harmony

Over the Monster columnist Matt Collins examines Lou Trivino as a potential trade target: https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/1/5/22867324/red-sox-trade-rumors-targets-athletics-lou-trivino An A's blogger writes about Lou Trivino as a trade candidate: https://whitecleatbeat.com/2022/01/02/lou-trivino-large-trade-market-oakland/

Nick Wittgren, like Lou Trivino a 30-year-old righthanded reliever, cleared waivers despite a projected 2022 salary of $2.8 million and projected 2022 WAR of 0.2: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nick-wittgren/15594/stats?position=P https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/nick-wittgren-cam-hill-elect-free-agency-guardians.html Some team might claim Trivino off waivers but that club would not likely be the Seattle Mariners.

Lou Trivino could be an asset in a needy Red Sox bullpen but the 30-year-old righthander would slot only into the back end of the Seattle bullpen. Steamer projects Trivino with a 2022 WAR of 0.0 in 71 appearances while MLB Trade Rumors projects a $2.9 million salary. Even with significant regression from the overperforming Seattle bullpen, here are the 2022 projections for Mariner relievers: Ken Giles $5.25 million, 0.3 WAR in 54 appearances (1.8 fWAR in 2019) Diego Castillo $2.6 million, 0.6 WAR in 61 appearances (0.7 fWAR in 2021) Drew Steckenrider $2.1 million, 0.1 WAR in 66 appearances (1.3 fWAR in 2021) Paul Sewald $1.8 million, 0.5 WAR in 67 appearances (1.4 fWAR in 2021) Casey Sadler, $1.3 million, 0.4 WAR in 60 appearances (1.1 fWAR in 2021) Anthony Misiewicz, league minimum, 0.3 WAR in 58 appearances (0.5 fWAR in 2021) Andres Munoz, $750,000, 0.5 WAR in 46 appearances The Mariners would likely let Trivino, with his projected 0.0 WAR and $2.9 million salary, pass through waivers to a needier franchise.

It's the nature of the arbitation system. The Seattle Mariners are unlikely to pay a $2.9 million annual salary to a backend reliever.

ZiPS has released its 2022 projections for the Red Sox: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

Perhaps ... Lou Trivino is the same age Casey Sadler was when the Mariners claimed Sadler off waivers in September 2020. Sadler finished the 2021 season with 29 consecutive scoreless outings and an ERA of 0.67 in 42 appearances overall. Trivino's projected 2022 salary of $2.9 million would be the second highest in the Seattle bullpen behind Ken Giles, who a year ago signed a two-year, $7 million contract with the Mariners coming off Tommy John surgery. FWIW in 25 career appearances against Seattle, Trivino has a 1-4 record, 4.50 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with 11 walks in 22 innings. FWIW last August I left Oakland's RingCentral Coliseum after the ninth inning before Trivino posted a win against the San Diego Padres: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK202108040.shtml

The Seattle bullpen is fine without Lou Trivino: RP Drew Steckenrider ® (2021 bWAR 2.5) RP Casey Sadler ® (2021 bWAR 2.1) RP Paul Sewald ® (2021 bWAR 1.6) RP Diego Castillo ® (2021 bWAR 1.1) RP Ken Giles ® (2019 bWAR 2.5) RP Andres Munoz ® RP Anthony Misiewicz (L) https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=11&lg=all&players=0 If anything, the Mariners might look to trade high on some relievers from a loaded bullpen.

MLB Trade Rumors offers its analysis of the current Red Sox situation: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/red-sox-have-the-flexibility-to-pursue-an-impact-move-coming-out-of-the-lockout.html#comments

MLB Trade Rumors examines the trade value of Oakland reliever Lou Trivino: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/the-as-top-bullpen-trade-candidate.html Steamer projects Trivino with a 2022 ERA of 4.21 and a WAR of 0.0 in 65 appearances: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/lou-trivino/15043/stats?position=P

An outfield of Seiya Suzuki, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Alex Verdugo should not require a platoon. Of course the Red Sox would need to beat out the competition for Suzuki.

Will the Red Sox platoon Jackie Bradley Jr. in 2022 with his price tag of $17.5 million?

The response of the trade partner that gets stuck with Jackie Bradley Jr.'s contract. Randal Grichuk is no coveted prize but Chaim Bloom reportedly is in the market for a righthanded bat: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/bloom-red-sox-will-seek-bullpen-help-right-handed-bat.html

Perhaps only the league- and park-adjusted wRC+. Baseball executives certainly don't dismiss traditional minor league stats altogether.

No one wants another Jarren Duran comp with a Seattle player (after suffering the Taylor Trammell comp), but here goes ... Jarred Duran and Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh were drafted out of major college programs in the seventh and third rounds of the 2018 MLB draft. Duran is about four months older than Raleigh. Duran and Raleigh had disappointing debuts last year after tearing up Triple A pitching. Here are their 2021 MLB lines: JD 112 PA, .215/.241/.336/.578, 40 K, 4 BB, OPS+ 51, wRC+ 49 CR 148 PA, .180/.223/.309/.532, 52 K, 7 BB, OPS+ 48, wRC+ 47 ... and their 2021 lines at Triple A: JD 283 PA, .258/.357/.516/.873, 66 K, 30 BB, wRC+ 132 CR 199 PA, .324/.377/.608/.985, 25 K, 14 BB, wRC+ 136 Steamer projects 2022 WAR of 0.8 in 115 games for Duran and 1.5 in 66 games for Raleigh. Baseball Trade Values assigns median surplus values of $20.1 million for Duran and $18.8 million for Raleigh. The development of Duran and Raleigh should be interesting to follow.

Indeed it's a swap of bad contracts. FWIW Steamer projects Jackie Bradley Jr. with a 2022 WAR of 0.4 in 91 games, the righthand-hitting Randal Grichuk with a 2022 WAR of 0.9 in 119 games and Hunter Renfroe with a 2022 WAR of 1.2 in 133 games. Bradley remains under team control for one year with an AAV of $12 million while Grichuk is under team control for two seasons with an AAV of $10.4 million. Bradley is 16 months older than Grichuk who is about five months older than Renfroe. The Red Sox would essentially replace Renfroe with Grichuk while adding Alex Binelas, David Hamiton and righthander Matt Festa (a former Seattle minor league pitcher of the year who has posted a 3.10 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 4.70 K/BB in 235 minor league innings).

Would anyone trade Jackie Bradley Jr. for Toronto outfielder Randal Grichuk and Seattle reliever Matt Festa? https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-68144/ ;)

Props to the Red Sox farm system: Most improved farm systems 2021 WWW.MLB.COM Twice a year, MLB Pipeline ranks all 30 farm systems in baseball. It was top 10 for a number of years, expanded to 15 in 2019 and then stretched to incorporate every organization in 2020. The first one comes before the season starts and it’s followed up by a re-rank

Does that plan include beefing up the Red Sox bullpen? Or is the bullpen set?

Analytical evidence has some predictive value. Anecdotal evidence, such as a comparison of Triston Casas and Jarred Kelenic, is offered for entertainment value only.

At what point does Triston Casas make his MLB debut? Casas is 44 days older today than Seattle outfielder Jarred Kelenic was when the latter made his MLB debut on May 13, 2021. Casas has played nine of his 208 minor league games at the Triple A level. When he made his MLB debut Kelenic had played six of his 179 minor league games at the Triple A level (although Kelenic was later sent down for another 24 games with Tacoma). In 2021 Casas posted a wRC+ of 142 in 77 games at Double A and a wRC+ 0f 130 in nine games at Triple A. In 2019 Kelenic posted a wRC+ of 133 in 21 games at Double A and in 2021 posted a wRC+ of 143 in 30 games at Triple A. Kelenic posted a dreadful .151/.236/.272/.507 line in his first 64 MLB games before posting a .248/.331/.524/.854 line in his final 29 games. Fielding metrics and the naked eye gave his outfield defense negative marks. Steamer projects Casas with a 2022 WAR of 0.3 and wRC+ of 110 in 32 games (.258/.337/.450/.787) while projecting Kelenic with a 2022 WAR of 1.6 and a wRC+ of 103 in 131 games (.232/.307/.424/.731). ZiPS has not released its 2022 Red Sox projections but projects Kelenic with a 2022 WAR of 1.1 and OPS+ of 101 (.229/.297/.432/.729). Marcel offers no projection for Casas but projects Kelenic with a 2022 line of .211/.293/.382/.675 in 389 plate appearances. Casas and Kelenic are lefthanded hitters taken out of high school with the 26th and sixth picks of the 2018 MLB draft. Their development should be interesting to follow.

But those teams would have less money to spend later when the club is ready to contend. The expired CBA had an incremental three-year luxury-tax calculation that impacted only the biggest spenders.

Any payroll floor should be calculated over a minimum of five seasons. We all know the person who lives paycheck-to-paycheck instead of saving for the future. A requirement that a team spend each year to meet its revenues -- from revenue sharing or otherwise -- may preclude the club from saving for future big-ticket expenditures when the franchise is ready to contend. A required minimum payroll each season would run the danger of relegating lower-budget teams to perennial mediocrity. Or not.

FanGraphs Prospects Report assigns Alex Binelas and David Hamilton a modest Future Value of 40+ each after Binelas was drafted in the 35th round in 2018 and Hamilton in the eighth round in 2019. SoxProspects rank Binelas 18th and Hamilton 26th in the Red Sox farm system. MLB Prospect Watch ranks Binelas 16th in the system while Hamiton fails to make the Top 30. Analytics somewhere have assigned a dollar value.

To clear payroll space, would the Red Sox trade Jackie Bradley Jr. and, say, $8 million, for a nominal return and then pursue a higher-end outfielder via trade or free agency?

MassLive beat reporter Chris Cotillo examines the Red Sox bullpen: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/12/boston-red-sox-roster-analysis-bullpen-a-big-part-of-chaim-blooms-to-do-list-when-lockout-ends-garrett-whitlock-matt-barnes-look-like-keys-among-internal-options.html