Nick

I was alluding to his performance after he signs his mega deal. Not getting fat before the extension.

Famous line from the movie "Rounders"......"Give the man his money". Devers is projected to earn $16.5M in his arbitration year 3. Just tack on another $20M and call it a day. IT'S REALLY NOT COMPLICATED. WE'RE BIG MARKET BALL CLUB. ONE CONTRACT AT $35M WILL NOT SINK US. What exactly is the downside? Is he going to forget how to hit? Will he load up on tacos and get fat? I think he played hurt in 2022, at least he was not 100%. We'll still have $20M left to acquire couple more players. (assuming we wanted to get below the tax line). 15 Years...Devers 06 Years...Casas 06 Years...Story (counting option year) 06 Years...Whitlock (counting club option for 2 years) 06 Years...Bello 05 Years...Yoshida 05 Years...Houck 04 Years...Schrieber This would be the start of our core group to go after another title.....

I'm not sure if we ever resolved the luxury tax issue with Hosmer........but Cot's 'available money' will go up by $5M now to $48M as soon as he's off of our books. Not many teams are faced with luxury tax penalty for 2023 so picking up Hosmer for minimum wage but additional tax money attached will have no consequences to that team.

I am against trading away our young talent. With Bloom's approach, he needs another season for younger kids to grow a year older and hopefully get better. As I've said often, I'm having trouble nailing down the core group that will get us to the playoffs annually. My concerns would be alleviated if we do extend Devers this winter. Right now I'm not very optimistic of that happening. So the core group right now consists of Story (due to his contract length), Yoshida, Casas, Bello, Whitlock, Houck and maybe couple of others. That is not a deep roster. It was stupid not to get under the tax limit during July. Bloom basically treaded water. Did just enough not to piss off the fanbase. See what that got us.

Tanner Houck was 8-9 in save opportunities. Hansel Robles blew 6 saves. Strahm was only 4-9 in save opportunities. My favorite whipping boy Brasier blew 4 saves.

Blown Saves in 2022 Rays 36 80 Marlins 31 71 Brewers 30 81 Cubs 30 74 Rangers 29 64 Red Sox 28 65 Pirates 28 60 Angels 27 65 Twins 27 64 Braves 27 81 Arizona 26 58 Blue Jays 25 70 Athletics 24 57 White Sox 23 70 Padres 22 69 Reds 22 52 Giants 21 61 Royals 21 53 Rockies 21 62 Yankees 21 66 Dodgers 18 61 Phillies 18 59 Guardians 18 68 Nationals 17 45 Tigers 16 53 Cardinals 16 53 Astros 16 68 Mets 15 55 Mariners 15 54 Orioles 13 58

Maybe I'm way off but I really did not see drop off in catching, statistically speaking. There has to be some leap of faith. I would hope Sale can replace Eovaldi. We have entire year of Bello. I believe he'll be as good as Pivetta. His stuff certainly is there. We also will have whole year of Whitlock. I would hope he can equal or better say Hill's contribution. Put it in another way 2023 (Sale+Bello+Whitlock+Paxton) = Eovaldi+Hill+less than whole year of Bello and Whitlock in 2022. We need to add another starter to replace Wacha. Xander gone obviously is a problem. Is it possible that incremental improvements at other positions plus bigger contribution from Story at 2B will get us close to 2022 offensive production? Again, I have to believe there will be another addition to the position roster. Thus, my whole point is (which I did not say) if offense and starting pitching productivity remain relatively equal, will the difference in pen production get us to 10 more wins? Or maybe it will provide us with 15 game improvement less 5 game reduction from other areas, still netting us 10 game improvement.

From 30,000 feet above Fenway. Tampa qualified for the playoffs with 86 wins. Based on number of blown saves we had last year and the additions we've had thus far in the pen, is it reasonable to expect a 10 game turn around? That would give us 88 wins. Despite all of my bitching, I am always optimistic about our Sox. For me, Xander was GONE when the extension did not occur prior to opening day. All the analysis now just gives me headache. I will feel the same way about Devers in 2023. We are in the best position to negotiate with Devers RIGHT NOW. Not next October. PS. I have seen rumblings about how Bloom totally messed up about going over the luxury tax line in 2022. I will give him a benefit of doubt but that was an unforced error in my book.

DD's been on my mind.

Note to Bloom. Now is the time to extend Bello. When the season starts, offer him a 8 year deal. $80M should do it. We'll have 9 controllable years. That's how you gamble. He could have Tommy John and we'd still have 7 years of him.

I like to stir up the conversation here sometimes. Especially when Moon and Old Red aren't going at it.

I have trouble comprehending fWAR. What would Schwarber's fWAR be had he batted in Xander's place in the Sox lineup? Defensive metrics to me is much like the Gold Glove winners. Looks very subjective, almost made up numbers. Can someone provide me with the fWAR numbers for American League teams? How does that compare to number of wins by each team.

Advice to Bloom. Quit pussyfooting around when it comes to Devers. Make an offer he can't refuse or just trade him now. Do NOT, and I repeat Do Not try to extend Devers for an amount that's minutely better than the next offer. (yeah, I know, we don't know what that is) There's a rumor circulating that we overpaid Yoshida. Well, that's what we'll have to do to extend Devers. If we are going to build a team around Casas, Mayers, Bello and Mata, then trade Devers for multiple prospects. As of today, I'm not sure what the plan is. One thing about DD, we know exactly what he would have done with Xander. He would have paid $300M for 10 years. He likes round numbers. Big ones.

And for those critical of Yoshida's lack of power, San Diego just paid $290M over 11 years for a player that hit 15 HR. Hell I would have traded Xander straight up for Schwarber.

What f***ing idiot on this board wants to give Bogey $290M for 11 years? If you do, you have no credibility with me. Fans keep talking about we should have made a reasonable offer earlier. What amount would that have been? More importantly would Xander accepted it? It was always the smart move for Xander to test the free agency. Many here want a bargain. Why? This is how the free agency should work. Go find that billionaire that just can't say no.

Very good. Opening 2022 payroll.......$206M vs $83M......not sure why we are called Tampa North.

It sure looks like Hosmer's contract will cost the Red Sox additional luxury tax payroll in excess of actual cash payout to the player. Look closely at FanGraph analysis of Sox luxury tax calculation. First Cot's, now this.

All of this is moot, if we don't sign a legit Free Agent this winter. Hell we picked up Story last winter. Don't we need two of them assuming Xander is gone?

I'll take chance on 3 years of Verlander. I would gamble that he'd be healthy and good for two of the three years. Sales' deal comes off after 2024, unless he pitches well and we pick up his option. That will give time for Bello, Whitlock (as a starter), Mata maybe Cutter to develop into bona fide starters. According to Cot's, we have $81M (unless of course Cot is wrong on Hosmer, then we'll have $86M). Verlander and Senga would command say $55M. SP Verlander SP Sale SP Senga SP Pivetta SP Whitlock SP Bello CC McGuire/Wong 1B Casas 2B Story SS Arroyo 3B Devers LF Verdugo CF Kike RF Refsnyder DH Hosmer/Dalbec We'll have $55M to fill in the roster spots where its weak. I'm guessing you can stretch $36M into 5 players, or average of $7M. We currently only have 6 players making more than $5.5M. Surely we can buy/trade some players for $7M and improve our roster. Meanwhile we can reset after 2023 and then extend Devers next winter and really go for it.

I'm wondering, if we end up going for a guy like Verlander, so we don't hamper longer term budget issues. Moon I've always advocated for adding starting pitching at the top, and not the bottom. The goal not only is to make the playoffs but enhance the team's chances via strong starting pitching. Hitters are unpredictable in a short series. Look at Aaron Judge this year and Mookie couple of years ago (?) It's silly to extend Xander's contract for 6-7 years when the team wants to build the future around Devers. We have many considered to be the top pick in Mayer ready to move in as early as 2024. We can live with a 3 year deal. We do have to role the dice once again on Chris Sale. Verlander and healthy Sale for next couple of years would go long way in getting us into the playoffs. Also make a strong run at the Japanese free agent pitcher. $15M would do it. Do it Bloom.

Touching 98 is much different than having a heater. He does not have a heater. Never seen it. Him getting out of a jam is pure luck.

If we are again dumpster diving, I suggest we bring up young guys and give them experience. I am sick and tired of watching Brasier. I rather watch paint dry. Is he really going to make us much better? If he goes on a brief hot streak, how long can he sustain it? How soon will he come down to earth. My grandmother would be more fun to watch and she's been dead for several years. I want to see every minor leaguer pitch in the spot that Brasier will pitch. I rather go get my teeth pulled. Ugh.

Unfortunately we'll have to take a risk financially. Short term deal, say 3 year $105M to get Verlander? I don't want to give up any prospects. Verlander Sale Eovaldi (sounds like he's coming back our way) Pivetta Bello Whitlock Paxton Then focus on extending Devers.....let the new contract start in 2024.

I reiterate. Unless Bloom signs some mega star out of left field, I will never trust what he says. "WE WILL BE MUCH BETTER" he told Kike. Bringing back Beni is not making us much better. Dumpster diving has its place but you also need a major star power at the top. Find me an ACE. Then we can talk.

Signed with the White Sox....sorry. My text is not coming up when I go edit.