harmony

An interesting analysis of surplus value of each team's Baseball America Top 100 prospects: http://theprocessreport.net/the-top-100s-are-coming-the-top-100s-are-coming/

Beyond the Box Score at SB Nation offered more on Mike Zunino: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/2/10/14558114/mike-zunino-mariners-catcher-breakout-plate-discipline

I joined this thread's discussion of Blake Swihart's role with a comparison to Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who never played for the Mariners. I brought Mike Zunino into the discussion on a positive note to compare Zunino's age 25 season (split last year between Triple A and MLB) with Swihart's upcoming age 25 season (likely to be split between Triple A and MLB). Peace be with you. And I'm off to see the Celtics play tonight.

Perhaps the defensive metrics help explain the contrasting projections for Mike Zunino and Blake Swihart.

I wonder whether the projections attempt to quantify a catcher's ability to handle a pitching staff. Despite his sub-.200 batting average, Seattle kept trotting Mike Zunino out to catch in 2014 and 2015 because of the high scores Zunino receives from the pitching staff. Blake Swihart, on the other hand, lost his starting gig after six games last year because, according to some, of his questionable ability to handle the Red Sox staff. http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2017/01/red_sox_mailbag_can_blake_swihart_win_the_starting_catching http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/mariners-2017-spring-position-preview-is-this-the-year-that-mike-zunino-can-put-it-all-together/ On a Mariner team that finished second to the Red Sox in wRC+ last year, the ability to handle a pitching staff might be more important than hitting potential. Still, it was an eye-opener to read that ZiPS projects 2017 OPS+ of 95 for Zunino and only 80 for Swihart. The projections probably consider minor league numbers as well as last year's MLB statistics. I hope Mike Zunino and Blake Swihart have successful years ... and careers. http://m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/215367144/blake-swihart-aims-to-climb-boston-depth-chart/ http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article131475344.html

Where is the 40 percent strikeout rate? No need to embellish Mike Zunino's high strikeout rate ... I would never embellish the stats of a Red Sox player or any other player.

Will do. I have yet to find 2017 WAR projections that place Blake Swihart ahead of Mike Zunino*. Perhaps someone can help me. I hope Blake Swihart has a long productive MLB career despite my reservations. * despite Zunino's unembellished projected strikeout rate of 29-32 percent and projected batting average of around .221

Good catch on Blake Swihart's brief non-catching debut in 2011. In 2012 Swihart played 93 games, including 66 as a catcher, at Single A Greenville while Zunino played 44 games, including 31 as a catcher, between Low A Everett and Double A Jackson (skipping Single A Clinton and High A High Desert), posting a combined .360/.447/.689/1.137 line in 190 plate appearances. Of course, Swihart is one year younger than Zunino.

Blake Swihart, who never played in college after being drafted out of high school, has played six professional seasons (one season more than Mike Zunino, who in 2012 culminated a three-year college career with the College Player of the Year Award won by Andrew Benintendi in 2015). Swihart played nothing but catcher in his first five professional seasons: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=swihar000bla

With career OPS+ and wRC+ of 90 and 92, and lower projections, Blake Swihart might have enough bat to stay behind the plate but I question whether Swihart has the bat to be a starter at any other position.

Mike Zunino was rushed as well by a Seattle organization notorious for poor player development, making his MLB debut at age 22 years, 79 days, in contrast to Swihart's debut at 23 years, 29 days (Jarrod Saltamacchia made his MLB debut on his 22nd birthday). It's not as if a single rogue projection is down on Blake Swihart. ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts are all bearish on Swihart, ranking him behind Zunino in the near future, including significant disparity in defensive abilities. Indeed, projections are often wrong. Swihart could be better -- or worse -- than the current projections.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia has career OPS+ and wRC+ of 93 and 92, respectively, while Blake Swihart has career OPS+ and wRC+ of 90 and 92. Saltalamacchia has a career fWAR of 9.5 as he approaches his 32nd birthday in May. Swihart already has accumulated 1.9 fWAR as he approaches his 25th birthday in April. It should be interesting to see who finishes with a higher career WAR total. I suspect the Red Sox would be happy if Swihart's age 25 season approximates the age 25 season of Seattle's Mike Zunino, another catcher who peaked at No. 17 on the Baseball America prospect rankings. Last year Zunino posted a wRC+ of 138 in 327 plate appearances at Triple A before posting a wRC+ of 115 in 192 plate appearances at the MLB level. Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for most catchers but 600 plate appearances for Swihart, projects 2017 WAR of 2.4 for Zunino and 1.4 for Swihart. http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=11&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0

From a 2007 Baseball America scouting report on Jarrod Saltalamacchia: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2007/263051.html

ZiPS projects Blake Swihart, who has a career OPS+ of 90, with a 2017 OPS+ of 80: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/ FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer each project Swihart, who has a career wRC+ of 92, with 2017 wRC+ of 87: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

ZiPS projects a 2017 WAR of a negative 0.1 in 342 plate appearances for Blake Swihart in his age 25 season: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/ FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Swihart with 2017 WAR of 0.2 and 0.1, respectively, in only 16 games: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/ Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for most catchers but 600 plate appearances for Swihart, projects Swihart with a 2017 WAR of 1.4: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players= In his age 25 season, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, another switch-hitting catcher once ranked a Top 18 prospect, posted an WAR of 0.1 in 12 games: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5557&position=C Swihart may be the second coming of Saltalamacchia ... or not.

You got somethin' against lawyers?

PECOTA projects the Red Sox as AL East champs with 90 wins (and the Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros as divisional champs with 92 and 93 wins, respectively): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

Back in the day I frequently compared Mike Olt and Will Middlebrooks, slugging righthand-hitting third basemen born 13 days apart: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oltmi01.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/middlwi01.shtml

Depends on the market. Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects Xander Bogarts with the sixth-highest WAR among shortstops in 2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d Four of the five shortstops ranked ahead of Bogaerts are younger than Bogaerts.

Pete Abraham has sent mixed signals: https://www.facebook.com/peter.abraham.globe/photos/pb.200090780020182.-2207520000.1486172620./1773737602655484/?type=3&theater

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects these 2017 lines for Mitch Moreland and Sam Travis: MM 71 R, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 2 SB, .255/.319/.433/.752, wRC+ 95, 0.7 WAR ST 70 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 11 SB, .272/.326/.417/.743, wRC+ 95, 0.7 WAR http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players= ZiPS projects 2017 WAR of 0.5 in 427 plate appearances for Moreland and 0.4 in 368 plate appearances for Travis (and OPS+ of 90 for Moreland and 97 for Travis). http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

From today's FanGraphs chat with columnist Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-2317/#more-244245

I think that may have been Kyle Martin, not Carson Smith: https://www.facebook.com/peter.abraham.globe/videos/1773297922699452/

MLB.com columnist Phil Rogers lists the Red Sox as the most improved team: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/214169470/which-mlb-team-improved-most-this-offseason/

The Red Sox have two good defensive catchers but should not expect great hitting from any of the three projected catchers. ZiPS projects 2017 OPS+ of 81 for Sandy Leon, 80 for Blake Swihart and 72 for Christian Vazquez: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/ FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project 2017 wRC+ of 87 for Swihart, 79 for Vazquez and 74 for Leon. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9774&position=C http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5273&position=C Last year all catchers had an average OPS+ of 90 and average wRC+ of 87. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2016 http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0