Hugh2

Yeah, he had a bunch of great runs for us too, problem was he could never do it for the long haul. He's good, but he aint' a #1.

Also, wasn't Story's arm velo down BECAUSE he was playing injured? so why would we expect his arm strength to return to 2022 levels if healthy? I'd expect something stronger. To me that would constitute "normal" level of play, if he doesn't add any velocity fine he doesn't need to if he's healthy.

https://danblewett.com/tommy-john-surgery-recovery/#:~:text=The%20success%20rate%20of%20tommy%20john%20surgery%20is%20very%20high,%2D92%25%20of%20the%20time. 88-92% of pitchers return to their normal level of play after surgery. THat's pretty f***ing successful, it's not like....an unknown thing that most Tommy John Surgeries are successful

Yes but we are talking about a position player, not a pitcher throwing 97 MPH, and ftr many, more than half of pitchers end up ADDING velocity when they make a full recovery. So, again. If recovered and healthy Story should have PLENTY of arm for short.

We should have reason to believe that if Story is recovered from his injury he has plenty of arm for SS

No, that's why I'd roll with Kike/Mondesi/Chung at this point. But how does Storys elbow look? if it's rehabbed, maybe its' fine and he's fine at SS in which case move Kike to 2nd.

They don't need the room. WIth those additions and subtractions the Portland roster stands at 28 men.

Mondesi might be the best player out of all of those guys if he can get on the field, that's the thing with him, he's one of those guys who had all the talent but is constantly bit by the injury bug and never really ever had a consistent season. But he's a plus defender and has elite speed on the bases. I really liked what Wong was doing before he got hurt. I was fine with him at SS pushing Kike to 2b. At the time I would have loved Kike back in CF when Story came back but now.....now I just want guy who can field SS.

57.5 million dollars committed in 2025 not to spend****

The Red Sox are still a big market team. They're not quiet the Dodgers and definitely not the Mets but they're top-tier spenders 95% of the time year in and year out. We know they reset this year, we know they will go back over, we know their plan was to rebuild and reset. They're not taking the slow path decades route they just aren't. I can't believe that the Sox are going to reset, be looking at another 100 million to spend next year, and not go for a real upgrade. Why? Why do you say such things Hugh, THIS IS MADNESS!!!! Well, it's simple, Resetting this year means the Sox would be ok staying over for a few years, the latest they would want to reset is in 2025. In 2025 the Sox will have only $58 million dollars COMMITTED while the Luxury tax (the 1st threshold) will be up to $241 million dollars. That leaves the Sox with $183 hypothetical dollars to spend next year. Now of course they won't go over the largest threshold and have arbitration costs and other costs to deal with but if history is a precedent and we take these numbers in the Sox are poised for a much larger splash than just Sonny Gray. I wouldn't mind the signing if it was him PLUS a better pitcher. Next year is pretty stacked. Ohtani, Urias, Nola, Giolito, Snell, Montgomery, Gray, and others. It's also widely speculated that Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be posted, and he might just be the best pitcher out of that entire group. Scouts believe he is an ACE. I expect a very different rotation heading into 2025.

If you want to assume they go over the luxury tax you can look at the amount of money coming off the books In 2025/2026. From 24-25 dollars committed goes down from 116 to 57 million. If my theory is correct the Sox are set up for a massive commitment over the next two years if they so chose

I mean, a few of Blooms guys have popped after a year or two in the system so who knows. Still think he’s a long shot. We will see

It would be cool of him if he pops, but how is he in this conversation? he isn't on anyones top list and projects as an organizational guy. The odds that he's a MLB starter are very low. But not non-existent. But guys like him have 0% on moves you make to build your rotation for the next year or two.

WHo is DLR????? he is unranked

Why did I think you guys were talking about Guerrero?

Heres what Soxprospects says about Luis "Potential middle reliever. Ceiling of a late-inning relief arm. On the raw side and needs to improve his command and consistency, but has some of the best raw stuff of any relief arm in the system. Splitter is a potential separator pitch with the ability to miss bats at the highest level. Fastball has good velocity, but is hittable and he will have to show the ability to command it to succeed"

But he's already in the bullpen, and he's a guy who scouts have specifically mentioned as "the best pure relief prospect in the system" in that, they strongly see him as a reliever.

And how much money do we spend on RF/CF/SS to make up for what we don't get because we are trading away Mayer/Rafaealla/Duran for a #1 starting pitcher??? You could say those guys could bust like the Sale trade, or that maybe they dont' and you pay more in free agency to get the production those guys would have given you than you would in free agency on a starting pitcher. I suppose it comes down to which you have more faith in. I have faith in the Sox ability to draft and develop young position players. I'm not trading away those three, unless you 3 more of them in your system. The Sox system was around the 10-15 range in strength, probably closer to middle of the pack because some didn't consider Yoshida a prospect. It's not the time to trade for an ACE. If you had this EXACT same farm system, but a better MLB club, with more talent, and young talent locked up long-term (think Atlanta) I'd say strike now. Otherwise, it's premature.

losing all your talent that you'd want around that ACE just so you can have an ACE makes you the Angels for the last several years. I'm not saying we Don't trade for an ACE, but we don't just do it to have one, and I'm not opposed to paying for one with the likes of Ohtani and Giolito on the market next year.

or may get posted at least. It's a risk, but he will be in his early 20's and will come cheaper than the Ohtani/Verlanders of the world and he has some of the most electric stuff on the planet right now. Yamamoto is expected to be posted not Roki, going to research now on when we can expect that. I mixed the two up. Yamamoto is a young stud too. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/mlb-rumors-yoshinobu-yamamoto-ace-japan-npb-posted-2023.html

This is why you don't go for it until the timing is right. Having an ACE pitch his prime seasons here when you don't have a pipeline of star talent around him is wasteful. You can't sign ALL your stars, you have to develop them, and if you're trading guys away you're lessoning your chances. A strong team and a strong farm is when the iron is hot. I think that's in two years from now. Personally, I want to see them go big after Ohtani. Or maybe, the Sox want to go after the younger next big thing to come out of Japan in Roki Sasaki or Yoshinobu Yamamoto who many people say is BETTER than Ohtani, at least as just a pitcher. Who is Japan pitcher Roki Sasaki? WWW.MLB.COM Every baseball fan should know the name Roki Sasaki. He's the 21-year-old sensation from Japan who's already the most electric pitcher in Nippon Professional Baseball. He's a once-in-a-generation talent in the class of Shohei Ohtani. He's finally on the global stage at the World Baseball Classic, where he'll start Japan's He will be posted next year.

The problem is going for the guy in his early prime is going to cost you an arm and a leg, unless he happens to be a FA (which doens't happen often because guys get locked up early now) in which case it will cost you two arms and two legs. At some point you have to strike

Guerrero is a relief pitcher. Wikelman has a wide range of possible outcomes, too far away to count on. He could figure it out and pop, or continue to struggle with his command and look more like a relief pitcher in several years from now. The pitching in the system is NOT very strong, Drohan is a nice surprise, but the pitching is still a weak point.

Here is the Soxprospects projected rotation for the 2025 year. Lets keep in mind these projections assume zero trades or FA acquisitions. It only uses guys who will be in the Sox system in 2025. Garrett Whitlock Brayan Bello Brayan Mata Brandon Walter Shane Drohan Lets be honest, not one of those guys has established themselves as a starter. You can see it with Whitlock if he can stay healthy, and given his young age and ability to miss bats at the MLB level you can see if it Bello, but the question marks get bigger after that. That's 3 holes, and if one of the top 2 can't stay healthy it's 4. Now I'm not saying someone can't pop and fill in the gaps but anyway, you slice it, most permutations of a near-distant future COMPETITIVE Red Sox team probably involve acquiring a TOTRS via trade or FA. I think it's reasonable to see two starting pitcher additions to this team over the next two years that are not within this system. So I can see SP1 Free agent 1 SP2 Bello SP3 Free agent 2 SP4 Whitlock SP5 Drohan/Mata/Walter/Gonalez/Chris Murphy/Free agent 5

Your two best options for starting pitchers on that list is Bello and Drohan. Drohan is far from a sure thing, he's promising and is seeing his stock rising but he just popped as a guy who is looked at as a future starter for only a few months. Guys who are top pitching prospects and have been "guys" for a while fall short of becoming MLB starting pitchers all the time. If I'm projecting the Sox starting rotation 4 years out from now, maybe Drohan is on that now, but if you had 5 Drohans in your system you can count on 3-4 of them failing as starters and maybe 1-2 of those guys becoming decent to better bullpen arms. There are other young arms in the Sox system who have potential but they're just too far away to have any real confidence in (that can change in a year or two). I'd put these guys on that list. Luis Perales SP#8 Wikelman Gonzalez SP#14 Elmer Rodriguez-crus SP#16 Haven't talked about Mata, with his horrible control he seems destined for the bullpen but if something clicks he could be better than all 3 of those guys and Drohan. What I love most about Drohan, is he is the prototypical prospect we DON'T get in this system. We have the opposites of Drohans, guys who are good prospects and fail. Drohan wasn't considered a top prospect and his stuff ticked up and now he is. That's the type of thing that happens in a good system that can develop pitching. Hopefully, this is a sign of better things to come.