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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    Steamer projects Sonny Gray ninth among all pitchers in 2026 WAR, ahead of Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Max Fried and Joe Ryan, among others: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764042313&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard
  2. harmony
    Despite being a cumulative stat, WAR does not adequately appreciate bulk. Over the past three years Sonny Gray has averaged 177 innings per season with an ERA of 3.63 and an ERA+ of 116. Only 10 pitchers have thrown more innings over that period. Those bulk pitchers provide value by saving a bullpen that overwise would be overtaxed by less durable starters.
  3. harmony
    The 2026 Red Sox got better today.
  4. harmony
    A Locked On Cubs podcaster proposed that the Cubs sign Rob Refsnyder to a one-year, $5 million contract: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUgAU6WUCxk&t=1137s ... at 13:40.
  5. harmony
    FWIW Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Ceddanne Rafaela a surplus value of $31 million and Nick Lodolo a surplus value of $30.8 million.
  6. harmony
    In a wide-ranging offseason plan, the Locked On Mariners podcasters proposed a trade of minor league outfielder Ricardo Cova to the Red Sox for infielder David Hamilton: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcK7lWfD7G0 ... at 44:50. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cova--000ric
  7. harmony
    Seattle has good homegrown starters in Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller but probably regrets trading away Freddy Peralta and Pablo Lopez.
  8. harmony
    Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo are projected to earn a combined $18.6 milion in 2026 when Luis Castillo is set to earn $24.15 million. Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans provide depth while Kade Anderson and Jurrangelo Cijntje wait in the wings.
  9. harmony
    Seattle right-hander Logan Gilbert was a common target in proposed Jarren Duran trades late last year: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?page=1&q=jarren+duran&posted=2024
  10. harmony
    After his trade to Seattle, Josh Naylor was spectacularly fun to watch on the Mariners' march to the AL West title and the postseason run that fell one game short of the World Series. But it was a small sample. BTW Ty France won a Gold Glove this year.😉
  11. harmony
    This Seattle fan isn't thrilled with the Josh Naylor signing but quickly settled into the acceptance stage. In Jerry Dipoto's 10 years in Seattle, the Mariners had never guaranteed more than $24 million to a free agent hitter.
  12. harmony
    According to Spotrac, this year the Red Sox ranked 10th in payroll: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/_/year/2025 The Red Sox ranked 18th in 2024: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/_/year/2024 ,,, and have not ranked in the Top 4 since 2019.
  13. harmony
    This poster saw Kris Bubic pitch once this year: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/royals-vs-giants/2025/05/19/777855/final/box
  14. harmony
    At one point Baseball Trade Values assigned Bobby Witt Jr. a surplus value of $200.7 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/player-value-timelines/bobby-witt-jr/5930
  15. harmony
    FanGraphs makes a reasonable projection of 39 home runs for Cal Raleigh in 2026. FanGraphs projects Dominic Canzone and Luke Raley with 21 and 20 home runs in 2026. I'd take the under on one of those projections but I just don't know which one.😉 Steamer has Canzone and Raley with 17 and 16 home runs in 2026: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=bat&pos=all&team=11&players=0&lg=all&z=1763178096&sortcol=4&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard
  16. harmony
    Those who understand probability tend to exploit those who don’t.
  17. harmony
    Projections tend to regress toward the mean not to “underproject” across the board.
  18. harmony
    So more than Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony combined (in 513 fewer plate appearances)?☹️
  19. harmony
    FWIW FanGraphs projects Marcelo Mayer with 15 home runs next year in 532 plate appearances: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/29668/stats?position=3B ... and Roman Anthony with 18 home runs in 623 plate appearances: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/roman-anthony/31812/stats?position=OF
  20. harmony
    Just Baseball podcast discusses proposed trade of Jarren Duran and Peyton Tolle for Ketel Marte:
  21. harmony
    ??? https://talksox.com/forums/topic/90239-red-sox-2025-season-reviewoffseason-preview-thread/page/25/#comment-3045050
  22. harmony
    That was last offseason when Luis Castillo had a no-trade clause that will expire this upcoming January 1. One Seattle offseason plan, shared to this forum on Sunday, included a trade of Castillo. https://talksox.com/forums/topic/90239-red-sox-2025-season-reviewoffseason-preview-thread/page/37/#comment-3047844
  23. harmony
    What if Seattle offered right-hander Luis Castillo for Triston Casas?😀😀😀 This year Castillo posted 2.6 fWAR over 180.2 innings while Casas posted a negative 0.6 fWAR in 29 games.
  24. harmony
    FWIW Baseball Trade Values apparently has upped Triston Casas' surplus value from 0 to $13.5 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=triston+casas&page=1
  25. harmony
    The 2026 ZiPS projections for Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto: MM 515 PA, 26 HR, .363 OBP, .454 SLG, 126 wRC+, 3.4 WAR KO 494 PA, 20 HR, .340 OBP, .451 SLG, 117 wRC+, 2.4 WAR https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-top-50-mlb-free-agents/ Scroll down to Nos. 12 and 21. Is Murakami worth the projected difference in contract length and AAV?
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