Hugh2

Good defense makes good pitching even better.

Also, I should add the risk in drafting pitchers. High school pitchers is the most risky investment in the draft. So much so the Sox aren’t the only team who have backed off doing so. Between every class (high school hitter, high school pitcher, college pitcher, college hitter) hugh school pitching is by far and large the riskiest investment. That leaves college pitching. If you’re not picking in the top 5-10, then even those guys go bust or never develop into anything special. The best college pitcher we drafted in decades has been Matt Barnes or Tanner Houck. Plenty of Anthony Ranaudos, Brian Johnson’s, Pat Lights, and other high college pitchers that have never hit. Yes obviously pitchers are drafted high and become studs, but organizations that have had good starting pitching have also been lucky hitting on guys late in the draft. Roy Oswalt was a 23rd round pick, James Shield was a 16th round pick, Cliff Lee was a 4th round pick. Jordan Zimmerman 2nd round, Jon Lester 2nd round. Corey Kluber 4th round.(for those who have forgotten he used to be really good) Brandon Webb 8th round. At the end of the day you can trade hitting for pitching, or trade pitching for hitting. Sox are really good at drafting hitters. Just stay with that and trade for a few guys or sign them. If the Sox can’t draft:develop pitchers, then aside from an organizational overhaul that could take several years their farm system would suck right now. I know people care about the big league team, but the farm system ultimately exists to make the big league club better. By developing future stars or trading for areas of need. Also, in recent years, the Sox have gone very heavy in the IFA market with pitchers, playing the numbers game. That my take years to materialize

Devers played as good as an average defensive 3B last year. Also, I’m fairly sure top notch defenses can still have a weakness. No one has 9 good glovers out there.

He is, there’s no universal definition of a rookie that all of MLB and all the prospect ranking community abides by. Which seems weird considering that the MLB literally has draft compensation now tied to the performance of those rookies and their ranking. For example, MLB considers Yoshida a rookie, he has not shot at ROY but even if he did the Sox wouldn’t get a draft pick for him. For ranking bodies like Soxprospects it’s all subjective, as it is elsewhere

Hey we all got opinions, but fortunately there’s more talent than just Nola on the Market. I’m not really sold on any particular guy. I do have a gut feeling that Yama is going to be worth every penny he gets

Exactly, and what they’re losing the next few years they will replace within the farm. With line caveat being pitching, which is why I truly feel signing pitchers closed that gap. For example, I can see Roman Anthony replacing Verdugo after he leaves, Teel when Reese leaves etc. and if someone like Perales or Wilkeman hit the next two years then this team becomes dangerous with legit TOTR pitchers out front (Nola, Ohtani, Yama, insert ace here). I also think you need Turner gone to improve this team. And I know that sounds so backwards because he’s been so good for us, but he’s old, he could easily fall off a cliff next year and I want Yoshida at DH. I think it’s reasonable to assume Casas will get better at 1B. And with Rafaela up and Yoshida out of LF, and story at SS over Kike this defense is astronomically better next year. Maybe not a top ten defense but going from worse in the majors to average would be transformative. If the Sox had just AVERAGE defense this year, they probably win 3-5 more games at this point. They either have a wild card or are clipping at a teams heals. Add some pitching and improve the D and this team is dangerous

Given their long term success, the Sox can be forgiven for a subpar season here and there. But too much losing for too long will result in a dramatic drop in revenue. Henry has shown a willingness to spend, big at times, even set the market and go over. Not like LAD, or perhaps the new age Mets but he does over the long term Because it’s been a few years since he’s made, or authorized such a strategy makes it easy to believe he’s a cheapie with a change of heart. I get that opinion and why some feel that way But he’s not dumb, he knows he can’t put bad to mediocre teams out there year after year and not expect his finances to drop. This team is a winning team, you are what your record is. They have some good young talent, they have some payroll flexibility and more young talent trickling its way upward towards Boston. I know the past three years is horrible precedence for this opinion. But I’d be shocked if he doesn’t switch gears this offseason. This is why I’ve been predicting for a while that I expect the Sox to be BIG time players in the starting pitching market this year. That makes the rotation better and the bullpen better when you can have 2-3 of Whitlock, Houck, Crawford in there. With Rafaela coming up, Story healthy (hold our breath into 2024) the defense looks like it should be better behind that pitching as well. I truly feel this team with its upward projection next year could be a true contender with some good quality pitching added. Opinions are like *******s, we all got one and this is mine. I’ve been wrong before but I have to believe Bloom and Henry can see this as well. The fan base is restless. And even those who haven’t turned on them and want a change will eventually do so. Everyone has a breaking point. To me, it just makes too much sense to not go big. Now maybe that’s not Nola, it doesn’t have to be

I would offer my own critique with the simple change to “all women”

One could say the Mets 2023 season might be a deterrent for any owner thinking of going Steve Cohen. I don’t believe this though because Cohen has a lot more money than a lot of these guys and seems to add fandom into his decisions more than business where’s most owners want to make a buck. Over inflated liabilities is a good way to lose money in the long run. Well, s*** man, we gonna find out soon enough.

The penalties, that get very steep after 2-3 consecutive years over seem to be heavily influencing teams decisions. I can see a franchise like SD that thinks they have a legit chance of getting a World Series taking that swing. But I doubt they will set themselves up to live over like Cohen has done with the Mets. Paying 100% tax and losing your picks will destroy a franchise, probably won’t hurt much one year. It’s like smoking crack. Not a great decision, but you’ll get high and have a good time. Now go do it every day and watch it ruin your life.

Maybe, but so far only Steve Chohen has dared to stay above that limit. Philly may have to reduce payroll if they want to reset. Dodgers also would have reset this year if it wasn’t for Bauer.

Philly has exceeded the luxury tax two years in a row. It’s very likely they won’t be bidding on Nola

Bernardino had 2.1 MLB innings pitched before this year. Yoshida, while not in the MLB, had years of experience at the “professional” level

I’m not sure where you would find it nor do I care to put in the research but everything I’ve ever heard, and scouting report I’ve ever read seems to support this notion. As if it’s cannon. Guys who throw arm heavy, sustain more shoulder and elbow problems. Seems logical too

I mean, I would have DUran be my back up CF if Rafaela is there. Duval or Abreu would be the 3rd/4th option

Is Dalbec an appropriate comp to Yoshida???

Better and a proven bat. Abreu isn't even guaranteed to make the 26-man next year let alone be an everyday player. I like young talent, but I can only stomach so much on a roster, those guys flop all the time too.

True, but it appeared to come off earlier in the year too and he did get hot again for a while. I don't think he's going to be a stud, or the one he appeared to be when first called up. But I think he will be a decent player.

And what would be a reasonable contract for a guy who can OPS above .800 is under 30 on a first division team you HOPE will compete for the playoffs?

read my last post. Also, you need RH bats in this lineup. I want insurance in case Rafaela can't handle it, or Duran turns back into a pumpkin, or Abreu can't swing it, or Story gets hurt again. Duval makes sense if it's a reasonable contract.

Not sure Abreu is better in CF than DUval, might be worse.

I agree, which is exactly why I want an outfield addition in the offseason. We also don't know if Bloom doesn't want to sign top-line pitching of Henry won't allow him. If you're dishing out hundreds of millions of dollars it's with ownership's approval. We know the Sox will shift directions, we know they will blow past the cap and then look to reset and get under. We know this for three reasons. Knowing the structure of the CBA it makes sense, every other team not NYM are doing it, and more importantly, the Sox have done just this. If there was ever a time for Henry to say, or Bloom to say to Henry "now we need to go out and spend on pitching" THIS is that time. The cap is reset, the youth movement looks good, but it's mostly on offense, if you believe in that and believe you defense gets better next year then you exponentially get better with better pitching. This is what I would do, and if Henry can channel a part of him that has existed more than once in the past, then he will tell Bloom to go out and do it. I can't argue against those who are skeptical that they will do this, but I believe they should and I think doing so would be in line with their "plan"

Rafaeal is your CF

Finding a way to put Rafaela in the outfield and DH Yoshida, and a healthy Story makes the up the middle defense 100000X better next year. Add some top line pitching to the mix and this is a good team.

No Yamma is the top teir pitcher. Nola is the guy who can be your #2 and at times pitch like a #1. I only like Nola if he's signed in conjunction with Yama or Urias or something to that extent. Nola is 30, so is pretty much any free agent pitcher, which is why I like going hard after Yama. I also think Nola has been much better than you suggest, he's had some real s***** defense behind him. His FIP in that time frame is almost a whole run lower 3.32 but over those three years he's also pitched. 1.032 WHIP, 7.8 H/9 1.8 BB/9, 10.3 k/9. I'll take that.