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Steamer is offered because it is one of the more recognized publically available projection services. Of the top projection services, only Steamer to date has offered WAR projections for Oakland players. Other projections are welcome. FWIW Lou Trivino may be the flip side of Michael Wacha in terms of their progression in the 2021 season. In 16 innings over his final 16 appearances, Trivino posted an 8.44 ERA (but 4.30 FIP) with a line of .292/.387/.446/.833. Over the same period Wacha posted a 2.88 ERA (3.28 FIP) with a line of .167/.217/.300/.517 in seven appearances, including six starts, covering 34.1 innings.

The 0.0 WAR projection for 2022 and the projected $1.1 million surplus value over three seasons are inconsistent. One or both are off; they can't both be accurate. WAR projections should be gathered from multiple sources, including ZiPS, but among publicly available services only Steamer has provided 2022 projections for the Oakland Athletics. The ZiPS and other projections are eagerly awaited. Each franchise likely has its own proprietary evaluation system, leaving the casual fan with the publicly available projections. Steamer | Glossary | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball sZymborski Projection System (ZiPS) | Glossary | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/marcels.shtml https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota-projections/

The problem with Baseball Trade Values is the volatility of valuations on individual players. The values can vary widely week to week. BTV obviously (and appropriately) gathers projections from multiple sources. Steamer's 2022 projection of 0.0 WAR for Lou Trivino alone should not produce a median surplus value of $1.1 million. Even that surplus value works out to less than $400,000 annually over Trivino's three remaining years of team control. Nevertheless BTV is an entertaining website.

The free agent market is filled with available relievers. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-position__sort_direction-0 So far the market has yielded minor league contracts to, among others, Darren O'Day (projected 2022 WAR of 0.1 in 26 games) and Jacob Barnes (projected 2022 WAR of 0.1 in 34 games). Milwaukee signed a $600,000 contract with Trevor Gott, who is projected to post 0.2 WAR in 54 games. Where does Lou Trivino's $2.9 million projected salary and 0.0 projected WAR fit in that market? We await Trivino's 2022 projection from ZiPS, which has yet to release its Oakland forecast.

The Mariners, Red Sox and all other teams passed on Nick Wittgren, another 30-year-old righthander who since the start of the 2018 season had posted a 3.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and and ERA+ of 119. Over the same period Lou Trivino posted a 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and an ERA+ of 113. Wittgren was projected with a 2022 salary of $2.8 million and a 0.2 WAR while Trivino is projected with a 2022 salary of $2.9 million and a 0.0 WAR. Steamer projects 19 Seattle pitchers with 2022 WAR above Trivino's projected 0.0 WAR, including 11 certain relievers. The list of Seattle relievers projected to match Trivino's 0.0 WAR fills pages: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=11&lg=all&players=0 The A's blogger noted Trivino's "disastrous three week stretch in August that doomed the A’s playoff hopes." https://whitecleatbeat.com/2022/01/02/lou-trivino-large-trade-market-oakland/ In a cold, dark offseason a baseball fan can become obsessed with a targeted player. Trivino might help a thin bullpen but many teams would pass on Trivino with his $2.9 million projected salary and 0.0 projected WAR.

Someone cared enough to respond. Have a blessed day.

Over the Monster columnist Matt Collins examines Lou Trivino as a potential trade target: https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/1/5/22867324/red-sox-trade-rumors-targets-athletics-lou-trivino An A's blogger writes about Lou Trivino as a trade candidate: https://whitecleatbeat.com/2022/01/02/lou-trivino-large-trade-market-oakland/

Nick Wittgren, like Lou Trivino a 30-year-old righthanded reliever, cleared waivers despite a projected 2022 salary of $2.8 million and projected 2022 WAR of 0.2: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nick-wittgren/15594/stats?position=P https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/nick-wittgren-cam-hill-elect-free-agency-guardians.html Some team might claim Trivino off waivers but that club would not likely be the Seattle Mariners.

Lou Trivino could be an asset in a needy Red Sox bullpen but the 30-year-old righthander would slot only into the back end of the Seattle bullpen. Steamer projects Trivino with a 2022 WAR of 0.0 in 71 appearances while MLB Trade Rumors projects a $2.9 million salary. Even with significant regression from the overperforming Seattle bullpen, here are the 2022 projections for Mariner relievers: Ken Giles $5.25 million, 0.3 WAR in 54 appearances (1.8 fWAR in 2019) Diego Castillo $2.6 million, 0.6 WAR in 61 appearances (0.7 fWAR in 2021) Drew Steckenrider $2.1 million, 0.1 WAR in 66 appearances (1.3 fWAR in 2021) Paul Sewald $1.8 million, 0.5 WAR in 67 appearances (1.4 fWAR in 2021) Casey Sadler, $1.3 million, 0.4 WAR in 60 appearances (1.1 fWAR in 2021) Anthony Misiewicz, league minimum, 0.3 WAR in 58 appearances (0.5 fWAR in 2021) Andres Munoz, $750,000, 0.5 WAR in 46 appearances The Mariners would likely let Trivino, with his projected 0.0 WAR and $2.9 million salary, pass through waivers to a needier franchise.

It's the nature of the arbitation system. The Seattle Mariners are unlikely to pay a $2.9 million annual salary to a backend reliever.

ZiPS has released its 2022 projections for the Red Sox: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

Perhaps ... Lou Trivino is the same age Casey Sadler was when the Mariners claimed Sadler off waivers in September 2020. Sadler finished the 2021 season with 29 consecutive scoreless outings and an ERA of 0.67 in 42 appearances overall. Trivino's projected 2022 salary of $2.9 million would be the second highest in the Seattle bullpen behind Ken Giles, who a year ago signed a two-year, $7 million contract with the Mariners coming off Tommy John surgery. FWIW in 25 career appearances against Seattle, Trivino has a 1-4 record, 4.50 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with 11 walks in 22 innings. FWIW last August I left Oakland's RingCentral Coliseum after the ninth inning before Trivino posted a win against the San Diego Padres: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK202108040.shtml

The Seattle bullpen is fine without Lou Trivino: RP Drew Steckenrider ® (2021 bWAR 2.5) RP Casey Sadler ® (2021 bWAR 2.1) RP Paul Sewald ® (2021 bWAR 1.6) RP Diego Castillo ® (2021 bWAR 1.1) RP Ken Giles ® (2019 bWAR 2.5) RP Andres Munoz ® RP Anthony Misiewicz (L) https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=11&lg=all&players=0 If anything, the Mariners might look to trade high on some relievers from a loaded bullpen.

MLB Trade Rumors offers its analysis of the current Red Sox situation: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/red-sox-have-the-flexibility-to-pursue-an-impact-move-coming-out-of-the-lockout.html#comments

MLB Trade Rumors examines the trade value of Oakland reliever Lou Trivino: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/the-as-top-bullpen-trade-candidate.html Steamer projects Trivino with a 2022 ERA of 4.21 and a WAR of 0.0 in 65 appearances: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/lou-trivino/15043/stats?position=P

An outfield of Seiya Suzuki, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Alex Verdugo should not require a platoon. Of course the Red Sox would need to beat out the competition for Suzuki.

Will the Red Sox platoon Jackie Bradley Jr. in 2022 with his price tag of $17.5 million?

The response of the trade partner that gets stuck with Jackie Bradley Jr.'s contract. Randal Grichuk is no coveted prize but Chaim Bloom reportedly is in the market for a righthanded bat: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/bloom-red-sox-will-seek-bullpen-help-right-handed-bat.html

Perhaps only the league- and park-adjusted wRC+. Baseball executives certainly don't dismiss traditional minor league stats altogether.

No one wants another Jarren Duran comp with a Seattle player (after suffering the Taylor Trammell comp), but here goes ... Jarred Duran and Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh were drafted out of major college programs in the seventh and third rounds of the 2018 MLB draft. Duran is about four months older than Raleigh. Duran and Raleigh had disappointing debuts last year after tearing up Triple A pitching. Here are their 2021 MLB lines: JD 112 PA, .215/.241/.336/.578, 40 K, 4 BB, OPS+ 51, wRC+ 49 CR 148 PA, .180/.223/.309/.532, 52 K, 7 BB, OPS+ 48, wRC+ 47 ... and their 2021 lines at Triple A: JD 283 PA, .258/.357/.516/.873, 66 K, 30 BB, wRC+ 132 CR 199 PA, .324/.377/.608/.985, 25 K, 14 BB, wRC+ 136 Steamer projects 2022 WAR of 0.8 in 115 games for Duran and 1.5 in 66 games for Raleigh. Baseball Trade Values assigns median surplus values of $20.1 million for Duran and $18.8 million for Raleigh. The development of Duran and Raleigh should be interesting to follow.

Indeed it's a swap of bad contracts. FWIW Steamer projects Jackie Bradley Jr. with a 2022 WAR of 0.4 in 91 games, the righthand-hitting Randal Grichuk with a 2022 WAR of 0.9 in 119 games and Hunter Renfroe with a 2022 WAR of 1.2 in 133 games. Bradley remains under team control for one year with an AAV of $12 million while Grichuk is under team control for two seasons with an AAV of $10.4 million. Bradley is 16 months older than Grichuk who is about five months older than Renfroe. The Red Sox would essentially replace Renfroe with Grichuk while adding Alex Binelas, David Hamiton and righthander Matt Festa (a former Seattle minor league pitcher of the year who has posted a 3.10 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 4.70 K/BB in 235 minor league innings).

Would anyone trade Jackie Bradley Jr. for Toronto outfielder Randal Grichuk and Seattle reliever Matt Festa? https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-68144/ ;)

Props to the Red Sox farm system: Most improved farm systems 2021 WWW.MLB.COM Twice a year, MLB Pipeline ranks all 30 farm systems in baseball. It was top 10 for a number of years, expanded to 15 in 2019 and then stretched to incorporate every organization in 2020. The first one comes before the season starts and it’s followed up by a re-rank

Does that plan include beefing up the Red Sox bullpen? Or is the bullpen set?

Analytical evidence has some predictive value. Anecdotal evidence, such as a comparison of Triston Casas and Jarred Kelenic, is offered for entertainment value only.