Nick
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Everything posted by Nick
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Couple of years ago, there was an article about the financial impact of Yankees making the playoffs. I remember a number close to $50M for hosting the playoffs. My point is $23M in penalties will be offset by additional revenue generated from the playoffs. My guess is Henry has more than enough money. What will be his legacy? "His estimated new worth was $1.5B at the time of his death" or "Greatest Red Sox owner, beloved by millions for bringing 10 World Series Championships to Fenway faithfuls"..... I close with a quote from Steve Wonder, when told his home was 'modest'. "No matter how much money you have, you can only eat three meals a day." He maybe blind, but he's very wise.
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f I were flow charting my first question is do you think we'll reset? Honestly? I'd say no. I think at some point $40M over the threshhold becomes our 'hard cap'. That means Henry is willing to spend $23M in penalties. This will be true as long as we're getting into the playoffs Not sure where you are coming from...I clearly said NO RESET.
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All of our discussion has to include financial aspect of it. To simply throw out that we need a closer makes no sense. Yes, f***ing genius, we need a closer. Is that likely based on what DD has been saying? That we're not looking to spend big money on a closer? If I were flow charting my first question is do you think we'll reset? Honestly? I'd say no. I think at some point $40M over the threshhold becomes our 'hard cap'. That means Henry is willing to spend $23M in penalties. This will be true as long as we're getting into the playoffs. If I'm Henry, there's no excuse for not getting to the playoffs while spending $40M over the limit? My reaction would be WTF? $250M and we can't buy a playoff spot? With that in mind, we can re-sign most of our players. Not all mind you. Also by the time Beni and Devers become FA, Price/Eovaldi contracts will expire. We need productive farm. I'm against trading away young players for bullpen help.
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Follow up... Realistically, you only need additional $30M to extend both Betts and Price. That would put their payroll at $35M and $30M. You can accomplish that with Pablo, Moreland and Pearce money. You can use Nunez' $5M to extend JD. You can use Porcello's $20M and Xander's $12M to cover arbitration raises. Maybe use some of that money to sign Pearce to another one year deal. Under this scenario, you still have Price, Sale, E Rod and Eovaldi as starters. Everyone will be back with Pearce filling in at 1B for one more year. We'll need a shortstop and a fifth starter. We can remain $40M under the cap. That will cost us another $23M in penalties but Henry can afford it. We'd still be competitive in 2020.
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Interesting thing about Betts extension would be how much of the 'house' he wants occupy and what it means for competitiveness of the team after the extension. If you demand $400M over 10 years, can you still expect the team to field a contending team without breaking the bank? Sox are $40M over the luxury tax limit with Betts earning $20M. Biggest ticket item to come maybe re-signing Sale. Can we give both Betts and Sale $20M raises? Do we use Porcello's $20M and JD's $22M to sign both Betts and Sale? What about using Pablo's $17M to extend Xavier? Or what about using Xander and Pablo's money combined to give JD a new deal?
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Not directed at you. But we want it both ways. Build the farm, trade away the farm. Michael Chavis is ranked #1 in Sox Prospect List. And he has no future as a major leaguer in Boston? I guess our farm is worse than I thought.
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I don't want any holes open up to plug another. Everyone here wants rotation depth. Yet they argued against signing Eovaldi. Why would Sox trade Porcello, the workhorse of our staff? I would rather go with Brasier/Barnes closing than to start to blowing up this team. Make a move at trade deadline. I also don't want to trade away Chavis. We can't give up on a potential regular starter with power for a bullpen help.
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Cot's Baseball is a terrific resource. They had 9 arbitration eligible players at $55.425M. Eye test says it ended up being around$58M at most. (eg projected Betts at $19.5M vs $20.0M final). Not much changes. We're about $35M over the luxury tax limit. Implication is that IF, and that's big f***ing IF, $40M over is Henry's absolute cap, then we only have about $5M to sign a closer without going over the second penalty phase. Most of us agree that we'll go over the $40M overage mark. Bigger question is implication for 2020. Ideally we'd sign Kimbrel for one year $20M and go take a nap.
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Yeah, don't let the facts get in the way.
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It's laughable to suggest that baseball players must earn entire life's worth of living expenses during their baseball career. So what if Dustin has a bum knee. He can't do anything else to earn money? They can go get a f***ing job like rest of us when they retire at 30!.
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Nice write up....I appreciate it. I will keep it simple. As I get older, I simply go for individual's ceilings. What's his best? You have to assume the player is 100% healthy. I'm just excited for our rotation. The ceiling is high for this unit. I did back flips when we signed Eovaldi. I'm a gambler by nature. I like the five cards dealt to me.
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Sky is falling. Sky is falling. My guess is Cora is communicating with DD on his needs and wants. I've not heard Cora complaining yet.
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https://weei.radio.com/articles/column/tomase-craig-kimbrel-red-sox-reliever-remains-available-because-hes-flawed-not Here's great article on WEEI about Kimbrel. I'd look elsewhere. I prefer mid year acquisition depending on how Brasier/Barnes do.
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Brasier getting the closer job at $550K is no riskier than giving Kimbrel 5 year, $80M contract to do the same job. Is it just as likely that Brasier's career is finally taking off as likely as Kimbrel's career is beginning to decline? Which option is riskier for Sox? You can make adjustments to mistake option #1. How do you make adjustment to mistake option #2? What say you, Mr. Pablo Sandoval?
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Well said.....I'll worry about it after 5 blown saves in a month. Until then, we're the freakin' World Champs.
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Kelly only became effective when he went away from his 100 mph, straight as arrow "hit me hard' fastball.
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Not sure if you read my post carefully but I said, Not only that, in a jam, Eovaldi can indeed step in and close for us. If we don't sign a closer, Sox will name either Barnes or Brasier as the closer.
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It's interesting that MANY of you did not want the Sox to sign Eovaldi. I think it was brilliant move from the perspective of hedging against both Sale and Porcello leaving the Sox after 2019 season. Not only that, in a jam, Eovaldi can indeed step in and close for us. If we don't sign a closer, Sox will name either Barnes or Brasier as the closer. And If they 1) falter before the trade deadline or 2) a starter emerges from the farm at some point this season or 3) Sox is unable to trade for a closer at trade deadline, you may see Eovaldi move over to the pen to save his arm. We know that Eovaldi is all about winning, he's signed for four years, He's not playing for a new contract in 2019. I can't see him saying no. In essence, if Eovaldi does indeed end up closing, we gave Kimbrel's 4 year deal to Eovaldi. Unlike Kimbrel, our new closer Eovaldi, can start or come in in relief and pitch 7 innings.
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Signing Pearce to a one year deal was another excellent move. Sox would like to see Chavis step into the 1B position for 2020. I believe if JD opts out and signs elsewhere, Pearce may get the first call to fill in the DH spot. Basically going from $35M (JD, Moreland, Pearce) to say $8M (Pearce, Chavis) for the reset. Just saying.
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And he can even DH when an JD subs in outfield.
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2019 soft cap after taking out player benefit is $193M. Let's make the numbers easier by saying each team can spend $200M on 25 players or $4M per man. The goal is to win. That's what makes fans happy. I'm sorry but I don't care how good Trout is. I'm not going to watch him play if he's on a losing team year after year. I will always watch winning Red Sox team. I will not watch losing Sox team with Betts on it. If Betts eats up too much of that $200M payroll, Sox will not win. Baseball is still a team sports.
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I guess the thinking is 50% penalty of $20M based on our mythical budget of $40M plus the limit is just is too rich for Henry as opposed to 20% penalty of $8M. The delta is only $12M which may mean nothing to Henry.
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Closer signing in terms of amount and years will say awful lot about Sox plans for reset.
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5 more years at $31M AAV.....it could get ugly.
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Few Random Thoughts This was one of most enjoyable Red Sox team. Power does matter, you can't convince me otherwise. DD will do his best to put together best team on paper. He will not trade any significant pieces this year. It's just silly. It's more likely that we'll extend some of our players. I know what a 'cliff' looks like. That was E Rod's rookie year. Call me a homer but I only watched games when he started. A 'cliff' is when majority of fans decide they have better things to do in life than to spend 3 1/2 hours watching the Sox get pummeled. Happy New Year everyone.
