Moon, you're numbers guy....
We have two years of Betts, no gurantee of re-signing him in two years. What can we get in trade for Betts after we win the world series this year?
Luxury tax limit goes up to $206M for 2019. Based on this year's budget, then our ceiling is $246M.
I'm assuming Sox is willing to extend Betts at any price, but he's not interested. KEEP THAT IN MIND.
Here we go.
Tade Porcello, Xander, Bradley and Betts. Surely we're able to get one or two young, cost controlled, starting pitchers. One should be major league ready.
Porcello $20.625 M
Hanley $22.000 M (option not vested)
Xander $7.050 M
Bradley $6.100 M
Kelly $3.825 M (FA)
Betts $10.500 M
Pom $ 8.500 M (FA)
total $78.600 M
With starting AAV of $235,325,600, we rid of $78,600,00 and get down to $156,725,600. With a budget of $246M, we have available $89,274,400. Note that we have rid of high priced arbitration players. Arbitration raises will not be a big issue in 2019 after the trades.
Sign Machado and Harper at $33M AAV, you can front load it but have an opt out after 5 years (they are still young, make the first 5 years at $35M). Re-sign Kimbrel at $18M or $5M pay increase. Total FA signing is thus $71M and leaving the Sox with $18M for arbitration increase. With no other signings, we still have cushion to sign perhaps another bat on the cheap. Our line up would look like this.
Beni, Harper, Machado, JD, Moreland, Pedroia, Devers, Vazquz, Nunez or DH signing. Compare it to Beni, Betts, Xander, JD, Moreland, Pedroia, Devers, Vazques and JBJ. Less defense but overall more power.
The beauty is we don't have to worry about losing Xander and Betts and getting nothing in return.
In essence, we are paying Harper what we would have paid Betts but now we get something in return. Someone would love to have Betts for two years, I bet. We should get a young starter in return, at minimum.
Pitching staff? We'll still have Price, Sale and E Rod. We should get a fourth starter in Betts trade and we have Wright and others for 5th spot. This rotation is serviceable.
We can then sign Sale in 2020 using the $18M in relief we get from Pablo's contract. We still have Kimbrel and our bullpen I think will be fine.
This is being pro active and money works. There will be new CBA by 2023 and luxury tax will again go up.
It really is a perfect time to extend our championship. window.
I would pay to go watch Harper, Machado, JD, Devers and Beni. What's the down side?