Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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The only real "data" you have to back up your point is 2019 in which he was obviously pitching hurt. You can't take a guy who is an ACE, has one bad season in which is elbow blows up and then take that data which OBVIOUSLY is a reflection of him pitching hurt, and then say he's lost his stuff since returning from an injury. That's a very skewed way of thinking. Unfortunately, we don't have a large sample size since 2019, but he did look pretty darn good in 2021, and the pitch data we have in terms of spin rate and velotiy PROVE his stuff has not diminished.
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That wasn't my point I was making an analogy, I could say 94 MPH or 93 MPH or 99 MPH. What matters is his velocity relative to his average velocity. His stuff is not gone.
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Not with a broken bone in his wrist he can't.
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Dropped to what? 11 per 9? that's still elite. He led the league once with 10.8 and finished 3rd in CY Young voting. His career average is 11.1 So 11 seems right on the mark for him.
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Yes! This isn’t the outcome of hundred or thousands of at bats. You can either pitch 95 MPH or you can’t. Me and you can play basketball 1x1 right now and I could drop a three on you. That would be luck because I suck but it could be skill or it could be luck. You proceed to dunk on me. I can’t say that’s luck, you can’t by chance do something you’re physically unable to do. If you’re pitching 95 MPH you’re pitching 95 MPH. Your data from a 3 year sample is mostly 2019. Weighing that year heavily, in which he was OBVIOUSLY pitching hurt. How can you say a guy hasn’t recovered from an injury by using his numbers while injured?
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And then his numbers dropped, and then his elbow blew up? could it be that his numbers dropped because of the injury? Seems like a no-brainer yes to me. You take that into consideration and look at his peripherals in 2021 and his velocity/spin data since his surgery and it's obvious that his stuff has not dimished. Doesn't mean squat if he can't stay on the mound but saying Sales stuff isn't there anymore is just flat out wrong.
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Are you seriously going to use 5 innings showing his hard hit % going up? in more innings it was less than 2017 last year? Come on Moon you're better than that. And where are you getting his velocity Data? I mean if we are going to use his 2022 stats his fastball averaged 94.9 which is .4 higher than his average. The difference between 1 MPH is negligible if you're hitting your spots and getting movement, his fastball movement has not diminished. I'm not sure what you're looking at. The only year that backs an argument of his stuff as "diminished" is 2019, it's a good but not super strong argument but remember, this was RIGHT before he got injured. Could it be his harder hit percentage in 2019 was because of his arm was about to blow up? Seeing how his velocity and spin rate is back up SINCE then I'd say yes.
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Yet he had his highest SO9 rate ever in 2019 and what a smaller rate in less than 6 innings? What stats are you talking about? other than his 2019 ERA. Why does a guy who has not lost velocity, not loss spin, and not lost separation have to be "crafty"??? CRafty is what you become when you fastball drops from 99 to 91 so you learn a new pitch and hit your spots better. Sale has not lost velocity.
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My only labeling a young prospect as the "next DH" is that he is a guy who HAS to hit. The bar for offensive production is set so much higher, It also takes away from being able to rotate and rest guys, which is fine when your DH is David Ortiz.....but then again Ortiz could HIT. I like Kavadas, and think he could be great, but the bar is set high for him. He could be a nice trade piece too, would like to see him develop into at least and average defending 1B.
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I hate making definitive statements based on small samples sizes, but stuff is stuff. If you're throwing your fast 95 MPH you're throwing 95 MPH. As athletes, you can either do something or not do it, like an NBA player dunking. In terms of stuff, Chris Sale still has it. If he ever gets healthy he's going to be great again. Now I can already forsee the dumb responses to this by the suspected characters about him never pitching again or staying healthy WHATEVER....I'm not saying he's ever going to be healthy and have a full season of health. All I'm saying is if he ever gets his injuries behind him and gets back up on the mound for a season he's going to pitch great. The pitch data supports that. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/chris-sale-519242?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
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Has he lost velocity on his fastball? has he lost separation on his fastball/change? and has he lost spin rate? are hitters swinging and missing less? On the pitching side of things, stuff can be measured. Chris Sale still has excellent stuff. He just sucks at staying healthy. If Chris Sale comes back and stays healthy you can bet he's going to pitch like a TOTRS.
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That was also ONE inning, he looked pretty good down the stretch last year and he looked good this year. In terms of his stuff, it did not look diminished at all, he just didn't stay on the field very long. If you want to say a guy can't be an ACE because he can't pitch that's fine. But I'm totally uninterested in arguing semantics with people. The facts are his stuff hasn't diminished, if he's healthy he's going to pitch great. Maybe he never gets healthy again though. People can argue they want but he's under contract.
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I just read that the way his contract is structured it's the same cap hit whether or not the Sox pick up his option so why not? I wouldn't pencil him into one of the starting 5 but I'd roll the dice and see how he looks next year. You can never have enough pitching.
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Obviously it would like great if the Sox make a big more to bolster the rotation, but only the smaller side of things it will be interesting to see if the Paxton situation pays off next year.
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Not the point. Point is, would someone really not resign Raffy right now because of a slump? Do we actually think he's regressed or just in a slump? seemed like a ridiculous statement to me that was all.
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Subjective, let me rephrase. Sale hasn't lost his stuff, he just can't stay healthy. It's not like he's not a good pitcher when he can pitch....he just hasn't been healthy. He came back last year and pitched great in the ALCS. He did what you expect your ace to do.
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It’s been said for a while that DD won that trade because none of those prospects really amounted to anything, Moncada was a bust. Kopech however is very young still and having a good season.
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I bet no one remembers but I was actually against the Chris Sals trade at the time because I thought his arm was going to blow up. It did, but afterwards it seems to be misfortune to prevent him from coming back. Bones heal stronger, if his elbow is fine then great. He still pitches like an ACE when he’s out there. Still, Sox need to acquire an ACE as Sale can’t be trusted. If he gets healthy and pitches amazing then great, we’ll have two and be a real WS contender.
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So if Raffys agent came to JH and said we will sign for 280/10 you say no?
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No, I think he knows something we don’t. Time to stock up in supplies and build that bunker
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Ummmm, is the world ending in a few years???
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Red Sox trade Hunter Renfroe in trade involving Jackie Bradley Jr
Hugh2 replied to Jasonbay44's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Then who plays CF? Kike hurt, JBJ gone, Pham was t here until recently (also not a CFer). Letting go of JBJ was stupid, especially if it didn’t free up any money. -
I didn’t look at Fwar I only checked Bwar. And I didn’t say Story was better only that he’s of comparative value…at least that’s what I think I said.
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Trevor Story career OPS .848 > Bogaerts .812 plus better defense. Not calling Story better, only saying he produced as good as value as Bogaerts. Facts
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Story’s been hurt for a long time and is still 2nd on the team in RBIs, has better defense and more power. Look at their stats before this season as well, Story had a good bat, as good as Bogaerts. Slightly less average but more power better defense. The knock on Story was Coors field, him and Bogaerts had identical OPS playing away which bit that narrative in the butt. But don’t take my word for it, look up what Story has done the past decade.