harmony

MLB Trade Rumors projects Jose Abreu with a 2018 arbitration salary of $17.9 million: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2018.html

The rare analysis that borders on objective. Nice work.

Albert Pujols. Adrian Gonzalez and Miguel Cabrera could be available in trade ...

In his "dip" year Josh Donaldson posted 5 fWAR, valued at $39.6 million: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5038&position=3B#value As points of reference, Mookie Betts led the Red Sox hitters with 5.3 fWAR followed by Xander Bogaerts with 3.2 fWAR and Jackie Bradley Jr. with 2.3 fWAR. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=3&rost=&age=&filter=&players= Heath Hembree, Deven Marrero and Michael Chavis have limited trade value. A poster at BP Boston suggested a trade of Bradley, Eduardo Rodriguez and "someone like Jalen Beeks" for two years of Miami outfielder Marcell Ozuna: http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/11/what-comes-next/

I suspect the Toronto Blue Jays would receive better offers for one year of Josh Donaldson, who has posted 35.2 fWAR, valued at more than $275 million, over the past five seasons. I doubt the Red Sox would take on two 2018 salaries likely in excess of $20 million each for J.D. Martinez and Donaldson. The Blue Jay third baseman comes with one arbitration year of team control working off his 2017 salary of $17 million.

Brian Johnson seems to fit the Seattle MO: a post-prospect starter/long reliever who can go through an opponent's lineup once or twice in a game. The Mariners may employ a tag-team approach by which no pitcher goes more than four innings in a game. The nearly 27-year-old Johnson could be reunited with college battery-mate Mike Zunino, who like Johnson was taken out of the University of Florida in the first round of the 2012 draft: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2012&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round The finest game of Johnson's MLB career came in a shutout of the Mariners on May 27 of this year: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201705270.shtml

MLB Trade Rumors has posted a poll on how much Eric Hosmer will earn in free agency this offseason: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/poll-how-much-will-eric-hosmer-earn-in-free-agency.html#comments

I hope Blake Swihart has a productive career but I had guarded expectations even before his injury. I have drawn comparisons of Swihart, who peaked at No. 17 on Baseball America's prospect chart in 2015, to catchers Travis D'Arnaud (who peaked at No. 17 in 2012), Devin Mesoraco (who peaked at No. 16 in 2012) and Mike Zunino (who peaked at No. 17 in 2013). Those catchers have experienced varying degrees of success, including Mesoraco's All Star appearance in 2014, but collectively they demonstrate of uncertain futures of former top prospects. Swihart's marginal bat may be good enough to play at catcher but his defensive skills behind the plate may be lacking. Swihart's trade value has fallen behind that of backup Mets catcher Kevin Plawecki, who was BA's 63rd-ranked prospect the year Swihart ranked No. 16. Plawecki, a superior defender who is a year older than Swihart, has posted wRC+ of 120 and 128 the last two seasons at Triple A and a wRC+ of 106 in 118 MLB plate appearances this year. Red Sox fans praised Swihart for his bat when he posted a wRC+ of 93 in his 2015 rookie season. Swihart has a sub-100 wRC+ in 483 career plate appearances at Triple A. On this forum before the season started I wrote that Swihart's performance in the first four months of 2017 would determine whether he has more, less or the same trade value as a same-aged Jarrod Saltalamacchia had in July 2010 when the Rangers traded the switch-hitting catcher to the Red Sox for spare parts. I also wrote that the Red Sox would be pleased if Swihart's age 25 season this year resembled Zunino's age 25 season in 2016. Swihart, like Zunino the year before, was a former 17th-ranked top prospect who was starting his age 25 at Triple A after a stint as a starting MLB catcher. Unfortunately Swihart regressed in his age 25 season while Zunino advanced. Let's hope Swihart rebounds from his disappointing 2017 season.

Comparing three-time Gold Glove winner Eric Hosmer (DOB 10/24/89) with Sam Travis (DOB 8/27/93) is more far-fetched than comparing Jackie Bradley (DOB 4/19/90) with Yankee outfield prospect Jake Cave (DOB 12/4/92). In the International League this year the now 24-year-old Travis posted a wRC+ of 107 in 342 plate appearances while the 24-year-old Cave posted a wRC+ of 156 in 297 plate appearances. Cave is considered the superior defender. As a 21-year-old in 2011 Hosmer posted a wRC+ of 187 in 118 plate appearances at Triple A and a wRC+ of 113 in 563 plate appearances at the MLB level. Hosmer peaked at No. 8 in 2011 on Baseball America's preseason prospect list while Bradley peaked at No. 31 in 2013. Neither Travis nor Cave has cracked a BA Top 100 prospect list. I suspect Hosmer would be significantly better than Travis.

I ran across this scouting report of a Red Sox prospect ranked No. 15 in the organization five years ago: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/boston-red-sox-top-15-prospects-2012-13/

David Price was 30 years, three months old in December 2015 when the Red Sox signed the lefthander to a seven-year, $217 million contract.

From Wednesday's chat with MLB Trade Rumors columnist Jason Martinez: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-with-jason-martinez-october-11-2017-2637.html Of course that's not the real-life J.D. Martinez.

I would not be disappointed if John Farrell has the post-Red Sox success that Terry Francona has enjoyed.

Nearly five years ago the eight-year Manny Ramirez contract was valued at $210.6 million, adjusted for inflation: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/66784564/inflation-affects-mlb-contract-value Inflation over the past five seasons should push the Ramirez value passed the current amount owed Giancarlo Stanton (whose lock-in terms should counter inflation over the next 10 years).

That Giancarlo Stanton is a Manny Ramirez-caliber player at the same age?

What is the wRC+ over/under for Rafael Devers in 2018 after the rookie posted an wRC+ of 111 in 240 plate appearances this year? Andrew Benintendi posted a wRC+ of 122 in 118 plate appearances as a rookie in 2016 and a wRC+ of 103 in 658 plate appearances this year.

Giancarlo Stanton, who turns 28 years old next month, has 10 years and $295 million remaining on his contract. Manny Ramirez was 28 years old in December 2000 when the Red Sox signed the slugger to an eight-year, $160 million contract coming off his injury-plagued season. Stanton's career line and the latter's line when the Red Sox signed Ramirez: GS 4120 PA, .268/.360/.554/.914, OPS+ 146. 34.1 fWAR, 35.1 bWAR MR 4095 PA, .313/.407/.592/.998, OPS+ 152, 30.7 fWAR, 29.9 bWAR Just food for thought.

From MLB.com: http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

Click on the links. Twelve teams had at least one individual first baseman with at least 30 home runs; 18 teams did not. Eleven teams failed to get at least 30 home runs from the first-base position; 19 teams got at least 30 home runs from the first-base position.

Eleven teams -- including the Red Sox -- failed to get at least 30 home runs from the first base position: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?request=1&year=2017&lg=MLB&stat=HR

Twelve teams got at least 30 home runs from a first baseman this year: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,d

The $19.4 million figure accounts for only five of the 15 Red Sox players eligible for arbitration. No team has more arbitration-eligible players than the Red Sox, according to the MLBTR lists.

Looking ahead MLB Trade Rumors has projected 2018 arbitration salaries for all teams: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2018.html ... including the Red Sox: Red Sox (15) •Robbie Ross (5.099) – $2.0MM •Joe Kelly (5.029) – $3.6MM •Drew Pomeranz (5.013) – $9.1MM •Josh Rutledge (4.090) – $700K •Tyler Thornburg (4.057) – $2.1MM •Brock Holt (4.052) – $2.0MM •Xander Bogaerts (4.042) – $7.6MM •Jackie Bradley (3.150) – $5.9MM •Sandy Leon (3.149) – $2.1MM •Steven Wright (3.089) – $1.2MM •Mookie Betts (3.070) – $8.2MM •Brandon Workman (3.036) – $900K •Christian Vazquez (3.031) – $1.5MM •Carson Smith (3.028) – $1.1MM •Eduardo Rodriguez (2.130) – $2.7MM The combined projected salary increases for Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, Drew Pomeranz and Eduardo Rodriguez total about $19.4 million.

I hope Rafael Devers does not become the victim of unreasonably high expectations. Devers has made an impressive debut with the bat.

With two more years of team control, the Red Sox should welcome back a 25-year-old shortstop who has posted 4.4, 4.9 and 3.2 fWAR the last three seasons. Xander Bogaerts may never be an elite player but should earn his keep the next two seasons.