harmony

At what point does Triston Casas make his MLB debut? Casas is 44 days older today than Seattle outfielder Jarred Kelenic was when the latter made his MLB debut on May 13, 2021. Casas has played nine of his 208 minor league games at the Triple A level. When he made his MLB debut Kelenic had played six of his 179 minor league games at the Triple A level (although Kelenic was later sent down for another 24 games with Tacoma). In 2021 Casas posted a wRC+ of 142 in 77 games at Double A and a wRC+ 0f 130 in nine games at Triple A. In 2019 Kelenic posted a wRC+ of 133 in 21 games at Double A and in 2021 posted a wRC+ of 143 in 30 games at Triple A. Kelenic posted a dreadful .151/.236/.272/.507 line in his first 64 MLB games before posting a .248/.331/.524/.854 line in his final 29 games. Fielding metrics and the naked eye gave his outfield defense negative marks. Steamer projects Casas with a 2022 WAR of 0.3 and wRC+ of 110 in 32 games (.258/.337/.450/.787) while projecting Kelenic with a 2022 WAR of 1.6 and a wRC+ of 103 in 131 games (.232/.307/.424/.731). ZiPS has not released its 2022 Red Sox projections but projects Kelenic with a 2022 WAR of 1.1 and OPS+ of 101 (.229/.297/.432/.729). Marcel offers no projection for Casas but projects Kelenic with a 2022 line of .211/.293/.382/.675 in 389 plate appearances. Casas and Kelenic are lefthanded hitters taken out of high school with the 26th and sixth picks of the 2018 MLB draft. Their development should be interesting to follow.

But those teams would have less money to spend later when the club is ready to contend. The expired CBA had an incremental three-year luxury-tax calculation that impacted only the biggest spenders.

Any payroll floor should be calculated over a minimum of five seasons. We all know the person who lives paycheck-to-paycheck instead of saving for the future. A requirement that a team spend each year to meet its revenues -- from revenue sharing or otherwise -- may preclude the club from saving for future big-ticket expenditures when the franchise is ready to contend. A required minimum payroll each season would run the danger of relegating lower-budget teams to perennial mediocrity. Or not.

FanGraphs Prospects Report assigns Alex Binelas and David Hamilton a modest Future Value of 40+ each after Binelas was drafted in the 35th round in 2018 and Hamilton in the eighth round in 2019. SoxProspects rank Binelas 18th and Hamilton 26th in the Red Sox farm system. MLB Prospect Watch ranks Binelas 16th in the system while Hamiton fails to make the Top 30. Analytics somewhere have assigned a dollar value.

To clear payroll space, would the Red Sox trade Jackie Bradley Jr. and, say, $8 million, for a nominal return and then pursue a higher-end outfielder via trade or free agency?

MassLive beat reporter Chris Cotillo examines the Red Sox bullpen: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/12/boston-red-sox-roster-analysis-bullpen-a-big-part-of-chaim-blooms-to-do-list-when-lockout-ends-garrett-whitlock-matt-barnes-look-like-keys-among-internal-options.html

Playing for the Seattle Mariners. Or not.

On Monday columnist Jim Bowden at The Athletic gave the Red Sox an early offseason grade of B: https://theathletic.com/3009948/2021/12/13/early-offseason-grades-for-every-american-league-team-rangers-tigers-mariners-on-their-way-to-as/ Subscription required but here is one fair-use quote: "I expect the Red Sox to make one splash signing this offseason, and I’m hoping it’s shortstop Carlos Correa, who has a great relationship with Cora."

FWIW their 2021 salaries: McCutchen $20 million Iglesias $3.5 million Givens $4.05 million Ottavino $9 million McHugh $0

That problem is not limited to the sports media. Good points.

Out of curiosity: Who are your reliable sources? Sean McAdams reported that a "major league source" said the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays were the most aggressive in pursuit of Seiya Suzuki. What is a "major league source"? More importantly, who would be in the best position to say what teams have been most aggressive? A source with the league? Or the player's agent, reportedly Joel Wolfe? Absent collusion, a source with the league would be less reliable. The agent would know the suitors. If an agent tells a team executive that the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays are aggressive, does that team executive become a "major league source" who is reliable? What would be the agent's motivation in making that claim? What would be the baseball executive's motivation is passing that comment on to a beat reporter such as Sean McAdams? During the lockout the baseball media are scrambling for "hits" on their websites and the information shared may be even less than reliable than usual. Or not.

And no new news on the Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays (only a link to the old anonymous speculation).

The latest on Seiya Suzuki reported at MLB Trade Rumors: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/rangers-rumors-seiya-suzuki-japan-outfielder-free-agent.html According to reports, Suzuki apparently has met only virtually so far with MLB teams.

Less reliable than Sean McAdams' unidentified "one major league source" who reportedly said the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox were the most aggressive suitors for Seiya Suzuki? https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2021/12/04/making-sense-of-flurry-of-sox-moves-before-lockout As of December 9 the market reportedly had not narrowed: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2021/12/9/22825267/mlb-free-agent-seiya-suzuki-powerful-outfielder-japan-high-demand Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto is a rare source who has spoken on the record, saying the Mariners met with Suzuki via Zoom: Jerry Dipoto says Mariners met with Seiya Suzuki WWW.MLB.COM SEATTLE -- Beyond introducing his new ace in front of the bright lights and finalizing a four-year contract extension with a promising reliever on Wednesday, Jerry Dipoto held court with reporters at T-Mobile Park to discuss a variety of topics ahead of the 8:59 p.m. PT expiration of the Collective The tone of the quote was not optimistic but this would not be the first time the Mariners landed a premier 27-year-old outfielder named Suzuki coming off nine stellar seasons in Japan. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=suzuki001ich

Nearly three weeks ago MLB Network insider Jon Heyman reported that "nearly every West Coast team is in on the Japanese star." Seiya Suzuki rumors WWW.MLB.COM MLB.com is keeping track of all the latest news and rumors surrounding Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who is available to Major League Baseball clubs via the posting process. The Mets were the only East Coast team mentioned in that Seiya Suzuki roundup posted at MLB.com on December 1.

Hometown bias noted, but one poster would not trade Seattle center fielder Taylor Trammell for Jarren Duran, who is a year older than Trammell. Trammell and Duran had disappointing MLB debuts this year, although Duran was more disappointing. JD 112 PA, .215/.241/.336/.578, 51 OPS+, -0.7 bWAR, -0.5 fWAR TT 178 PA, .160/.256/.359/.615, 71 OPS+, -0.3 bWAR, -0.1 fWAR In small samples, Duran was the clearly inferior defensive center fielder with -5 Defensive Runs Saved and -28.8 UZR/150 in 215 innings while Trammell posted 0 DRS and 0.1 UZR/150 in 312.2 innings. Each enjoyed some success hitting at Triple A this year, although Duran had the edge: JD 283 PA, .258/.357/.516/.873, 132 wRC+ TT 323 PA, .263/.362/.456/.818, 104 wRC+ The FanGraphs Prospect Report has curious values for the two 2021 Graduates: JD Hit 45/55, Game Power 30/35, Raw Power 45/45, Speed 70/70, Field 35/40, FV 50 TT Hit 40/45, Game Power 40/50, Raw Power 55/55, Speed 70/70, Field 60/70, FV 45 Duran's Game Power rating may be low but the other values do not seem to support the ultimate Future Values (FV). Steamer projects 2022 WAR of 0.8 in 115 games for Duran and 0.1 in 21 games for Trammell. Duran and Trammell played in the 2019 Futures Game (Trammell's second) but Duran entered Top 100 prospect lists only this year. MLB.com currently ranks Duran at No. 25. Trammell lost his prospect status in 2021 after entering the season at the 100th-ranked prospect at MLB.com and 72nd-ranked prospect at Baseball Prospectus. In 2019 Trammell ranked No. 16 at MLB.com and No. 11 at BP. Duran and Trammell each have six years of team control. Baseball Trade Values assigns median surplus trade values of $20.1 million for Duran and $5.1 million for Trammell. Perhaps each is destined to be a "classic 4A ballplayer, a Triple A star." Or not.

Valid point re compensation but the Ivy League law graduate (and the Barney alum) are free to seek employment anywhere in any jursidiction where they are licensed.

Even anonymous failed to report that "the Sox are one of three teams still in on Suzuki..."

To be precise, in paraphrasing an anonymous "major league source," a Boston beat reporter wrote that the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees "have been the most aggressive in pursuit of Suzuki." https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2021/12/04/making-sense-of-flurry-of-sox-moves-before-lockout Four days ago MLB Network insider Jon Heyman did not list an AL East team among the clubs "in the mix" for Suzuki: Seiya Suzuki rumors WWW.MLB.COM MLB.com is keeping track of all the latest news and rumors surrounding Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who is available to Major League Baseball clubs via the posting process.

With the exception of the small percentage who reach free agency, the player is not free to bargain with any team (and teams are not free to bargain with any player).

The analogy would be the person with a specialized skill -- let's say a physician leaving residency* -- being limited to a single employer in health care. Sure, the physician instead could choose to work as a Lyft driver. That's not bare bones capitalism. * although medical school students face similar restrictions on Match Day when residency assignments are announced

In bare bones capitalism prospective employers and prospective employees are free to negotiate with whomever they wish for that exchange of wages and services. In that respect, MLB does not fit the bill.

One could argue that none of the Red Sox transactions thus far this season would have seemed realistic (or at least likely) in October.

But this thread is supposed to be realistic.

FWIW Roster Resource currently lists Garrett Whitlock as the Red Sox closer with a six-man rotation of Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Rich Hill, Michael Wacha and Tanner Houck: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox