harmony

James Paxton has only 754.2 MLB innings on his arm as the lefthander approaches his 34th birthday in November: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/paxtoja01.shtml

Another memory that should warm Red Sox fans during the chill of mid-October this year.

This poster is among the many Seattle fans of James Paxton but the soon-to-be 34-year-old lefthander has tossed only 21.2 MLB innings since 2019. 2019! We wish Paxton the best in life after baseball.

From Tuesday's MLB Trade Rumors chat with columnist Steve Adams: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-9-6-22-13884.html

Red Sox fans will always cherish fond memories of the World Series titles but since the start of the 2020 season the Tampa Bay Rays have the second-best cumulative regular-season record (behind the Dodgers) while the Red Sox in that period are in the bottom half among the 30 MLB teams. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=2,d

Therefore are the undue expectations and pressure of Red Sox fans at least partially to blame for that competitive disadvantage?

A Seattle forum discusses Mitch Haniger's pending free agency: https://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7177

The Seattle bullpen has benefited from a starting rotation that ranks in the top three in quality starts as Mariner relievers have tossed the fifth-fewest innings in MLB. The bullpen received late-season relief near the trade deadline when Luis Castillo was added to the already solid rotation of Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen and George Kirby. The M's relievers got an added day off last Tuesday when Kirby went five innings and Flexen posted the four-inning save. The Mariners hoped to repeat the Kirby/Flexen tag team on Sunday but Cleveland rain has apparently doused that plan.

The upstart Seattle Mariners control their entire effective bullpen for two more seasons with the exception of lefty Matthew Boyd, who made his Mariner debut last week with one impressive inning. Seattle may seek to re-sign Boyd, who was a 10-year-old Mariner fanatic in 2001 when the Seattle-area native attended a game in the M's last postseason appearance.

The AL East has dominated the AL West this year but the divisions had been evenly matched over the previous eight seasons. This year may be the outlier. Or not.

Free agent-to-be Rafael Montero! https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/montera01.shtml Montero has rebounded well this season after losing the closer's role in his brief stint with the Seattle Mariners the previous year.

The Red Sox may have wildly overperformed last year and wildly underperformed this year. Their true level is probably somewhere in between ... which makes for an interesting future.

Behind a paywall, columnist Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic offers a lengthy analysis of the Red Sox future: https://theathletic.com/3555165/2022/09/01/boston-red-sox-offseason-free-agency/

The Red Sox postseason chances have dropped below one percent at FanGraphs, FiveThirtyEight and Baseball Prospectus: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-mlb-predictions/ https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2022.shtml ... down from 61.3 percent preseason at FanGraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2022-04-06&dateDelta= The unexpected surfaces each MLB season.

If the season ended today the postseason would include two teams with bottom five Opening Day payrolls at less than $67 million (and another club in the bottom nine). Should those franchises be required to spend more?

Unfortunately Scott Boras and other agents need to deal with front offices looking for team-friendly deals. Negotiations cut both ways.

Thinking outside the box (to borrow a cliche): How could the Red Sox entice the Seattle Mariners to take on Trevor Story's contract, which Baseball Trade Values assigns a negative trade value of $40.3 million? https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/9499/ Last offseason the Mariners pursued Story, who reportedly wanted to play instead for a perennial winner: https://clutchpoints.com/mariners-rumors-the-reason-why-seattle-failed-to-sign-trevor-story-revealed/ Seattle second baseman Adam Frazier will be a free agent at the season's end while Abraham Toro, Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty might not be frontline players.

For sure but the Mariners aren't giving up three years of Ty France and five years of Cal Raleigh for one year of team control over Rafael Devers.

Indeed Aaron Judge homered Tuesday to draw even with Eugenio Suarez in home runs since the start of the 2018 season. At the hot corner, Rafael Devers, who has a negative 3.4 UZR/150 and a negative 2 DRS in 942 innings at third base this year, is not replacing Suarez, who has a positive 2.9 UZR/150 and a positive 5 DRS in 983 innings at third base. Devers at best would be relegated to DH duties.

The Seattle Mariners go nowhere near that trade. FWIW this year Rafael Devers has posted 3.9 bWAR while Seattle third baseman Eugenio Suarez has posted 3.7 bWAR. Devers remains under team control for one year working off his 2022 salary of $11.2 million while Suarez is under contract for two more seasons at $11 million annually with a $15 million team option, or $2 million buyout, for 2025. Cal Raleigh, a 25-year-old who leads all American League catchers in home runs, is best known for his handling of the formidable Seattle pitching staff. Trivia: Who, despite his flaws, leads Major League Baseball in home runs since the start of the 2018 season?

Boston Globe beat reporter Alex Speier asks: What does the Julio Rodriguez extension mean for the future of the Red Sox? https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/08/26/sports/red-sox-start-considering-long-term-deals-with-younger-players/ ... noting that the Red Sox failed to lock up Mookie Betts and Rafael Devers early in their careers. As as side note under the new CBA, because Rodriguez made the Opening Day roster the Mariners will receive an additional draft pick if Rodriguez finishes in the top three in Rookie of the Year voting.

The comparative minor league stats of Evan White, the 17th pick of the 2017 draft out of college, and Triston Casas, the 26th pick of the 2018 draft out of high school: EW 256 G, 1106 PA, .289/.357/.472/.829 TC 279 G, 1188 PA, .267/.373/.482/.854 Of course, the first basemen played in different minor league environments. White posted a wRC+, is adjusted for environment, of 132 in 400 plate appearances as a 23-year-old at Double A while Casas posted a wRC+ of 142 in 329 plate appearances as a 21-year-old at Double A. Skipping Triple A, White made his MLB debut at 24 years, 89 days, while Casas is now at 22 years, 225 days. Casas should be able to exceed the wRC+ of 52 that White has posted in 306 MLB plate appearances but fans should be prepared for a wide range of outcomes.

Seattle's comp for Miguel Bleis is outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez, who is two months older than Bleis but who has already advanced to Single A: Mariners Top Prospects | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball Red Sox Top Prospects | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gonzal009gab https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bleis-000mig https://www.fangraphs.com/players/gabriel-gonzalez/sa3015723/stats?position=OF https://www.fangraphs.com/players/miguel-bleis/sa3016834/stats?position=OF

Next Sunday I hope to see the Philadelphia Phillies and three days later the Atlanta Braves, NL East clubs that are among the hottest in MLB. Scouting potential World Series opponents for the Seattle Mariners. Lighten up.

Many franchises have a young prospect such as Miguel Bleis whose stock has risen this year. Projections remain difficult for distant 18-year-olds.