Nick

Sometimes good signing is that one you let it get away.....

"show me the money"...if Sox gives him the most money and most years when he becomes a FA, Betts will sign with Sox.

Wouldn't Arizona have some concerns about J.D. playing outfield in out lying years?

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/01/dave_dombrowskis_boston_red_so.html#incart_river_index Masslive has excellent summary of 27 players traded by DD. On the surface the one that really hurt was the Thornburg deal. Of course things can still change as some of these young players mature. Right now, for me, Kimbrel trade looks fair (Moon will argue we are paying FA money plus gave away prospects). I simply can't fault the Sale's trade no matter how good Kopech and Moncada turns out. Margot is starting CF for the Padres but his path was blocked with the Sox. Anderson Espinoza (Pomeranz)has dropped to #7 in Padres organizational ranking. He's still young and can recover from his surgery. Another solid year from Pom will go long way in justifying the trade. Dever's success will also go long way in erasing memories of couple of these trades. Moncade and Shaw. Carson Smith with 3 years of team control for Wade Miley definitely looks to be a winner especially if he can lock down the set up role. We still may get some mileage from Elias. I'm anxious to see where Micahel Chaviz's game is in September.

I'm anxious to see who gets the 'call up' this year. We've had Benintendi two years ago and Devers last year. Who are likely candidates? Perhaps a pitcher this year?

Wouldn't the other way around also be true? Who else is lurking?

Who is still in running for Martinez? Sox and the Diamondbacks?

nms

We already have an offer to Martinez. I'm sure DD has consulted with Henry about having to pay that $10M in penalty and he's received Henry's blessings.

Cot's Baseball has updated Sox payroll using estimate of $9M for Betts. Our projected payroll is $204M, $7M over the limit without any other FA signing. Martinez offer will take us into the 12% surtax territory (on top of 20% for going over $197M). Basically we have $33M to play with before hitting the 42.5% death tax. I don't see us offering more than $125M/5 year deal to Martinez. We'll need $8M for contingencies at trade deadline, assuming we sign Martinez for $25/yr deal. It's imperative that we don't pick up Hanley's vested option for 2019. We will absolutely not extend Porcello after 2019. I can see Sox shopping him if a viable alternative surfaces in our farm system. It would also help if we don't have a need for Kimbrel in 2019 and beyond. Basically we can use Hanley's money to sign Pom (his $8.5M for 2018 is already baked in, so it's a delta of say $11.5M to give him a $20M deal). That still leaves around $9M from Hanley's contract that can even go for Kimbrel. He's already making $13M. Sale's new contract can come from the money we're paying Sandoval right now. That's $19M in savings plus what Chris is making right now to get him to $30M plus. Luxury tax limit will jump to $206M in 2019 or $9M increase. That amount should cover much of the arbitration raises from 2018 to 2019. Basically we're good through 2020, window of 3 years. Younger kids need to emerge over the next three years.

Franchise value in baseball is based solely on future cash flow. CBA is a major part of cash flow. The last one was a winner for the owners.

THAT makes me fell better. Contract isn't as bad as........

Quite honestly, I'm hoping he retires after realizing he can't perform at the level he wants.

Wasn't Shane a 1 year $39M deal spread over 3 years?

Of course you are right. We are in 'debt' right now, we have the highest 'luxury' tax payroll. We already have $31M contract on our books. Sale and Betts will require big numbers. IT WOULD BE STUPID TO GIVE OUT $210m/7 YEAR DEAL FOR FUTURE DH. You know what? I want to see some of our younger players get an opportunity to play. We still have pretty good line up for two more years.

My only point was "don't get too greedy, best offer on the table may get pulled. then what?"

All great points... 1 spot on 2 spot on, contract is what's holding him up from getting a chance in the majors, IRONIC 3 some guys pique early, physicality is critical....he'll go down hill fast 4 spot on, now I'm hoping for no vesting. 5 I still hold hope for him, we need to win the World Series to justify his contract. $31M is the big albatross on our luxury tax payroll every time I look at Sox budget. 6 spot on Basically in 2017, Henry paid out $41M or so to three players (Sandoval, Craig and Castillo) not to be on 40 man roster.........unreal.

Right now we have the highest luxury tax payroll. It's simply going to be difficult to move out under it. We'll have to endure two more years of Sandoval's contract, $20M/year. It's a money that should not be earmarked for another player. We may have to put more faith in our younger, cost controlled players. Rick Porcello, two more years at $20M. I don't care how good he pitches, his contract has to lapse. Pom will become FA for 2019 and I'm guessing he's a bigger priority than Porcello. One of these two spots has to go to a cost controlled player. For 2019 Price, Sale, Pom, E Rod, Wright or any young kids. Hope for big year from Porcello in 2018 and then trade him. We can't re-sign Pom after 2018 and also keep Porcello for 2019. Give our young guys a shot in the 5th spot. Learn to live without Kimbrel. We can't afford to give a closer 4-5 year deals at $15M+ annually. Carson Smith as a closer for 2019. There are tons of young arms that can go to the bullpen. Learn to live without Hanley. Platoon him in 2018 and let his contract expire. 2018 Price, Sale, Pom, E Rod and Porcell Kimbrell 2019 Price, Sale, E Rod, Wright (?), young pitcher Carson 2018 Vazquez, Moreland/Hanley, Pedey, Xander, Devers, Beni, JBJ, Betts, Martinez (?) or combination players or another cheaper bat 2019 Vazquez, Moreland/Travis, Pedey, Xander, Devers, Beni, JBJ, Betts, Martinez (?) or combination of players or another cheaper bat This is still a competitive lineup that can get into the playoffs. Set a red line for Martinez. Let Borass come to us. Don't give in to his demands. Remind him of Steven Drew fiasco.

Mitch Moreland signing costs Sox nothing if he's platooned with Hanley.

Why complicate everything? Sign JD. See where we are at trade deadline and make a move or two. Signing Moreland was a brilliant move if it's used to get rid of Hanley's 2019 contract. Travis can be Moreland's platoon partner in 2019. We got bunch of options at 2B until Dustin comes back. Otherwise make a move to sign a 2B at mid season. This keeps our farm in tact.

I'm giving you a standing ovation. Best line of the Year.

I'm a big college basketball fan. I always chuckle when a coach complains about needing this and that. Why not just recruit what you need? Don't recruit a skinny kid if you need size. Don't recruit a non shooter if need shooting, etc. Sign Martinez and call it a day.

About a week ago, one member of the organization told me that there really might not be that much of a difference between Hosmer and Moreland. Besides three years in age, and batting average, perhaps. There is a difference, no doubt. But not $100 million difference, to be sure. Per WEEI I think Moon was very much opposed to signing Hosmer.

More I think about it, I like the signing, especially if we follow up with signing Martinez. We get Hanley for 1 year (assuming he is primarily platooned and 2019 is not vested), Moreland for 2 years and save $9M to boot. It's a good deal.