregman is gone I think the Sox pivot to Arenado. Honestly, as much as we need a RHB, I'd be content if they just sign Scott but I'm most certainly prefer Bregman over Arenado at this point.
  19. Hugh2
    Fair, I was just saying they both make them incomparable.
  20. Hugh2
    Glasnow was also extended at 30 years old with one year of team control left, while Crochet will be extended at 26 years old with 2 years of team control left. It's not apples to apples.
  21. Hugh2
    You know it's funny, I find the statement that there's truth in numbers and crowds are idiots both somehow tend to be true. I remember one time reading a book on probability that talked about test in which they took the average of "guess how many pennies are in the penny jar" from schools all across America. What they found, is by large that the average of everyone's guesses was almost always closer to the exact number than any individual guess. I've actually tried this in my mind trying to predict some FA signings in the past and it's bared some fruit. Point is. If that logic were to hold true here, Crochet is probably going to get an extension in years between 5-8 million in the $25-$28 AAV range. I understand that the aggregate of a dozen or so posters isn't probably anywhere close to an appropriate sample size yet that range still feels right.
  22. Hugh2
    It only has to be good enough to make him happy enough to get some money today rather than risk all the bad things that can happen in two years. If the offer isn’t tantalizing enough then he will just wait and have 29 other teams negotiating with him.
  23. Hugh2
    Spencer Striders extension bought out 5 years of team control vs 2. That’s a HUGE difference. also, with baseball inflation around 10% the last several years signing that today would be like getting a $90 million extension. That buys out 5 years of control. Sox are only buying out 2 here. you don’t want to go big on free agency, that’s a risk you’re unwilling to take, well this is what you do if you actually want elite pitching talent on your team.
  24. Hugh2
    I don’t think $170 is insane, depending on the years. I threw my hat in the ring with $160/6
  25. Hugh2
    Crochet certainly is unique and gifted, but Yamamoto had 30 teams bidding on him because he was a free agent. Free agents don’t make good comps for extensions.
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