harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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The salary of a player on a team's 40-man roster will count against the team (or teams) paying that salary. I doubt any team would trade for Rusney Castillo at his full salary only to place Castillo outside its 40-man roster (thereby avoiding luxury-tax implications).
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That $5 million would count against the Red Sox for luxury tax purposes. Rusney Castillo is in transactional purgatory.
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The Red Sox might not be able to absorb the impact Rusney Castillo's $10.3 million AAV would have for luxury-tax purposes if he is activated on to the 40-man roster as a fourth outfielder.
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A FanRag columnist predicts the Red Sox will sign third baseman Trevor Plouffe to a two-year, $14 million contract: http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/finding-home-10-best-remaining-free-agents/ That would take up much of the space between the current payroll and the luxury tax threshold.
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Those salaries do not count against the luxury tax threshold because each player was outrighted off the 40-man roster after clearing waivers: http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/6/20/11979314/red-sox-rusney-castillo-waivers-trade-budget
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Last offseason the Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners acquired closers in Craig Kimbrel and Steve Cishek (the latter was a free agent who did not cost the Mariners a prospect package). Kimbrel retains his closer's role while Cishek lost his gig to rookie Edwin Diaz in August. Kimbrel and Cishek posted these 2016 lines: CK 57 G, 53 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9, 14.1 K/9, 135 ERA+, 0.9 bWAR, 1.2 fWAR SC 62 G, 64 IP, 2.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 144 ERA+, 1.6 bWAR, 0.9 fWAR FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Kimbrel with 2017 WAR of 1.6 and 1.0, respectively, while projecting Cishek with 2017 WAR of 0.9 and 0.6. Diaz gets 2017 WAR projections of 1.8 and 1.2. Kimbrel has a 2017 salary of $13 million with a $13 million team option, or $1 million buyout, for 2018. Cishek is owed $6 million in the final year of his contract with performance bonuses that start with 25 games finished. Diaz will earn the league minimum and has six years of team control.
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http://sports.yahoo.com/news/hot-stove-digest-could-the-red-sox-consider-reacquiring-clay-buchholz-012530953.html http://calltothepen.com/2017/01/01/boston-red-sox-clay-buchholz-return/ http://insider.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=15606
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Happy New Year! May our favorite teams bring us joy (and minimal suffering) in 2017.
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As a side note, I've had brief discussions on a Phillies forum about the current trade value of Clay Buchholz. I initiated the discussion after a Philadelphia blogger mentioned Seattle outfielder Seth Smith as a potential trade target: http://www.thegoodphight.com/2016/12/23/14060030/are-there-any-more-ways-to-improve-2017-phillies-roster I initially maintained that Josh Tobias defined the current trade value of Buchholz. An insightful poster, however, noted that the Phillies would probably trade Buchholz only for a far more highly regarded prospect. The Phillies, unlike the Red Sox, are in a position to pay much of the Buchholz salary in a trade because the Phils are not up against the luxury tax threshold. Buchholz at a 2017 cost of $5 million is worth far more than Buchholz at his entire 2017 salary of $13.5 million. https://www.philliesphans.com/t/phillies-2016-2017-offseason-discussion/43074/875 I again was educated by venturing on to the message board of another MLB club.
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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/poll-free-agent-relievers.html
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http://www.csnne.com/video/marc-bertrand-i-think-price-miserable-boston-2017-wont-change
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2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
harmony replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
cFIP reading: http://www.hardballtimes.com/fip-in-context/ http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=cFIP -
2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
harmony replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Red Sox reportedly interested in Trevor Plouffe: http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2016/12/red_sox_consider_deal_for_utility_player_trevor_plouffe#.WGH3TPdWrw8.twitter -
The 2016 Red Sox, who scored 100+ more runs than any other team, scored fewer runs than the 2015 Toronto Blue Jays, who scored 127 more runs than their closest rival. The 2016 Blue Jays finished ninth in runs scored without losing a David Ortiz-caliber hitter from the previous season. Regression -- and plain randomness -- come into play for most clubs,
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Realistically comical.
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Steamer now projects Clay Buchholz with a 2017 WAR of 1.6 in 18 starts: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P
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Seattle lefthander Ariel Miranda nearly falls into that category, giving up two or fewer earned runs in 45 percent of his starts and three or fewer earned runs in 90 percent of his starts. The Mariners are looking to add a starter to move Miranda to the bullpen.
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Clay Buchholz started Game 2 this year and was the Opening Day starter for the Red Sox in Philadelphia the previous year. Still the trade made a ton of sense.
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I have no reason to believe the Red Sox took anything less than the best offer for Clay Buchholz. The Sox mostly likely have been shopping Buchholz around in the past year.
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I give Dave Dombrowski kudos for this trade. I questioned whether any trade partner would take on the entire $13.5 million owed Clay Buchholz.
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https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/10/09/what-red-sox-kept-john-lackey-and-jon-lester/UFlbt7toI3HEZdPhpFeU0K/story.html No mention of a threat to forego playing for the Red Sox at minimum salary.
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If Roenis Elias and his league-minimum salary have surplus value, perhaps a package with Clay Buchholz would make the latter's $13.5 million salary more palatable to a trade partner. Of course a trade partner would be required to devote two roster slots to Elias and Buchholz.
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To elaborate, Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for starters and 65 innings for relievers, projected 2017 WAR of 1.5 in 200 innings for Roenis Elias and 0.1 in 65 innings for Fernando Abad: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d
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What are the trade values of two lefthanders who each posted a negative 0.2 fWAR for the Red Sox last season? http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 A trade partner would need to think either was worthy of a roster slot, including Fernando Abad at a projected salary of $2 million.
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Visual updates on Pablo Sandoval: http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/12/pablo_sandoval_posts_instagram.html#incart_river_index