Hugh2

I asked a question about this on the Soxprospects forum. They deduced that Mata was very likely the guy the Red Sox turned down in the Sale trade. Here is a response I got from Chris Hatfield: "So, a) His scouting report has been updated. Ian saw him at Instructs and came back very impressed. He put him in his top 30 right away and convinced us to push him up past where he sat after we all voted. Then, after the trades, Dave Dombrowski was on WEEI talking about them and the process. He referred to a player in the process that another team asked for who was 1. Venezuelan, 2. had played in the DSL, and 3. had pitched at Fall Instructs, and the Red Sox had refused to trade him. Presuming that these were the negotiations for either the Thornburg or Sale trade, that means that they at least liked this player more than Victor Diaz (21 before the trade) or Josh Pennington (27 before the trade). The only two players who fit the description Dombrowski gave were Mata and Ritzi Mendoza. Now, Mendoza also had a very good year in the DSL... but he was 21 and repeating the league for the fourth time. So there's a 99% chance they refused to include Mata in a deal in which they did trade a player we had ranked higher. Between Ian's report on him (which I'll let you all read), the numbers and other reports we've read, and the Dombrowski thing, it seemed pretty clear we had to move him into the Top 20." It seems to me very little is still known from him but he had good numbers in the DSL, he impressed at fall instructs, and we can deduce from the Sox front office that they really really like him.

He ain't slow that's for sure! but JBJ is no blazer either. What puts him over the top is his instincts on the base paths, sometimes that's worth just as much if not more than speed.

Last years draft was all about Groome, the other high ceiling picks didn't sign. Dalbec had a nice start and I hope he turns into a diamond in the rough. This is a guy who struck out 32% of the time in college, he's got a TON of swing and miss in his swing and had a good year against lesser competition in Lowell. Word on the street was the Sox liked him better as a pitcher but he really wanted to play 3rd base. It's a lot easier to switch to pitching from hitting than the other way around so why not let him hit and see what he can do. I'm not trying to take anything away from him. And I'm hoping he proves people wrong but I'd take his first season with a huge grain of salt. Guys who hit for power but have a big hole in their swing in the lower minors have 100 times more ways to fail than to succeed on their way to the majors. The guys I really wanted after Groome were Nick Quintana, and Jeff Belge. After Groome, we probably have a future reliever or two and thats it. Chatham could develop but he's probably more likely a utility role. In hindsight, a lot of the high upside picks like Quintana were guys they had no chance in signing but would make a run at with some more money if Groome failed to sign. the 2015 draft is really a one man show.

Sox aren't fast tracking Devers. Every prospect is different, and Devers really seems like a year a level kind of guy. Guys can always force a teams hand, but I think Devers would have to play really really really really well to do that. As I said earlier, if 3rd base turns into a mess this year I'd wager on the Sox trading for a stop gap.

I'll believe that. How often does the assistant manager do all the work the manager takes credit for? How many CFOs are the byproduct of their controllers work? Charrington was likely highly involved if not more at times of many of the moves in the Epstein era. I have no doubt Ben was trigger shy to make the types of trades that DD has made that very well may lead to much better success the next four years but I don't think DD could have done much better during the crap era. If DD gutted the farm two years sooner we wouldn't have this young core he's building around.

True, Devers and Groome are still blue chippers with clear paths to the majors. And the next prospect Binky is always on some horizon. The new far off high upside guy I'll be following is bryan matta.

Ok, fair enough but I do think that.

And people make dumb decisions when they are desperate

You can be against gutting the farm but like a trade. Some of us are at the very least curious about the farm going forward when you weigh the totality of all trades. A trade can stand alone. We can like the team to focus on building within, but appreciate the need to pull the trigger on an opportunity to bring in top notch talent. We don't have to be homers and just automatically like every trade. We reserve the right to like some and hate other trades.

We finally got our Binky. There was always that guy people wanted in the team but it just didn't seem realistic. King Felix, Stanton, but we actually got Sale....it happened.

My thoughts exactly. Who knows how many reps or sets he's doing, how much rest he's getting or whether he's super setting etc etc etc. Whatever he's doing it's working.

Benintendi is also almost 2.5 years older than Devers. Benintendi I believed turned 22 while in Portland while Devers will be 20 all year there. Also Benintendi had some exposure to high competition in college. He was much more polished than Devers. Moncada was also a freak prospect, with freak athleticism that the Sox thought could help them in some capacity even if it was just his speed. He was obviously rushed. Now, I'm not saint and I've been wrong before, but if the 3B situation isn't working out in Boston I suspect they will look to make a trade before they rush Devers. Devers is very young, and he's notoriously a slow starter. He's consistently taken time to adjust at every level, but he always has as well. I have very high optimism that he's going to be a star one day but he doesn't strike me as the next 20 year old in Boston. If he gets his cup of coffee at the end of 2018 he'll still of reached the majors by 21 which will be well below the average age of a MLB debut. I think we've been spoiled with a recent wave of young studs that make us hope they all can fly through the system. If I'm wrong, and I am often, I'll be the happiest guy on the board next year.

EE is not walking through the doors, we should move on. For the most part, I think this team is set for next year. DD might try to shed some salary if he finds a buyer for Clay, and I think he will make some moves to strengthen the depth of the rotation. But I think DD is done, at least with any major moves.

My biggest concern with the drafts going forward is the hard cap on bonus pools. 2011 and prior you could pretty much spend whatever you wanted, so when a high school prospect with talent drops due to sign-ability or other various reasons it was easy for teams like the Red Sox to throw money at them in the later rounds. That system was still a crap shoot, but it will be even more so now after the first couple rounds. Also, if you were to go back just a few more years you'd see another great draft in 2005. We also selected Pedroia in 2004 and Paps in 03.

You know....I really thought it was. You just never know nowadays.

I think Quintana would look more like Groome/Devers/Dalbec/Mata

All drafts look good the day after. The only high end prospect I see is Groome, besides that there are few guys who have potential in the bullpen but HEY if you develop a good reliever nowadays thats a big deal. One of those guys could refill your system one day. Dalbec is a wildcard, he kind of reminds me of Kyri Washington but with potentially more value due to college experience and the possibility of moving to the mound. He could really add value to the system if he moves up the ranks and performs but he's so many levels to go and with the amount of swing an miss in his game there are many more paths to not making it than there are to making it for him. Chatham was the #1 SS college prospect in a year that was very weak at that position. It would be really nice if he could exceed expectations, because we could lose Bogaerts in 3 years. Best time to analyze a draft is 10 years later.

You have to give it to Porcello. This will be his 3rd year on your team and he's coming off of a CY Young campaign. If Sale is truly the ace of your staff it doesn't take much to move him to the #1 spot throughout the course of the season which is what I expect to happen.

I suspect Devers will spend most of the year in AA. I can see a late season call up to AAA if he performs well but he's very young and has been a level a year guy to date.

I think thats a pretty fair comp, If he develops into his ceiling the same way JBJ did then I could see him putting up numbers similar to B.J. when he was in his prime. B.J. developed a little later though, lets hope it doesn't take Swihart 5 years to figure it out.

The top two is about as strong as any team in the bigs and definitely better than most. Are there a few teams I'd put above them that you have showed examples of???? yes.

The top 2 of our system would still stack up with any systems top two with Devers and Groome, but there is a HUGE drop off after that. I also think Devers is the type of prospect who spends all year in Portland. I think he may be in line for a cup of coffee mid 2018, and fighting for a starting position in 2019

I think the new CBA is extremely small market team friendly. High market teams like NY, Boston, and LA got a s*** deal.

If I was a betting man I'd bet he's the starting catcher by June. I mean....I wouldn't bet the bank on it, but I'd bet a few pennies if you will.

Do we stress too much? I hate that narrative, not that I hate you I like you but I hate that narrative. We all cheer and root for our team in different ways, a farm system is important to me and how we handle it and fill it matters. I'm not losing any sleep over the depletion of the Sox farm system but as a fan who cares about today, tomorrow and next year I do find concern in how the replenish the system. If for nothing else, at least it's a talking about and a relevant one at that. I will find it very fascinating how the Sox handle that over the next 5 years. Perhaps they do find a way to stock the system and get ahead of the curve? maybe they have better scouts coming up through the system, maybe they are able to make some trades to replenish the system, maybe they hit a the lottery and strike gold in the later round? Just because we show concern doesn't mean we see it impossible rather it's something some of us care to talk about. The way the CBA has changed over the years and recently has taken away pretty much every avenue the sox have traveled over the years. Now we can sit here all day and have a pissing contest about how relevant that is but if it doesn't concern some people that's fine....it concerns me and it concerns moon and I'm sure others are as well. But as I said earlier, I doubt we are losing any sleep over it and I'm sure I'll be rocking a Sale jersey at some point next year.