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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. In the sizable sample since the Red Sox won the 2013 World Series, the Mariners have a cumulative record of 288-277 while the Sox have a record of 285-278 (excluding the three postseason losses in 2016).
  2. I believe the Seattle Mariners are 36-12 when they score four or more runs but 3-28 when they don't: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2017-schedule-scores.shtml
  3. To be fair, Mike Trout had an MLB career line of .220/.281/.390/.672 in 135 plate appearances when the Los Angeles Angels signed Albert Pujols on December 8, 2011.
  4. This season the Red Sox rank sixth among 30 MLB team in batting average with runners in scoring position: https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/batting-average ... after ranking first by a wide margin last year.
  5. To be precise, Drew Pomeranz has a 2017 salary of $4.45 million.
  6. I suspect the Red Sox would be on the hook for 2019 option after a release because his new team would be obligated only for the league minimum. This assumes the Red Sox release Ramirez, no team picks up his contract, he signs for the league minimum with another team and the new club gives Ramirez enough plate appearances to vest the 2019 option. An unlikely scenario but possible.
  7. I apparently picked the wrong week to bench Salvador Perez in my fantasy league.
  8. Those are the only teams I checked. There may well be others.
  9. The Houston Astros have nine position players, who have played at least 45 games each this year, with fWAR above replacement level: http://www.fangraphs.com/teams/astros The Washington National might be even better: http://www.fangraphs.com/teams/nationals The Seattle Mariners have nine position players with fWAR of at least 1.0 this year: http://www.fangraphs.com/teams/mariners ... but are below replacement level at first base.
  10. For years I would gain 20 pounds in even-numbered years and lose 20 pounds in odd-number years ... until this year. I had been trail running four mornings a week and doing yoga, light lifting and stair-climber three mornings a week until I had three toenails removed nine weeks ago. Since then I had only ridden my bicycle occasionally until going on a Father's Day run with my daughters this morning. I am sore. Deteriorating hips should limit my future running. I'm on a wait list for a Learn to Row class and may resume lap swimming when my toes heal. I'm 23 pounds heavier now than I was when I ran my 15th and final marathon shortly after my 60th birthday in October 2015. Wishing everyone good health.
  11. San Francisco third baseman Eduardo Nunez shares a birthday (June 15, 1986) with his until-recently Bay Area counterpart, Trevor Plouffe, whom the Oakland A's traded to the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday. Like Nunez, Plouffe is a versatile third baseman who will be a free agent at the season's end. Nunez has a 2017 salary of $4.2 million and Plouffe a 2017 salary of $5.25 million. Nunez has been valued at 3.1 fWAR in 618 career games, including 1.1 fWAR in 63 games this year. Plouffe has been valued at 5.0 fWAR in 781 career games, including a negative 0.2 fWAR this year. Nunez has a UZR/150 of a negative 12.6 in 1,712.1 career innings at third base, including a negative 12.0 in 303 innings this year. Plouffe has a UZR/150 of a negative 4.5 in 5,105/1 career innings at third base, including a negative 1.4 in 418 innings this year. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6848&position=3B/SS http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7462&position=3B The Rays acquired Plouffe for cash or a player to be named. http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/rays-journal-veteran-trevor-plouffe-excited-for-fresh-start-with-rays/2327661
  12. A team with a runner on second and no outs will average 1.0762 runs in that inning. A team with a runner on third and no outs will average 1.3045 runs in that inning. A team with no runners on and one out will average 0.2572 runs in that inning. Under those circumstances, the break-even point for stealing third base is an 81 percent success rate because the runner was already in scoring position. Rickey Henderson, baseball's all-time steals leader, had a career success rate of 80.8 percent. Fellow Hall of Famers Lou Brock and Tim Raines came in at 75.3 percent and 84.7 percent, respectively. The stats come from the chapter "Stolen Bases: Crime Only Pays If You Never Get Caught" in the 2017 book Smart Baseball: The Story Behind the Old Stats That Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones That Are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball by ESPN senior baseball writer Keith Law.
  13. I was in attendance in 1980 when the Missouri Tigers knocked the Irish out of March Madness with an 87-84 second-round overtime win in Lincoln, Nebraska: http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/1980-03-09-missouri.html The game was filled with players who went on to NBA careers. In the other second-round game at Lincoln that day, eventual 1980 national champ Louisville also needed an overtime to topple Kansas State 71-69: http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/1980-03-09-kansas-state.html
  14. Keith Law's condescending attitude gives sabermetrics a bad name. Law's pompousness obscures his otherwise valid data. I have a theory about the resistance to advanced baseball metrics, which often challenge conventional wisdom. For many of us, that conventional baseball wisdom was passed down to us by our fathers. Any challenge to that wisdom can be interpreted, at least subconsciously, as an insult to our father. Hence, the sometimes emotional reaction. At least that's my theory ... On the other hand, my father, who died in 1988, likely would have welcomed advanced baseball metrics because he remained interested in learning until the day he died.
  15. I recommend the book Smart Baseball* by sanctimonious ESPN senior baseball writer Keith Law. https://www.harpercollins.com/9780062490223/smart-baseball This evening I read the chapter titled "Bulfinch's Baseball Mythology: Clutch Hitters, Lineup Protection, and Other Things That Don't Exist." * subtitled The Story Behind the Old Stats That Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones That Are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball
  16. Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Blake Swihart with a rest-of-season wRC+ of 82, in line with their preseason projections for Swihart: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C A wRC+ of 82 might be adequate for a defensively competent catcher or a defensive ace at another position. I question whether Swihart is either.
  17. http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/evan-drellich-gives-play-play-what-happened-boston-red-sox-david-price http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox
  18. Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Chart project Blake Swihart with rest-of-season MLB wRC+ of 82 each. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C The ROS projections are in line with Swihart's preseason projections. ZiPS apparently has no ROS projection for Swihart. ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Christian Vazquez with ROS wRC+ of 76, 80 and 78, and Sandy Leon with 73, 75 and 74. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9774&position=C http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5273&position=C
  19. What would be a reasonable extension for Boston shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who has two years remaining before free agency, in light of the reported five-year, $70 million extension for Seattle shortstop Jean Segura, who would have had only one more season before free agency? Since the start of the 2016 season the 24-year-old Bogaerts has posted 6.9 fWAR and 5.1 bWAR in 209 games while the 27-year-old Segura has posted 6.4 fWAR and 6.8 bWAR in 196 games. In 2016 Segura played second base, which gets less WAR credit than shortstop. Segura, who led the National League with 203 hits last year, is currently on the disabled list for the second time this season. Would the Red Sox even consider an extension for Bogaerts with Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley as other extension candidates?
  20. http://www.yourdictionary.com/re-aggravating ... and scroll down on this one: http://www.dictionary.com/browse/reaggravate
  21. I sometimes sense that a certain poster is "on my ass" but I accept that as the price of my participation on a public forum. Best regards.
  22. Fred Lynn was a nine-time All Star who won four Gold Gloves: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnfr01.shtml
  23. It's means nothing, but Seattle has three rookie outfielders -- Mitch Haniger, Ben Gamel and Guillermo Heredia -- who have posted higher fWAR than Andrew Benintendi this year (in fewer games): http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Of course Yankee outfielder Aaron Judge leads the way among rookies.
  24. One exception would be the 2003 Seattle Mariners whose five projected starters never missed a start. That year the M's won 93 games but fell short of a postseason berth: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2003.shtml
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