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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    What if the head-to-head tiebreaker in a three-way tie looks at the cumulative record of one team against the other two teams? The Red Sox are 9-8 against the Blue Jays and Mariners, the Blue Jays 9-8 against the Red Sox and Mariners, and the Mariners 6-8 against the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Under that scenario, the Blue Jays and Red Sox would secure postseason slots and the Mariners would be left out in the cold again.
  2. harmony
    The new tiebreaker rules can be confusing but if the season ended at this moment the Red Sox would likely fall short of the postseason. The Red Sox, Blue Jays and Mariners are currently tied for the second and third Wild Card slots. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head competition which gives the Red Sox the edge over the Mariners, the Mariners the edge over the Blue Jays and the Blue Jays the edge over the Red Sox. The second tiebreaker is intradivision record in which the Red Sox stand at 11-23, the Blue Jays at 16-18 and the Mariners at 20-16. Presumably the Mariners would secure the second Wild Card slot and the Blue Jays the third slot. The Mariners might receive a benefit in playing in a weaker division. Or not. In 20-game stretch after the All Star Break the Mariners play seven games against the Houston Astros and six games against the New York Yankees. It could be an interesting season.
  3. harmony
    Dennis Lin, the veteran Padre beat reporter at The Athletic, had this response in a June 28 mailbag: https://theathletic.com/3386941/2022/06/28/padres-mailbag-joe-musgrove-esteury-ruiz/?source=emp_shared_article
  4. harmony
    ZiPS projects Blake Snell with 50 innings the remainder of the 2022 season. A veteran starter such Tommy Milone who can effectively shuttle between Triple A and the parent club has value in these days of crowded active rosters.
  5. harmony
    If San Diego is looking to shed payroll the Padres are unlikely to be interested in the guaranteed 2023 salaries of $8.375 million and $3.5 million for Matt Barnes and Jake Diekman (not to mention the buyouts of their 2024 options). Veterans Tommy Milone and Justin Upton might be attractive to the Padres only because of their expiring contracts at league-minimum net salaries.
  6. harmony
    Tommy Milnne, who takes the mound tonight, would likely post fewer strikeouts and fewer walks than Blake Snell. ZiPS projects rest-of-season ERA of 3.72 for Snell and 3.82 for Milone.
  7. harmony
    The Mariners would likely top the proposed offer, which was accepted at Baseball Trade Values with more up votes than down votes: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-88834/ The accepted trade apparently is discussion-worthy.
  8. harmony
    Qualifying Offer | Glossary | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball It's complicated.
  9. harmony
    Entering tonight's game Trevor Story led the Red Sox with eight Defensive Runs Saved: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=12,d
  10. harmony
    The Padres may well receive better offers ... no argument there. But moving Eric Hosmer and his negative $34.5 million trade value would cost the Padres valuable prospects. Wil Myers and his negative $7.5 million trade value would be harder to move than Blake Snell and his $700,000 surplus trade value. Neither Hosmer nor Myers would yield an impressive return.
  11. harmony
    The Mariners could remove Justin Upton from the deal, which would give the Padres a wider edge in the trade, according to Baseball Trade Values: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-88834/ ... although the original proposal has received more thumbs-up than thumbs-down at BTV. The Padres probably would welcome a trade of Ha-Seong Kim, who has a negative $1.4 million trade value at Baseball Trade Values. The $33 million in financial commitments to Snell and Kim after this season impact the Padres and their luxury tax (although only $17 million would count against the threshold in 2023).
  12. harmony
    Baseball Trade Values assigns Blake Snell a surplus value of only $700,000 because of the $22.3 million remaining on his contract through 2023. BTV assigns Ha-Seong Kim a negative trade value of $1.4 million on a contract that runs through 2024. It all depends on how far the Padres will go to avoid the luxury tax: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/06/padres-trade-rumors-blake-snell-luxury-tax.html
  13. harmony
    From a June 28 mailbag with Dennis Lin, the Padre beat reporter for The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/3386941/2022/06/28/padres-mailbag-joe-musgrove-esteury-ruiz/?source=emp_shared_article No one suggests the proposed trade involves equal talent on each side. The point is that the Padres reportedly want to clear payroll and that the Mariners are in a position to take on payroll.
  14. harmony
    A negative-value trade proposal that does not involve the Red Sox: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-88834/
  15. harmony
    What about Seattle manager Scott Servais, whose team would be in the postseason for the first time since 2001 if the season ended today? Three weeks ago the Mariners fell 10 games under .500 at 29-39 after losing four of five at home to the lowly Los Angeles Angels. Seattle has since won 16 of 19 as the M's await the returns of Mitch Haniger, Kyle Lewis, Jesse Winker and Taylor Trammell. With an Opening Day payroll that ranked 22nd at about $94 million, the Mariners trail the Red Sox by two games with a projected easier schedule the remainder of the year.
  16. harmony
  17. harmony
    At .494, the sixth-easiest in the American League, according to FanGraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
  18. harmony
    Given this vapid exchange, you'd think middle schoolers were out for the summer. Who wants to discuss baseball?
  19. harmony
    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=30&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31
  20. harmony
    The Mariners should trail the Guardians by one game after tonight's game but needed a Red Sox win tonight to move within three games of the Rays for the final Wild Card berth.
  21. harmony
    The Red Sox scored 33 runs in a three-game road series May 24-26 against the Chicago White Sox (and still lost one game).
  22. harmony
    No worries. The Nationals are unlikely to trade Josh Bell for Brandon Walter, a former 26th-round draft pick who has pitched only 7.2 inning above Double A as the lefthander approaches his 26th birthday in September.
  23. harmony
    Ken Giles, who has surrendered one hit and no runs in four appearances since his activation June 20, was mentioned as a potential trade target in an Over the Monster podcast last month: https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/6/10/23162366/the-red-seat-podcast-early-trade-targets ZiPS projects Carlos Santana with a rest-of-season wRC+ of 113; to date Red Sox first basemen have posted a wRC+ of 81. Santana has played in 58 games this season and in June posted a cherry-picked .323/.450/.492/.942 line in 80 plate appearances.
  24. harmony
    Would the Red Sox have any interest in reliever Ken Giles or first baseman Carlos Santana of the Seattle Mariners?
  25. harmony
    Alejandro Kirk is a 23-year-old who had posted a .322/.411/.525/.936 (OPS+ 166) in 231 plate appearances this year before leading off the bottom of the ninth inning with a single tonight. In what universe is Kirk a "beer league softball player"?
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