harmony

It's confirmation that the Seattle Mariners don't need Lou Trivino. Teams need to identify under-the-radar relievers and then utilize advanced metrics to deploy those relievers properly. Last season the Mariners got a combined 6.2 bWAR (3.8 fWAR) from three relievers -- Casey Sadler, Drew Steckenrider and Paul Sewald -- who were acquired via a waiver claim in September 2020 and as two non-roster invitees in the 2020-21 offseason. In a recent interview with MLB Trade Rumors, Sewald discussed the defined roles of the relievers: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/live-chat-with-mariners-reliever-paul-sewald-12167.html Roles were not defined by inning but by the 1) precise matchups and 2) leverage situation. Seattle got the most from three relievers rescued from the scrap heap by using each reliever only in situations in which each reliever was most likely to succeed. Analytics had more to do with the transformation than any adjustment in mechanics. The succcess led to a 33-19 record in one-run games en route to 90 wins despite a negative 51 run differential. Most projections point to significant regression in 2022 although the Seattle bullpen is expected to add Ken Giles and Andres Munoz. The Mariners would likely pass on Lou Trivino.

ZiPS has issued its 2022 WAR projections for the Oakland Athletics, including a projected 0.2 WAR for Lou Trivino, indeed an improvement over Steamer's 2022 projection of 0.0 WAR for Trivino: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-oakland-athletics/

I can remember when only marquee college football games were televised. The first football game I had attended in years was a mundane matchup last October. The frequent commmercial breaks and resulting dead time made the game almost unbearably boring.

Jon Lester and Tim Lincecum, his high school rival from the Seattle area, had their peak years in 2008 and 2009 when Lester posted 6.1 and 6.2 bWAR while Lincecum posted 7.8 and 7.4 bWAR. Of course, Lester had the longer career, finishing with 44.3 bWAR to Lincecum's 19.9 bWAR.

Apparently minor league wRC+ is league-adjusted but not park-adjusted. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ben-clemens-fangraphs-chat-1-10-22/ Scroll down. Without a park adjustment, did Jarren Duran get a wRC+ boost playing his home games at Worcester's Polar Park?

Once in London I tried to attend a match in The Ashes, the famed cricket series between Australia and Great Britain, but the scalpers would not come down to this cheapskate's prices.

According to one source, football (soccer) worldwide has seven times as many fans as baseball has: https://sportsbrowser.net/most-popular-sports/ Even cricket has five times as many fans as baseball. This Portland resident could never envision Major League Baseball competing with soccer in the Rose City.

That is one factor as the Seattle Sounders or Portland Timbers have represented the Western Conference in the MLS Cup the past seven seasons while outdrawing the Seattle Mariners in per-game attendance most years.

In their shared seasons Major League Baseball already takes a back seat to Major League Soccer in the Pacific Northwest.

Depends on the translation: Koji: "You're going to Boston, right?" Seiya: "No ... I don't know about Boston ..." https://twitter.com/baseballcosmo/status/1479633266177376256?s=20

A clip from a Koji Uehara interview with Seiya Suzuki: https://twitter.com/baseballcosmo/status/1479633266177376256?s=20

Be a member of the 2022 Red Sox team: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-boston-red-sox-major-league-strategic-information-assistant/

Steamer is offered because it is one of the more recognized publically available projection services. Of the top projection services, only Steamer to date has offered WAR projections for Oakland players. Other projections are welcome. FWIW Lou Trivino may be the flip side of Michael Wacha in terms of their progression in the 2021 season. In 16 innings over his final 16 appearances, Trivino posted an 8.44 ERA (but 4.30 FIP) with a line of .292/.387/.446/.833. Over the same period Wacha posted a 2.88 ERA (3.28 FIP) with a line of .167/.217/.300/.517 in seven appearances, including six starts, covering 34.1 innings.

The 0.0 WAR projection for 2022 and the projected $1.1 million surplus value over three seasons are inconsistent. One or both are off; they can't both be accurate. WAR projections should be gathered from multiple sources, including ZiPS, but among publicly available services only Steamer has provided 2022 projections for the Oakland Athletics. The ZiPS and other projections are eagerly awaited. Each franchise likely has its own proprietary evaluation system, leaving the casual fan with the publicly available projections. Steamer | Glossary | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball sZymborski Projection System (ZiPS) | Glossary | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/marcels.shtml https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota-projections/

The problem with Baseball Trade Values is the volatility of valuations on individual players. The values can vary widely week to week. BTV obviously (and appropriately) gathers projections from multiple sources. Steamer's 2022 projection of 0.0 WAR for Lou Trivino alone should not produce a median surplus value of $1.1 million. Even that surplus value works out to less than $400,000 annually over Trivino's three remaining years of team control. Nevertheless BTV is an entertaining website.

The free agent market is filled with available relievers. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-position__sort_direction-0 So far the market has yielded minor league contracts to, among others, Darren O'Day (projected 2022 WAR of 0.1 in 26 games) and Jacob Barnes (projected 2022 WAR of 0.1 in 34 games). Milwaukee signed a $600,000 contract with Trevor Gott, who is projected to post 0.2 WAR in 54 games. Where does Lou Trivino's $2.9 million projected salary and 0.0 projected WAR fit in that market? We await Trivino's 2022 projection from ZiPS, which has yet to release its Oakland forecast.

The Mariners, Red Sox and all other teams passed on Nick Wittgren, another 30-year-old righthander who since the start of the 2018 season had posted a 3.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and and ERA+ of 119. Over the same period Lou Trivino posted a 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and an ERA+ of 113. Wittgren was projected with a 2022 salary of $2.8 million and a 0.2 WAR while Trivino is projected with a 2022 salary of $2.9 million and a 0.0 WAR. Steamer projects 19 Seattle pitchers with 2022 WAR above Trivino's projected 0.0 WAR, including 11 certain relievers. The list of Seattle relievers projected to match Trivino's 0.0 WAR fills pages: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=11&lg=all&players=0 The A's blogger noted Trivino's "disastrous three week stretch in August that doomed the A’s playoff hopes." https://whitecleatbeat.com/2022/01/02/lou-trivino-large-trade-market-oakland/ In a cold, dark offseason a baseball fan can become obsessed with a targeted player. Trivino might help a thin bullpen but many teams would pass on Trivino with his $2.9 million projected salary and 0.0 projected WAR.

Someone cared enough to respond. Have a blessed day.

Over the Monster columnist Matt Collins examines Lou Trivino as a potential trade target: https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/1/5/22867324/red-sox-trade-rumors-targets-athletics-lou-trivino An A's blogger writes about Lou Trivino as a trade candidate: https://whitecleatbeat.com/2022/01/02/lou-trivino-large-trade-market-oakland/

Nick Wittgren, like Lou Trivino a 30-year-old righthanded reliever, cleared waivers despite a projected 2022 salary of $2.8 million and projected 2022 WAR of 0.2: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nick-wittgren/15594/stats?position=P https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/nick-wittgren-cam-hill-elect-free-agency-guardians.html Some team might claim Trivino off waivers but that club would not likely be the Seattle Mariners.

Lou Trivino could be an asset in a needy Red Sox bullpen but the 30-year-old righthander would slot only into the back end of the Seattle bullpen. Steamer projects Trivino with a 2022 WAR of 0.0 in 71 appearances while MLB Trade Rumors projects a $2.9 million salary. Even with significant regression from the overperforming Seattle bullpen, here are the 2022 projections for Mariner relievers: Ken Giles $5.25 million, 0.3 WAR in 54 appearances (1.8 fWAR in 2019) Diego Castillo $2.6 million, 0.6 WAR in 61 appearances (0.7 fWAR in 2021) Drew Steckenrider $2.1 million, 0.1 WAR in 66 appearances (1.3 fWAR in 2021) Paul Sewald $1.8 million, 0.5 WAR in 67 appearances (1.4 fWAR in 2021) Casey Sadler, $1.3 million, 0.4 WAR in 60 appearances (1.1 fWAR in 2021) Anthony Misiewicz, league minimum, 0.3 WAR in 58 appearances (0.5 fWAR in 2021) Andres Munoz, $750,000, 0.5 WAR in 46 appearances The Mariners would likely let Trivino, with his projected 0.0 WAR and $2.9 million salary, pass through waivers to a needier franchise.

It's the nature of the arbitation system. The Seattle Mariners are unlikely to pay a $2.9 million annual salary to a backend reliever.

ZiPS has released its 2022 projections for the Red Sox: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

Perhaps ... Lou Trivino is the same age Casey Sadler was when the Mariners claimed Sadler off waivers in September 2020. Sadler finished the 2021 season with 29 consecutive scoreless outings and an ERA of 0.67 in 42 appearances overall. Trivino's projected 2022 salary of $2.9 million would be the second highest in the Seattle bullpen behind Ken Giles, who a year ago signed a two-year, $7 million contract with the Mariners coming off Tommy John surgery. FWIW in 25 career appearances against Seattle, Trivino has a 1-4 record, 4.50 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with 11 walks in 22 innings. FWIW last August I left Oakland's RingCentral Coliseum after the ninth inning before Trivino posted a win against the San Diego Padres: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK202108040.shtml

The Seattle bullpen is fine without Lou Trivino: RP Drew Steckenrider ® (2021 bWAR 2.5) RP Casey Sadler ® (2021 bWAR 2.1) RP Paul Sewald ® (2021 bWAR 1.6) RP Diego Castillo ® (2021 bWAR 1.1) RP Ken Giles ® (2019 bWAR 2.5) RP Andres Munoz ® RP Anthony Misiewicz (L) https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=11&lg=all&players=0 If anything, the Mariners might look to trade high on some relievers from a loaded bullpen.