Hugh2

Evan Drellich ‏@EvanDrellich 19m19 minutes ago Source: Red Sox No. 12 overall pick Jason Groome is in Boston to take his physical. Deal close but not finalized.

I literally just came in here to post this. Now I know some guns have been known to be off, but never by more than 5 MPH and it was confirmed that 105 was registered on multiple guns. They are now saying last night Kopech threw one of the fastest pitches ever recorded.

Alex Speier ‏@alexspeier 39m39 minutes ago As reported elsewhere (first by @KendallRogersD1), Red Sox close to finalizing deal w/5th rd RHP Mike Shawaryn. Alex Speier ‏@alexspeier 37m37 minutes ago Sources still expect a deal between the Red Sox and 1st round LHP Jason Groome, though at this point no final deal in place.

Kendall Rogers ‏@KendallRogersD1 11h11 hours ago .@TerpsBaseball RHP Mike Shawaryn, a fifth-round pick to the @RedSox, has signed. Solid 206 season, ++ competitiveness #MLBDraft #Terps That leaves only Dalbec and Groome, with little more than 24 hours left we should expect an announcement soon.

He reportedly had that deal, I'm skeptical based on what they gave their #1 pick because the math doesn't work out. You have to offer your picks at least 40% of slot otherwise you risk losing the pick if they refuse to sign. Also it wasn't completley 100% unrealistic that he would drop that far, once you drop a certain amount teams might not have the draft pool to sign you if your price tag is too high and team that has multiple picks can afford you later on. Example: Daz Cameron was a consensus top 10 pick last year but fell all the way down to the 37th pick. Yet....he had the 4th highest bonus in the entire draft.

Every once in a while it seems like a team gets two little for an asset or they grossly overpay. So the example is always there to support crazy trade proposals (semi crazy at least). But more often than not, as in almost always a trade has to hurt a little for both sides. Both teams need to feel like they won the trade for it to work.

Perhaps redundant is a bit excessive, but between Shaw and Hanley it's really not an area of need. I'd trade him in a package for a good pitcher any day.

No way they'd trade Devers for Hill, no team would, that's a huge overpay. Travis & TBall is more realistic, I'd give up Ball in heartbeat but Travis would be a little bit harder but he might be redundant in this system and he's more of a higher floor guy anyways.

‏@alexspeier Source: Red Sox deal w/1st-rounder Jason Groome 'getting closer,' 'should get done,' though final bonus figure still being discussed.

No, but I wouldn't call it an "extreme overpay" either. Your points on Dice-K however seem more fair.

The overpay for Dice-K supposedly had a lot to do with developing a market and building a reputation, although that doesn't seem to have paid any dividends but what did Lugo get??? 3 years 26 million for a guy who was average to better for an offensive SS with above average defense? While not the deal of the century that wasn't exactly a gross overpay either.

To revisit this proposal. Julio Teheran is ranked #45 on fangraphs trad value rankings. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-trade-value-41-to-50/ Meanwhile Andrew Benintendi is ranked 38th http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-trade-value-31-to-40/ Not sure were Anderson Espinoza would rank, but Julio Urias is ranked ahead of him as well at 36th and the consensus is building among scouts that Anderson Espinoza has a higher ceiling. I would concede his value might be a touch lower due to the fact that he's further away. But Benintendi + Espinoza for Teheran + an aging declinging sub .700 opsing outfielder the Sox don't need seems a bit ridiculous to me. Most around baseball feel Teheran is having a good year but does not have the stuff to be better than a mid rotation starter.

It will be very exciting to see a system that has Groome, Espinoza, and Kopech in it. I understand the Sox have a poor track records with pitchers in recent years but to be fair it's been over a decade since they had a trio that talented.

You don't believe in the Kung Foo panda? I sure as hell don't. I was joking up until now, but in a perfect world Pablo would come back determined, in shape, rebuild his value giving Moncada another 1/2 year in the minors next year. The Sox can then trade Panda and Bring Moncada up next June/July. This.....is wishful thinking, but we do live in a crazy world.

I don't know why everyone is freaking out, we were told this would happen. The kid was told he could go #1 for almost a year leading up until the draft, he had a price tag and the Sox have a budget. He fell far enough that his price tag was impossible to meet, the Sox new that, his agent knows that and everyone said the negotiations would go right up until the deadline. This is not unnatural. I have no ideal what the conversation is but it's probably something like this. Groome and his agent are asking for 4.5 million, the Sox have offered 3.5, they are both posturing and will eventually settle somewhere around 4 million. I was earlier optimistic that the real number could be as low as 3.75-3.8 but admittedly I'm optimistic that number could easily be 4 million to 4.2 million. But both sides likely have the capacity to budge. You don't go to a negotiation table with your best offer. Often guys are drafted with an agreement of what it will take to sign them, when a guy like Groome falls things change because the Sox probably weren't in contact with his agent due to the fact that no one knew he would drop that far. That doesn't mean they didn't have preliminary talks on draft day with ballpark figures and an understanding that they thought a deal could get done. I have a hard to time believing they would draft him if they didn't think they had a good shot at signing him. Relax, to reiterate my points, this is a negotiation and it was said in the very beginning by everyone in the know that it would go right down to the wire. I'm 95% sure he signs by the end of this week.

If the Sox do think Benintendi is MLB ready by July 31st they could bring him up to play LF, trade high on Shaw and have Hill/Holt platoon at 3B. No worries......we will have the Panda back next year!!!!

Jon Heyman @jonheyman sources: red sox, groome talks are intensifying. not done yet.

His demands were no secret and that might be why a lot of teams passed on him among other reasons. If you're asking for 4-5 million it's very realistic with a top 3 pick but once you fall you lose some of your leverage. Any agent knows that, you have to offer a player at least 40% of the slot bonus in the top 10 rounds to receive draft pick compensation if they refuse to sign. There is zero way any team could ever draft a guy like Groome and sign him to that kind of money unless they had top 3 money and no team will, nor have they ever blown up their entire draft for one guy. The exception to the rule would be a team who has a higher bonus pool due to multiple picks in the first round, like San Diego did this year, but they passed on Groome. The kid and his agent have some leverage, but so do the Sox. Odds are they will get a deal done, both sides are posturing which is normal.

3.5 million is well over the Sox slot and about 1/2 their total pool money. If Groome turns that down you can count on one hand how many bonuses larger than that were turned down in the top 10 of the MLB draft. It's not ALL the Sox fault if he refuses to sign. With that said, I'm sure the Sox will budge, If Groome signs they have little leverage elsewhere and that is probably why Dalbec and Shawaryn have not signed either. I'd be willing to bet the Sox know what they are going to sign those guys for but don't want to tip their hand. If they got both those guys for appx slot they can easily give Groome 4-4.2 but have nothing left to sign anyone after the 10th. Odds are they'd really like to sign someone like Nick Quintana as well. I could be completely off base here, and the number could easily be 4-4.1 million but I bet they settle for somewhere between 3.75-3.8 million. Book it!

Well, for all we know very close is 1/2 a year to a year. In prospectidum that's still really close to the majors, regardless close to ready isn't ready and if that's where he's at know people have been calling for his promotion for weeks now.

Ah yes, many suffer from shiny new toy syndrome.

Yes but so what? every single player is different. The average age of a rookie is 24.5 years old, Bogaerts is the exception and not the rule. Benintendi could be ready in 3 months, 1 year. He could struggle for 1-2 years at the MLB level before he gets it or he could hit the ground running but we shouldn't use the exception to the rule as precedent.

Yes, I do. This team will have the best offense in the American league for the next 4 years at least.

That makes it sound a lot nicer than it is, even in a stacked draft a player as talented as Groome rarely falls. Also, a lot can happen from now until then. They say it is expected to be stacked but that can change in a hurry. We don't really know exactly how next years draft will look. Also, we're hearing about kids who may have signed past round 10 for 150-200K that were told by the Sox to wait. A lot of them have come out and re-affirmed their college commitments because they were tired of waiting on the Sox. The 13th pick is nice consolation prize, but it is 100% optimal that the Sox get Groome signed.

No one person can be "the problem" on a 25 man team in which 1/2 of it contributes to every game every day. But when you pay a guy to be an ace, when you need an ace, and he comes in and pitches on the opposite side of that spectrum (he's been pitching like a BOTRS) he's part of the problem. I never complained about Price though and will continue not to do so because I've noticed he's actually turned it around during the last half of the first half and I've had confidence all along he would do that.