Fan_since_Boggs

I would be surprised if Groome doesn't make it to the major leagues. If he doesn't make it, it'll be due to injury issues, not talent. Groome already has a major league caliber curveball. Once he improves fastball command, he will have two pitches that will get him to the major leagues. To be sure, his development time will take longer due to TJ, but if he returns healthy and can stay healthy, he will be in the major leagues. Assuming he maintains his health, the big question surrounding Groome concerns his changeup. How good will that pitch be? If he doesn't develop a plus changeup, he profiles more as a bottom of the rotation starter or relief arm. If he can develop the changeup into a plus pitch, he could become a top starter in the major leagues. With that said, Groome does have the look of a guy who may never maintain his health.

Shawaryn and Houck had great nights. The Red Sox need to hold on to both of them--they will need cost controlled starters. I think Shawaryn will be in the Red Sox rotation in 2020 -- Houck could follow in 2021. With Shawaryn, Houck, and Groome (who has big time upside despite the delay in his development) the Red Sox have quality young pitching and much stronger minor league pitching depth than most people give them credit for.

A good night for Pomeranz in AAA. 6 IP, 1 ER, 1 hit, 2 BB, 5 K. His velocity was still around 90 mph, but his curve was much improved. https://nesn.com/2018/07/drew-pomeranz-injury-southpaw-has-encouraging-rehab-start-with-pawsox/

I thought he took a temporary leave of absence, which is different from retiring. I'm too lazy (and disinterested) to look it up on google. Most people are expecting the Mets to be under new leadership next season. Alderson should have retired a few years ago. The game has passed him by and he has made a number of poor decisions--the Cespedes contract, the Harvey trade, neglecting the outfield defense, and a few other things.

I read somewhere that he will definitely be moved at the deadline. It wouldn't surprise me to see him end up on the Yankees. The Red Sox will probably look at him too. This was another mistake by the Mets. They gave up on Harvey, wanted to move him to the bullpen. Harvey and Boras were right in refusing such a move; the Mets were wrong. The Mets trade Harvey to the Reds for a mediocre catcher who is a free agent after the season. Harvey turns it around and now he will fetch a pretty good prospect on the trade market. Do we need more evidence that dummy Sandy Alderson should retire?

It is hard to get excited about Phillips. He didn't play particularly well for the Angels last season. His OPS+ has been under 100 for several seasons in a row. In fact, you have to go back to 2011 to find a season in which his OPS+ was above 100. His defense has declined. He is 37 and so he isn't getting better--he is getting worse. He doesn't have exceptional splits against lefties (over the last 3 seasons), thus a Holt/Phillips platoon doesn't seem like a good idea with Phillips playing exclusively against lefties. True, Phillips is probably better than Nunez, but that is because Nunez is a complete train wreck. Holt is better than Phillips and Nunez, but I would look to upgrade the offense and save Holt for that utility role. I would trade for Cabrera. The difference between Cabrera, on the one hand, and Nunez and Phillips, on the other, is night and day. Over the last four seasons, Cabrera's OPS+ has been over 100. He is 32 years old--still young enough. Cabrera would give the Red Sox some extra offense on those days when Betts and Martinez are not carrying the club. Cabrera would be a high priority upgrade; not only should the Red Sox trade for him--they should resign him in the offseason. It is tempting to release Nunez, he has certainly earned it, but he has 4 million coming to him next year and can play several different positions (albeit not that well). Nunez goes to the bench -- no more starts for Nunez. The key isn't to give Holt more or less playing time, the key is to demote Nunez to the bench, trade for Cabrera, and play Holt at various positions, giving the starters a day of rest and keeping them fresh. The Mets have two players the Red Sox could use--Wheeler and Cabrera. Get it done, Dave.

Yes, we are talking about going over the highest luxury tax threshold, and according to a report, the Red Sox plan to go over it. The penalties are financial, but John Henry can afford them. The Red Sox lose ten spots in the draft, but that can be pretty meaningless.

You don't want to go over the highest luxury tax limit every year, but once or twice every 10 years doesn't seem like a big deal to me. It makes sense for the Red Sox to go over it this year: (1) they are up against the luxury tax limit, but have a real shot to win a championship, and so why not make improvements at the deadline regardless of the financial cost? (2) Sandoval and Hanley's contracts are not going to be on the books forever--the two main culprits behind the Red Sox's excessive payroll. edit: clarification of "highest" luxury tax limit.

Joel Sherman: Reading that article, I think it is strange that Cashman references Cano: Cashman heard that Cano is a PED guy, right? You shouldn't compare a young player to an older player who improved and gained an advantage by cheating. Mention Bernie Williams or someone like that, not a PED guy.

Wow, I didn't realize Andujar was such a terrible defensive player: The Yankees interest in Machado and Moustakas is starting to make more sense.

I don't support the idea, not so much because of Betts, but because Martinez belongs at DH and isn't a strong defensive OF. By making this move, you weaken the OF defense, but you add offense. However: Runs scored through Improved Offense

Good news. The Red Sox are willing to go past the highest luxury tax threshold. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/red-sox-trade-rumors-luxury-tax-starting-pitcher-rotation.html John Henry has so much money -- why not? And losing 10 spots in the draft isn't a big deal. In many cases, the players available at 33 are the same players (in terms of talent and upside) who are available at 43. True, this would reduce the Red Sox's draft budget, but they have to go all in this year. At the end of the day, with a draft budget reduction of around $400,000, we are talking about maybe one fewer hard-to-sign draftee in the Red Sox system. In many cases, that $400,000 is wasted anyway on players who never develop.

Brian Johnson is a better pitcher than most people give him credit for. If he stays in the rotation for a month or two, he should perform well. I'm not saying he is an ace, but he has a plus curveball and is capable of pitching like a middle of the rotation starter. We can't totally rule out Pomeranz but it is hard to have confidence in him while minor league hitters use him for batting practice. Maybe that will change on Wednesday -- who knows.

In an earlier post, I suggested Beeks, Dalbec, and Swihart to the Mets for Wheeler, Cabrera, and Mesoraco. In Beeks, the Mets get a cost controlled starter who is ready for the big leagues now. Dalbec is a possible future starter at 3b (the Mets aren't loaded at the 3b position in the minors). The Mets can take a look at Swihart for the rest of the season to determine if he is their catcher of the future. What are the Mets losing? Mesoraco and Cabrera are free agents after the season. Wheeler has one more season of control beyond 2018. However, the Mets might demand more for Wheeler. It could depend on how much they like Swihart. The Mets are desperate for a young catcher, but that doesn't necessarily mean they want Swihart.

He replaces Moreland in 2020.

The Yankees are falling out of it. 4 and 1/2 out, pretty soon they will be 8 or 9 games back. The Yankees need to make some trades to stay competitive, but Cashman is confused and doesn't know what to do. Oh baby. I'm feeling it!

I'm starting to think that the Red Sox will resign Bogaerts to a long term contract and that CJ Chatham will be moved to 2b and will be the eventual starter at that position.

With prospects like Ty Buttrey and D.Feltman, there is no need to resign Kimbrel to the 80-100 million dollar contract that he will demand. Instead, the Red Sox will get a draft pick for Kimbrel. You let the vets compete for the closer role in spring training next year (including J.Kelly, who I would resign). In the long run, Buttrey or Feltman could end up as the Red Sox closer.

With E-Rod's injury, it is hard to argue against starting pitching as the top priority. As far as the bullpen goes, it is possible the Red Sox can rely on some internal options: (1) Ty Buttrey, who is dominating in AAA. (2) D.Feltman might be on the fast track to the major leagues -- he should be in Portland soon. If he dominates in Portland, the Red Sox might decide to put him on the 40 man roster and take a look at him in September.

I don't know why 2b has been pushed down. You won't find a worse player on this team than Nunez--a negative WAR of -1.2 and an OPS+ of 74 (he is as terrible as Pomeranz). I guess you like Holt at 2b?

But even more important will be his velocity. If his velocity is terrible again, and his curve isn't effective, you can't put him back in the rotation. He won't survive more than a few innings anyway. Velazquez is a better starting option.

There are plenty of better options on the trade market than Pomeranz. We aren't talking about the Pomeranz of last year, we are talking about the Pomeranz who has lost velocity and looks pretty cooked.

Pomeranz is starting in AAA on Wednesday. He will probably suck again. If he does suck again, I don't see how the Red Sox could let him rejoin the rotation. The bullpen, yes; the rotation, no. Rodriguez will be in a boot for 2 weeks and then reevaluated. Thus, the Red Sox will know more about his health prior to the deadline. Nevertheless, you would think that a SP is now a high trade priority.

Another guy to watch out for is Ty Buttrey. He is having a break through season as a reliever this year. He has earned a major league opportunity and could be the Red Sox closer of the future.

Good point. And acquiring Moustakis doesn't address the black hole at second base (Nunez). Holt has been OK, but he fits better in that utility role. I would rather replace Nunez at 2b with Cabrera than Devers with Moustakis. On the other hand, if Devers' injury is more serious than reported, Moustakis makes sense.