harmony

Three years of Mookie Betts, who has posted 4.9, 7.5 and 5.3 fWAR the last three years, won't land four years of Kris Bryant, who has posted 6.5, 8.3 and 6.7 fWAR the last three years.

Bingo.

Kris Bryant ranked fourth on FanGraphs trade value list in July: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-1-to-10/ Andrew Benintendi ranked No. 26 on the list. Bryant remains under team control for four more seasons after posting 6.5, 8.3 and 6.7 fWAR the last three seasons. Benintendi, who is two-and-a-half years younger, remains under team control for five seasons after posting 2.2 fWAR this year. I highly doubt the Cubs would have any interest in one-for-one swap.

Michael Chavis was the lone Red Sox prospect selected to play in the Fall Stars Game despite posting a modest .269/.316/.423/.739 line in 52 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League: https://www.overthemonster.com/2017/10/31/16580212/michael-chavis-arizona-fall-league-all-star-game http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&t=p_pbp&pid=656308 Peoria Javelina teammate Eric Filia was left off the Fall Stars roster despite posting a .410/.500/.641/1.141 line in 39 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League.

The Miami Herald reports that the Marlins have Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Martin Prado on the trade block: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article181739531.html

The Astros' first overall picks were Carlos Correa in 2012, Mark Appel in 2013 and Brady Aiken in 2014. Other highest picks for Houston included Delino DeShields No. 8 in 2010, George Springer No. 11 in 2011 and Alex Bregman No. 2 in 2015.

I don't see a match for Nelson Cruz, who has only one year and $14 million remaining on his contract after the 37-year-old designated hitter posted 12.8 fWAR, valued at $102.4 million, in the first three years of his four-year, $57 million contract with Seattle. I've suggested a trade of Hanley Ramirez and Jackie Bradley Jr. to Seattle for reliever Nick Vincent, but that does not address the Red Sox need for a power hitter. However, the deal would free up funds for the Sox to pursue J.D. Martinez and other sluggers.

This Sons of Sam Horn column includes this paragraph: http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/majorleaguebaseball/al-east/boston-red-sox/giancarlo-stanton-newest-red-sox/ That's not my understanding of how the AAV is calculated for luxury tax purposes.

http://www.weei.com/media/audio-channel/danny-picard-could-red-sox-make-trade-bryce-harper-10-28-17 https://www.fishstripes.com/2017/10/18/16485278/the-miami-marlins-and-boston-red-sox-are-destined-trade-partners-stanton-ozuna-yelich-jackie-bradley https://bosoxinjection.com/2017/10/15/potential-red-sox-trade-target-jose-abreu/ http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2017/10/jennings_red_sox_offseason_shopping_complicated_by_expected_2018_free_agent https://www.boston.com/sports/sports-q/2017/08/15/should-the-red-sox-try-to-trade-for-giancarlo-stanton http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2017/10/silverman_red_sox_need_power_but_not_at_giancarlo_stantons_price https://www.bostonglobe.com/lifestyle/names/2017/10/26/jimmy-kimmel-asked-giancarlo-stanton-like-play-for-red-sox/sGoNwPdgkNbW6nb3ygo0kL/story.html http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/10/boston_red_sox_potential_trade.html

Another blogger calls for a trade of reliever Carson Smith, first baseman Sam Travis and third baseman Michael Chavis to Detroit for relievers Shane Greene and Alex Wilson, utility player Andrew Romine and outfielder Alex Presley: https://motorcitybengals.com/2017/10/25/detroit-tigers-make-trade-boston-red-sox/ The blogger contends the Tigers should make that trade. Well, duh. I'm not sure why the Red Sox would further deplete their farm system for that return.

That's possible, although the Red Sox may be sellers as well with Craig Kimbrel, Drew Pomeranz, Joe Kelly, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Robbie Ross (and Rick Porcello, David Price and Hanley Ramirez if a market develops for them).

With a solid core of young players in Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario, the Minnesota Twins will be looking to overtake the Red Sox next year after advancing to the postseason this season. I don't see the Twins trading away their veterans. In contrast with the Red Sox, the Twins have prospects ranked No. 26, No. 29, No. 63 and No. 70 at MLB Prospect Watch: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects

Austin Maddox was taken in the same 2012 MLB draft as his University of Florida teammates: Brian Johnson and Mike Zunino.

Whit Merrifield tied Jackie Bradley Jr. for the team lead in home runs on the 2010 University of South Carolina baseball team: http://www.gamecocksonline.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2009-2010/teamcume.html#TEAM.GMS Merrifield was the only Gamecock to start all 70 games that season.

The SoxProspects summation on righthanded reliever Austin Maddox: http://www.soxprospects.com/players/maddox-austin.htm

Austin Maddox is a 26-year-old prospect ranked 21st and 28th in a mediocre Red Sox farm system, according to SoxProspects and MLB Prospect Watch: http://www.soxprospects.com/moreprospects.htm http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=bos https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=maddox001aus Maddox averaged 4.7 walks per nine innings this year in 49.1 minor league innings.

A Kansas City blogger suggests a trade of Whit Merrrifield, Kelvim Herrera and Ryan Buchter for Michael Chavis, Brock Holt and Austin Maddox: https://kingsofkauffman.com/2017/10/29/kansas-city-royals-trade-whit-merrifield-boston-red-sox/ The nearly 29-year-old Merrifield, who posted 3.1 fWAR this year while leading the American League in stolen bases, remains under team control for five years after playing 132 of his 145 games at second base this season. The nearly 28-year-old Herrera, a two-time All Star reliever, remains under team control for one season at a hefty projected arbitration salary of $8.3 million. Buchter, a nearly 31-year-old reliever, remains under team control for five seasons. I suspect the KC blogger seriously overstates the trade value of Chavis and Holt. The Red Sox would likely do that deal in a heartbeat.

Mike Schmidt probably deserved the Gold Glove for his defense alone early in his career but that established defensive reputation carried over during his later defensive decline. Using Total Zone*, the defensive metric applied to that era, Schmidt earned the Gold Glove with high scores in the mid-1970s: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1011586&position=3B#fielding ... but even his Gold Glove recognition was delayed a year or two: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/awards/aw_gg3b.shtml All told, the 10-time Gold Glove winner deserved his reputation. * Total Zone explained: https://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/tz-tzl/

I doubt the Marlins will trade Giancarlo Stanton for the Red Sox spare parts. I question the current trade value of 19-year-old Jason Groome because he is along way from being MLB-ready. Compare the Single A Greenville lines of Groome and Henry Owens, another 6-foot-6, 220-pound lefthander who, like Groome, was ranked among baseball's Top 50 prospects: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=groome000jas https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=owens-002hen Owens, who skipped Low A Lowell, pitched at Greenville when he was a year older than Groome was at that level.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, two-time All Star second baseman Jason Kipnis of the Cleveland Guardians may be available but the 30-year-old has dealt with his own injury issues: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/poll-what-will-the-Guardians-do-with-jason-kipnis.html Kipnis has two years and $30.5 million remaining on his contract.

Then don't assume Edinson Volquez and Brad Ziegler will have the same value they had last year. Red Sox fans often point to 2016 as Hanley Ramirez's productive season but Ramirez's value never has exceeded his $22 million annual salary after posting fWAR valued at a negative $13.9 million, $21.5 million and a negative $3.3 million the last three years: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8001&position=SS#value Even with the positive fWAR in 2016, over the past three years Ramirez has ranked 223rd of 232 qualified hitters in fWAR, keeping company with the likes of Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp, Jayson Werth and Prince Fielder: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&page=8_30

The only way the Red Sox could trade Hanley Ramirez would be to package him with a player or players with surplus value. A trade for an equally bad contract (if the Sox could find one) would negate the payroll savings. A Seattle blogger* has suggested a trade of Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr. for solid Mariner reliever Nick Vincent but the trade of Castillo's contract would have no luxury tax implications because Castillo is not on the 40-man roster. To provide the Sox luxury tax relief, I would suggest Hanley Ramirez, three years of Jackie Bradley Jr. and six years of potential Rule 5 casualty Brian Johnson for Vincent, who posted 1.8 fWAR this year: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7555&position=P * https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/10/25/16487712/mariners-red-sox-potential-trade-2018-bullpen-outfield

Brad Ziegler, whose fWAR was valued at $3.8 million this year, is owed $9 million in 2018. Edinson Volquez, whose fWAR was valued at $7.7 million this year, is owed $13 million in 2018. Hanley Ramirez, whose fWAR was valued at a negative $3.3 million this year, is owed $22 million 2018 (with the threat of the $22 million option vesting for 2019). The theoretical $11.5 million in combined negative value does not cancel out the $25.3 million in negative value.

This perplexed Mariner fan does not see Seattle as a likely destination for Giancarlo Stanton. The Mariners have some money to spend with only $92.6 million committed to 2018 after a 2017 payroll of about $155 million: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FPmVBnzTPHvWfnpemP2Dt_CRyg7Mf12wW62BpgNjxIY/edit#gid=0 However, the core of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, Jean Segura, Mike Zunino, James Paxton and Felix Hernandez is not particularly young as they enter their age 35, 37, 30, 28, 27, 29 and 32 seasons. Seattle lacks an ace as an aging Hernandez has lost that status and injuries have slowed James Paxton's ascent to that status. Over the past two seasons the Mariner hitters have ranked second in the American League with a wRC+ of 105: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d Meanwhile, Seattle pitchers ranked 12th in the league in fWAR this year: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18478-Stanton-or-Votto/page11 ... and 11th in ERA+ at 96: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2017-standard-pitching.shtml According to MLB Prospect Watch, Seattle has only one prospect in the Top 100, outfielder Kyle Lewis at No. 41: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects The Mariners are more likely to pursue Shohei Ohtani than Giancarlo Stanton.

The full list: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d&page=1_30