Hugh2

Most of the EGGS skewing those CERA stats have come with pitchers first and second starts. It's reasonable to assume that almost anyone can start off rusty and improve going forward. That's why this is such a ridiculous and ludicrous sample size to judge a guy in. It might be as absurd as judging batting averages after one series. I think if anything the Sox have favored Wong because they realized they need to control the running game. I think McGuire may be a little better going forward because a lot of that is on the pitchers too and they need to adjust, but his pop times have gone down a bit this year and Wong has shown to have a good arm. McGuire has shown this year and in previous years that he's a very good blocker and pitch framer. And for almost a full year now he's been hitting above average for a catcher. Both Wong and McGuire are playing at levels that could have them starting for a lot of other teams. Catcher really feels like the one position on this team we shouldn't be complaining about.....and yet it's dominating this board right now.

Because there isn't one. McGuire is a good catcher, and better than most teams' back up catchers.

So who is your second catcher? don't say Alfaro....he's not a catcher.

You don't even find an ACE for 20 million anymore. You CAN get an ace for about $27 though who has a very high chance of getting injured on you.

If the argument is Wong might be a better defender and we value you at the plate enough to deal with a drop-off in offense (and I think Wong can get better on that side of the ball) then I can get on board with that. But are you against McGuire as the backup catcher? Because someone else is going to have to catch 40-50 games this year.

Ah that is correct, I remember now. So it's only Mondesi, Mills, Story. So we don't have to DFA anyone. Braiser lives again!!!!! for a little while

If you took out the Rays series the Sox would be on pace for 101.25 wins this year.

If a guy comes off the IL, does someone not have to be removed from the 40 man?

I figured they would sign a catcher in Vazquez or Contreras and have McGuire/Wong battle for the second spot. I’m not saying Wong might not be the better catcher. My initial point was that McGuire is not a bad catcher.

I have a math based degree and have studied advanced statistics. I don’t know what the appropriate sample size is. But saying he’s averaging 3 runs more per game this year is clearly too small. If it’s large enough sample size then maybe Reese should be the DH. He’s going to be the next .400 hitter since Ted Williams.

I think you gotta switch Brasier and Ort. Brasier is next to go. Also, there’s no way Duran is getting DFAd for Duval. He’s be traded first but the way he’s playing lately why would t we want to keep him? Especially if this is for real. Kike is gone after this year so you have a hole in CF, and Yoshida could be a bust. I don’t think he is and it’s way too early but it ain’t looking good. Duval is gone too but Duran has team control. Unfortunately he has options (unfortunately for him) so he’s probably going to go back to and come back up again at least one more time this year. But if he keeps this up he’s going to be staying in the lineup

Paxton Joely Martin Story Duval Mondesi That’s 5 spots. Some roster maneuvering will be taking place. Now, odds are 1-2 guys go onto the IL while those guys make their way back. Hopefully not much more nor anyone key.

Eventually they will need a spot, a couple, and a Braisers 9 lives are up.

If the variance between McGuires and Wongs CERA (in as smaller sample size) is much higher than your article lays out between catchers (with much larger sample sizes) by definition your sample size is too small. That’s common sense.

I’ll repeat my statement from several days ago. Brazier is going to get DFAd before Ort.

That’s not how it works. It’s an insanely small sample size. A large variance in a situation like this might be a bad catcher who would have allowed 1 more run in 30 innings, but instead he gave up 10 more in 30 innings; Which may easily be due to other factors such as the pitcher. That’s a very large variance, that you’re using for McGuire, in an insanely small sample size. Saying things like and a paraphrase “McGuire gives up 3 more runs a game” is stating a very large variance in a sample size.

Told ya'll not to give up on Duran.

That's statistics 101. The smaller the sample size the more likely an outcome will vary from the mean. Hence, higher variances.

Easy, they will win a few more games above .500 and be a few games out from a wildcard. If more goes right than wrong maybe more. That's how. I'm not betting on it, but I'm rooting for it, and when you live in a world that isn't binary, and everything isn't black and white you can imagine a scenario where they win 90 games, and yes one where they stink and win 70. I would like to formally apologize for not being as doom and gloomy as everyone else.

Yeah I knew it wasn’t pretty. I’m happy we didn’t resign Wacha, but we could of used an upgrade not a Kluber

I don't remember I only drove by it twice, it's outside of Tampa Bay right off the highway and there doesn't seem to be much in the area, at first glance it would look like the traffic in/out would be easy. But...It's not like I got off the highway and tried going to a game so I don't really know.

You would think with such poor attendance the drive in and out would be pretty easy.

And I believe it's been said that what little relevance CERA does have on pitching performance (which is some just very little) takes a much larger sample size than most other stats. Which begs the question....why do we keep nitpicking his every start? "today McGuire gave up 3 more runs than he otherwise would have" but if there's anything to CERA we'd expect an elite catcher to save a run every week or two.....not 3 day.

If the Sox listened to me from my armchair we'd have Senga over Kluber, Nimmo over Yoshida, Kike over Duvall (because he'd be in CF) and Swanson over whatever our SS is. Probably wouldn't have signed Martin and we'd be right below the luxury tax. Probably with a few more wins as well. But, things can change quick. It is a SSS. Also the early returns on Senga look good, but you have to think those walks are going to catch up to him eventually.

Yes, they will.