harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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FanGraphs columnist Craig Edwards estimates the payroll space for each MLB team: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-estimate-of-every-teams-payroll-room/
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The surplus value of two years of Jose Abreu will likely outweigh the negative value of one year of James Shields at $11 million. The proposal may work if the Red Sox keep Hanley Ramirez and his $22 million salary out of the trade.
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The White Sox owe James Shields, who posted a negative 0.2 fWAR this year, $11 million in 2018 with the Padres paying the balance of his $21 million salary and the $2 million buyout of the 2019 option. http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/chicago-white-sox/ The Red Sox owe Hanley Ramirez, who posted a negative 0.4 fWAR this year, $22 million in 2018. However, Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 0.2 in 29 starts for Shields and 1.0 in 574 plate appearances for Ramirez. Because that many plate appearances for Ramirez would vest the $22 million option for 2019, the Ramirez contract may well be worse.
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$500,000. There is debate on how much international money Seattle has. The Mariners received $750,000 from the Cardinals in the Mike Leake trade last August.
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Thyago Vieira was the pitcher who threw harder than Michael Kopech in the 2016 Arizona Fall League. https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/thyago-vieira-seattle-mariners-103-mph-relief-prospect/
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Most players just want to be treated with respect and dignity in good times and in bad times. Some markets are better than others.
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It takes only two bidders to jack up the price.
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Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto has already identified his worst trade: https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/swing-and-miss-jerry-dipoto-may-have-whiffed-when-mariners-traded-chris-taylor-to-dodgers-but-thats-baseball/
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I saw Ryon Healy go 3-for-3 with a homer, a walk and four RBI for the Oregon Ducks against Stanford in 2013 the day before I ran the Eugene Marathon (and immediately following the Ducks' spring football game that Saturday). http://www.goducks.com/boxscore.aspx?id=5212&path=baseball I was pulling for Stanford ... and I'm still not a fan of the trade.
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Third time in the last 368 days that the Seattle Mariners have traded for an Oakland Athletics first baseman (after Danny Valencia and Yonder Alonso). I'm not a fan of the trade.
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When numerous teams enter the bidding.
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In a world where 40 players (not counting this year's free agents) are guaranteed to earn at least $20 million next year -- including David Price and four others at $30 million or above -- the contract of 28-year-old Giancarlo Stanton is not an albatross. Twenty-four clubs have at least one contract at $20 million or above. Only the Rays, Padres, Pirates, Guardians, Phillies and Athletics lack a player at $20 million or above (although the White Sox are not paying most of James Shields' $21 million salary): http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/ As salaries continue to spiral Stanton's contract could still provide value in its waning year even if his production declines.
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This week Carlos Santana was named Wilson Defensive Player of the Year for first basemen: http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2017/11/cleveland_indians_carlos_santa_18.html
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I suspect Carlos Santana's camp has learned from Edwin Encarnacion's failed gamble. Encarnacion reportedly turned down Toronto's early four-year, $80 million offer before signing a three-year, $60 million deal (with a fourth-year option) in late December with the Cleveland Guardians. https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/12/22/edwin-encarnacion-agrees-to-3-year-deal-in-cleveland-reports.html
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For another comp, here are Carlos Santana and Victor Martinez (at the time Martinez signed a four-year, $50 million contract with Detroit in November 2010 a month before his 32nd birthday): CS 1116 G, 4782 PA, .249/.365/.445/.810, OPS+ 121 VM 1004 G, 4224 PA, .300/.369/.469/.838, OPS+ 121 Santana, who turns 32 in April, and Martinez are switch-hitters who came up as catchers with the Cleveland Guardians before converting to first basemen/designated hitters. In November 2014 Martinez signed a four-year, $68 million extension with the Tigers. Santana this year ranked seventh among first basemen in the Fielding Bible voting, two slots behind Mitch Moreland: http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp
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As Giancarlo Stanton, J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas become too expensive for many teams the demand (and cost) for Carlos Santana should go up. I suspect Santana will top the three years and $45 million projected at MLB Trade Rumors: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html A player such as Santana who most agree is undervalued is no longer undervalued. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/ Three years ago Victor Martinez, another switch-hitting converted catcher, got four years and $68 million just shy of his 36th birthday after posting 14.4 fWAR the five previous seasons. Santana, who turns 32 in April, has posted 15.0 fWAR over the past five years.
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Huh?
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FanGraphs editor Dave Cameron offers his analysis of 50 free agent contracts: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/
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An ESPN survey has Giancarlo Stanton going to the Cardinals and J.D. Martinez to the Red Sox: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21385913/hot-stove-survey-stanton-st-louis-otani-bronx-insiders-weigh-winter
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I have an unhealthy addiction to the Hot Stove season.
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I can only guess that Manny Ramirez was a poor defender while Giancarlo Stanton is a good defender, and that the Ramirez numbers were inflated by baseball's era of high offensive production.
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Good advice.
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Some posters take responsibility for their mistakes (because even a negligent misstatement of fact undermines credibility).
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Thanks for pointing that out. I've made the correction.
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I posted these numbers earlier, but here are the comparative numbers for Manny Ramirez when the Red Sox signed him at age 28 and the current numbers for Giancarlo Stanton, who just turned 28: MR 4095 PA, .313/.407/.592/.998, 152 OPS+, 29.9 bWAR, 30.7 fWAR GS 4120 PA, .268/.360/.554/.917, 146 OPS+, 35.1 bWAR, 34.1 fWAR