harmony

Are the Red Sox still paying Matt Andriese, whom the Sox released last week after signing the righthander in January to a one-year, $2.1 million contract with a team option for 2022? The Seattle Mariners reportedly have signed Andriese to an MLB contract: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/08/mariners-sign-matt-andriese-to-major-league-deal.html#comments

What players should the Red Sox pursue and what contract should the Sox offer in terms of money and years? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2021-22-mlb-free-agents.html

The Red Sox are fortunate to have Chaim Bloom at the helm regardless of whether the Sox secure a postseason berth this year. Unadulterated, unquantified opinion.

And SEA crept to within 2.5 games of the Red Sox (although the Mariners probably aren't a threat to any team). At least not this year. Nevertheless, the September three-game series in Seattle could be meaningful.

Mike Greenwell was batting eighth in the Red Sox lineup that evening: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA199609020.shtml The winning pitcher for the Red Sox was none other than Heathcliff Slocumb. Seattle fans would not be surprised that Bobby Ayala and Norm Charlton each had a blown save.

Citing records against teams above and below .500 is less meaningful if the opponents' records are influenced by the unbalanced schedule that gives the AL East the easier interleague schedule. The NL West has a 43-33 (.566) record against the AL West, which has a 71-64 (.526) record against the AL East, which in turn has a 50-27 (.649) record against the NL East. Those significant differences suggest that the AL East's interleague records would be far worse if the AL East played the NL West (and the AL West would have a better interleague record against the NL East).

The unbalanced schedule gives the Red Sox a disproportionate number of games against the AL East clubs that are more likely to be above .500 playing interleague games against the weaker NL East. The unbalanced schedule gives the Athletics a disproportionate number of games against the AL West clubs that are less likely to be above .500 playing interleague games against the stronger NL West. The Red Sox are 11-16 (.407) against AL West teams and AL East clubs are a combined 64-71 (.474) against AL West teams. Indeed the unbalanced schedule gives the Red Sox the edge over the Athletics in the Wild Card race.

Oakland has the misfortune of playing its interleague games against the powerful NL West (against whom AL West teams have a 33-44 .429) record) while the Red Sox play its interleague games against the weaker NL East (against whom the AL East teams have a 60-27 .690 record). The unbalanced schedule gives the Red Sox the edge over the Athletics in the Wild Card race.

Shawn Armstrong and Freddy Galvis: https://birdswatcher.com/2021/07/30/baltimore-orioles-mlb-trade-deadline/

The timing of the Kendall Graveman trade was unfortunate coming only hours after the Mariners' dramatic comeback win against perhaps the league's strongest club in the Houston Astros. However, Rafael Montero, whom the Mariners wanted to include in the deal, had been designated for assignment and would have become a free agent the following day. That forced the hand of Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto. The initial clubhouse reaction was overwhelmingly negative. If nothing else the outrage demonstrated the players' loyalty to their teammates. The clubhouse has regrouped after stepping back to view Seattle's overall transactions in the deadline week. For two months of Graveman (and a year and two months of Montero), the Mariners received four years of 24-year-old switch-hitting infielder Abraham Toro, who has posted a .373/.458/.647/1.105 line in 14 games with the Mariners, and two months of veteran reliever Joe Smith, who is unscored upon in six appearances with the Mariners. Seattle then acquired three years and two months of established closer Diego Castillo (and earlier supplemented its depleted rotation with rental pitcher Tyler Anderson). The previously lucky Mariners were due for regression with or without Kendall Graveman. Seattle's 5-7 record since the deadline includes six one-run losses and one two-run loss. The M's have outscored opponents 48-41 over that 12-game span. The Seattle clubhouse has likely recovered from the initial disappointment of the Graveman trade.

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20000-A-Realistic-View-at-2021-Part-II?p=1390878&viewfull=1#post1390878

Luck indeed plays a role as evidenced by the Seattle Mariners' current 57-50 record with a negative 50 run differential. Meanwhile the Red Sox have a respectable positive run differential of 48. But the power rests in the West. In a current five-day period I will see two interleague games involving four West teams -- Houston, San Francisco, San Diego and Oakland -- with a combined positive run differential of 416 ... and that does not include the Los Angeles Dodgers' MLB-best run differential of 165.

Perhaps the Red Sox did not want to trade an asset more valuable than Aldo Ramirez.

FWIW the sample size for the AL West's 64-57 record against the AL East is larger than the sample size for the current Red Sox record of 63-44. Perhaps the smaller sample carries less significance. Or not.

With Monday's win over the Tampa Bay Rays, the 57-50 (.533) Seattle Mariners move to 14-8 (.636) against AL East teams while AL West teams improve to 64-57 (.529) against AL East teams.

Red Sox fans presumably are cheering the Seattle Mariners this week: MLB Gameday: Mariners 8, Rays 2 Final Score (08/02/2021) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Mariners vs. Rays at Tropicana Field ... as the M's face the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankess on the road.

Shouldn't a year and two months of a $100 million player command a greater trade return than distant pitching prospect Aldo Ramirez? As a free agent in January, Schwarber signed a contract that guaranteed him only $10 million for one year. Schwarber's 61-game hot streak this season has not upped the ante to $100 million.

Eight months ago today the Chicago Cubs non-tendered Kyle Schwarber instead of entering arbitration with his projected 2021 salary in the $7 million to $9.3 million range. Has Schwarber's value changed much after just 72 games this season?

The Red Sox need Kyle Schwarber's bat from June of this year but not his bat from April this year: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=schwaky01&year=2021&t=b Schwarber's performance in this season's anticipated short stint with the Red Sox could impact the streaky player's value going forward.

Kyle Schwarber can probably exercise the $11.5 million option for 2022. The Red Sox can then decline and pay a $3 million buyout. If Schwarber declines his end of the mutual option, the Red Sox presumably would owe nothing. Or not. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/

Bingo!

The Red Sox need to get past the American League favorites before worrying about the Dodgers and Padres: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-mlb-predictions/ https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Perhaps 30 general managers "are knocking on Porcello’s door" but the righthander's asking price is too high or his list of destinations is too short. Or not.

The start has been delayed in Portland: https://www.milb.com/gameday/senators-vs-sea-dogs/2021/07/25/645586#game_state=preview,game_tab=,game=645586

ZiPS projects Tanner Houck with 2022 and 2023 WAR of 0.6 annually in the righthander's age 26 and age 27 seasons: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tanner-houck/19879/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections The 25-year-old Houck, who has never been a Top 100 prospect, has posted an ERA of 4.14 in 270 minor league innings. Through his age 25 season Rick Porcello had posted an ERA of 4.30 in 1,073 MLB innings.