harmony

http://www.overthemonster.com/2017/1/11/14237054/red-sox-miss-out-on-trevor-plouffe

As a practical matter, it doesn't make a ton of sense for team to designate a pitcher as its No. 5 starter. A club needs three or four pitchers who can take the mound every fifth day but beyond that a mix is the typical result, whether planned or not. Because of days off in the first week of the season the so-called fifth starter often is not needed until mid-April. If I'm not mistaken, only one team -- the 2003 Seattle Mariners -- made it through an entire season with only a five-man rotation. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2003.shtml That Seattle team won 93 games but missed the postseason in those days before a second Wild Card slot.

Are rowing and rhythmic gymnastics sports? My children have exposed me to previously unfamiliar athletic endeavors.

After my initial surprise with the Mitch Moreland signing, I've come to understand the decision. The Red Sox should be run-producers and an upgrade in defense was more important. The budgetary difference between signing Moreland at $5.5 million and trading Clay Buchholz at $13.5 million for Seth Smith at $7 million was $1.5 million (less whatever Josh Tobias earns). For what it's worth, FanGraphs Depth Charts project Moreland with a 2017 WAR of 0.7 in 525 plate appearances and Smith with a 2017 WAR of 1.5 in 490 plate appearances: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#ALL http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2#ALL

Seth Smith has a career wRC+ of 112 after posting 113 in 2015 and 110 in 2016 with a 2017 projection of 113. No steep decline in his hitting (although Seattle fans would contend his defense has fallen off steeply). A steep decline would be Mitch Moreland's wRC+ drop from 117 in 2015 to 87 in 2016 although Moreland is projected to rebound to a 2017 wRC+ of 96. Most projections take into account the aging curve for these players separated by only three years in age.

Nor is it unreasonable to expect a big uptick from Seth Smith as he plays half his games at Camden Yards.

Seth Smith has a career OPS+ of 112 with a projected 2017 wRC+ of 113, while Mitch Moreland has a career OPS+ of 100 with a projected 2017 wRC+ of 96. That's quite a gap.

I thought the Red Sox might like the high on-base percentage of Seth Smith, who sees a ton of pitches, in a platoon at DH with Chris Young. The platoon would have required that Hanley Ramirez be pretty much a full-time first baseman. I initially was surprised that the Sox went with the low on-base percentage of Mitch Moreland although I appreciate Moreland's vastly superior defensive skills. I am still obsessed with Seattle's continuing search for another starting pitcher. Drew Smyly, Alex Cobb, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Matt Garza, Patrick Corbin and Michael Wacha are rumored trade targets with free agents Jason Hammel, Tyson Ross, Brett Anderson and others still available.

Mickey Lolich was MVP of the 1968 World Series (and a graduate of my daughters' high school).

I'm not a huge fan of Clay Buchholz, but I would have preferred one year of Buchholz to one year of Yovani Gallardo. Since the Taijuan Walker trade I've been obsessed with how the Mariners would fill out their starting rotation. I considered scores of trade targets and probably floated a dozen trade proposals on various websites. Gallardo and Baltimore teammate Ubaldo Jimenez never made my cut of starters Seattle should pursue (although Wade Miley did). Perhaps I rely too heavily on 2017 WAR projections that have Gallardo at 0.9, Seth Smith at 1.2 and Buchholz at 1.6. For the time being, Gallardo will replace traded Seattle starter Nate Karns, whose 2017 WAR projection of 1.7 was optimistic. On Friday, the Mariners dealt Karns for Kansas City outfielder Jarrod Dyson. I disliked each trade viewed in isolation but the combination might make sense: Seth Smith Nate Karns for Jarrod Dyson Yovani Gallardo The Mariners hope to improve their struggling pitching by upgrading the outfield defense with Dyson, Mitch Haniger and Leonys Martin. Seattle reportedly remains in the market for another veteran starting pitcher. GM Jerry Dipoto now has made 34 trades in his 15 months at the helm.

This tea drinker prefers the smell of coffee to the taste of coffee, but I'll sip an occasional java. Except on my current diet, I'm an ice cream fiend whose favorite flavor by far is coffee or its variations.

One source does not show the Red Sox as the American League favorites, much less prohibitive favorites: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3 https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/prohibitive On the right column.

A White Sox blogger offers a different third-base solution for the San Francisco Giants: http://southsideshowdown.com/2017/01/04/white-sox-potential-trade-todd-frazier/

The salary of a player on a team's 40-man roster will count against the team (or teams) paying that salary. I doubt any team would trade for Rusney Castillo at his full salary only to place Castillo outside its 40-man roster (thereby avoiding luxury-tax implications).

That $5 million would count against the Red Sox for luxury tax purposes. Rusney Castillo is in transactional purgatory.

The Red Sox might not be able to absorb the impact Rusney Castillo's $10.3 million AAV would have for luxury-tax purposes if he is activated on to the 40-man roster as a fourth outfielder.

A FanRag columnist predicts the Red Sox will sign third baseman Trevor Plouffe to a two-year, $14 million contract: http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/finding-home-10-best-remaining-free-agents/ That would take up much of the space between the current payroll and the luxury tax threshold.

Those salaries do not count against the luxury tax threshold because each player was outrighted off the 40-man roster after clearing waivers: http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/6/20/11979314/red-sox-rusney-castillo-waivers-trade-budget

Last offseason the Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners acquired closers in Craig Kimbrel and Steve Cishek (the latter was a free agent who did not cost the Mariners a prospect package). Kimbrel retains his closer's role while Cishek lost his gig to rookie Edwin Diaz in August. Kimbrel and Cishek posted these 2016 lines: CK 57 G, 53 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9, 14.1 K/9, 135 ERA+, 0.9 bWAR, 1.2 fWAR SC 62 G, 64 IP, 2.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 10.7 K/9, 144 ERA+, 1.6 bWAR, 0.9 fWAR FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Kimbrel with 2017 WAR of 1.6 and 1.0, respectively, while projecting Cishek with 2017 WAR of 0.9 and 0.6. Diaz gets 2017 WAR projections of 1.8 and 1.2. Kimbrel has a 2017 salary of $13 million with a $13 million team option, or $1 million buyout, for 2018. Cishek is owed $6 million in the final year of his contract with performance bonuses that start with 25 games finished. Diaz will earn the league minimum and has six years of team control.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/hot-stove-digest-could-the-red-sox-consider-reacquiring-clay-buchholz-012530953.html http://calltothepen.com/2017/01/01/boston-red-sox-clay-buchholz-return/ http://insider.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=15606

Happy New Year! May our favorite teams bring us joy (and minimal suffering) in 2017.

As a side note, I've had brief discussions on a Phillies forum about the current trade value of Clay Buchholz. I initiated the discussion after a Philadelphia blogger mentioned Seattle outfielder Seth Smith as a potential trade target: http://www.thegoodphight.com/2016/12/23/14060030/are-there-any-more-ways-to-improve-2017-phillies-roster I initially maintained that Josh Tobias defined the current trade value of Buchholz. An insightful poster, however, noted that the Phillies would probably trade Buchholz only for a far more highly regarded prospect. The Phillies, unlike the Red Sox, are in a position to pay much of the Buchholz salary in a trade because the Phils are not up against the luxury tax threshold. Buchholz at a 2017 cost of $5 million is worth far more than Buchholz at his entire 2017 salary of $13.5 million. https://www.philliesphans.com/t/phillies-2016-2017-offseason-discussion/43074/875 I again was educated by venturing on to the message board of another MLB club.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/poll-free-agent-relievers.html

http://www.csnne.com/video/marc-bertrand-i-think-price-miserable-boston-2017-wont-change

cFIP reading: http://www.hardballtimes.com/fip-in-context/ http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=cFIP