harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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I suspect Carlos Santana's camp has learned from Edwin Encarnacion's failed gamble. Encarnacion reportedly turned down Toronto's early four-year, $80 million offer before signing a three-year, $60 million deal (with a fourth-year option) in late December with the Cleveland Guardians. https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/12/22/edwin-encarnacion-agrees-to-3-year-deal-in-cleveland-reports.html
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For another comp, here are Carlos Santana and Victor Martinez (at the time Martinez signed a four-year, $50 million contract with Detroit in November 2010 a month before his 32nd birthday): CS 1116 G, 4782 PA, .249/.365/.445/.810, OPS+ 121 VM 1004 G, 4224 PA, .300/.369/.469/.838, OPS+ 121 Santana, who turns 32 in April, and Martinez are switch-hitters who came up as catchers with the Cleveland Guardians before converting to first basemen/designated hitters. In November 2014 Martinez signed a four-year, $68 million extension with the Tigers. Santana this year ranked seventh among first basemen in the Fielding Bible voting, two slots behind Mitch Moreland: http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp
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As Giancarlo Stanton, J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas become too expensive for many teams the demand (and cost) for Carlos Santana should go up. I suspect Santana will top the three years and $45 million projected at MLB Trade Rumors: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html A player such as Santana who most agree is undervalued is no longer undervalued. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/ Three years ago Victor Martinez, another switch-hitting converted catcher, got four years and $68 million just shy of his 36th birthday after posting 14.4 fWAR the five previous seasons. Santana, who turns 32 in April, has posted 15.0 fWAR over the past five years.
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Huh?
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FanGraphs editor Dave Cameron offers his analysis of 50 free agent contracts: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/
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An ESPN survey has Giancarlo Stanton going to the Cardinals and J.D. Martinez to the Red Sox: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21385913/hot-stove-survey-stanton-st-louis-otani-bronx-insiders-weigh-winter
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I have an unhealthy addiction to the Hot Stove season.
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I can only guess that Manny Ramirez was a poor defender while Giancarlo Stanton is a good defender, and that the Ramirez numbers were inflated by baseball's era of high offensive production.
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Good advice.
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Some posters take responsibility for their mistakes (because even a negligent misstatement of fact undermines credibility).
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Thanks for pointing that out. I've made the correction.
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I posted these numbers earlier, but here are the comparative numbers for Manny Ramirez when the Red Sox signed him at age 28 and the current numbers for Giancarlo Stanton, who just turned 28: MR 4095 PA, .313/.407/.592/.998, 152 OPS+, 29.9 bWAR, 30.7 fWAR GS 4120 PA, .268/.360/.554/.917, 146 OPS+, 35.1 bWAR, 34.1 fWAR
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An apparent Marlins fan disagrees: "Ive said for a while the Red Sox are a great partner. Give us one of Devers/Benintendi, Rodriguez, and a prospect." http://soflamarlins.com/showthread.php?7723-Marlins-2017-2018-Offseason-Discussion-Thread/page12 Scroll down.
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An SB Nation offseason simulation came up this this proposal: Traded Giancarlo Stanton to the Boston Red Sox for Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Brian Johnson, and Blake Swihart. https://www.fishstripes.com/2017/11/8/16625136/the-2017-sbnation-offseason-simulation-marlins-apocalypse
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According to MLB Trade Rumors, if the Red Sox sign a free agent who declined a qualifying offer the Sox would lose their second-highest draft pick and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500,000: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/which-draft-picks-each-team-would-lose-by-signing-a-qualified-free-agent.html The teams that lose qualifying-offer free agents get compensation: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/examining-draft-pick-compensation-for-the-6-teams-that-could-lose-qualified-free-agents.html
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A deliberate misstatement of fact undercuts credibility more than a negligent misstatement of fact. The issue may be whether there was any credibility to be undercut.
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http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/fish-bytes/article184112096.html
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New York Post baseball writer Joel Sherman suggests this three-way trade involving Giancarlo Stanton (but not involving the Red Sox): http://nypost.com/2017/11/11/trades-the-yankees-mets-and-jeter-could-make-this-week/
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Your criticism of this journalist got off on the wrong foot when you got his name wrong (a mistake you repeated in the closing).
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MassLive columnist Christopher Smith provides a detailed breakdown of the Red Sox budget for 2018, including each player's projected salary and payroll impact: http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/11/boston_red_sox_40-man_roster_c.html#incart_river_index
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I should not have written that because I am unsure what, if anything, the Mariners want after Mike Zunino, their 26-year-old first-string catcher, posted 3.6 fWAR this year (and spent just enough time in the minors to give Seattle an additional year of team control). http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13265&position=C At any rate, I doubt the Mariners are interested in Blake Swihart, whose early 2018 projection is not encouraging: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C Seattle's presumptive backup catcher is Mike Marjama: https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/8/14/16116578/meet-mike-marjama-new-mariner-catcher-prospect-andy-mckay
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MLB.com columnist Richard Justice predicts that Eric Hosmer will be the only top free agent to sign with the Red Sox: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/261106902/predicting-landing-spots-for-mlb-free-agents/
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Miami righthander Edinson Volquez, who is owed $13 million next season, might not pitch in 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/fish-bytes/article182894796.html Scroll down. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/20220788/edinson-volquez-jt-riddle-miami-marlins-miss-rest-year-injuries
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Seattle's Mike Marjama, a 28-year-old catcher who will earn the league minimum next season, is projected to produce about the same as 28-year-old Boston catcher Sandy Leon, who is projected to earn $2.1 million in 2018. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12594&position=C http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5273&position=C Heath Hembree would be another cost-controlled arm in the Seattle bullpen: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=20&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=11&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
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Everybody has an offseason plan, including this one passed on by a Kansas City blogger: https://www.royalsreview.com/2017/11/8/16625230/the-sb-nation-baseball-off-season-simulation-project-recap