Second tier penalty of 12.5% maybe acceptable to Henry. That percentage remains the same. Basically it's $2.5M. Problem is the 1st tier penalty because the penalty rate increases quickly from 20% to 30% to 50%. I seriously doubt Henry wants to be stuck at 50% penalty long term.
So from where I sit, we have three year window before the team is somewhat dismantled. Dismantled maybe little strong. What I'm saying is we can't keep everyone. Henry will pay 50% ONCE, but no more. He will want a reset.
One mitigating factor is that new CBA will come into play in 2022. I suspect that players are not happy with current arrangement. Acceleration in revenue far exceeds that of luxury tax limit. More money is flowing into owner's pocket.
Sox will need to prioritize. Hanley situation will play out. If we're able to get out of his contract, ie no vesting, I have no illusion of THAT $22M savings going nowhere but to pay for arbitration increases. I'm hoping Pom has a great year so that we can offer him a qualifying offer to recoup some of his acquisition price (our once highly rated prospect that went to San Diego). Someone like Johnson will need to step up and fill the void.
I think DD values Kimbrel and he'll be back. It's silly to have Sale and Price and not to have a quality closer.
No doubt, juggling money will be a challenge. Something Yankees have under control.
For 2020, Sandoval's money will pay for arbitration raises and Porcello's $20M will be used on top of Sale's $13M to re-sign him. Again, another starter internally needs to emerge. Our top 3 should be Sale, Price and E Rod. We can do worse.
Kimbrel, Sale and Betts are my priorities. (yeah I can day dream and think Carson Smith can replace Kimbrel but that appears not to be realistic)