Hugh2

Stop being so rational, logical and insightful.

Haven’t gone too far back so maybe I missed something but - Wacha, Pivetta, Seabold, among a few other depth guys and relievers were also Bloom additions. Bloom seems to be pretty good at constructing an amazing rotation 3-5, just can’t get the 1-2 down. Although they were probably banking on a healthy Sale. Would be nice to get a TOTRS regardless of what’s Sales future is.

And yes I’m aware I’m kind of coming off as a dick. I’m sorry, we all take our frustrations of this season out in our own ways. I can’t help it. I’m sorry.

I can agree with Chris Sale can not be counted on in 2023 and should be treated as if he won’t. If he comes back healthy it will be a HUGE bonus for the team, but they need to operate as if he won’t.

Haha ok, but If you live in the world of baseball when you what scouts, GMs, managers, and people talk about a pitchers stuff, they’re sharing my opinion. So to act like this is a matter of opinion is just a little absurd, because your changing what having “stuff” is in the general baseball world. I could say strawberries taste like lemon, or I’m emperor of Mars because “I have my opinion” your opinion is based on your misunderstanding of what “stuff” is. Or at least in the context of talking about a MLB pitcher.

I think some are confusing “stuff” with results. Chris Sale can longer produce results consistently. For several years now he’s had little success getting into game action and compiling innings. His results effing stink. He still has 80 innings of baseball on top of simulated games in which pitches are still measured. We know for a fact his “stuff” is still there, he just can’t produce “results” because he keeps getting injured. Here is how you guys end up being right and I end up being wrong. Imagine everything working out exactly the same the last few years except when Chris Sale did come back his fastball is only sitting 89-90 MPH, he has little separation between his change, his spin rate is down and he’s not getting the vertical drop he once was. He would then be a guy who looks like he didn’t recover from his surgery and is now injury prone. He can’t stay healthy and his stuff is gone. He can’t stay on the field and if he did we’d have little confidence in him producing results because his stuff is gone. This is not reality, or at least it’s only half of it. Sales “stuff” is clearly still great. Just not the results because of his injuries. Just because some of y’all are cynical and hot and bothered doesn’t mean you can rewrite reality and change the nature of things. Facts matter. Will be waiting to laugh at how this gets spun, pun intended.

Obviously you have no ideal of what having stuff is. I get you you’re a very cynical person but you don’t get to just change the definition of things. Chris Sale has thrown innings in 2021/2022 since returning from injuries and his “stuff” which includes vertical break, horizontal break, and velocity remain elite. Just because he can’t stay healthy enough to help this team and you get all hot and bothered by it doesn’t change the definition of things.

I’m placing zero betts on Sale. I made the simple comment that “if he can stay healthy he’s a top of the rotation starter”. That doesn’t mean I have any faith he’s going to be that next year, he has to prove it. I merely am pointing out the FACT that he hasn't lost his stuff. You realize we can measure this right? We have radar guns, and advanced cameras that measure vertical/horizontal drop and spin rate right? Chris Sale still has amazing stuff, he just sucks at staying healthy right now and maybe he always will. Why is this so hard for people to comprehend?

No it doesn’t. If you can’t throw strikes it’s either because you’re hurt or your mechanics are off. You can critique mechanics and heal from injury. Now maybe you get hurt and never fully recover and as a result of that you lose your stuff. Some pitchers have amazing stuff but enjoy little success because they don’t have control, but they still had amazing stuff.

Again sample size is less relevant here. You can make a good pitch and a hitter gets a hit on soft contact inflating the stats in opposite directions of what you’d expect. But stuff is stuff. If you throw 95, 93, 99 or whatever it’s, that’s what you throw. What your spin rate is is what it’s. This translates to all sports, or any physical act. If I jump 5 feet, I jump 5 feet. It’s not luck, it’s a real outcome. If we look at Chris Sales stuff, despite the small sample size it’s still there. This should have ANYONE optimistic about how he would perform if he can stay on the field. Maybe that’s a BIG IF, maybe people on this forum have zero confidence in his ability to ever stay healthy again. Those are fair viewpoints based on the last few years but let me revert to my original statement that started all this. If Chris Sale can stay healthy he’s still a TOTRS, I’d bet my first born child on that. Because all the picthing data backs it up, sample size be damned. If he was throwing 90 MPH I wouldn’t be stating these facts, because those wouldn’t be them.

Aaaaaaand how does this correlate to stuff?

The only real "data" you have to back up your point is 2019 in which he was obviously pitching hurt. You can't take a guy who is an ACE, has one bad season in which is elbow blows up and then take that data which OBVIOUSLY is a reflection of him pitching hurt, and then say he's lost his stuff since returning from an injury. That's a very skewed way of thinking. Unfortunately, we don't have a large sample size since 2019, but he did look pretty darn good in 2021, and the pitch data we have in terms of spin rate and velotiy PROVE his stuff has not diminished.

That wasn't my point I was making an analogy, I could say 94 MPH or 93 MPH or 99 MPH. What matters is his velocity relative to his average velocity. His stuff is not gone.

Not with a broken bone in his wrist he can't.

Dropped to what? 11 per 9? that's still elite. He led the league once with 10.8 and finished 3rd in CY Young voting. His career average is 11.1 So 11 seems right on the mark for him.

Yes! This isn’t the outcome of hundred or thousands of at bats. You can either pitch 95 MPH or you can’t. Me and you can play basketball 1x1 right now and I could drop a three on you. That would be luck because I suck but it could be skill or it could be luck. You proceed to dunk on me. I can’t say that’s luck, you can’t by chance do something you’re physically unable to do. If you’re pitching 95 MPH you’re pitching 95 MPH. Your data from a 3 year sample is mostly 2019. Weighing that year heavily, in which he was OBVIOUSLY pitching hurt. How can you say a guy hasn’t recovered from an injury by using his numbers while injured?

And then his numbers dropped, and then his elbow blew up? could it be that his numbers dropped because of the injury? Seems like a no-brainer yes to me. You take that into consideration and look at his peripherals in 2021 and his velocity/spin data since his surgery and it's obvious that his stuff has not dimished. Doesn't mean squat if he can't stay on the mound but saying Sales stuff isn't there anymore is just flat out wrong.

Are you seriously going to use 5 innings showing his hard hit % going up? in more innings it was less than 2017 last year? Come on Moon you're better than that. And where are you getting his velocity Data? I mean if we are going to use his 2022 stats his fastball averaged 94.9 which is .4 higher than his average. The difference between 1 MPH is negligible if you're hitting your spots and getting movement, his fastball movement has not diminished. I'm not sure what you're looking at. The only year that backs an argument of his stuff as "diminished" is 2019, it's a good but not super strong argument but remember, this was RIGHT before he got injured. Could it be his harder hit percentage in 2019 was because of his arm was about to blow up? Seeing how his velocity and spin rate is back up SINCE then I'd say yes.

Yet he had his highest SO9 rate ever in 2019 and what a smaller rate in less than 6 innings? What stats are you talking about? other than his 2019 ERA. Why does a guy who has not lost velocity, not loss spin, and not lost separation have to be "crafty"??? CRafty is what you become when you fastball drops from 99 to 91 so you learn a new pitch and hit your spots better. Sale has not lost velocity.

My only labeling a young prospect as the "next DH" is that he is a guy who HAS to hit. The bar for offensive production is set so much higher, It also takes away from being able to rotate and rest guys, which is fine when your DH is David Ortiz.....but then again Ortiz could HIT. I like Kavadas, and think he could be great, but the bar is set high for him. He could be a nice trade piece too, would like to see him develop into at least and average defending 1B.

I hate making definitive statements based on small samples sizes, but stuff is stuff. If you're throwing your fast 95 MPH you're throwing 95 MPH. As athletes, you can either do something or not do it, like an NBA player dunking. In terms of stuff, Chris Sale still has it. If he ever gets healthy he's going to be great again. Now I can already forsee the dumb responses to this by the suspected characters about him never pitching again or staying healthy WHATEVER....I'm not saying he's ever going to be healthy and have a full season of health. All I'm saying is if he ever gets his injuries behind him and gets back up on the mound for a season he's going to pitch great. The pitch data supports that. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/chris-sale-519242?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Has he lost velocity on his fastball? has he lost separation on his fastball/change? and has he lost spin rate? are hitters swinging and missing less? On the pitching side of things, stuff can be measured. Chris Sale still has excellent stuff. He just sucks at staying healthy. If Chris Sale comes back and stays healthy you can bet he's going to pitch like a TOTRS.

That was also ONE inning, he looked pretty good down the stretch last year and he looked good this year. In terms of his stuff, it did not look diminished at all, he just didn't stay on the field very long. If you want to say a guy can't be an ACE because he can't pitch that's fine. But I'm totally uninterested in arguing semantics with people. The facts are his stuff hasn't diminished, if he's healthy he's going to pitch great. Maybe he never gets healthy again though. People can argue they want but he's under contract.

I just read that the way his contract is structured it's the same cap hit whether or not the Sox pick up his option so why not? I wouldn't pencil him into one of the starting 5 but I'd roll the dice and see how he looks next year. You can never have enough pitching.

Obviously it would like great if the Sox make a big more to bolster the rotation, but only the smaller side of things it will be interesting to see if the Paxton situation pays off next year.