harmony

Join the 2022 Red Sox team: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-boston-red-sox-pro-scouting-assistant/

The Seattle Mariners may trade from their bullpen depth to address more pressing needs. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/mariners Or not.

Nor does the Seattle Mariners' postseason drought since 2001 but Red Sox fans are generous with their reminders.

The Athletic today posted a lengthy piece based on a recent interview with Seiya Suzuki: https://theathletic.com/3065621/2022/01/13/japanese-superstar-seiya-suzuki-is-determined-to-be-an-impact-player-in-the-major-leagues-now-he-just-has-to-pick-a-team/?source=emp_shared_article Subscription required, but here is a blurb:

Seattle was in third place seven games out of first place on July 27 when the Mariners traded well-regarded reliever Kendall Graveman (and Rafael Montero) to Houston for Abraham Toro and reliever Joe Smith (who outperformed Graveman the remainder of the season). Later that week the M's acquired Diego Castillo for JT Chargois, who outperformed Castillo the remainder of the season. The Mariners finished the season in second place five games behind the American League champion Houston Astros. If Seattle needs to supplement the bullpen the Mariners can do so without paying Lou Trivino $2.9 million for a projected WAR of 0.0 or 0.2. The Seattle Mariners may never advance to the postseason. Until they do.

The additions are Ken Giles, with projected 2022 WAR of 0.4 at ZiPS and 0.3 at Steamer, and Andres Munoz, with projected 2022 WAR of 0.1 at ZiPS and 0.5 at Steamer. Lou Trivino, with projected 2022 WAR of 0.2 at ZiPS and 0.0 at Steamer, won't cut it with his projected 2022 salary of $2.9 million. The Seattle Mariners may well miss the postseason again ... or not.

A year ago Thursday columnist Chad Jennings at The Athletic wrote about five free agents who could have filled a Red Sox need but signed elsewhere: reliever Liam Hendriks, infielder Ha-Seong Kim, lefthander Mike Minor, catcher James McCann and center fielder Michael Taylor: https://theathletic.com/2319123/2021/01/13/red-sox-mlb-free-agency/ Subscription required. Would any of those players made in difference in light of the players each would replace on the 2021 Red Sox roster? Jennings offered his retrospective on Wednesday: https://theathletic.com/3062234/2022/01/12/running-to-stand-still-ever-changing-red-sox-still-stand-on-familiar-ground/

It's confirmation that the Seattle Mariners don't need Lou Trivino. Teams need to identify under-the-radar relievers and then utilize advanced metrics to deploy those relievers properly. Last season the Mariners got a combined 6.2 bWAR (3.8 fWAR) from three relievers -- Casey Sadler, Drew Steckenrider and Paul Sewald -- who were acquired via a waiver claim in September 2020 and as two non-roster invitees in the 2020-21 offseason. In a recent interview with MLB Trade Rumors, Sewald discussed the defined roles of the relievers: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/live-chat-with-mariners-reliever-paul-sewald-12167.html Roles were not defined by inning but by the 1) precise matchups and 2) leverage situation. Seattle got the most from three relievers rescued from the scrap heap by using each reliever only in situations in which each reliever was most likely to succeed. Analytics had more to do with the transformation than any adjustment in mechanics. The succcess led to a 33-19 record in one-run games en route to 90 wins despite a negative 51 run differential. Most projections point to significant regression in 2022 although the Seattle bullpen is expected to add Ken Giles and Andres Munoz. The Mariners would likely pass on Lou Trivino.

ZiPS has issued its 2022 WAR projections for the Oakland Athletics, including a projected 0.2 WAR for Lou Trivino, indeed an improvement over Steamer's 2022 projection of 0.0 WAR for Trivino: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-oakland-athletics/

I can remember when only marquee college football games were televised. The first football game I had attended in years was a mundane matchup last October. The frequent commmercial breaks and resulting dead time made the game almost unbearably boring.

Jon Lester and Tim Lincecum, his high school rival from the Seattle area, had their peak years in 2008 and 2009 when Lester posted 6.1 and 6.2 bWAR while Lincecum posted 7.8 and 7.4 bWAR. Of course, Lester had the longer career, finishing with 44.3 bWAR to Lincecum's 19.9 bWAR.

Apparently minor league wRC+ is league-adjusted but not park-adjusted. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ben-clemens-fangraphs-chat-1-10-22/ Scroll down. Without a park adjustment, did Jarren Duran get a wRC+ boost playing his home games at Worcester's Polar Park?

Once in London I tried to attend a match in The Ashes, the famed cricket series between Australia and Great Britain, but the scalpers would not come down to this cheapskate's prices.

According to one source, football (soccer) worldwide has seven times as many fans as baseball has: https://sportsbrowser.net/most-popular-sports/ Even cricket has five times as many fans as baseball. This Portland resident could never envision Major League Baseball competing with soccer in the Rose City.

That is one factor as the Seattle Sounders or Portland Timbers have represented the Western Conference in the MLS Cup the past seven seasons while outdrawing the Seattle Mariners in per-game attendance most years.

In their shared seasons Major League Baseball already takes a back seat to Major League Soccer in the Pacific Northwest.

Depends on the translation: Koji: "You're going to Boston, right?" Seiya: "No ... I don't know about Boston ..." https://twitter.com/baseballcosmo/status/1479633266177376256?s=20

A clip from a Koji Uehara interview with Seiya Suzuki: https://twitter.com/baseballcosmo/status/1479633266177376256?s=20

Be a member of the 2022 Red Sox team: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-boston-red-sox-major-league-strategic-information-assistant/

Steamer is offered because it is one of the more recognized publically available projection services. Of the top projection services, only Steamer to date has offered WAR projections for Oakland players. Other projections are welcome. FWIW Lou Trivino may be the flip side of Michael Wacha in terms of their progression in the 2021 season. In 16 innings over his final 16 appearances, Trivino posted an 8.44 ERA (but 4.30 FIP) with a line of .292/.387/.446/.833. Over the same period Wacha posted a 2.88 ERA (3.28 FIP) with a line of .167/.217/.300/.517 in seven appearances, including six starts, covering 34.1 innings.

The 0.0 WAR projection for 2022 and the projected $1.1 million surplus value over three seasons are inconsistent. One or both are off; they can't both be accurate. WAR projections should be gathered from multiple sources, including ZiPS, but among publicly available services only Steamer has provided 2022 projections for the Oakland Athletics. The ZiPS and other projections are eagerly awaited. Each franchise likely has its own proprietary evaluation system, leaving the casual fan with the publicly available projections. Steamer | Glossary | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball sZymborski Projection System (ZiPS) | Glossary | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/marcels.shtml https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota-projections/

The problem with Baseball Trade Values is the volatility of valuations on individual players. The values can vary widely week to week. BTV obviously (and appropriately) gathers projections from multiple sources. Steamer's 2022 projection of 0.0 WAR for Lou Trivino alone should not produce a median surplus value of $1.1 million. Even that surplus value works out to less than $400,000 annually over Trivino's three remaining years of team control. Nevertheless BTV is an entertaining website.

The free agent market is filled with available relievers. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-position__sort_direction-0 So far the market has yielded minor league contracts to, among others, Darren O'Day (projected 2022 WAR of 0.1 in 26 games) and Jacob Barnes (projected 2022 WAR of 0.1 in 34 games). Milwaukee signed a $600,000 contract with Trevor Gott, who is projected to post 0.2 WAR in 54 games. Where does Lou Trivino's $2.9 million projected salary and 0.0 projected WAR fit in that market? We await Trivino's 2022 projection from ZiPS, which has yet to release its Oakland forecast.

The Mariners, Red Sox and all other teams passed on Nick Wittgren, another 30-year-old righthander who since the start of the 2018 season had posted a 3.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and and ERA+ of 119. Over the same period Lou Trivino posted a 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and an ERA+ of 113. Wittgren was projected with a 2022 salary of $2.8 million and a 0.2 WAR while Trivino is projected with a 2022 salary of $2.9 million and a 0.0 WAR. Steamer projects 19 Seattle pitchers with 2022 WAR above Trivino's projected 0.0 WAR, including 11 certain relievers. The list of Seattle relievers projected to match Trivino's 0.0 WAR fills pages: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=11&lg=all&players=0 The A's blogger noted Trivino's "disastrous three week stretch in August that doomed the A’s playoff hopes." https://whitecleatbeat.com/2022/01/02/lou-trivino-large-trade-market-oakland/ In a cold, dark offseason a baseball fan can become obsessed with a targeted player. Trivino might help a thin bullpen but many teams would pass on Trivino with his $2.9 million projected salary and 0.0 projected WAR.

Someone cared enough to respond. Have a blessed day.