Nick

Lets cut to the chase. Committed contract amount for 2020 plus benefits add up to $116M. Luxury tax limit is $208M. I think we need to reset in 2020. Say another $20M for arbitration increases. That puts CB Payroll at $136M. We have $72M to work with. We don't have to worry about 2021 (ie signing Betts) as long as we reset in 2020. In theory out budget for 2021 is $250M. Penalty will be around $10M and Henry will pay it. We have Price, E Rod, Wright, Hector and Johnson. Bullpen can be constructed internally with what we'll have plus the farm. We have Vazquez, Pedroia, Devers, Beni, JBJ and Betts. We need 1B, DH, SS. If would help tremendously if JD will not opt out and wait one more year. Remember the goal is to spend less than $72M to shore up SP, 1B, DH and SS. Lets say we already have Eovaldi under contract for $17M. We then sign Xander for $20M. That leaves us with $25M. Can we be creative extending JD with another front loaded AAV value of $25M with opt out after 2 years? His cash outlay would be close to $27M. Or we can just say screw it and extend Porcello. We'd have starters of Price, Porcello, E Rod and Eovaldi. We would need to fill 1B and DH internally. I guess we can always trade JBJ to create some cap room. We sign Betts for 2021 and out window will be extended for additional 2/3 years. I'm convinced we're not in as bad shape as many here think.

Offer Eovaldi 4 year deal with the money loaded up front, similar to JD. The goal is for him to have two good years. He'll opt out after we win in 2019 and 2020. Three peat.

Reading between the lines, DD expects 2019 to be the last year for our 1B tandem. That's savings of close to $13M. Next year will be last year for Nunez and his $5M. Pablo's $18M comes off the books. Sale's $15M also comes off along with Porcello's $22M. JD can opt out and saves us $22M. Xander's arb figure is $11M. I can see Pedey retiring after 2019 season. That's another $13M. We're up close to $120M. Our current CB Payroll is $225M. That figure is reduced to $105M for 2020 before arbitration raises. Set aside $20M for arbitration raises. Tax limit is $208M for 2020. That leaves us approximately $83M to 'go for it' in 2020. C Vazquez 1B Chavis? 2B Hernandez? SS Lin? 3B Devers LF Beni CF JBJ RF Betts DH Dalbec? SP Sale, E Rod, Johnson, Hector (Wright is FA) Bullpen....???// Are we better off signing Eovaldi and Porcello (2019 and 2020) versus signing just Sale? ($40M for two SP versus $33M for one?) Or can we sign Eovaldi and Sale for $50M (again for 2020, Eovaldi would add $17M to 2019 payroll) We'd have $33M left to either sign JD or Xander. For 2021, we can then focus on signing Betts and letting JB go. In reality, JB's/Betts old payroll amounts should conver Betts new contract. I don't see a cliff as long as we insert cheap pieces for bullpen, 1B and 2B.

I think we have two year window. I advocate signing Eovaldi. It's difficult to fathom Price, Sale, Porcello and E Rod all being healthy all year. In terms of importance, Sox should focus on signing, extending Position Players Betts, JD Martinez (Beni, Devers under team control), will need 1B, SS, CF Starting Pitchers (Price, already under contract), Sale (Eovaldi, assuming we sign him this winter)

Think how different the conversation would be had we not won the World Series. Yikes. This is so much better. Now we're only worried about repeating in 2019 (and wouldn't jump off a cliff if we come up short). Sucks to be a Yankee fan. Things maybe looking up. But can they win it all? Pressure is all on them.

Only way I move Betts to 2B is if we sign Harper. That ain't happening.

That TV contract works out to $37M per team annually. Sox will spend it on players. Others will pocket it. Who is more consumer friendly? Sox or the Rays? Boras has a point.

Again, missing the point. Yep, Moreland was not going to be the last signing. JD was also not worried about Moreland signing. It wouldn't have matter who but Morleand and JD do not play same position. Moreland signing had nothing to do wit JD. I was merely pointing out that IN WORST CASE SCENARIO, he had every position covered BEFORE he went after the BIG FISH. That's what grown ups do in management. DD is methodical. DD is astute. DD gets what he wants.

Even Kimmi thinks we need Eovaldi.....I agree.

Can you see a scenario whereby Sox trading away one major piece (for younger pieces) and still remain competitive for 2020?

I think you go for it next two years while you still have Betts. We may need several one year rentals for 2020 to stay competitive.

Cost of luxury tax, $40M plus threshold penalty 2018 $40M x 20% + $20M x 12% = $ 8M + $2.4M = $10.4M total cost $50.4M 2019 $40M x 30% + $20M x 12% = $12M + $2.4M = $14.4M total cost $54.4M 2020 $40M x 50% + $20M x 12% = $20M + $2.4M = $22.4M total cost $62.4M Let's keep the math simple and assume that the luxury tax payroll is $200M. My question is this. In big scheme of things, is there a huge difference between $262.4M (50% penalty) vs $250.4M (20% penalty)? What I'm getting to is this. Once you make the decision NOT to adhere to the luxury tax limit of $200M, would $12M dissuade you from putting the best product on the field? For the Sox, the magic number is NOT $200M, but it's $240M and penalty of $22.4M (50%-3rd year) is not much off from the penalty of $10.4M (30% - 2nd year). We PISS AWAY that money each year in non performing payroll. It's only 5% more. ($12.4M/$250.4) We don't need to reset. Let's just wait for the new CB Agreement and hope the threshold gets a major bump for 2022,

How much is playing 14 additional games worth to the Red Sox? Not to the players, but to the team? Few years back there was an article about what it meant to the Yankees financially to get into the playoffs. The gist was it was worth another $30M or so. I was thinking at the time that would pay for FA signing for one year. Maybe I was just day dreaming. Any idea?

Pretty much everyone on Sox roster gets a pass after winning the World Series, for me. Even Pom, who did not hurt us.

Speaking of Yankees, if they want to remain under luxury tax, they have approximately $33M left for FA spending. Machado would eat up all of it. They will probably go for 1 FA starting pitcher and another via trade. $22M paid to Jacoby is a big hurt. Maybe he can stay healthy next two years. Yankees do have some trading chips for sure. It's not as though they can spend unlimited amount of money if and it's a big if, they was to stay away from luxury tax. Good news for them is that for 2021, they only have two players under contract for $42M. They will have expensive arbitration players by then.

One thing I liked about DD last year was that he signed Moreland early. Obviously he very well may have overpaid for him but after the signing, we had every position covered. Remember, Hanley was probably going to DH. Moreland signing I believe gave DD an insurance against overpaying JD. His approach very well may have been "look, we have a team. JD can join us or not, but it will be on our terms." He outplayed Boras.

Is it also slam dunk that JD will opt out after 2019 instead of 2020? He's paid $23.75M for 2018, 2019 (opt out), and 2020 (opt out). Last two years he'll only get $19.375M. Can he get a 4 year $100M after 2019 if he repeats this year's numbers? Why didn't he get that last year when he was year younger? Plenty of people had opportunity to sign him. I think the championship window exists for two more years if we sign Eovaldi and JD does not opt out. Pablo contract will take care of arbitration raises for 2020. We'll also have Moreland ($6.5M), Porcello ($22M) and Sale's ($15M) coming off the books for 2020. That's $43.5M. That's probably enough to sign one starter to go along with Price, E Rod and Eovaldi. Couple of guys need to step up from our farm system. Maybe Dalbec will be ready to play somewhere along with Chavis. Will our farm ever produce a reliable starting pitcher?

C Vaz (1 Betts 2 Beni 3 Moreland 4 JD 5 Xander 6 Devers 7 Vaz 8 Lin 9 JBJ ) 1B Moreland 2B Lin? SS Xander 3B Devers LF Beni CF JBJ RF Betts DH JD Utility Leon, Nunez, Holt, Swihart SP Price, Sale, Porcello, E Rod, Hector RP Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Johnson, Workman, Scott, Poyner, Thornburg 26 players. Is that good enough to win it all?

Would you give Kelly, a 4-year, $28M and Eovaldi a 4-year $60M? Would that get the job done?

DD took the job on the heels of Sox finishing dead last three out of four years. His first task was to right the ship. Signing Price, trading for Kimbrel and Pom were his first order of business. He then moved towards competing for World Championship by first signing Sale and then adding JD to a lineup that seemed 'soft' the previous year. He completed the pursuit by adding Eovaldi and Pearce at trade deadline. Realistically we shouldn't count on Wright nor Pedey returning at 100% next year. They are incapacitated. My priority would be to sign Eovaldi, then Pearce and if we can squeeze in Kelly then we'll be set. I think we can fill 2B internally. We did it in 2018. Cot's has the Sox at $219M. Our fictitious budget is $246M ($40M plus the luxury tax limit of $206M). That only gives us $27M to work with.

I want us to sign both Eovaldi and Pearce. Bullpen will be manageable. Add reinforcement if needed in July. I know I sound like broken record but Eovaldi signing is a hedge against losing both Porcello and Sale the following year. Think also about another possibility with Eovaldi in the fold. Assuming Wright comes back healthy, and both Hector and Brian continue to improve, I can see a scenario where one of them will occupy the fifth starting slot. This group is all about the team and winning. I can see one of starters stepping in after the All Star break to become a closer. You may think it's stupid idea but who would have thought we'd use so much of our starting pitching out of the pen? Big if but if Pedey comes back healthy and productive, it will solidify one of our weak spots. Young Devers will continue to improve. Christ, he's young. Leave him alone. Star in making. We can build the next great team around Devers and Beni. Hopefully Dalbec, Groome, Chavis, Feltman, Shawarryn, and others will come through.

I don't remember that but I can get pretty stupid at times.

Can we also take a different approach with FA signing? Suppose DD says to his baseball staff. I want to sign Eovaldi to a four year contract. The goal is to win in 2019. We will trade him at the end of 2020, hopefully he'll help us go back to back, and hopefully his trade value is high. Let's see what young players we can get in a trade? I think what I'm getting at is find a value in Free Agents signing a good contract and flip them before the contract expires. What can we get for JD right now?

Positives 6 more years of team control...Poyner, Lin 5 more years of team control...Devers, Johnshon, Hector, Brasier, Maddox, Scott 4 more years of team control...Price, Beni, Marco, Swihart 3 more years of team control...E Rod, Barnes, Vaz, , Pedey, Hembree 2 more years of team control...Betts, JBJ, Wright, Workman, Sandy 1 more year of team control.... Porcello, Sale, Xander, JD, Moreland, Holt, Nunez, Thornburg What if Betts was the only player we don't sign? Can we afford everyone else? Including Pearce and Eovaldi?

I completely agree on Mookie. I just think it's not prudent to give 10 year contracts. I'd like to see the Sox 'go all out' again 2019 and I think they will. We need to do a reset at some point. Would it make sense to explore the trade value of Mookie after 2019 season? Can we not garner a cost controlled young starting pitcher for Mookie? 2018 win was all about team effort. Had we solely depended on Betts and JD we would have been toast. It's better to have 25 solid major leaguers as opposed to say a Machado or Harper.